Number 1 Draft Picks

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I have Fraser as the 19th best player in the 1999 draft and that is with putting him ahead of a few guys that were hard to split such as Brad Green & Bruce.

I don't think you can really call Fraser a success.

It was a pretty good draft and you can throw a blanket over some of them, but to place him ninteenth is a ludicrous proposition. I doubt there are many more than even 19 still playing today - you've basically put him last.

Only Pavlich Chapman and Corey are clearly ahead of him (as well as J Brown of course who is not comparable as he was a father-son) ,and he is at least the equal of Hasleby McPharlin Glass R Murphy Enright Bruce and Ling. He's easily in the top ten from that year.

Whatever deficiencies he has in his career have been partly due to Collingwood's recruiting and failure to provide him any support. People fail to credit his athleticism and goalkicking ability early in his career. The other guys on this list had 2-3 year apprenticeships. Fraser had 40 games up his sleeve while the rest of them were still in nappies, and rucked Collingwood solo to two consecutive Grand Finals, double teamed against bigger opponents.

 

[SirJimi05]

It was a pretty good draft and you can throw a blanket over some of them, but to place him ninteenth is a ludicrous proposition. I doubt there are many more than even 19 still playing today - you've basically put him last.

28 are still playing today. I did make a mistake by including F/S when i ranked him 19th but i very much doubt the Pies would have taken Brown at #1 anyway.

Only Pavlich Chapman and Corey are clearly ahead of him (as well as J Brown of course who is not comparable as he was a father-son) ,and he is at least the equal of Hasleby McPharlin Glass R Murphy Enright Bruce and Ling. He's easily in the top ten from that year.

I put him ahead of McPharlin & Bruce but behind Glass, Enright, Ling & Murphy.

There are also guys like ROK & Gilbee that are clearly in front of him.

 

[favourites]

No he wasn't.

He did make the victorian team that played the all stars suggesting he was either the #1 or #2 ruckman from Victoria.

 

[ratten7]

Let us not mention that Selwood came top 10 in that Brownlow and got more votes than Gibbs.

So the gap is rapidly closing eh? We have the Rising Star winner, 2 time premiership player, top 10 in the Brownlow, All Australian - with a stack of other awards (you can look it up if you are bored) vs a guy who I am not sure has won anything or done anything of significance in the game but the gap is apparently closing......

Just remember to call on me at the end of next season when Gibbs equals or even overhauls Selwood. Don't let pride get the better of you when it happens. Remember Selwood is a year older. I am not disputing that Selwood is a gun and just happens to be playing with Geelong. If he had been playing for say Melbourne, Freo or Carlton he wouldn't have many of those accolades . I have little doubt the gap is closing.

 

[SirJimi05]

He did make the victorian team that played the all stars suggesting he was either the #1 or #2 ruckman from Victoria.

And i recall there being a lot of conjecture over that decision.

Most people had David Hille as the clear choice.

I think you will also find that David Hille was ranked well ahead of Josh Fraser in AA calculations which takes the whole season into account.

David Hille beat Fraser in every single stat such as disposals, goals, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, B&F, Brownlow & He and Watson were ranked the the number 1 partnership in the competition.

I think you will be hard pressed finding too many people that can honestly say that Fraser was the best Ruckman in Victoria at that time. It was basically Sandi, Cox, Hille then quite a big gap.

Lets also not forget that Jolly is a Victorian.

 

[favourites]

And i recall there being a lot of conjecture over that decision.

Most people had David Hille as the clear choice.

I think you will also find that David Hille was ranked well ahead of Josh Fraser in AA calculations which takes the whole season into account.

David Hille beat Fraser in every single stat such as disposals, goals, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, B&F, Brownlow & He and Watson were ranked the the number 1 partnership in the competition.

I think you will be hard pressed finding too many people that can honestly say that Fraser was the best Ruckman in Victoria at that time. It was basically Sandi, Cox, Hille then quite a big gap.

