Just my opinion on why I thoungt the Swans will win.As opposed to the Hawks in the Qualifying Final?
Good luck to your team on Saturday, I'm hoping for a great game!
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Just my opinion on why I thoungt the Swans will win.As opposed to the Hawks in the Qualifying Final?
Quite a bit of arrogance from the Hawks fans in this thread, as though they think it's as good as over.
Forget the media hyperbole for a minute, and consider the facts:
1. Hawthorn fell in against the "undeserving" Crows, while Sydney dominated Collingwood.
2. Sydney dominated the Crows, on the Crows home ground, only 2 weeks before Hawthorn nearly lost to the Crows on the Hawks home ground.
3. Buddy Franklin MAY be cited for the late hit and may miss the GF.
4. Hodge - obviously a doubt to return.
5. Schoenmakers - terribly out of form as future Lion Kurt Tippet showed.
6. Only a few weeks ago Sydney dominated Hawthorn, keeping them goalless to 1/4 time before a flat spot from the usually reliable Swans let hawthorn back in.
7. They can't catch Lewis Jetta, a player made for the wider MCG, rather than the postage stamp SCG.
8. LRT
9. Hawthorn, since 08, have built up an impressive record of choking in finals. It could be argued that only umpires got them through the prelim this year.
10. Sydney spent most of the year top of the ladder, Hawks only there for 2 weeks this year. In 2012, Sydney have been the best team, as proven also by -
11. When they met earlier in the year, at Hawthorn's Tasmanian "fortress", the Swans annihilated them.
Hawthorn are favourites for two reasons:
1. The books to a man took a lot of money on hawks for the flag earlier in the year and all have Hawthorn as worst result, and -
2. The year long Hawthorn media wankfest.
The odds do not reflect reality. Sydney have dominated Hawthorn when they've met, are the better team and should be flag favourites.
And I believe sensible, objective Hawks fans would know this.
Duritz you can kiss your moderator probation goodbye. Showing this sort of disrespect is not an ideal career advancement strategy.
Having read your analysis, I think I can reveal your media identity. You are Paul Roos.
Didn't Chief share the meat tray I sent to the mods lounge?
Chief doesn't share, Duritz.
Did you include a ham?Jeez... I sent three trays. One tray had a pile of salami as high as a car, a second had cheeses and dips and sausages and and 14 types of bacon. The third had Coles party pies and a note saying "give this one to the mods, keep the good shit for yourself. You deserve it big man."
You saying he kept the lot???
Did you include a ham?
Sydney can't afford to be 5+ goals below their best, yet the numbers say that's the case at the MCG:
Last 5 years
Avg score at MCG: 76
Avg score against: 96
Avg score elsewhere: 94
Avg score against: 81
In that period they've won once from 13 games, against a rudderless Richmond marking time with a caretaker coach. I can't explain the technical reasons for it, but the numbers say they can't play the MCG. Hawthorn have them covered for talent, are just as hard at the ball when the mood takes them, had their wake-up call last week and will get the job done comfortably.
Ron, I hope you are correct.
How do you see the rain impacting on the result, if at all?
I can't decide whether it helps Hawthorn (negating the opportunity for 'slingshot' goals) or Sydney (making the game tighter and giving the Swans an opportunity to play the Roos style lock down, contested football)
Had heard it might rain but hadn't looked at the forecast until now. Has to be in Sydney's favour as it would slow the game down and impact skill level. Actually it does change the picture a bit.
We hadn't beaten Collingwood for 7 years (11 straight games as everyone knows) until last Friday. Past records are meaningless to some extent, especially after the opening bounce. Happy for everyone to keep writing us off though.Sydney can't afford to be 5+ goals below their best, yet the numbers say that's the case at the MCG:
Last 5 years
Avg score at MCG: 76
Avg score against: 96
Avg score elsewhere: 94
Avg score against: 81
In that period they've won once from 13 games, against a rudderless Richmond marking time with a caretaker coach. I can't explain the technical reasons for it, but the numbers say they can't play the MCG. Hawthorn have them covered for talent, are just as hard at the ball when the mood takes them, had their wake-up call last week and will get the job done comfortably.
We hadn't beaten Collingwood for 7 years (11 straight games as everyone knows) until last Friday. Past records are meaningless to some extent, especially after the opening bounce. Happy for everyone to keep writing us off though.
Yes, this concerns me somewhat. People think breaking the pies hoodoo and breaking the MCG hoodoo are independent events, so figure the chances of doing both are very small. But really, the fact that they beat the Pies hoodoo probably shows they are in better form than they have been while the hoodoo remained, so they are in fact more likely to be in a position to break the MCG hoodoo compared to the past (to the extent that either hoodoo is form related, which to a degree they must be).
I hold on to the hope that the MCG hoodoo is a bit more about team structure, and building a team around a game plan that works best at the SCG. Sydney do have a plan B these days, but the majority of their team was still built up with the SCG in the back of the recruiter's mind, and we haven't seen enough of the plan B at the MCG to assess it properly yet. Strategically, it will be an interesting game I think. I still think if both teams play at their best, the Hawk's best is a bit better (more top-end talent), but a wet day could even that up. While I think it is still obvious why Hawk's are favourites (more consistent team in the lead up to finals and question marks on swans MCG game plan), Sydney are probably still good value at their current price.
This year is eerily similar to the year Geelong scrapped through against the pies in the prelim and then came out and smashed port the next week. The swans game plan will not suit the MCG, there is too much wide open space to contain the hawks. All the pressure will be off the hawks after last week and they should tear the game open. Only thing that will keep this game tight will be the weather. Form through the year means little, Port beat Geelong at the end of the season and look how that game ended up.
So if Sydney do not win there will be no tears from their fans?Oh it'll be windy all right. It'll be gusty. Forecast calls for 45km winds gusting up to 60km with a 95% chance of localised tears falling should Hawthorn get beat.
So if Sydney do not win there will be no tears from their fans?
Ok dude we get it you want Sydney to win.
But do you have to point it out in every thread.
We get it, we really do.