Prediction North Melbourne 2021

[gingernuts]

What i find is that North going down the same path as now is not going to get them anywhere. A big clean out is a brave and bold decision and probably the correct one.

 

[Freomaniac]

What i find is that North going down the same path as now is not going to get them anywhere. A big clean out is a brave and bold decision and probably the correct one.

Not a massive fan of clean outs to be honest. Fair enough you want kids to come in. But with a main squad of 38 players in the main squad and 5-6 on the rookie list. That is a lot.

I say getting rid of 7-9 players on the main squad is too much. Unless you are bringing in 2-3 guys in that 23-26 year old gap from other clubs.

I say 5-6 guys gone each year for 3 years is moderate enough. Thats 15-18 new kids in a 3 year period

 

[no. 4]

Whenever talking about Carlton's list over the past year, Gerard Whateley has always said "no team will ever do a rebuild like this again".

September 2020, Brady Rawlings walks in to prove Gerard wrong.

 

[Tas]

That best 22 you posted on North, looks like a competitive team.

Saying that, your 2 1st rounders will be chucked in and rotated in that best 22 next season as well

I think we should be competitive next year, we had a ridiculous number of injuries this year. It is not going to be the difference between almost spoon and finals but I think if we can field closer to our best team we should be a lot more competitive.

 

[ltdamn]

This is the size of the cut they needed, but you have to do it in phases rather than in one hit. Adelaide showed this year what happens if you just cut out players 23-31 on your list in one hit and the next group isn't up to it yet.

You can't draft 11 players in a single year who will all go onto play 100 games, let alone 250. If they can pick up even 2-3 free agents who can walk into their best 22 next year, that's still another 5-8 players they have to draft who won't be ready in 2021.

I didn't see a lot of their games this year so where they will finish next year depends on how up to it their next group of players are and how many pre-seasons they have done. We didn't play our draftees last year or in 2018 when we should have been and they got thrown to the wolves this year, only starting to develop in the last 4 weeks.

For mine, a one-hit cull this large is a bad strategy which can only work if you have a 100% success rate at the draft and even then isn't going to pay off for at least 5 years. Add to that you really need to be drafting to replace players who will be retiring in 3-4 years and not gaps in your best 22, otherwise you just end up going thru the cycle over and over again like other clubs do.

 

[Tas]

Looking back at it, I wished the North Board gave Brent "Boomer" harvey one more season. I am not even a North fan, But I would of loved him to play at least 20 more games to make it to 450 games.

I would have loved for him to go on, I didn't agree with the call but I understood why they made it. At the time I said I had more confidence that Harvey could play for three more years than I did with Wells and we offered him a 3 year deal before he ended up taking Collingwood's offer. I think once Wells left as a free agent we should have kept on Harvey, but if he stayed on a year or two longer I don't think it would have made a huge difference overall. We ended up sacking everyone responsible for list management and recruitment from back then.

But our rebuilding started after the end of the 2016 season, it isn't something that is starting now. We limped into 8th spot in 2016 and got annihilated by the Crows in the EF, it effectively was the start of our rebuild.

Of that team we let go Harvey, Petrie, Firrito, Dal Santo and Wells saw the writing on the wall and left as a free agent. The year after Swallow, Thomas, Hansen, Gibson and Mullett. We went from 8th to 15th 2017 and back up to 9th in 2018. Waite retired end of 2018, Wright 2019. Higgins was All Australian in 2018, more midfield opportunity allowed him to blossom but we lost too much midfield class and that was when we had the infamous issues of offering players like Kelly, Martin, etc lucrative offers, got close but no cigar.

We picked up Simpkin with our first round pick in 2016, also got Larkey and Zurhaar in the same draft.
Hit 4th last the following year, got LDU, Will Walker, Hayden and Xerri in the 2017 draft.
Finished 9th in 2018, picked up Thomas, Taylor and Scott
Finished 12th last year, traded 1st round pick to Melbourne's pick this and a bunch of picks, ended up with three 2nd round picks took Comben, Mahony and Perez. Mahony and Perez played this year, pretty happy with them, Comben is a KPF, didn't play this year.

