Number 1 Draft Picks

[Lazyboy]

How many number 1 draft picks have honestly lived up to being the best player in their respective year?

How many brownlows? 1
What about leading colemans? 0
Norm Smith medals? 1

1986 - Martin Leslie (Brisbane Bears)
1987 - Richard Lounder (Richmond)
1988 - Alex McDonald (Hawthorn)
1989 - Anthony Banik (Richmond)
1990 - Stephen Hooper (Geelong)
1991 - John Hutton (Brisbane)
1992 - Drew Banfield (West Coast)
1993 - Darren Gaspar (Sydney)
1994 - Jeff White (Fremantle)
1995 - Clive Waterhouse (Fremantle)
1996 - Michael Gardiner (West Coast)
1997 - Travis Johnstone (Melbourne)
1998 - Des Headland (Brisbane Lions)
1999 - Josh Fraser (Collingwood)
2000 - Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
2001 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
2002 - Brendon Goddard (St Kilda)
2003 - Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
2004 - Brett Deledio (Richmond)
2005 - Marc Murphy (Carlton)
2006 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)
2007 - Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton)
2008 - Jack Watts (Melbourne)
2009 - Tom Scully (Melbourne)

13 years for 2 medals, I think the pick is massively over hyped and Reiwoldt being the standout.

The last decade has certainly delivered a decent group of elite footballers, but I think this proves that premierships are not won by sides getting Pick 1.

Could this be the clearest indication that a side containing multiple number 1 draft picks maybe failing to address the sides real needs later on in these drafts and resting on their morals, if they have any. Hodge is the only player taken at 1 since 2000 to win a flag at his original club hawthorn. Headland just made it on 02 after being traded to freo however he was drafted back in 98.

For me I think premierships are won and lost late in the draft, its the players that exceed expectations that give sides that extra advantage when it comes to winning flags.

The 2 greatest teams for half a century sharing in 5 premierships during the previous 10 years built these sides without needing number 1 draft picks to achieve there dominance.

In conclusion I believe the number 1 draft pick maybe more of a burden than a blessing when you start to weigh up the facts.

Thoughts?

 

[omit]

How many number 1 draft picks have honestly lived up to being the best player in their respective year?

How many brownlows? 1
What about leading colemans? 0
Norm Smith medals? 1


13 years for 2 medals, I think the pick is massively over hyped and Reiwoldt being the standout.

want to look at all australian selections and club B&F results as well?
no because that would ruin your argument

The last decade has certainly delivered a decent group of elite footballers, but I think this proves that premierships are not won by sides getting Pick 1.

no premiership is won by a single pick. this isn't basketball

Could this be the clearest indication that a side containing multiple number 1 draft picks maybe failing to address the sides real needs later on in these drafts and resting on their morals, if they have any. Hodge is the only player taken at 1 since 2000 to win a flag at his original club hawthorn. Headland just made it on 02 after being traded to freo however he was drafted back in 98.

the needs vs best available argument has been going on forever.

and only 2 of the clubs with pick one since then have played in a Grand Final. what happens if St Kilda and Carlton win the next 2 flags? suddenly 6 of those 10 picks have won grandfinals

For me I think premierships are won and lost late in the draft, its the players that exceed expectations that give sides that extra advantage when it comes to winning flags.

orly now

The 2 greatest teams for half a century sharing in 5 premierships during the previous 10 years built these sides without needing number 1 draft picks to achieve there dominance.

no but they sure had some handy father son selections

In conclusion I believe the number 1 draft pick maybe more of a burden than a blessing when you start to weigh up the facts.

Thoughts?

I believe you're talking BS

 

[Donakebab]

How is having the first pick of all of the youngsters for that year over rated?

 

[tribey]

The draft wasn't always the microscopic analysis-fest it is now, either.

Rules have changed wildly as well. Chuck in the expansion teams which saw quality players injected into the league outside the draft - Ricciuto, Hart, Modra, Rehn, McLeod, Lade, Tredrea, Wilson, P. Burgoyne, etc. not drafted.

 

[lemons123]

Really since 2000, every player picked at number 1 has gone on to become elite, or looks as thought they will eventually step up to become elite, but if you really want an indicator on how effective high draft picks are, have a look at the list of number 2 picks. There are some absolute shockers in there..

 

[Roxley]

Well to answer your question I believe only 4 players have lived up to being the best player in their respective draft, up to now anyway.

2000 - Riewoldt easily

2002 - Goddard - marginally ahead of Wells, J.Mcveigh, Mackie, K.Simpson, A.Selwood but only off the back of his great 2009 season

2003 - Cooney - Ahead of H. Shaw, S.Fisher

2005 - Murphy - Ahead of Pendlebury, Ryder, Higgins, Vince

Orders could well change come the end of their careers

Other ones still up in the air
2006 - Selwood ahead of Gibbs, hard to see this changing but nothing is impossible
2007 - Kreuzer, Masten, Palmer, Dangerfield, Rioli
abviously 2008

 

[SirJimi05]

Riewoldt is the only absolute superstar player that was taken at number 1.

