No need to finish top 4

[dhdc freo]

I think all honest Freo supporters would think we are still a way off winning the flag this year,with st Kilda,collingwood,andGeelong looking too strong.If we were to finish 4th,it would mean a trip to play Geelong week 1,which would mean a big physical test,and travelling,which would most likley end up in a defeat.This would then mean we play a home final the next week,with the players coming off a tough game on the road,against a team that has had a win the week before.
If we finish 5th or 6th,we would host a home final week 1,against 7th or 8th,which we would expect to win,with a big home crowd at Subi,then the second week be better prepared to travel,and play the loser from the top 4[maybe bulldogs etc]for a shot at a prelim final.
I know there is no second chance,but it almost seems a bettter pathway to get to the same game,when you take into consideration travel,and who we would have to play,......thoughts???

 

[estibador]

Yeah nah, I'd still take the top 4 route. All it takes is for the Cats/Saints/Pies to be a bit complacent against us or have a bad day and BAM, we're suddenly hosting a prelim final at Subi after a week off.

And even if you do subscribe to the theory that we aren't ready for the premiership yet a hard fought top 4 final at the G will provide our youngsters with better big stage finals experience than duking it out in minor finals in the bottom half of the 8.

 

[Kram]

Is this some sort of a joke?

 

[dhdc freo]

No joke at all,if like me you think we are not quite ready to beat Geelong,St Kilda or Collingwood in melb,in a final[We did lose to Richmond under a finals type atmosphere]this year,this pathway would give our young list 2 finals,and save us from a potential battering in week 1,thus giving us 2 weeks at home[round 22,wk 1 final]and a better,more confident pysical and mental chance in week 2.
I know historically you need top 4 to win the flag,but i dont think we can win it this year.

 

[mickyp]

good point
who do we play if we end up losing our first game though ?

 

[DOCKERZ]

Surely competing against the best in Melbourne in the first week of finals is the type experience you just can't buy, or simulate in practise. Our young (and not so young) blokes will be all the better for it in the years to come.
I want to finish 4th, and I bet Harves et el does too.

 

[dugrene]

The fixture of round 22 on a Friday might against Carlson does us no favours. In case you haven't noticed we come off a 6 day break after going to Tassi and they get a 7 day break by playing two Fridays in a row.
Likely R22 will be a season defining game for both teams. The 6 day break given by the AFL is about the only way left for them to handicap us some more.

The good thing I guess is if we are in the 8 we will get a minimum of a 7 day break going into september.

Our Club should already be organising a charter plane for round 21.

As for the thread Title, ummm. Nope , wrong.
By finishing higher than 5th we are guaranteed at least two games.
Finals experience is invaluable.

 

[free at last]

I think all honest Freo supporters would think we are still a way off winning the flag this year,with st Kilda,collingwood,andGeelong looking too strong.If we were to finish 4th,it would mean a trip to play Geelong week 1,which would mean a big physical test,and travelling,which would most likley end up in a defeat.This would then mean we play a home final the next week,with the players coming off a tough game on the road,against a team that has had a win the week before.
If we finish 5th or 6th,we would host a home final week 1,against 7th or 8th,which we would expect to win,with a big home crowd at Subi,then the second week be better prepared to travel,and play the loser from the top 4[maybe bulldogs etc]for a shot at a prelim final.
I know there is no second chance,but it almost seems a bettter pathway to get to the same game,when you take into consideration travel,and who we would have to play,......thoughts???

What Esti wrote.It only takes a team to be a bit off their game & we're on song.We could be hosting a prelim final at subi.DOUBLE CHANCE FORSURE.No brainer I reckon.

 

[Moo]

Is this some sort of a joke?

I think more a riddle.

 

[clivewaterhousen]

i dont mind this thinking, considering many thought we would be 9-12, id rather win a home final than go out in straight sets...

then again we could lose the home final.

 

[Rob]

Go and research just how often 1st week winners win in the 2nd week. It rarely happens. Maybe 20% of the time at most.

It's not even close. 4th >>>>>>> 5th. And TBH, I wouldn't be that scared of playing Geelong at the MCG or Etihad in the first week. As long as we can get a side close to full strength out there, we'd be a silly chance.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

The fixture of round 22 on a Friday might against Carlson does us no favours. In case you haven't noticed we come off a 6 day break after going to Tassi and they get a 7 day break by playing two Fridays in a row.
Likely R22 will be a season defining game for both teams. The 6 day break given by the AFL is about the only way left for them to handicap us some more.

Pretty negative way of looking at it tbh. On the flipside, you could be looking at it from the point of view that heading into the first week of finals, we have one flight in 10 days, and have at least an extra days break on whoever we play. That's a pretty big positive. An extra day break is probably the best thing we could get to negate the travel factor.