Lets also not forget that Jolly is a Victorian.

Fraser was injured during the match (missed 6weeks of the year). Try looking up the stats up until that game and you will see why he was picked.

 

[ratten7]

This justifies my coment MR 747.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...1=1719&tid2=10&pid2=1725&type=A&fid1=O&fid2=O

At the same age Gibbs is ahead of most stats. So stop your ranting and face the inevitable facts.

 

[SirJimi05]

Fraser was injured during the match (missed 6weeks of the year). Try looking up the stats up until that game and you will see why he was picked.

Doesn't make a difference. Hille beat Fraser in every single stat up until the All stars game. He even gave the selectors a reminder in the game before selection by getting 30 odd possesions, 10 marks, 3 goals, 6 inside 50's and 3 brownlow votes.

The general consensus at the time was that Hille was very stiff.

This justifies my coment MR 747.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...1=1719&tid2=10&pid2=1725&type=A&fid1=O&fid2=O

At the same age Gibbs is ahead of most stats. So stop your ranting and face the inevitable facts.

Silly comparison. One guy wins his own ball whilst the other one is a link up player who gets the pill fed to him when he is 30 metres in the clear of anyone.

 

[ratten7]

Not a silly comparison at all, it sufficed for the point i was making. I didn't say they were the same type of player. Gibbs is actually ahead in many important facets of the game ie.. Marking, Goals and Tackles. I'm sure Selwood is ahead of Contested possies but Gibbs is no slouch here at all. If you think he is then you would be wrong. There's alot of upside to Gibbs game. And at the same ages (20) Gibbs stats is just as good if not better than Selwoods in many facets of the game. I am not bagging Selwood here so don't keep jumping on that wagon. Selwood is a champion and Gibbs will also be a champion. try and follow because it is ridiculous trying to defend points i didn't make.

 

[SirJimi05]

Not a silly comparison at all, it sufficed for the point i was making. I didn't say they were the same type of player. Gibbs is actually ahead in many important facets of the game ie.. Marking, Goals and Tackles

It is a silly comparison if you are only going to provide the stats in which Gibbs clearly has the upper hand. Selective use of stats doesn't do your arguement any good i'm afraid.

I'm sure Selwood is ahead of Contested possies but Gibbs is no slouch here at all. If you think he is then you would be wrong. There's alot of upside to Gibbs game.

This part i agree with. Gibbs certainly improved his attack on the ball towards the end of the season and he did start to win more of his own ball. I certainly see him improving further in this regard.

However, you can't deny that Gibbs often sets up accross half back/wing and is used as a link up player between back and forward. This results in him getting a lot of uncontested possesions. And by uncontested i mean 20m in the clear type possies.

This is not a slant on Gibbs at all. Every club needs these types and he uses the ball so well so he is very good at it. It's just for this reason that i think the possesion comparison between he and Selwood is unfair to an extent.

And at the same ages (20) Gibbs stats is just as good if not better than Selwoods in many facets of the game.

See above. Stats don't always shoe the full story. This is one of those occasions.

I am not bagging Selwood here so don't keep jumping on that wagon.

What are you talking about? It is the first reply i have made regarding the Gibbs , Selwood comparison.

Selwood is a champion and Gibbs will also be a champion. try and follow because it is ridiculous trying to defend points i didn't make

I'm not going to argue semantics but i reckon you use the word champion a little loosely.

 

[Manic]

Good work there. It seems I stand corrected. In my observation he's never been too damaging away from home however the basic possession stats say nothing of the sort

Out of interest any chance in splitting his Brownlow votes between "home" and "away"?

Cheers

No worries.

Since 2004 he got 24 brownlow votes at Subi compared to 17 votes interstate. I'd say this difference is mostly due to the fact that most of our wins are at home and umpires give more votes to winning teams, rather than any difference in his performance.

The thing about Hase is that as a slow, inside midfielder he is probably better suited to the Melbourne grounds than Subi, which favours running players.

