Club Focus North Melbourne 2021 - Greenwood, Coleman-Jones, Horne-Francis, Goater, Curtis, Bergman, Archer

[Gysberts2Bate]

I’m not sure Oliver falls into that category of player in terms of match winning role that you’d take ahead of the equivalently talented KPF.

If talent is equal I’d order the player types as the below:

1. Do it all mid/fwd (Martin/Petracca/Bont)
2. KPF (Franklin/Hawkins)
3. Inside Mid (Oliver/Pendlebury)
4. Outside Mid (I.Smith, McLuggage)
5. Small/Medium fwd (Greene, Cameron)
6. KPD (Weitering/May/Lever)
7. Intercept 3rd talls (Stewart, Ridley)
8. Small running defenders (Dale, Rich,Salem)
9. Ruckman*

*Not including your top 2-3 ruckman in the comp. Ruckman ranked so low as I don’t think having the 10th best ruck lineup against 30th best ruck is much of an advantage in winning.

Despite having defenders ranked low I’m not saying they aren’t important to winning or can’t be top players in the comp.

Also Oliver does have the physical tools to potentially become a player in group 1 heck he might already have done it if he wasn’t playing alongside Petracca who is clearly more suited to the role.

Petracca is the kind of midfielder who wins you finals, but Oliver is almost as much that kind of midfielder but also the kind who is consistent enough to get you a top 2 finish much more so than Petracca is. For five months of the season Oliver is the one I want in my team.

 

[hilly]

plus another pick upgrade in the first round (where Melbourne could slide as they so often do).

Yeah they look shizen when they were torching the Bulldogs midfield a few weeks ago. Lock them in for 12th.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

If nothing else I’m reminded of how far we’ve come by North fans being less confident about the idea of having our first rounder than they were last year, when they seemed convinced we were going to finish bottom 2 again

 

[Le Grille]

A three pick downgrade (5 by time FS take effect)

One potential top 5 pick in 22

Effectively a future pick upgrade NM f2nd to Melb f1st which could be 19 to 18

In order to lose the opportunity to draft a potential elite player in a draft where the top 4 (JHF,Daicos,Callaghan are ranked a tier above the next lot of draft picks (where north would be)

No way I’d be taking that.

You can accumulate players of the “potentially very good” ilk in every draft (provided your drafting team is competent) but you don’t get the opportunity to draft a potential superstar every draft (presumably, the goal wouldn’t be bottoming out again)

I’d just take quality over quantity

 

[nineteen eighty]

To be honest, I actually find the Tigers offer insulting. Like I said with Adelaide, if they really want the #1 pick from North, then the offer must be fantastic. That is not even ok. In fact, if I was North I would be insulted.

 

[Portjones10]

I'm convinced North Melbourne are incredibly stupid for rejecting Adelaide's offer. No one kid is worth that much.

 

[Bluelegs]

A three pick downgrade (5 by time FS take effect)

One potential top 5 pick in 22

Effectively a future pick upgrade NM f2nd to Melb f1st which could be 19 to 18

In order to lose the opportunity to draft a potential elite player in a draft where the top 4 (JHF,Daicos,Callaghan are ranked a tier above the next lot of draft picks (where north would be)

No way I’d be taking that.

You can accumulate players of the “potentially very good” ilk in every draft (provided your drafting team is competent) but you don’t get the opportunity to draft a potential superstar every draft (presumably, the goal wouldn’t be bottoming out again)

I’d just take quality over quantity

Doesn't almost every number 1 pick get hyped as a potential superstar. You don't know until they play.

 

[KiwiRoo]

Doesn't almost every number 1 pick get hyped as a potential superstar. You don't know until they play.

maybe, but the fact that at least 2 clubs are throwing the kitchen sink at getting him, plus he has exposed form playing against men suggests that he might actually be quite good

no guarantees as you say, but fingers crossed.

 

[Bluelegs]

maybe, but the fact that at least 2 clubs are throwing the kitchen sink at getting him, plus he has exposed form playing against men suggests that he might actually be quite good

no guarantees as you say, but fingers crossed.

I guess, but one player doesn't make a team. He'd want to be a better player than Riewoldt, Hodge, Walsh, Goddard and Whitfield. Cause even if he was in that ilk of the best number 1 picks I'd still be taking that deal from Adelaide.

The draft hand North would end up with from that trade is enough to build the core of their list and then some.

 

[KiwiRoo]

I guess, but one player doesn't make a team. He'd want to be a better player than Riewoldt, Hodge, Walsh, Goddard and Whitfield. Cause even if he was in that ilk of the best number 1 picks I'd still be taking that deal from Adelaide.

The draft hand North would end up with from that trade is enough to build the core of their list and then some.

Carlton have just sent their former No 6 pick off for a bag of chips, so no guarantees the additional picks we'd get in return will be worth it

and I'd take Hodge , Reiwoldt and Walsh in a heart beat.. especially Riewoldt

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yeah they look shizen when they were torching the Bulldogs midfield a few weeks ago. Lock them in for 12th.

