Will get hammered with world pools
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Racing October Daily Punt: Planting a Cup on top of Everest
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iluvparis
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I think it has to start shorter given that it will be $1.30 in the world pool and is a genuine $1.50 chance.
Against that the local market couldn't properly rate a good foreign horse if they tried - Dubai Honour jumped $7 in the Ranvet and they truckloaded Montefilia and Mounga lol
RW is giving significant weight to some competitors. I think he’s poor value at $2.30.
I took Right You Are each way at $19/$4.5 (best value in the race IMO)
Soulcombe @ $9
Don’t mind Osipenko @ $7.8
They’re great value getting 4-5 lengths off RW at the weights.
I took Right You Are each way at $19/$4.5 (best value in the race IMO)
Soulcombe @ $9
Don’t mind Osipenko @ $7.8
They’re great value getting 4-5 lengths off RW at the weights.
iluvparis
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Utterly terrible analysis. Right You Are is rated 6.5kg below RW and gets only 4kg off here. It has absolutely no chance of winning
RW is absolutely thrown in against everything
Osipenko can’t get within 2 lengths of winning a g1 and you want to take $7.80 against a horse that has repeatedly destroyed international fields? It is one of the worst bets at that price of all time. It’s a 15/1 shot at best.
Anyone who thinks Soulcombe is a single figures chance against romantic warrior had no clue
We’ll see. Timeform only has 10 pounds between RW & Right You Are’s Underwood run. The numbers don’t lie. RW also only has 8 pounds over Soulcombe & 7 over Osipenko. I’d be very nervous taking the short odds on RW if I were you.
RW is a bet in the Cox Plate, not the Turnbull.
What?
Riddle me this , how would RYA go against the best quality overseas ? I’ll tell you , it’d go full Golden Pal at Royal Ascot
RW has performed and beaten against high quality , remember what Dubai H did to our best?….. well RW when meeting DH murdered him
Romantic Warrior will walk this in
iluvparis
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It’s not losing the turnbull and winning the cox plate. It’s a 1.50 shot here and is an utter moral against the local b graders.
‘Only 10 pounds’ ? That is an absolute gulf in class. Anyone tipping against it really has no ability to judge international form properly. But we have known that is the case in australia for some time
Historical outcomes also suggest that our ratings are 3-5 pounds to high as raiders with similar ratings almost always prove superior on arrival
Of course RYA would get demolished by those horses at equal weights! No one is debating that.
But now he gets a 4kg advantage, so the gap between them closes significantly.
iluvparis
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Yes he’ll probs get beat 2 or 3 rather than 5 or 6
It’ll be lucky to finish within 5 lengths of RW
10 pounds is only 4.5kg. And he’s getting a 4kg advantage. Might be closer than you think.
iluvparis
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10 pounds is 5kg in racing parlance
Not far off the mark. There would actually be 6.25 lengths at equal weights. Reduced to ~1 length now
iluvparis
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4 kgs reducing 5.5 lengths is extremely generous
Don’t shoot the messenger. That’s how racing handicapping has been for 100 years. That’s how ratings are calculated.
iluvparis
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Most people work with 1 kg = 1 length these days.
But using your numbers on OR he needs 6.5 kgs and is getting 4 so should get beat about 3 lengths. Seems right
R2 Flem BLUE ILLUSION
Get on!
Get on!
toxic
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Cardinal Gem died this morning in a track accident
Owners devastated
Owners devastated
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That Snowden colt was pretty impressive.
Yeh that's it for Kah favs anymore she just don't have whatever she had
Couple of my non fav bets for today;
Syd 3 - Gan Teorainn @6
Melb 7 - Alaskan God E/W @14
Darwin 5 - Ideas Man @ 4.20
Syd 3 - Gan Teorainn @6
Melb 7 - Alaskan God E/W @14
Darwin 5 - Ideas Man @ 4.20
What’s West Wind Blows main target this spring?