 

[ratten7]

i'm bored of this conversation. Lets just agree to disagree. My original point was that picking Gibbs was a WIN not a LOSS as someone stated earlier. In the washup Selwood is th ebest player at this moment to come from that draft followed by Gibbs in my opinion and another point was it is still early days. Go The Blues

 

[melbournemartin]

People have raised this point over and over and over. Aren't you guys bored with it yet?

 

[ratten7]

People have raised this point over and over and over. Aren't you guys bored with it yet?

yep.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

How many number 1 draft picks have honestly lived up to being the best player in their respective year?

How many brownlows? 1

Thoughts?

I do not seriously rate the opinion of umpires!!! Gazza would now have 3 Brownlows if it was up to me! I just think the umpires' rating of players means jack shit. Honestly.

But yeah apart from that your OP has merit.

 

[SirJimi05]

i'm bored of this conversation. Lets just agree to disagree. My original point was that picking Gibbs was a WIN not a LOSS as someone stated earlier. In the washup Selwood is th ebest player at this moment to come from that draft followed by Gibbs in my opinion and another point was it is still early days. Go The Blues

Of course it is a win for Carlton. As Timmy said earlier if you can nail one of the best 3-4 players in the draft at pick #1 and he plays 200 games, you have done well.

At this stage Gibbs is only behind Selwood and looks certain to play 200 games so it is a win.

 

[doppleganger]

Doesn't make a difference. Hille beat Fraser in every single stat up until the All stars game. He even gave the selectors a reminder in the game before selection by getting 30 odd possesions, 10 marks, 3 goals, 6 inside 50's and 3 brownlow votes.

The general consensus at the time was that Hille was very stiff.

What is it with Dons fans and Hille v Fraser comparisons??

Fraser has played 40 more games, averages more disposals, marks, tackles, goals per game over his career also.

Fraser when fit is a much better player, tis a shame that Josh being that good as a kid meant that he was thrown to the wolves right from the start...Josh had played 90 games at the end of the 2003 and helped push the club to back to back GFs. Since then he has suffered from constant knee problems, no surprises when a skinny kid is playing as a KP player from the get go.....notice how these days clubs let the young KP players develop and get physically mature before playing them......they dont want their future star being crippled like Fraser.

But yeah, one almost AA season from Hille, makes up for Fraser being better for an entire decade!

 

[SirJimi05]

What is it with Dons fans and Hille v Fraser comparisons??

Fraser has played 40 more games, averages more disposals, marks, tackles, goals per game over his career also.

But yeah, one almost AA season from Hille, makes up for Fraser being better for an entire decade!

What is it with Pies fans beng so touchy about Fraser??

A coment was made that Fraser was the best ruckman in Victoria in 2008 and i disagreed.

Hille was significantly better as was Darren Jolly.

I think you will have a hard time finding many neutrals that disagree with this.

 

[doppleganger]

What is it with Pies fans beng so touchy about Fraser??

A coment was made that Fraser was the best ruckman in Victoria in 2008 and i disagreed.

Hille was significantly better as was Darren Jolly.

I think you will have a hard time finding many neutrals that disagree with this.

Fraser was the bloke who played in the game for Victoria, was the best ruck on the ground until he again hurt his knee...and then for the rest of the year he was in and out of the team and struggling.

Fraser has been treated harshly by all, Collingwood supporters are ridiculously harsh on him, because the expectation on him was way too high.

Ie you rating him the 19th best performed player from the draft...pull the other one

 

[SirJimi05]

Fraser was the bloke who played in the game for Victoria, was the best ruck on the ground until he again hurt his knee...and then for the rest of the year he was in and out of the team and struggling.

Good for him. He wasn't in and out of the team for the rest of the year. He missed 5 games and then came back in and played every game. Also, apart from his first game back his stats were actually better in the second half of the season.

Fraser has been treated harshly by all, Collingwood supporters are ridiculously harsh on him, because the expectation on him was way too high.

