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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
My official betting thread
- Thread starter brett128
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- #129
Lol there's a lot of hatred getting around here. Is it envy? For all the gobbing off, I don't see anyone else putting their picks out for everyone to see.
This is my overall record from day 1. I haven't been sitting on my ass since I started betting, these models have improved greatly since I started. I don't think there's anyone here that has that record over 1000+ plays.
16-22 is a very small sample. For the record, the Z score between my expected and actual wins is -1.73 on this 38 play sample (well within bounds of chance).
I still don't see anyone taking up my season ATS handicapping offer.
This is my overall record from day 1. I haven't been sitting on my ass since I started betting, these models have improved greatly since I started. I don't think there's anyone here that has that record over 1000+ plays.
16-22 is a very small sample. For the record, the Z score between my expected and actual wins is -1.73 on this 38 play sample (well within bounds of chance).
I still don't see anyone taking up my season ATS handicapping offer.
i am jelly you aren't limited
he raises a good point
- Thread starter
- #132
Melbourne Storm -12 @ 57% (Centrebet) $1.90
I've parlayed it with Hawthorn SU to take it at $1.92. This game shouldn't be up on the board as a money line. Win % is 99.77% (fair odds should be $1.002). $1.01 is generous.
I'm down on this now before the spread moves over 2 tries. Despite some SOO soreness for some of these players, this bet is a standout for the NRL this round.
I've parlayed it with Hawthorn SU to take it at $1.92. This game shouldn't be up on the board as a money line. Win % is 99.77% (fair odds should be $1.002). $1.01 is generous.
I'm down on this now before the spread moves over 2 tries. Despite some SOO soreness for some of these players, this bet is a standout for the NRL this round.
Agreed. No wonder this board is so slow sometimes. I thought the whole idea of this forum was to discuss punting, he is doing that, showing his bets, and due to a below expectation start over a small sample group he is just copping crap . Easy to do from the cheap seats.
Maybe just STFU snipers or take him up on his offer for an amount that is within your bankroll.
No ******** wonder private boards flourish while this one turns to ****.
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
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What he could have said:
"Hey all, I'm new around here, but I'm a pretty keen sports investor. I've done a load of study into statistical models, and believe I may have an edge that will allow me to win long term. I'm keen to discuss sports betting, and will be putting my picks out there for discussion. I'm not perfect, and looking to learn"
What he actually said:
"You guys are dead shits. All you do are multis. I'm a far superior bettor with an almost perfect model, which gives me optimal bankroll growth. I will accept no criticism, nor discuss them rationally, instead you will just have to take my word that my model says so, and I'm far more educated than you, with a greater grasp of sports investing."
There's a way to interact with people anonymously that doesn't make you come off like a condescending twat, and brett chose not to go that way.
"Hey all, I'm new around here, but I'm a pretty keen sports investor. I've done a load of study into statistical models, and believe I may have an edge that will allow me to win long term. I'm keen to discuss sports betting, and will be putting my picks out there for discussion. I'm not perfect, and looking to learn"
What he actually said:
"You guys are dead shits. All you do are multis. I'm a far superior bettor with an almost perfect model, which gives me optimal bankroll growth. I will accept no criticism, nor discuss them rationally, instead you will just have to take my word that my model says so, and I'm far more educated than you, with a greater grasp of sports investing."
There's a way to interact with people anonymously that doesn't make you come off like a condescending twat, and brett chose not to go that way.
sticky
Rookie
- Nov 2, 2009
- 22
- 4
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
lol I'll give you as much size as you want at $1.01
he doesn't discuss anything, he preaches, his first post just lined up half the board and said they're clueless.
but if you don't bow to his knowledge you get the "10K BET GOGOGO SQUARE SQUARE LOL" treatment.
tying up money for 6 months to have a shitfight with some anonymous person is a flawless idea.
I am not denying that he can come across abrasive and arrogant and that he only discloses a very small amount of information, but he is at least contributing something, something! To a board that gets a little quieter every day.
1. Learning to filter through the crap and find the important information that can be of benefit is something I think all of us here have had to do. Whether it be research on a specific game or reading through someone else's post that is written in a strange manner.
2. (and far more importantly) Taking pot shots at one who may well deserve them doesn't contribute to this board positively at all, it is just 'internet tough guy' talk that I am sure we are all above. Point out once that he is coming across rough, if he doesn't change leave the thread be. I was just hoping people could consider the possibility that there are people reading that might have great input that may not be as likely to post after seeing cheap little shots like in this thread.
