Prediction Changes: Round 4 Vs Carlton

[Raz]

Jsut for some fun info. i googled the free kicks for 2024

But lets not let STATS get in the way of a good argument of how certain players are getting too many free kicks

RANK		GAMES	TOTAL	AVERAGE
1	Max Gawn	4	15	3.75
2	Matthew Rowell	3	12	4
3	Jack Viney	4	12	3
4	Brodie Grundy	4	11	2.75
5	Tristan Xerri	3	8	2.67
6	Rowan Marshall	3	8	2.67
7	James Rowbottom	4	8	2
8	Patrick Cripps	3	7	2.33
9	Zak Butters	3	7	2.33
10	Tom Liberatore	3	7	2.33

 

[Paracleet]

Why does Carlton have 20 tines the league average, free kicks for than the leagues average after round 3?

That's not tin foil it's a fact.

That's not how it works. Every year, every, free kicks are normally distributed. You don't get every team with the same average differential. What you have said is nonsensical.

 

[FreoGirl]

4th on that table is interesting for a winless team with a percentage of 42.8%.

And they were still complaining

 

[FreoGirl]

Can’t help but think the Cripps baby could be the biggest factor here. A Carlton midfield with no Walsh and Cripps has to be taken advantage of and our group should dominate there. Cripps makes it a lot harder to stop the big boys up front getting clean entries from stoppage and we seem to have really nailed down stopping teams in transition.

Which is why I wouldn’t want us putting bodies like Erasmus or Simpson up against him, and why JOM might be able to stack up against him.

 

[King Huskii]

That's not how it works. Every year, every, free kicks are normally distributed. You don't get every team with the same average differential. What you have said is nonsensical.

True, but Carlton are way above every other club and that is fact.

 

[Taylor]

I feel this game is Draper's best chance of a rising star nomination

 

[Righteo]

Banners has nearly always been good for a goal a game.

surprisingly he only has 46 from 78 games or 0.6 a game. it is worth mentioning though he has been sub 13 times so it's not a totally fair reflection of his impact. as you say he always seems to bob up at important times.

 

[FreoGirl]

surprisingly he only has 46 from 78 games or 0.6 a game. it is worth mentioning though he has been sub 13 times so it's not a totally fair reflection of his impact. as you say he always seems to bob up at important times.

be interesting to know stats on full games in 2023 and now

 

[FreoMatt]

surprisingly he only has 46 from 78 games or 0.6 a game. it is worth mentioning though he has been sub 13 times so it's not a totally fair reflection of his impact. as you say he always seems to bob up at important times.

Also in his first year he played mostly as a run with/lock down mid and did pretty well in that role


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[ubiquitous226]

surprisingly he only has 46 from 78 games or 0.6 a game. it is worth mentioning though he has been sub 13 times so it's not a totally fair reflection of his impact. as you say he always seems to bob up at important times.

I was also surprised when I looked it up recently, but it is affected by his first couple of seasons (non-forward) and the sub role.

 

[rgauci]

Which is why I wouldn’t want us putting bodies like Erasmus or Simpson up against him, and why JOM might be able to stack up against him.

I’d trust Erasmus to stick the tackle a lot more than JOM.

 

[Vintage]

13 of Carlton’s differential comes from a single game btw. And yes that was last week.

Us losing the free kick count by their average otherwise won’t be the reason we win or lose the game.

Got to love West Coast still having a positive free kick count. Their fans have been telling me for years it’s because they’re first to the ball, more disciplined etc. but neither of those things could be anywhere close to true atm - they’re literally the worst team since the expansion sides and anyone that debates that is a moron.

Hard to give away a free kick when you’re trailing 3 or 4 meters behind your man.

 

[EastcoastDocker]

For someone who is meant to have a great kick JOM must be 0/8 from 45-50m out on the run with little pressure. Missed another easy one on the weekend.

Brayshaw for someone who use to get criticism for his disposal seems to go at 75%+ in those situations.

Ras in for JOM. Can't believe we have JOM on the books for another 2yrs after this one. He's not terrible he just doesn't fit it now.

 

[thistimeforsure]

Blues have changed their style a bit this year , much more dangerous off turnover …. If we have close to 70 like last week this will get ugly AF

I was kinda right last week when I said we’d need Sonny to kick 3-4 to win although he missed a couple he would normally kick

This week I can’t decide between Tabs or Hughes on who is the key fringey we need to fire

Maybe both of them


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[theGav56]

And they were still complaining

Boo-ing is an established tradition of theirs. Right now it's something to cling to.

