WaynesWorld19
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Discussion Official 2021 Fantasy Planning Thread
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- Aug 22, 2009
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- Aug 22, 2009
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Cheers
I'm just wondering on people's thinking...
I see many people talking about uber premos being overpriced, and likely to drop in value at the start of the season, so they are not going to start with them. Someone said this about Gawn a few posts back.
What is your concern about Gawn dropping in price? Are you planning on trading him out?
Guys like Neale, Gawn and Llllloooooyd are in my team, and I plan on them being there for the entire season, so their price movements are pretty much irrelevant to me. They are there to score me points week in, week out, and to be Captain options.
The only time it would matter is if you were forced to trade them out due to injury, and if you start planning your team around possible injuries, you're going to drive yourself nuts. Let's say Max does drop 100K in the first few weeks, and then gets injured. Now he's only at 844K, meaning you can still get any ruck in the game except Grundy. If he drops 200K, then the only ones you can't afford are Grundy, ROB and Goldy. You can still get all the lower priced options people are talking about like Witts, Hickey, Flynn, Oscar and Nank.
If you're planning on Gawn's price dropping so you can pick him up cheaply in a few weeks, good luck with that. Fantasy is littered with stories like that where people never managed to get a chance to upgrade later on because of forced trades due to injuries, suspensions and Reltons.
My thinking is that I get 22 rounds to trade, and I want 22 premos on the field by the end of the season. If I can start with 11 premos that I think will still be there at the end, it means I need to upgrade one player every second week. I write off the first few weeks, as unless a couple of 170K rookies post scores of 150+, I won't have the coin to upgrade, so now we're down to about 18 weeks for 11 upgrades.
As I've said before, I've never won a car or even a hat, so I'm interested in what people are thinking.
I see many people talking about uber premos being overpriced, and likely to drop in value at the start of the season, so they are not going to start with them. Someone said this about Gawn a few posts back.
What is your concern about Gawn dropping in price? Are you planning on trading him out?
Guys like Neale, Gawn and Llllloooooyd are in my team, and I plan on them being there for the entire season, so their price movements are pretty much irrelevant to me. They are there to score me points week in, week out, and to be Captain options.
The only time it would matter is if you were forced to trade them out due to injury, and if you start planning your team around possible injuries, you're going to drive yourself nuts. Let's say Max does drop 100K in the first few weeks, and then gets injured. Now he's only at 844K, meaning you can still get any ruck in the game except Grundy. If he drops 200K, then the only ones you can't afford are Grundy, ROB and Goldy. You can still get all the lower priced options people are talking about like Witts, Hickey, Flynn, Oscar and Nank.
If you're planning on Gawn's price dropping so you can pick him up cheaply in a few weeks, good luck with that. Fantasy is littered with stories like that where people never managed to get a chance to upgrade later on because of forced trades due to injuries, suspensions and Reltons.
My thinking is that I get 22 rounds to trade, and I want 22 premos on the field by the end of the season. If I can start with 11 premos that I think will still be there at the end, it means I need to upgrade one player every second week. I write off the first few weeks, as unless a couple of 170K rookies post scores of 150+, I won't have the coin to upgrade, so now we're down to about 18 weeks for 11 upgrades.
As I've said before, I've never won a car or even a hat, so I'm interested in what people are thinking.
Ye
Yes the price movements are irrelevant if you don't plan on moving them on, but the point is you can use the extra money you save on picking a value guy to spend more elsewhere, thereby increasing your scoring.
It depends on if you're going for rank or just league play, but if you're going for rank. You have 22 spots on ground that need to score, think of them as 22 cylinders in an engine, or 22 wolves in a pack whatever. While by the end of the season you obviously want to have the best 22 players available, that's not possible at round 1. While it might seem better to go these big guys who you guarantee are going to be in your 22 at the end of the season, you may not have the money available to make your remaining 18 players as best as they can be (at round 1). Like an engine with a ****ed spark plug or a wolf pack with a lame or old wolf, your whole team will be slowed down despite the four superstars you have. In contrast, if you only buy players with upside in their price (at round 1), you can spread the team out more and turn that rookie who could have poor job security or limited scoring into a mid pricer or an underpriced premium. Its obviously a balancing game, and sometime rookies can outperform or match midpricers, but all the best teams pick value in almost every line.
The only two players I'm looking at at the moment who might not have value are Lloyd and Gawn and even then I think they can hold their average.
Neale will come nowhere near my team. Is a 105avg player his career and only exploded due to huge time on ground and no one focussing on him (he had an average second half to the year once people cottoned on). He will drop in price dramatically and may not even be a Top 8 mid.
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bl4ke
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Just my two cents:
The top priced players are heavily overpriced, due to being priced at what AFL Fantasy estimates they would have averaged if games were full length last season.
eg-
Gawn: Priced at 123.5, only has a highest average of 111.3 in full length game seasons.
Neale: Priced at 122.5, only has a highest average of 111.1 in full length game seasons.
Lloyd: Priced at 114, only has a highest average of 107 in full length game seasons.
Yep, a concern for sure.
bl4ke
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Still had the highest CBA's for GWS' midfield and scored an estimated 130
Yep, two sides of a coin there.
Traditionally that was the strategy especially when you only had 20 trades for the whole year. With the 2 trades per week now (3 in byes) you've got the flexibility throughout the year to be more aggressive with your trades.