It seems extreme to de-list 11 players but players let go were defenders notorious for leaking goals, guys who had struggled physically amd a few guys who didn't look AFL standard. Some of the calls were a bit harsh but I think some should have gone last year, Rawling being unable to do list management work until after last year's pre-season I think pushed some of the 2019 decisions into 2020.

I think the following guys will go next year: Hall, Tyson, Atley, Campbell and Tarrant may or may not retire, Dumont I think eventually will be pushed out of the midfield by more talented kids but I think it should revert to a more normal level of player movement.

I doubt anyone we cut will be playing next year. I'd prefer if we kept Brown and Higgins, I do not mind Polec going if the rumour is true about why the club is moving him on, but I think our club has been addressing some issues that should have been made last year but we were compromised in the football department. People think we are rebuilding now but have been for a few years. I just think the extent of the changes are surprising to some, Rawlings just doesn't rate players with poor skills or players who aren't making the most of their opportunities, he has just been forced to clean up stuff that should have been done years ago.

 

[Freomaniac]

I would have loved for him to go on, I didn't agree with the call but I understood why they made it. At the time I said I had more confidence that Harvey could play for three more years than I did with Wells and we offered him a 3 year deal before he ended up taking Collingwood's offer. I think once Wells left as a free agent we should have kept on Harvey, but if he stayed on a year or two longer I don't think it would have made a huge difference overall. We ended up sacking everyone responsible for list management and recruitment from back then.

But our rebuilding started after the end of the 2016 season, it isn't something that is starting now. We limped into 8th spot in 2016 and got annihilated by the Crows in the EF, it effectively was the start of our rebuild.

Of that team we let go Harvey, Petrie, Firrito, Dal Santo and Wells saw the writing on the wall and left as a free agent. The year after Swallow, Thomas, Hansen, Gibson and Mullett. We went from 8th to 15th 2017 and back up to 9th in 2018. Waite retired end of 2018, Wright 2019. Higgins was All Australian in 2018, more midfield opportunity allowed him to blossom but we lost too much midfield class and that was when we had the infamous issues of offering players like Kelly, Martin, etc lucrative offers, got close but no cigar.

We picked up Simpkin with our first round pick in 2016, also got Larkey and Zurhaar in the same draft.
Hit 4th last the following year, got LDU, Will Walker, Hayden and Xerri in the 2017 draft.
Finished 9th in 2018, picked up Thomas, Taylor and Scott
Finished 12th last year, traded 1st round pick to Melbourne's pick this and a bunch of picks, ended up with three 2nd round picks took Comben, Mahony and Perez. Mahony and Perez played this year, pretty happy with them, Comben is a KPF, didn't play this year.

It seems extreme to de-list 11 players but players let go were defenders notorious for leaking goals, guys who had struggled physically amd a few guys who didn't look AFL standard. Some of the calls were a bit harsh but I think some should have gone last year, Rawling being unable to do list management work until after last year's pre-season I think pushed some of the 2019 decisions into 2020.

I think the following guys will go next year: Hall, Tyson, Atley, Campbell and Tarrant may or may not retire, Dumont I think eventually will be pushed out of the midfield by more talented kids but I think it should revert to a more normal level of player movement.

I doubt anyone we cut will be playing next year. I'd prefer if we kept Brown and Higgins, I do not mind Polec going if the rumour is true about why the club is moving him on, but I think our club has been addressing some issues that should have been made last year but we were compromised in the football department. People think we are rebuilding now but have been for a few years. I just think the extent of the changes are surprising to some, Rawlings just doesn't rate players with poor skills or players who aren't making the most of their opportunities, he has just been forced to clean up stuff that should have been done years ago.

Funny how Norths 2016 panned out. They had a good strong 1st half and limped in the 2nd half to an elim final loss to the crows.

I looked at Norths 2017 season. Yeah they slipped. But you know was well as I do that North in 2017 were better than the 6-16 record they posted. Brisbane in 2017 were very lucky to get 5 wins that season. North Melbourne lost to both Dogs and Freo twice and lost to both of them by under a goal each. Had North beat freo once, North would of ended up 14th and freo 15th.

