My official betting thread

[Island Bomber]

Under 46 still available at 1.90

 

[Borgsta]

My Tigers -4 play is looking good, the play is now beating the current line by 1.5 points (5.5 line). The 1.5 point differential alone has a win % value of 3.5%.

always good to beat the end line but does -4 to -5.5 make a diff?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

28-26 Tigers @ 52min mark. Wowsers that is high scoring.

 

[KP78]

Getting the job done for you now on the -4

 

[brett128]

Wests -4 @ 60% WIN
UPGRADE Wests vs Parramatta UNDER 44.5 to 57% LOSS

Too bad I upgraded. This was going to be a big win even with a 55% loss in there. I don't regret though, variance is variance.

I got down on a nice prop for the game (was speaking to a RL 'guru' just before the game who mentioned it; we checked up the database on his logic and it was a sound play) which got up. Helped it make a half decent night for me.

always good to beat the end line but does -4 to -5.5 make a diff?

It's worth 3.5% to covering the spread. If a zero edge punter makes his play at a line of '4', his chance of covering is a coin flipping 50% ATS long term. If he is lucky enough to catch the correct line move to '5.5' in NRL, he now has a bet that will cover at 53.5% ATS.

Conversely, if you took the play at -5.5, you would have had to size the bet that I originally had at 60% to a win % of 56.5%.

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

I will update my disaster of a weekend during te week after I recover from a weekend long bender butI have made 3 early straight bets this week.
Pies hu 1unit @2.25 have owned swans in recent ties going 5-0. Am I running hot or what. They have drifted to $2.60 with Swans exit but I did back early so basically FU
Kangaroos hu 1.25 units @ $1.75 just too quick for essedon. It's a finals spot on the line for these 2 teams and essedon can not handle speed which north have in abundance.
West coast 1 unit @$1.95 Betfair. West coast at home not giving a start at near evens. this is he least onfident of the 3. Geelong 1-3 outside melb this year. West coast 8-2 at home with losses vs dockers in the derby and swans who always play them tough

 

[brett128]

I've got down early on these plays for a generous amount with the intention of middling back any action I don't want when the line moves my way.


Sydney - 8.5 @ 60%
St Kilda -46.5 @ 60%
Hawthorn - 70.5 @ 60%
Richmond - 33.5 @ 60%

 

[Jan Juc]

5/6/7 or however many weeks in, betting thousands on the high point of lines that move in your favour more often than not at Aust bookies and yet to be restricted?

 

[brett128]

5/6/7 or however many weeks in, betting thousands on the high point of lines that move in your favour more often than not at Aust bookies and yet to be restricted?

I'm up only about $5k at Sportsbet since I signed up an account with them when I started betting with the corporate books. And I paid $1000's in rake years ago when playing hold em' full time at Bet365 (among many other poker rooms), so I guess that's still showing up somewhere on the account if the line manager checks up my history.

It seems that I can get anywhere between $1k to $1.8k (at Bet365) on these early lines per play. So I scrounge around at 3-4 books that release by Tuesday.

For bets closer to the first bounce/kick off, I'll split my action between books so as to cause less notice. And also note, I'm still not yet over my initial bankroll size since I started posting here, I'm still down about 9% overall on my exposed record.

 

[Jan Juc]

Being up/down ANY amount (however insignificant) can be irrelevant.

If you are profiled as betting on lines that move in your favour more often than not, you will be cut quicker than Soho can say "more coke, bitches"

Good work on still getting set.

 

[brett128]

Being up/down ANY amount (however insignificant) can be irrelevant.
If you are profiled as betting on lines that move in your favour more often than not, you will be cut quicker than Soho can say "more coke, bitches"

Good work on still getting set.

I agree, beating the closing line (BTCL) is the pre-eminent metric for performance analysis. Variance may affect your win %, however if you BTCL 65%+ percent of the time, a good book will understand you are going to make money.

BTCL filtering was pioneered by Pinny. I might be wrong, however I have no evidence that Aussie books use it (or use it as extensively) as overseas books. I think they simply use net P/L.

 

[Jan Juc]

I'm not certain with sports-betting, but I can GUARANTEE you that metric is used by local books in racing to shut you down.

I can't see why sports would be different, given the functionality of the program/s used draws the data from the same source, although segmented.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

you will be cut quicker than Soho can say "more coke, bitches"
.

made me luagh

 

[brett128]

West Coast +1.5 1st QTR ONLY @ 60% for $2.00

Just took this for max at Bet365 ($1.6K limit). Wish I could get more on it.

 

[brett128]

Gold Coast -17.5 @ 60%

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

west coast geelong under 186.5 1 unit LOSS
Pies +12.5 @$1.92 1 unit Win
bets from earlier in the week pies- see a few posts up
pies 1 unit hu @$2.20 (really screwed my self on this one but it washes out wiith the Eagles pick I guess. Win
Kangaroos 1.25 units @$1.75 Win
West coast 1 unit @$1.95 WIN

As it gets closer I had 2 small brownlow bets early in the year $100 on Mitchell @$14 which is still about the average but $50 each way on Kieran Jack at 260-1& 80-1 for top 3. They way he has played the last 12 weeks he must be getting into a chance for top 3

Last weeks disaster of going 3-7 and losing 5.7 units leaves me 22-27 and a loss of 5.03 units since I start making bets public.
One bet that most effected me was definitely alcohol effected. One of my biggest bets of the year. A 3 unit bet with Brisbane +31.5 as the anchor of a 2 leg multi. I usually don't bet more than 2 units on a game but definitely wasn't caring about money. Saying that Brisbane hadn't been thrashed all year and at home vs the struggling tigers it still seems like a decent bet. A couple of my multi totas missed strangely as well. The carlton game went under my total after they only needed 11 points in the final 10 minutes. Very frustrating but lets hit back this week.

 

[brett128]

West Coast vs Geelong OVER 185.5 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

South Sydney -1 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

Melbourne vs Gold Coast UNDER 40 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

Souths vs Manly UNDER 38.5 @ 60% (Betfair) (Price secured at vig-adjusted figure of $1.75)

 

[The Royal Sampler]

West Coast +1.5 1st QTR ONLY @ 60% for $2.00

Just took this for max at Bet365 ($1.6K limit). Wish I could get more on it.

Sometimes when you lose, you actually win. [/whitemencan'tjump]

 

[brett128]

Sometimes when you lose, you actually win.

That was a great +EV bet. The outcome was unfortunate however. The line went from +1.5 (when I was on it) to -2.5 prior to the game starting. To BTCL by four points on that QT line is a big +EV win.

 

[brett128]

Sydney - 8.5 @ 60%
St Kilda -46.5 @ 60%
Hawthorn - 70.5 @ 60%
Richmond - 33.5 @ 60%

Of these games, BTCL will be achieved on all of them.

 

[brett128]

Melbourne vs St Kilda UNDER 45.5 1st QTR ONLY @ 57% (bet365)

Got around the individual bet limit by parlaying with a neutral EV leg in Hawthorn h2h to get a double of max stake.

Although I don't know whether that will get me on the express road to restrictions sooner rather than later with Bet365.

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

Adelaide -16.5 1 unit @$1.91WIN