Goddard is a chance to join him in the next year or so.

Then you have players like Cooney & Hodge who are excellent players but not the best in the league types. Probably top 20-30.

Wins >>>> draft picks imo but i expect Melbourne supporters will have a big sook over the OP and i look forward to it.

 

[Lazyboy]

Well to answer your question I believe only 4 players have lived up to being the best player in their respective draft, up to now anyway.

2000 - Riewoldt easily

2002 - Goddard - marginally ahead of Wells, J.Mcveigh, Mackie, K.Simpson, A.Selwood but only off the back of his great 2009 season

2003 - Cooney - Ahead of H. Shaw, S.Fisher

2005 - Murphy - Ahead of Pendlebury, Ryder, Higgins, Vince

Orders could well change come the end of their careers

Other ones still up in the air
2006 - Selwood ahead of Gibbs, hard to see this changing but nothing is impossible
2007 - Kreuzer, Masten, Palmer, Dangerfield, Rioli
abviously 2008

Goddard is still close after 7 years, and thats off the back of 1 decent season.. Not very convincing.

Murphy is a one way player, it easy to run forward all day and look special when you have no defensive side, Pendlebury is already a more accomplished all round footballer and a better team player.

I would say Reiwoldt and Cooney easy. The rest are 50/50 depending on who you talk to.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Has not been a dud since Clive Waterhouse, although Gardiner, Johnstone and Headland have had their issues, more with their heads than their talent. Prior to that you have to go back to 1991 to find another fail. Hutton and his predecessors are ancient history.

The rest since Fraser in 1999 have varied between very good and great. If you get 200 games out of your number one pick, you've done ok. Thats the breakeven mark, imo.

Pick one wont always get you the best player in the country but will rarely yield a dud either.

If you formed a side around that list you'd be very competitive - albeit of course that defenders never go with pick one!!.

 

[lemons123]

Goddard is still close after 7 years, and thats off the back of 1 decent season.. Not very convincing.

Murphy is a one way player, it easy to run forward all day and look special when you have no defensive side, Pendlebury is already a more accomplished all round footballer and a better team player.

I would say Reiwoldt and Cooney easy. The rest are 50/50 depending on who you talk to.

yeah but he was comparing to who was taken in their respective drafts. Goddard and Murphy are the best players from their respective drafts.

And goddard began to blossom in 2006, then he did his knee which set him back another year, came good towards the end of 08 and was a gun in 09. Hes had 2 and a half pretty amazing seasons.

 

[Kram]

Has not been a dud since Clive Waterhouse, although Gardiner, Johnstone and Headland have had their issues, more with their heads than their talent.

Josh Fraser is pretty shit for a number 1.

 

[Zagg]

I'm a bit biased, but I'd say Goddard is comfortably the best from his draft year (albeit being a weak draft).

I rate Murphy higher than anyone from 2005 too, although he has a bit more competition.

 

[Gozz]

Murphy is a one way player, it easy to run forward all day and look special when you have no defensive side, Pendlebury is already a more accomplished all round footballer and a better team player.

Pendlebury is no more accountable than Murphy, and it is not either of their roles to be accountable because they are attacking midfielders. They are very close and similar in their ability but Murphy is slightly better because he has a greater impact on the scoreboard.
And I would also argue that Pendlebury isn't a better team player either I don't know where you are getting that from. I'm not sure of the stats but i thought Murph is one of our top few goal assist players so yeah.

 

[XXX KINGS]

I'm a bit biased, but I'd say Goddard is comfortably the best from his draft year (albeit being a weak draft).

I rate Murphy higher than anyone from 2005 too, although he has a bit more competition.

Mate in this case you're not being biased at all, Goddard is the best of his draft by a street and then some! Absolute gun player.

 

[lemons123]

mm i cant believe a previous poster said hes only marginally ahead of wells..

 

[HibSam]

I agree that finding a 'hidden gems' late in the draft is very useful, but it's rare that the same team can consistently do it in different drafts.
But to say number 1 picks are a burden is crazy, while many don't win brownlows that doesn't mean they aint' good players, most of them turn into very good players and only help their respective teams.

FWIW, Goddard is by far the best from the '02 draft. IMO Watson would be next best.

 

[Lach72]

Has not been a dud since Clive Waterhouse,

It will be interesting to see if the next couple of 1's fair similarly as it will be a similar system to Waterhouse's draft

 

[Dazb86]

The number 1 pick is hardly a burden. Any pick in the top 5 is pretty gold IMO and you really should make the most of those picks. Really though if you look at all the good sidea this year they were built on later picks mixed with high picks. Plus rookies etc.

 

[Lazyboy]

Burden was probably not the best word to use, I agree, my bad.