To be honest that North vs Brisbane game should of never been a wooden spoon play off. Fortunately, North had too much pride to get that spoon and won by 51 points. North should of ended up with 8-9 wins in 2017 rather than 6. Had they did that, they would of ended up on 14th, at least its better than bottom.

North got 12 wins and 9th spot and North Proved that 2017 was a fluke. North could of lost and tanked that last game in 2018 to the saints but won by 23. with that win, they got 9th spot. Had they lost, they would off got 12th and pick 7.

But Saying that, I dont think it would of hurt North Melbourne long term Keeping Boomer Harvey for one more season. Again, I really wanted him to reach 450 games. North still could of rotated the younger players off the bench regardless if Boomer was in the Starting 18.

I mean freo are Still playing a 35 year old David Mundy and Hawks are playing a 37 year old shaun Burgoyne.

 

[Tas]

This is the size of the cut they needed, but you have to do it in phases rather than in one hit. Adelaide showed this year what happens if you just cut out players 23-31 on your list in one hit and the next group isn't up to it yet.

You can't draft 11 players in a single year who will all go onto play 100 games, let alone 250. If they can pick up even 2-3 free agents who can walk into their best 22 next year, that's still another 5-8 players they have to draft who won't be ready in 2021.

I didn't see a lot of their games this year so where they will finish next year depends on how up to it their next group of players are and how many pre-seasons they have done. We didn't play our draftees last year or in 2018 when we should have been and they got thrown to the wolves this year, only starting to develop in the last 4 weeks.

For mine, a one-hit cull this large is a bad strategy which can only work if you have a 100% success rate at the draft and even then isn't going to pay off for at least 5 years. Add to that you really need to be drafting to replace players who will be retiring in 3-4 years and not gaps in your best 22, otherwise you just end up going thru the cycle over and over again like other clubs do.

Adelaide made the grand final a couple of years ago and cut players who were best 22 and who are now playing footy at other clubs, some playing career best football like Hugh Greenwood. I'd be surprised if anyone picked up any players we delisted. We tried to trade some of them away last year for free but nobody wanted them.

Daw(29) and Jacobs(28) are physically shot.
Ahern(24), Wood(27), Durdin(24) been in the system for a while and couldn't really make the top 35, not enough urgency. Durdin a bit stiff but you have been in the system 6 years, got to show something.
Macmillan(29), Pittard(29), Williams(27) all notorious for leaking goals in the back half, some really dubious skills by foot for the last two, given their age, there isn't much upside that you can turn them around.
Hosie(23), Murphy(22/rookie), Crocker(20) were all speculative picks that had a low probability of coming good, we gave Hosie and Murphy 5 games this season, just didn't see enough to give them new contracts. Crocker is a father/son and his dad is an assistant coach and good personal friend of Rawlings, I doubt that decision was made lightly.

A lot of these guys struggled to get a game when be basically had 28 players to pick from.

 

[Tas]

Funny how Norths 2016 panned out. They had a good strong 1st half and limped in the 2nd half to an elim final loss to the crows.

2016 kind of fell apart by injuries, but the start of the season had us play 9 games against relatively weak opposition, 7 at home and 2 away to GC and Lions who weren't very strong that year. When we got to the harder part of the draw there was a very obvious gap between us and the better teams.

I looked at Norths 2017 season. Yeah they slipped. But you know was well as I do that North in 2017 were better than the 6-16 record they posted. Brisbane in 2017 were very lucky to get 5 wins that season. North Melbourne lost to both Dogs and Freo twice and lost to both of them by under a goal each. Had North beat freo once, North would of ended up 14th and freo 15th.

Yeah, we had a horrendous pre-seasons after 2016, it compromised the start of the season. I think we would have won a lot more games had we retained Harvey, losing him and Wells the same year really hurt our ability to launch scoring opportunities, the club was probably of the opinion that we would adjust, to some extent Higgins stepped up but the second tier mostly flatlined. We tried to replace them with guys like Kelly, Martin, De Goey, Gaff, etc but that didn't pan out so we had to hit the draft instead.

To be honest that North vs Brisbane game should of never been a wooden spoon play off. Fortunately, North had too much pride to get that spoon and won by 51 points. North should of ended up with 8-9 wins in 2017 rather than 6. Had they did that, they would of ended up on 14th, at least its better than bottom.