1. Learning to filter through the crap and find the important information that can be of benefit is something I think all of us here have had to do. Whether it be research on a specific game or reading through someone else's post that is written in a strange manner.
2. (and far more importantly) Taking pot shots at one who may well deserve them doesn't contribute to this board positively at all, it is just 'internet tough guy' talk that I am sure we are all above. Point out once that he is coming across rough, if he doesn't change leave the thread be. I was just hoping people could consider the possibility that there are people reading that might have great input that may not be as likely to post after seeing cheap little shots like in this thread.
Maybe that is really the problem, Terrortime and Tants both made their own threads and copped a bit of abuse also.
I for one wouldn't mind scrolling to the 2nd or 3rd page to check new threads compared to having the top 6-8 threads having a few new posts each day. (yes, I have far too much spare time at work)
asanque
Premium Platinum
The more threads the merrier imo 
I always like to see people test their systems against the bookie.
I still post the occasional tip now and then but kudos to anyone that has the discipline to do it for every bet weekly (and record the results).
I always like to see people test their systems against the bookie.
I still post the occasional tip now and then but kudos to anyone that has the discipline to do it for every bet weekly (and record the results).
Princess Wafflewaffle
Debutant
- Jun 30, 2012
- 83
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I have never discussed the correctness of your picks just the errors I perceive in your system. If it works for you great but I just don't see it being effective over the long term. As I have said earlier I am happy to post my picks here or in another thread. I do not have a system though, just researching games and getting a feel for teams. I bet units and will bet for value such as my pick earlier that the kangaroos odds were better h2h than ATS. If you would like me to post my pics let me know but I won't get into a pissing contest. Just will make my picks and discuss why I like them. I only bet AFL though and I will bet NRL totals or multi Nrl teas with with the start into other bets as odd boosters. Often the $1.10 you get backing melb storm or others at home with the 12.5 start is free money when tied to a $1.91 pick. Best of luck
- Thread starter
- #142
Lol?
What someone like Joe Square here thinks is 'intuitive'; the fact that 'surely no value can be had at such short odds!?' is the very reason why this segment of the market offers value in the first place. This type of 'intuition' forms the basis of market inefficiencies.
The book also does not want to over expose itself to a situation where it needs to ever pay out a large square bet at long odds. So the book doesn't equally partition its juice over the two sides of the bet. It knows Joe Square couldn't care less about whether he gets a big football dog for $20 or $45, just as long as he can see that he will be 'collecting' at double digits odds, he's happy. So the books allocates more of its juice to the long side of the event.
Get yourself an odds database. Mine goes back 12 years for AFL. Look at heavy home favourites (say <= $1.10). You'll find 4% ROI just knowing this information about the game. Now, one needs to assume that this angle will hold going forward in time. When Australian sport betting markets are growing with ever increasing amounts of squares distorting the market (like our 'lol'ing friend here) you know this is going to pay for a long time.
Yeah I know I sound like an absolute prick here, but I wasn't the one that "'lol'ed" and thought I'd sound like a hero, but that actually showed how little he understood about sports betting.
Early days of the Betfair forum (8+ years ago), we'd catch up 2-3 times a year at pubs in central Melbourne to put faces to forum names, to talk shop without keyboards in the way, to network, to learn from others, to exchange ideas and perhaps form partnerships/syndicates - and mostly to have a rollicking good night (and morning).
From trivia nights at the Pint on Punt in Richmond, to a piss-up hosted for/paid by Betfair's then CEO and Key Account Manager at Elephant & Wheelbarrow in St Kilda, to drinks at Village Belle in St Kilda, Karaoke nights in Carlton and MV racecourse, dinners at Shark Fin Inn in town. People would come from country Victoria (Maryborough, Lakes Entrance, Mornington Peninsula etc. as well as Tasmania) just to meet with and drink with like-minded souls. Forumites, pro punters, on-course bookies, Betfair reps, corporates etc - a great melting pot.
Whilst these nights are down to once a year these days, we found it weeded out the posers, the wannabes, the big-noters, the keyboard warriors, the fakes, the crooks, the scam artists etc. If you've been attending these nights for almost a decade, you're fairly solid - and you've built up a fair network around you over time.
I wonder what effect (if any) a forum drinks night would have if organised here?
From trivia nights at the Pint on Punt in Richmond, to a piss-up hosted for/paid by Betfair's then CEO and Key Account Manager at Elephant & Wheelbarrow in St Kilda, to drinks at Village Belle in St Kilda, Karaoke nights in Carlton and MV racecourse, dinners at Shark Fin Inn in town. People would come from country Victoria (Maryborough, Lakes Entrance, Mornington Peninsula etc. as well as Tasmania) just to meet with and drink with like-minded souls. Forumites, pro punters, on-course bookies, Betfair reps, corporates etc - a great melting pot.