However there is a trend that indicates 1 in 10 sides with a number 1 pick deliver a flag currently, based on the draft from 2000 onwards.

People seem to overate the bottoming out strategy, it just doesn't stack up in reality, the saints need to deliver to make this a 1/3 proposition.

I think it proves that you have a much higher chance of picking a decent, elite 200 game player, but premierships are won later in the draft, it would be interesting to see just how well sides like St Kilda and Carlton went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the a period of 2-3 years while they where shall we call it bottoming out.

The points I was trying to make

1, You have less than a 50% chance of picking the best player in the country with the number 1 pick, carlton have had 3, missed on Selwood, Kreuzer is still to early to call but he is anything but a standout, and Murphy maybe slightly ahead of his pack, Carlton are currently punching at 33%, I believe that can only change for the worse.

2, From 2000 if you have a number 1 draft pick you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning a flag with that player on your list.

3, Obvious that sides winning flags are mining the draft deep into the later rounds and possibly using rookie selections.

4, The bottoming out strategy is anything but proven.

 

[Tulip]

I'm a bit biased, but I'd say Goddard is comfortably the best from his draft year (albeit being a weak draft).

I rate Murphy higher than anyone from 2005 too, although he has a bit more competition.

100% agree with you about Goddard, will tear it apart next year and had a very good one this year

On the subject on Marc Murphy, I can see Bernie Vince and Pendlebury leaving him for dead next year.

For 2003, Sylvia could well become just marginally lesser than Cooney

 

[Hodgepodge]

Hodge has been the best selection of the 2001 draft.

Consider that he was the only player of Ball, Judd and Hodge to stick with his original club, and has also been unbelievable in finals.

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Injury has plagued his career and he has been forced to play in defence, but a bolstered backline may see him play his preferred role of mid/fwd in 2010 and beyond.

 

[SirJimi05]

Hodge has been the best selection of the 2001 draft.

Consider that he was the only player of Ball, Judd and Hodge to stick with his original club, and has also been unbelievable in finals.

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Injury has plagued his career and he has been forced to play in defence, but a bolstered backline may see him play his preferred role of mid/fwd in 2010 and beyond.

Umm yeah, nah. Don't think so Hodgey.

You are a pretty good defender and i would have you in the top 30 odd players in the competition but you are not in the same class as Judd.

 

[ratten7]

Burden was probably not the best word to use, I agree, my bad.

However there is a trend that indicates 1 in 10 sides with a number 1 pick deliver a flag currently, based on the draft from 2000 onwards.

People seem to overate the bottoming out strategy, it just doesn't stack up in reality, the saints need to deliver to make this a 1/3 proposition.

I think it proves that you have a much higher chance of picking a decent, elite 200 game player, but premierships are won later in the draft, it would be interesting to see just how well sides like St Kilda and Carlton went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the a period of 2-3 years while they where shall we call it bottoming out.

The points I was trying to make

1, You have less than a 50% chance of picking the best player in the country with the number 1 pick, carlton have had 3, missed on Selwood, Kreuzer is still to early to call but he is anything but a standout, and Murphy maybe slightly ahead of his pack, Carlton are currently punching at 33%, I believe that can only change for the worse.

2, From 2000 if you have a number 1 draft pick you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning a flag with that player on your list.

3, Obvious that sides winning flags are mining the draft deep into the later rounds and possibly using rookie selections.

4, The bottoming out strategy is anything but proven.

You are kidding right,

Gibbs: at the age of 20 came top ten in the Brownlow. I wouldn't call that a loss at all. Selwood is a year older and ATM considered better but the gap is rapidly closing. WIN!

Murphy: Again top ten in Brownlow and the only player at the moment from that draft that might compete is Pendles. So WIN!

Kreuzer: As you said it is too early to tell, he managed 5th best and fairest and all the signs are there that he could become a gun. There are not to many 200cm players in the history of AFL that have made the same impact in their first 2 years as Kruezer. People say that Josh kennedy and Ryder are going to be guns, however it took them 5 years to be noticed. So again Could easily be a WIN

That's 100%.

Although i must admit i would have picked Cotch, but am more than happy with Kreuzer as I can assure you your team would be rapt with him as well.

 

[Zagg]

Good as Hodge is, he's not in the same class as Judd or Ablett Jr.

 

[WALL-e]

THere are hundreds of players in the league, at least 10 #1 picks playing at a time, winning a Brownlow is extreemly difficult, you need to have skill and then a lucky year where injurys, teams etc fall your way.

The draft strike rates are getting better, you're seeing less fails in the top 10 and even the first round as recruiters get more and more resources.

Pretty much gone are the days of Hird in the 90's stuff, but you will often see talents slide with question marks, like Rich because of endurance upside and wingspan, yet bam.

I don't think anyone would trade that #1 pick mantle, as it's pretty hard to screw up atm.