I am glad we fought out the end of that season, the draft had a lot of talent in it so it didn't really matter where you finished. I am pretty happy we got LDU, even though he has had a slower start I still feel he is capable of being a Brownlow medal calibre midfielder, not sure if he will be the player he is capable of becoming but he has that potential, it will be a lot easier for him if Cunnington is there early on. Something the Freo kids are benefitting from is having Mundy and Fyfe there, talent often stalls if there is not enough maturity and leadership around them.

North got 12 wins and 9th spot and North Proved that 2017 was a fluke. North could of lost and tanked that last game in 2018 to the saints but won by 23. with that win, they got 9th spot. Had they lost, they would off got 12th and pick 7.

We had Thomas as an Academy player, so we were going to lose it one way or another. I was disappointed we didn't trade it for a future pick or use it to get a larger pool of second round picks, I think we were pretty happy with Thomas, Taylor and Scott. Gaff had agreed to come as a free agent and the club felt getting Polec at the same time would have given the midfield the injection it needed to support Cunnington and Higgins, when Gaff pulled out we should have changed course and trade the first round pick for a future first. I think that error in judgement ended up costing the list manager his job.

But Saying that, I dont think it would of hurt North Melbourne long term Keeping Boomer Harvey for one more season. Again, I really wanted him to reach 450 games. North still could of rotated the younger players off the bench regardless if Boomer was in the Starting 18.

I mean freo are Still playing a 35 year old David Mundy and Hawks are playing a 37 year old shaun Burgoyne.

Yeah, i felt Harvey should have gone on, for a guy who was a thousand years old and well off his best footy, he still kicked 36 goals and had 15 assists and was averaging 21 disposals in his last season and I think he would have been able to provide a significant contribution.

Eventually though, we would have had to move on, same with Higgins and existing players. You just need to have a lot more natural pressure from the young group to force them out, something we did wrong is we had too many average players hold fringe roles or plodders who were depth players, the good teams use good quality young players in those roles. We needed to turn over those guys who we are doing now at 24-26 years old, you can't wait 8 years before making the call that someone is too average. These calls need to be made a lot sooner and give more opportunity to look at other prospects. There was a lack of urgency to get young players to step up to a better standard.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I think they are overdoing it at the moment. As Leigh Matthews used to say, when things are good, they're never as good as they seem and when they're bad they're never as bad as they seem.

I don't think you get anywhere by getting rid of your best players. Yes, invest in the draft, but in the meantime I would just try and keep the club together and competitive. If they actually got a decent injury run they would be a mid-ladder team.

 

[austinnn]

The title of the worst sci fi series ever created.

 

[austinnn]

Another year in the wilderness before they start a slow steady climb back to 9th yuk yuk! No but seriously about 5 wins and bottom 3 finish. Who will be worse than them? Hard to see. Essendon and Hawthorn maybe Giants.

They've got some young stars and a crocked gun. They've got a brash young coach with no discernible method and have swept away a third of their list before a compromised draft, they are not a destination club so I can't see who wants too go there. I recognise this, St Kilda had the same thing during our time at Seaford. There's no quick fix. Don't think Shaw is anything more than a caretaker hope they don't do what we did with Richardson and keep him on too long. Money as usual is the only answer, money and time.

 

[Tas]

I think they are overdoing it at the moment. As Leigh Matthews used to say, when things are good, they're never as good as they seem and when they're bad they're never as bad as they seem.

I don't think you get anywhere by getting rid of your best players. Yes, invest in the draft, but in the meantime I would just try and keep the club together and competitive. If they actually got a decent injury run they would be a mid-ladder team.

It is tough to go anywhere but downwards when you are at best a mid-ladder team, with drafts being as compromised as they are you usually miss out on the top end talent and it is harder to attract players to a mid table team than it is to a younger team near the bottom that is getting access to some of the best quality out there.