Whilst these nights are down to once a year these days, we found it weeded out the posers, the wannabes, the big-noters, the keyboard warriors, the fakes, the crooks, the scam artists etc. If you've been attending these nights for almost a decade, you're fairly solid - and you've built up a fair network around you over time.
I wonder what effect (if any) a forum drinks night would have if organised here?
- Thread starter
- #144
I said I was a 52.95% ATS bettor over 3000+ bets.
You also need to understand the difference between sport modelling and bankroll theory. My model doesn't give me optimal bankroll growth (it's made for modelling the sport), bankroll theory and simulation gives me optimal bankroll growth.
I never said anything remotely like this. I welcome public accountability. I've said that twice. However undue criticism is all I've copped.
That's all I've done. Many topics (like optimal capital allocation), I've outlined my research in detail.
Hell yes. Do you think I'm going to spill the beans on many hundreds of hours of conceptualization and work?
I've never said anything of the sort. However stating that says more about you than me. It seems even the very act of writing clearly and logically is seen as arrogance here. Which is sad indeed.
Yep. This is highly likely. You've written nothing that makes me think otherwise.
Oh!? I'm sorry. I didn't know we had a pecking order in an anonymous online forum! Neither did I realize the amount of posts one has here passes for an ever increasing sports betting wisdom.
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
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Hey Brett, you've missed the point. You didn't come here to discuss, you came here to preach.
The thing is, I'm not sure you've got the chops to be preaching. Just think about all those 100's of hours of study, modeling and data collection, which you pointed out has given you a ROI of 0.2% on turnover of $2m. I'd say that's even less now after your last 2 weeks of Kelly optimised losses. By my calculations, you're earning less per hour than the average worker in rural China.
The thing is, I'm not sure you've got the chops to be preaching. Just think about all those 100's of hours of study, modeling and data collection, which you pointed out has given you a ROI of 0.2% on turnover of $2m. I'd say that's even less now after your last 2 weeks of Kelly optimised losses. By my calculations, you're earning less per hour than the average worker in rural China.
Chism
Franks & Beans
- Sep 7, 2008
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Keep the personal stuff out fellas and play nice and that goes for everyone.
sticky
Rookie
- Nov 2, 2009
- 22
- 4
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Lol that's ok you don't sound like a prick, just a spud.
Explain to me again why you're backing 1.01 when you can get 1.02 (or 1.03 if you got in early) on betfair?
- Thread starter
- #150
Ok. Wooosa.
I'm not gonna be a prick about it this time. Let's see if I can help your application of betting theory mate.
I said Melbourne -12 had a 57% chance of covering. Let's call the probability of covering 'PCover'. Let's assume we have a $1000 bankroll. One bet with a PCover of 0.57 would garner an optimal bet size of $92, with an EV of $8 and expected bankroll growth of $4.
Now what happens when I said that I parlayed it at $1.01 with Hawthorn? Well firstly I said that the probability of Hawthorn of covering a line of '0' (ie. winning) is 99.78% (I actually think it should be a little higher). So PCover here is 0.9978.
So multiplying the two PCovers, we get the conditional probability that these two events will occur together:
PCover(Melbourne -12) * PCover(Hawthorn 0)
= 0.57 * 0.9978
= 0.568746
But now, given that I now have odds of $1.92 on a PCover of 0.568746 and not $1.90 on a PCover of 0.57, my betting size, EV and EG changes. I now have created a bet with an optimal bet size of $100, having an EV of $9, and an EG of $5.
Now the other part of your attempt at ridicule deals with 'why' I am not getting down on Hawthorn at $1.02 (or $1.03 if I bet early on Betfair). This has to do with the tying up of capital (and the time value of money; i'm not going to be sitting on a bet for a week) . Funnily enough, the vig-adjusted Betfair price of $1.019 is actually a better individual bet than getting down on Hawthorn at the line if Hawthorn had a PCover of 0.57 (which it has).
But, the first betting opportunity ties up just over 88% of capital, whereas the second bet does not. It ties up around 10%. However, when betting simultaneously on different, the bet size further decreases.
Bottom line:
I have a lot more capital free to pursue bankroll growth for a much longer time, than if I'd taken that one capital tying bet early at Betfair at a vig adjusted price of $1.0285.
Hope this helps mate.
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