That's not what I said or what I expect. Everyone in evaluating this trade is going in with the expectation that North finish last and Melbourne finish first. The trade is good even if that happens but that is worst case scenario for North. I'd be backing my own club to rise and there's every possibility Melbourne don't go back to back. Many clubs don't back up and Melbourne have a long history of yo yoing. This time last year they missed finals.

 

[Bluelegs]

Carlton have just sent their former No 6 pick off for a bag of chips, so no guarantees the additional picks we'd get in return will be worth it

and I'd take Hodge , Reiwoldt and Walsh in a heart beat.. especially Riewoldt

No guarantees but the more picks you have the better your chances of getting one or more great players. You look at the kind of players you can get in the first round, the first pick rarely outshines the rest of the draft. In 35 years there are maybe 5 players who are worthy of being picked at number 1. Then you have a bunch of players who have had good careers and a handful of complete duds or at best journeymen.

My other worry now is that this kid has now had the pressure of the number one pick increased by ten-fold.

 

[Jibroni]

That's not what I said or what I expect. Everyone in evaluating this trade is going in with the expectation that North finish last and Melbourne finish first. The trade is good even if that happens but that is worst case scenario for North. I'd be backing my own club to rise and there's every possibility Melbourne don't go back to back. Many clubs don't back up and Melbourne have a long history of yo yoing. This time last year they missed finals.

True im surprised so many have already pencilled us in for next year when there are so many variables and unknowns which can happen during the season.

Being realistic I think Adelaide can finish 11-14 and Dees Top 4 which would be something like Picks 4 (6) and approx. Picks 5 and 15 next year for Picks 1 and 23. Im a huge fan of Horne Francis and can understand North rejecting the offer, as tempting as it is.

 

[Wild Bill]

If nothing else I’m reminded of how far we’ve come by North fans being less confident about the idea of having our first rounder than they were last year, when they seemed convinced we were going to finish bottom 2 again

No we just enjoy a Dee death ride - you never know what you're going to get.

 

[Bluelegs]

No we just enjoy a Dee death ride - you never know what you're going to get.

Every death ride thread for one of our future picks has backfired spectacularly.

 

[KiwiRoo]

No guarantees but the more picks you have the better your chances of getting one or more great players. You look at the kind of players you can get in the first round, the first pick rarely outshines the rest of the draft. In 35 years there are maybe 5 players who are worthy of being picked at number 1. Then you have a bunch of players who have had good careers and a handful of complete duds or at best journeymen.

My other worry now is that this kid has now had the pressure of the number one pick increased by ten-fold.

yep that's the risk North is taking. But as I said, he does have form against men. Some of the No 1's in the past were Full fwd types who couldn't translate dominating the under age comps (due to size) into the AFL. So he's shown he can compete against men at a very good level.
He seems pretty level headed so don't think the No 1 mantle will bother him

nothing is guaranteed though

don't think we've seen the end of the bids for him yet either

 

[Theo23]

To be honest, I actually find the Tigers offer insulting. Like I said with Adelaide, if they really want the #1 pick from North, then the offer must be fantastic. That is not even ok. In fact, if I was North I would be insulted.

I’m sure they will be okay.

 

[Wild Bill]

I guess, but one player doesn't make a team. He'd want to be a better player than Riewoldt, Hodge, Walsh, Goddard and Whitfield. Cause even if he was in that ilk of the best number 1 picks I'd still be taking that deal from Adelaide.

The draft hand North would end up with from that trade is enough to build the core of their list and then some.

Its really pick 1 for pick 4 and the Crows 2022 1st rounder. We could miss on Petracca and get 2 Toumpus.

 

[Bluelegs]

Its really pick 1 for pick 4 and the Crows 2022 1st rounder. We could miss on Petracca and get 2 Toumpus.

Or you could pass on Jack Watts/Scully/Trengove and end up with Martin, Nic Nat and Fyfe. The irony is Toumpas had proven form against men prior to being drafted as well.

 

[Cat Addict]

Spreadsheet created by Lore and Taylor, using data from footywire and AFL Tables. Version above maintained by giantroo.

To check the draft order see the thread here.

Spoiler: footywire version

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

Just a note I believe Trent Dumont is an unrestricted free agent.

One source here confirms, but I have seen it in multiple places...

North Melbourne free agent “gettable for the right price”

“He's very much gettable for the right price."

www.sen.com.au

 

[Taylor]

Just a note I believe Trent Dumont is an unrestricted free agent.

We don't control footywire, where the data is scraped from.

 

[Wild Bill]

Every death ride thread for one of our future picks has backfired spectacularly.

Tom Powell was a spectacular backfire?

 

[Bluelegs]

Tom Powell was a spectacular backfire?

More from the perspective of the trade and the point of Deathriding threads. We got pick 8 (became 12) in 2019 for 10 (became 13) in 2020.

 

[Wild Bill]

More from the perspective of the trade and the point of Deathriding threads. We got pick 8 (became 12) in 2019 for 10 (became 13) in 2020.

Right - so pick 12 for pick 13 is a spectacular backfire?

 

[Bluelegs]

Right - so pick 12 for pick 13 is a spectacular backfire?

Not at all what I said. I said the deathriding threads were backfires. Is a deathriding thread a success because the trade turned out to be totally even?