True to an extent. Being pick #1 carries a lot of pressure and expectation but i think a lot of people think he is too soft. I am one of them. I like Ruckman who have physical presence. Fraser gets pushed around like a little ragdoll, gets outmarked by guys half his size, and has totally squibbed it on quite a few occasions.

Ie you rating him the 19th best performed player from the draft...pull the other one

If you have a look at the names in that draft you will find it was a pretty strong draft. I have him below the obvious players like Pavlich, Chapman, Brown, Corey, ROK, Gilbee and a few others and also rate him below guys like Leon Davis.

You could make a case for him being above some of them but i don't think you can categorically say he is better than any of them.

However, you can categorically say that he is definitely not in the best 7-8 players from that draft and i don't think you could argue against it.

 

[doppleganger]

If you have a look at the names in that draft you will find it was a pretty strong draft. I have him below the obvious players like Pavlich, Chapman, Brown, Corey, ROK, Gilbee and a few others and also rate him below guys like Leon Davis.

You could make a case for him being above some of them but i don't think you can categorically say he is better than any of them.

However, you can categorically say that he is definitely not in the best 7-8 players from that draft and i don't think you could argue against it.

Josh missed the rnd 8 game against the saints, after the all star game....then was back for 4 weeks and clearly below par in those games.....he then missed 5 weeks.......so the 10 weeks after the all-star game were influenced by his knee.....in the first 7 rnd Josh was averaging 14 disposals and 17 HOs per game......Hille in his super almost AA season averaged 16 disp and 18 HOs!

You are looking at recent times and not entire career.

L.Davis has been great in the last 2-3 years, but in the previous 7 seasons he was not that great, Josh has had better seasons in 6 of the 10 years they have been in the black and white!

Compare entire careers, not recent 2-3 seasons

 

[SirJimi05]

You are looking at recent times and not entire career.

L.Davis has been great in the last 2-3 years, but in the previous 7 seasons he was not that great, Josh has had better seasons in 6 of the 10 years they have been in the black and white!

Compare entire careers, not recent 2-3 seasons

Ok if you say so. Over entire careers there are atleast 7 players that are well in front of Josh. I don't think anyone can dispute this.

Going by the criteria that many have agreed on in this thread (#1 pick being in best 3-4 + playing 200 games) i think we can still safely say that Fraser has not been a pass as a number 1 pick.

 

[krayfesh]

Ok if you say so. Over entire careers there are atleast 7 players that are well in front of Josh. I don't think anyone can dispute this.

Going by the criteria that many have agreed on in this thread (#1 pick being in best 3-4 + playing 200 games) i think we can still safely say that Fraser has not been a pass as a number 1 pick.

Kinda.

Fraser was a good pick because he was invaluable to Collingwood.

Apart from Pavlich, who would turn any team into God tier, Fraser was perfect for Collingwood and is a win for them.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Ok if you say so. Over entire careers there are atleast 7 players that are well in front of Josh. I don't think anyone can dispute this.

Going by the criteria that many have agreed on in this thread (#1 pick being in best 3-4 + playing 200 games) i think we can still safely say that Fraser has not been a pass as a number 1 pick.

Thats a lot different to placing him 19th. If you get a top ten player with your number one pick you've done all right. He's well on the way to 200 games with 191 racked up. Not great, but certainly not disastrous. Its a lot closer to a success than a failure.

People forget his early career. He played 108 games in the ruck in his first five seasons. I doubt anybody from that draft had a better start to their careers, and none of them had to play ruck. A dicky knee has slowed him down in the past 3-4 seasons.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

geeez, Goddard didn't have to try hard to become the best player of his draft. Up to 10 guys from the 2001 draft are better than him (Ablett, Judd, Hodge, Bartel, Dal Santo, Stevie J etc.)

Just pointing out this fail.

Nothin to be ashamed of being behind those guys regardless. They're all superstars.

I reckon Goddard will surpass all but Judd and Ablett next year though.