 

[theGav56]

Blues have changed their style a bit this year , much more dangerous off turnover …. If we have close to 70 like last week this will get ugly AF

I was kinda right last week when I said we’d need Sonny to kick 3-4 to win although he missed a couple he would normally kick

This week I can’t decide between Tabs or Hughes on who is the key fringey we need to fire

Maybe both of them


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Crows kicked 4 goals total. Walters had a good game, but your prediction was as inaccurate as his goal kicking.

 

[WilloTree]

13 of Carlton’s differential comes from a single game btw. And yes that was last week.

Us losing the free kick count by their average otherwise won’t be the reason we win or lose the game.

Got to love West Coast still having a positive free kick count. Their fans have been telling me for years it’s because they’re first to the ball, more disciplined etc. but neither of those things could be anywhere close to true atm - they’re literally the worst team since the expansion sides and anyone that debates that is a moron.

They're actually worse.

%
Gold Coast, 2011 56.3
GWS 2012 46.2
West Coast 2024 42.8

 

[Paracleet]

They're actually worse.

%
Gold Coast, 2011 56.3
GWS 2012 46.2
West Coast 2024 42.8

After their third game in 2012 GWS's percentage was 37. They only lost their next 3 games by a collective total of 140 points boosting it to current West Coast territory. They beat Gold Coast in round 7 to reach the dizzy heights of 50%, something the Eagles are probably going to struggle to do with their defensive focus.

 

[wakojako]

For someone who is meant to have a great kick JOM must be 0/8 from 45-50m out on the run with little pressure. Missed another easy one on the weekend.

You should be more concerned about Bradshaw/Serong's kicking going I50. They are starting to hit their prime are still suck at it.

 

[Quazar2]

I'm thinking Emmett maybe being subbed is a sign he might get dropped, I think he's done everything fairly well except score goals. I'm not I'm keen on Jaeger as a direct replacement but it might be the way the brain's trust is thinking....love to see Cooper Simpson get a sub nod (or even just a full debut!), but I'm wondering if it's more likely a home debut, possibly in the Derby and he gets a chance to build minutes and form in the WAFL?! Starting to think Erasmus needs more opportunity at senior level but not sure how you shoehorn him in? Tricky business this selection lark

 

[Dale147]

 

[DeanS]

I'm thinking Emmett maybe being subbed is a sign he might get dropped, I think he's done everything fairly well except score goals. I'm not I'm keen on Jaeger as a direct replacement but it might be the way the brain's trust is thinking....love to see Cooper Simpson get a sub nod (or even just a full debut!), but I'm wondering if it's more likely a home debut, possibly in the Derby and he gets a chance to build minutes and form in the WAFL?! Starting to think Erasmus needs more opportunity at senior level but not sure how you shoehorn him in? Tricky business this selection lark

Did you see Simpson's game for Peel on the weekend? Didn't exactly scream "pick me!!!!" to the selectors. He needs some decent WAFL form before being considered.

 

[Footskill]

You should be more concerned about Bradshaw/Serong's kicking going I50. They are starting to hit their prime are still suck at it.

True. Some of their inside 50 kicks are shocking and at times with time and space. What should be simple chest mark to a fwd ends up over their heads or at their feet

 

[Quazar2]

Did you see Simpson's game for Peel on the weekend? Didn't exactly scream "pick me!!!!" to the selectors. He needs some decent WAFL form before being considered.

I did, I was watching at work!! Shhhhhhh, don't tell 'em, no admin around on Easter weekend!

I know what you mean, it's obvious he will need to build a case going forward and I fully expect that will be the 'conservative' route they'll take, it's just...I'm an impatient emotionally warped footy fan and want me some Cooper Simpson x-factor in the team even without using any preferred sense of logic (Something I struggle with anyway ) . Or if he even deserves a call up!

He is so young, I know. Hopefully he has an exciting debut when his chance does arrive though

 

[ozzie69]

I did, I was watching at work!! Shhhhhhh, don't tell 'em, no admin around on Easter weekend!

I know what you mean, it's obvious he will need to build a case going forward and I fully expect that will be the 'conservative' route they'll take, it's just...I'm an impatient emotionally warped footy fan and want me some Cooper Simpson x-factor in the team even without using any preferred sense of logic (Something I struggle with anyway ) . Or if he even deserves a call up!

He is so young, I know. Hopefully he has an exciting debut when his chance does arrive though

Here's hoping it progressively gets harder and harder to make a spot on the A team.