Richmond's team was built on an era of spoons and near bottom finishes, you didn't get access to Martin at #3 (2009), Cotchin #1 (2007), etc as a mid table team. I think some Richmond supporters have forgotten where the side came from, I guess 2/3rd of current Richmond supporters only hopped on the bandwagon after the first flag and forgot about the spoons and priority picks. There were some good players taken in other parts of the draft but those two marquee players are hard to get being a mid table team.

It is not like the club was built around Brandon Ellis, Lennon at 12, Corey Ellis at 12, Rioli, Higgins, Pickett, etc. Some of these are good players but not the calibre of player to build sides around and not the type of players that is going to attract players like Caddy, Pretia and Lynch wanting to go to Richmond.

It isn't about tanking for top end picks, it is more about building a side around the talent that has a hope of getting us somewhere beyond a mid-table side. The mediocre players and the players who aren't buying in to what needs to be done are just going to get in the way.

 

[Pingi29]

I do not mind Polec going if the rumour is true about why the club is moving him on

What's the rumour?

 

[apollo_creed]

thats your opinion....

So far. It seems Cerra is better out of those 3 so far as he has had a 30 disposal, 1 goal game.

LDU has had a few 20-25 disposal games.

Cam Rayner has had a lot of 10-15 disposal games. But theres a big difference...

Rayner has had kicked 20 goals and 14 behinds in 2018, then kicks 20 goals and 25 behinds in 2019 then has kicked 15 goals and 7 Behinds in 2020.


I dont think Rayner is a dud looking at those stats. Looks like a solid player to me.

So your opinion is solely based on stats (and weak ones). Compelling.

 

[Pykie]

thats your opinion....

So far. It seems Cerra is better out of those 3 so far as he has had a 30 disposal, 1 goal game.

LDU has had a few 20-25 disposal games.

Cam Rayner has had a lot of 10-15 disposal games. But theres a big difference...

Rayner has had kicked 20 goals and 14 behinds in 2018, then kicks 20 goals and 25 behinds in 2019 then has kicked 15 goals and 7 Behinds in 2020.


I dont think Rayner is a dud looking at those stats. Looks like a solid player to me.

One made the AFL 22 u/22 side, the other continually gets labelled a work in progress and "building slowly" by opposition supporters and the media.

It's always funny to read:

 

[MadMundy]

18th 0-22.

 

[Dr Tigris]

I could be very wrong, but I wonder if North will look to do a trade of a decent pick for a number of mature quality depth players that are being shaken loose this year due to list size reduction. That way they replace that mature spud group with instant AFL quality (OK only role players, but still). And if they are careful guys with great character and great role models. Instant rebuild of the team to protect the younger guys and provide them with a much better environment to develop in. Still be bottom 4, but not with the problem many clubs have of smashing their youth before they are ready.

 

[raskolnikov]

North supporters will be fine as long as they have us keeping them company down the bottom. That's more important to them than their own team winning.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

Whenever talking about Carlton's list over the past year, Gerard Whateley has always said "no team will ever do a rebuild like this again".

September 2020, Brady Rawlings walks in to prove Gerard wrong.

Some differences in the list composition between Carlton when they did it, and North now though.
Looking at who North cut, I couldn't see any of them getting regular games at any other club.

They have a talented core in that 20-23yr old group, which are going to make up the squad going forwards.

 

[Tas]

I could be very wrong, but I wonder if North will look to do a trade of a decent pick for a number of mature quality depth players that are being shaken loose this year due to list size reduction. That way they replace that mature spud group with instant AFL quality (OK only role players, but still). And if they are careful guys with great character and great role models. Instant rebuild of the team to protect the younger guys and provide them with a much better environment to develop in. Still be bottom 4, but not with the problem many clubs have of smashing their youth before they are ready.

Depends on who is available, looks like we will get Corr from GWS as a free agent, who is 26, so we aren't interested in just stacking the side with kids. I think the person would have to be seen as a longer term player, not just a short-term fill-in.

I think the problem this year was player availability more so than having too many kids, particularly not having Cunnington or Tyson available pretty much all year meant Anderson who is more a bench player than a starting 18 had to do the heavy lifting and Dumont who is a wingman had to play inside as well. We had to pull players like McDonald to play on Bontempelli, asked Polec to tag Cripps and he cracked the shits which is why he is packing his bags.