The general rule now with your starting side is you want to prioritise players who are under-priced and who will improve on their average. If you look back at the winners in the last 5-6 years or so (and probably beyond that to be fair), generally they only have 2 or 3 players out of the 30 that won't improve on their average that year. So someone like Neale is priced at 122 this year. Realistically given his improvement last year mainly came from additional TOG% from the shortened quarters, he'll drop back this year to probably 110-115. Even though that's still good enough for a Top 8 midfield spot, he'll likely lose you probably 100k in value (and maybe more if he gets tagged out/injured). This will make it cheaper for everyone else to grab him at some stage. What you are better off doing is finding someone who is priced around 95-105 that you think can push into the Top 8 mids instead and take the extra coin and build your side up with value everywhere. If you do this with a few premiums you get the extra cash to get in an extra mid-price player or even an extra premium.
The exception to this rule has generally been the rucks as there is only 2 players there and in the last few years its been Gawn/Grundy dominating those spots. So you can safely pick those two as 'set and forgot' and hope they don't miss games. This year though that combo sets you back 14% of your overall salary compared to around 10-12% in previous years. Couple that with O'Brien emerging as a good option as well and Gawn being priced higher than he'll probably sustain over the year for the same reason as Neale and you can look elsewhere. Although you will likely burn some trades there.
In saying all this, there is no strategy that is guaranteed to work for Top 100 finish and a shot at the car. But prioritising value with the majority of selections and ensuring you've got 2-3 solid captain options is the best way to setup.
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Sound logic but obviously can't work for every pick. At some point we need to pick some value. Just think of it in terms of $$$ per point scored. If you dont have Lloyd, then what does that money saved do for you? If it results in more points its likely a good move.
Lloyd/Neale I feel are both likely to lose some coin at some point and will be a trade-up target at that time during the year for that reason.
Gawn might drop up to $100-150k but will still be hard to get at any point. And will score really well. He'll score +10 per game on everyone barring maybe ROB (probably including ROB).
So Gawn is probably the one I'm trying to squeeze in and accept I'm paying overs. I think you can do it with one player and lock them in as perma captain for the season. If Gawn goes and averages 115+ for the year as perma captain then I've killed the pig as far as that selection goes.
Easier said than done of course... it's really tough to squeeze max into the squad atm.
bol316
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What they all said. Its all about gaining team value. If I start Witts (can't imagine him scoring so low again) and he gains like 150-200K, thats value I have added to my team. On top of the cash I was able to use elsewhere to start the year. Im very big on starting with almost all (if not all) players I think will rise in value. The only ones I don't see gaining much (on my team) are Grundy and Adams. But I got them to be captain options.
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Realistically have far ahead of ROB will Gawn be?
Those first 6 games of Max could be huge and out you right of Car/top 100 contention if he goes clean off like expected
Those first 6 games of Max could be huge and out you right of Car/top 100 contention if he goes clean off like expected
bol316
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I also prefer to start with the cheapest players I think will end up in my rolling 22. Minimal risk of losing value IMO
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Season long I think ROB will go close to being something around 5 points off Gawn's avg. I can see ROB 110 and Gawn 115.
I absolutely wouldn't start Gawn if he didn't have those ridiculous fixtures to start off with. My dilemma is exactly what you said. Say he averages 130+ in the first month and a bit, with owners captaining for the Meek and Flynn matchups, that could be absolutely devastating for the coaches who start without.
I'm very much on the fence with this one
bl4ke
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ROB's start to the season isn't the worst either
Round 1 - Rhys Stanley (has recorded 128 vs cats previously)
Round 2 - Tom Hickey (will smash him in all areas of the game)
Round 3 - Witts (adjusted 117.5 last season vs Witts)
Round 4 - Goldstein (may struggle, but still scored an adjusted 101 last season)
Round 5 - Meek/Darcy (will go huge, has a 120 on dockers previously)
Round 6 - Big Boy/Ceglar (adjusted 127.5 on hawks last season)
Round 7 - Flynn (will give the rookie a bath, adjusted 126 vs giants last season)
Taranto played a full game, including the second half when both clubs decided to play the kids. I’ve got question marks on his first half in particular when GWS appeared to play their strongest side and midfield group which was consistently Flynn, Jelly, Cogs and one of Green/Hopper/Taranto.
Hopefully we find more out next week
I wouldn’t readjust to squeeze Gawn in if you’ve already got a couple captain options.
116k between Gawn and ROB is the difference between a Cumming type scoring (~70) and an Alex Pearce type scoring (~40).
116k between Gawn and ROB is the difference between a Cumming type scoring (~70) and an Alex Pearce type scoring (~40).
bl4ke
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Grundy
Year Games Average
ROB
Obviously age has to be taken into consideration here, ROB was many years older than Grundy when he debuted. But ROB just seems primed to go to that elite 115+ ruck category this season
Year Games Average
2013 | 6 | 70.3 |
2014 | 15 | 60.7 |
2015 | 19 | 91.1 |
2016 | 21 | 100.9 |
2017 | 20 | 106.2 |
2018 | 22 | 120.0 |
2019 | 22 | 122.1 |
2020 | 17 | 113* |
ROB
Obviously age has to be taken into consideration here, ROB was many years older than Grundy when he debuted. But ROB just seems primed to go to that elite 115+ ruck category this season
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If ROB gets within 5 of Max than you’d be better off starting ROB I guess. His early fixtures are pretty decent too. Hmmm. This is tough
- Mar 11, 2019
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All this Ruck talk has me thinking maybe i should start Max and Rob and leave Grundy out just to be different 
The different part isn't really true but they both have a really good start to the year which makes both tempting
The different part isn't really true but they both have a really good start to the year which makes both tempting
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Your structure looks really good. I dont think its too mid-pricey... its probably whats needed this year.
Probably can't suggest a heck of a lot for your until we get to the next round of scratch matches.
If the latest DT Talk podcast can be believed, Highmore not likely for a round 1 debut at this stage.
To fix that I'd suggest Ash -> Cumming (probably scores the same anyway) and Highmore -> DGB.
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