News Oh wow, oh heavy, heavy, heavy - Lachie Neale trade thread (5, 19 & 55 for Neale & 30)

[jackess]

Also - if our first ends up being around 10-12 and we’ve just downgraded it 10 spots or so to GC’s second we are really laughing.

Usually a pretty big difference though between the quality of players at 10-15 and the ones available at 20-25.

 

[Viceregal]

Longer maybe a bridge too far ...

Hopefully one day someone good will want to come to us and we will say no because we don't need them!

 

[Hollow Knight]

Did we keep our second rounder this year in addition to the Suns one?

 

[Viceregal]

Did we keep our second rounder this year in addition to the Suns one?

According to the website we got in Pies First, GC second and Freo third and sent our first to GC and fourth to North so guess we did keep it.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Gives us a bit to play with if we like someone earlier in the first round.

 

[iBeng]

He goes alright.

 

[dlanod]

Usually a pretty big difference though between the quality of players at 10-15 and the ones available at 20-25.

It's about a 50% chance to get a 100 game player in the second half of the first round.

Underselling pick 19 as a pick 21-30 and evaluating the returns gets you two 33% and a 20% (Hawthorn's third) chances to get 100 game players. That works out better - you've only got a 35% of busting on every pick, as opposed to a 50% chance to bust on the single pick.

 

[briztoon]

Well on current form, that GC second round pick isn’t so early at the moment, especially if you factor in possible compensation picks and maybe 3 father son and academy bids coming in before it.

Trading out our first rounder next year for 2 early seconds and a third still seems a bit rough but this trade looks a ripper.

Picking up an elite footballer at his prime is just an opportunity you can’t pass up. Could end up our best footballer since the early 2000s

Technically it was a late first, which was West Coasts 2018 first round pick originally, then GC’s 2019 second and Freo’s 2019 third.

 

[Hollow Knight]

It's about a 50% chance to get a 100 game player in the second half of the first round.

Underselling pick 19 as a pick 21-30 and evaluating the returns gets you two 33% and a 20% (Hawthorn's third) chances to get 100 game players. That works out better - you've only got a 35% of busting on every pick, as opposed to a 50% chance to bust on the single pick.

How far back do those averages go? Feels like improvements in recruiting and junior development has made things a bit less risky these days.

Second round picks excite me more than they used to.

 

[Fatcat08]

Did we keep our second rounder this year in addition to the Suns one?

certainly did. Only issue is its currently pick 35!

 

[jackess]

It's about a 50% chance to get a 100 game player in the second half of the first round.

Underselling pick 19 as a pick 21-30 and evaluating the returns gets you two 33% and a 20% (Hawthorn's third) chances to get 100 game players. That works out better - you've only got a 35% of busting on every pick, as opposed to a 50% chance to bust on the single pick.

I think also with the position our club is in we’d rather one B+ footballer than 2 B grade footballers. Although I guess with the 2 picks you reduce the risk of not picking up at least one decent footballer

 

[briztoon]

Usually a pretty big difference though between the quality of players at 10-15 and the ones available at 20-25.

I know it’s early in the season, but the talk from those who watch the kids and draft is that after about pick 10 - 12, it’s a pretty even draft crop and goes a bit deeper than normal. Possibly out to 30+.

It’s a very heavily dominated by Vic metro kids, with few SA and WA kids, with fewer Vic country kids.

 

[Tom14]

How far back do those averages go? Feels like improvements in recruiting and junior development has made things a bit less risky these days.

Second round picks excite me more than they used to.

Good currency to pick up players via trade too if we take that route.

 

[Milux]

Spud. Delist.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Also - if our first ends up being around 10-12 and we’ve just downgraded it 10 spots or so to GC’s second we are really laughing.

On top of that it helped us nab two first rounders for Beams. Gold Coast may be hatching a plan to do a Tonya Harding on Neale. I'm sure they expected a pick in the range of 4-8

 

[Hollow Knight]

On top of that it helped us nab two first rounders for Beams. Gold Coast may be hatching a plan to do a Tonya Harding on Neale. I'm sure they expected a pick in the range of 4-8

Yeah it ultimately feels like the overall win factor of our entire trade week depends a lot on how close we finish to Collingwood on the ladder and how high or low that is.

 

[bungalow_bill]

How far back do those averages go? Feels like improvements in recruiting and junior development has made things a bit less risky these days.

Second round picks excite me more than they used to.

Witherden McStay Gardiner Cox - handy types

 

[dlanod]

How far back do those averages go? Feels like improvements in recruiting and junior development has made things a bit less risky these days.

Second round picks excite me more than they used to.

Correct, long way back (90s IIRC).

 

[irel]

certainly did. Only issue is its currently pick 35!

Ohh shit that's low. When do you think we need to go and recover the lid and screw it back on and dare I say it start tanking for a higher second round pick?

 

[Tom14]

Ohh shit that's low. When do you think we need to go and recover the lid and screw it back on and dare I say it start tanking for a higher second round pick?

We definitely wouldn’t want it to be pick 36 at the end of the year - with academies etc it could end up in the late 40s!!!

 

[briztoon]

We definitely wouldn’t want it to be pick 36 at the end of the year - with academies etc it could end up in the late 40s!!!

Look, I'm a draft watcher and draft nut, and I'm not onboard with that line of thinking.

Pick 36 means we won the whole damn shamozle, walking off the G with confetti in our mouth.

 

[Viceregal]

Look, I'm a draft watcher and draft nut, I'm not onboard with that line of thinking.

Pick 36 means we won the whole damn shamozle, walking off the G with confetti in our mouth.

I am ok with that deal

 

[luthor]

I am ok with that deal

Anyone would think that you're more interested in Premierships than Draft picks.

Shame.

 

[briztoon]

I am ok with that deal

Me to. That was the point of my post. I missed an "and" that sort of changes the point of my post.

Tom14 is the guy who said we wouldn't want it being pick 36.

 

[Tom14]

Me to. That was the point of my post. I missed an "and" that sort of changes the point of my post.

Tom14 is the guy who said we wouldn't want it being pick 36.