The AFL have helped us out by putting it on a Friday night, knowing we probably have to travel the next week. St Kilda have to travel to Adelaide, and will have a days less break than we do. Collingwood and Hawthorn in rd 22 will be a massive match aswell. There isn't much more the AFL could have done, bar handing us a rd 22 bye plus the four points.

You can't have it both ways dude.

As for the OP, he has definately got a point. There are some positives to be taken out of finishing 5th. The security blanket of top 4 would be great, but don't overlook what 5th offers.

 

[dugrene]

So far this year our Club hasn't even looked like flirting with form.
I'd like to get Harvey's opinion on what his preferred position would be between 4th and 5th.

Fwiw i'd be happy with 5th. Given a choice i'd take 4th every time.

To say otherwise pretty much means you don't understand the word 'guarantee'

2 games, guaranteed.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

Whatever happens, it's going to be a tough task to get to the Grand Final, let alone win it. We'd have to beat at least 2 of Geelong/Saints/Magpies/Bulldogs to get there and beat another one on the big day in Melbourne.

 

[dugrene]

Pretty negative way of looking at it tbh. On the flipside, you could be looking at it from the point of view that heading into the first week of finals, we have one flight in 10 days, and have at least an extra days break on whoever we play. That's a pretty big positive. An extra day break is probably the best thing we could get to negate the travel factor.

The AFL have helped us out by putting it on a Friday night, knowing we probably have to travel the next week. St Kilda have to travel to Adelaide, and will have a days less break than we do. Collingwood and Hawthorn in rd 22 will be a massive match aswell. There isn't much more the AFL could have done, bar handing us a rd 22 bye plus the four points.

You can't have it both ways dude.

As for the OP, he has definately got a point. There are some positives to be taken out of finishing 5th. The security blanket of top 4 would be great, but don't overlook what 5th offers.

If your going to quote my post dont leave out the stuff that says exactly what your saying.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Go and research just how often 1st week winners win in the 2nd week. It rarely happens. Maybe 20% of the time at most.

It's not even close. 4th >>>>>>> 5th. And TBH, I wouldn't be that scared of playing Geelong at the MCG or Etihad in the first week. As long as we can get a side close to full strength out there, we'd be a silly chance.

Perhaps you would like to research the average wins that teams who finish in the top 4 have, compared to those who don't. If you want to then take a huge leap, and assume that top 4 teams are generally better, then by all means, go ahead.

 

[Clay Davis]

Not even making the finals at all would be even better because then we can't lose one.

 

[Borry]

History shows that being fourth gives us a FAR better chance of make the prelims.

Name me the sides that finished 6-8 since the introduction of the current finals format in 2000. Hawthorn made the prelims after finishing 6th in 2001. In fact that is it. So that is a success rate of 1/20 (5 percent); quite staggering! Definitely a compelling case for finishing fourth over fifth.

 

[Clay Davis]

Collingwood 2007 did, but they came up against an injury ravaged West Coast.

Top four is better because it guarantees us two finals. If we assume we're no chance of winning the premiership, then the more finals experience into guys like Stephen Hill, etc, the better. Top four all the ****ing way.

 

[Borry]

Collingwood 2007 did, but they came up against an injury ravaged West Coast.

Top four is better because it guarantees us two finals. If we assume we're no chance of winning the premiership, then the more finals experience into guys like Stephen Hill, etc, the better. Top four all the ****ing way.

Forgot about that, thats two out of the last 20 semi final winners from positions 5-8.

 

[The Night Shift]

I think all honest Freo supporters would think we are still a way off winning the flag this year,with st Kilda,collingwood,andGeelong looking too strong.If we were to finish 4th,it would mean a trip to play Geelong week 1,which would mean a big physical test,and travelling,which would most likley end up in a defeat.This would then mean we play a home final the next week,with the players coming off a tough game on the road,against a team that has had a win the week before.
If we finish 5th or 6th,we would host a home final week 1,against 7th or 8th,which we would expect to win,with a big home crowd at Subi,then the second week be better prepared to travel,and play the loser from the top 4[maybe bulldogs etc]for a shot at a prelim final.
I know there is no second chance,but it almost seems a bettter pathway to get to the same game,when you take into consideration travel,and who we would have to play,......thoughts???

yeah nah top 4 is not a bad place to finish...

 

[Alfonz]

I still can't believe people could entertain the thought that 5th is better than 4th. Completely ridiculous logic.

 

[docker_champ29]

Simply finishing 4th makes it about 10 times more likely to make the prelim but we are at greater risk of not winning a game than 5th. I like 4th. We've gotta go as absolutely far as we can and maybe take a couple chances.

 

[estibador]

Let's hope no opposition supporters see this thread. We don't want to get a reputation as the first team in history who didn't want to make the top 4 because they were scared of playing the big boys.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Make top 4 and lose you get a home elimination final.

It's a no brainer. The 2nd chance even in financial terms is a big boost when your club sells finals tickets.