LDU had OP, didn't start to play until second half of the season, we lost Cunnington, Ziebell went down, Jacobs hasn't recovered from his sinus issues, Tyson went down, Hayden went down, Mahony, Bonar, Thomas, Walker, etc... this year was a road kill.

If Higgins stays we could potentially start the season with Goldstein(32) in the ruck, Cunnington(29) and Higgins(32) following with Tyson(27) in the middle and Hall(29) and Dumont(25) on the wing and it would be probably one of the oldest midfields in the competition.

We are just going to be better served if LDU, Simpkin, Thomas and Scott come up to speed sooner rather than later. I think we will invest heavily in the midfield over the next couple of drafts, we could take a key forward with our first pick this year but I think a lot of room has been made to look at midfield prospects for long-term. The 2021 pool seems to have a larger pool of midfielders. Some might go under the radar this year due to the disruption with the Victorian junior program.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think with sporting teams you never want to lose your competitiveness over an extended period. This is awful to watch, and damaging to developing players in that it reinforces poor expectations for them. So that is always number one, striving to compete, whatever your level is.

Then you need an eye for where your next tilt at a flag is coming from.

Balancing these two huge priorities is not easy and can change rapidly depending on relatively few things, like major injuries for example.

I think North are doing the right thing here now. I hated the Scott direction of focussing somewhat on older recruits, similar to his brother at Geelong. To me, that is a poisonous formula. For North now, any older player who offers nothing in terms of leadership or example has to go, and they are clearly doing that.

Goldstein looked shot to me by the end of the season, so if he is retained you desperately need an understudy to play some games next season then take over thereafter.

If you get a decent pick for Higgins by paying half his salary, silly not to take it. Something around pick 20 is fine.

Brown you should get a mid 20’s pick and he will do okay another club but no good at North with what should be a young developing team, he is just not strong enough. Ziebell hopefully plays more and should provide some physical presence up forward, short term.

Cunnington plus all your good young mids, you should be ok on the inside, need to sort out a couple of competitive consistent wingers.

Larkey seemed to tire as the year wore on or was sore, but he is good, and will get better.

You will go to the draft and should get 3-4 players and you will also want a couple of mature players who are struggling at other clubs.

I would say if recruiting players from other clubs don’t be afraid to pay the premium in terms of salary and picks to get the players to your club in their early 20’s. Your next ruck is surely a big priority and a 22-23yo who is ready to show something should be the target. Make an offer for a Bailey Williams or Max Lynch that their club can’t match. There will be others around as well.

Then go to the draft. Hopefully you get some good youngsters, but also a better run with injuries. Clearly your natural position wasn’t second bottom in 2020, but next year it could well be bottom 4. You don’t mind that though if you can see those two things, competitiveness, and the structure of a team that may one day win a flag.

 

[ApplecrossWC]

North supporters will be fine as long as they have us keeping them company down the bottom. That's more important to them than their own team winning.

That's not even as fun as it used to be. Essendon are too shit. There needs to be a balance where the supporters still have hope to get the big laughs when the wheels inevitably fall off.

 

[Saint]

I don't think they'll be that bad. If they get the same run of injuries, they'll be bottom.

If Cunnington plays a full season and is fit, they might get up to 10th - at best. Cunnington isn't going to be as good as he was, either. (he was very, very good).

They're going to look a lot like Essendon. Lots of good little players around the edges, but no guns and no forward fire-power.

Then Tarrant and Goldstein retire and they traded away Preuss. Not sure where their next Ruck, CHB, CHF and FF are going to come from. It's just too many important positions to fill.

 

[Mcarcherey]

Has a club ever been in more strife than North Melbourne currently are..

No coach, shedding 14 players in an off season and only bringing in 1 (Stephenson may make that 2) but what has gone out is considerably better than what has come in. Its hard to see how they field a competitive team next year.. North have few supporters and it seems like they are in for a decade of hardship after bottoming out this hard.. Can the club survive this, at what stage will the AFL be brought in to rescue and in the current fiscal era are the other AFL clubs prepared to prop them up... It may just be the push to relocate permanently to Tasmania that the AFL needs.

for a second i thought i was in the bay, but you're serious