Oppo Camp Opposition Watch
- Thread starter kreglze
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17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes, Powell are our investments in the future of our midfield.
Ainsworth wasn't picked at #4 on a whim and he's already stepped up to become part of the midfield rotation.
Scrimshaw copped a fractured cheek in the NEAFL, but came back to play two high possession games on the ball instead of in defence, so watch for him to come into the senior side some time in the final 10 games if he can remain injury free and continue to impress.
Brodie is playing consistently good football in the NEAFL and will have another chance to push for senior selection during the week, so hopefully he can lift to hold his spot permanently.
Bowes is an outside midfielder in development playing in defence, but will need to lift his game after turning in some ordinary games lately.
Powell will be a project until 2019, but when he matures into a player's body he could be better than any of these guys.
17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
The Demons will shape the Top 8. Their next 6 games are against teams just outside the top 8, which helps the Suns because those are teams we need to catch up to. In their final 6 games, the Dees face the Cats, who they should have beaten in Round 1, the Crows in Adelaide, Sydney at the MCG, the Suns at Metricon, West Coast in WA and then GWS at the MCG. They could conceivably finish on top of the ladder and after winning 5 straight they are the form team of the comp.
- Jun 14, 2014
- 1,526
- 1,858
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
I am eerily pretty good at reading the future, sometimes scarily so:
"1. West Coast
2. GWS
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. Gold Coast, St Kilda, or Melbourne
11. Collingwood
12. Essendon
13. Fremantle
14. Richmond
15. North Melbourne
16. Port Adelaide
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane" (posted 2017, guessing the ladder)
ref:https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/vent-offtopic.992906/page-127#post-49200783
"The Bulldogs have a potentially dangerous side in the works, too - not just their top-end talent - but lesser known defenders like Easton Wood who seemingly fly under the radar of opposition supporters despite being exceptional." (posted April 14th, 2015 - the season Easton Wood won his first AA)
ref: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/review-v-saints.1092211/page-15#post-37947978
"He's not doing that impressive. It's all hype and no substance.
Not a single mark taken, not a single tackle made, hardly any Hit Outs for a #1 ruckman, a small handful of clearances, a behind... he's not exactly setting the world on fire...
I genuinely don't understand why he's getting so much wraps. I really don't." (in regard to commentators raving on about Zac Smith in his first year at Geelong, ie Gerard Healy)
ref: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/vent-offtopic.992906/page-81#post-44347050
Other times I am just hilariously and depressingly wrong:
"The only notable gain for 2018 is West Coast's first round selection." (in regard to our trades last year)
ref: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/vent-offtopic.992906/page-168#post-53143301
I love / hate this one from Ben Drever:
"Looking like The first Suns players to win a premiership.
Smith and Caddy.. Wearing the blue and white hoops " (well, it was partially right)
ref: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/vent-offtopic.992906/page-81#post-44348725
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GcSunsfan
Norm Smith Medallist
- Feb 17, 2013
- 5,644
- 8,186
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
He put together one of the best year anyone has ever seen last year.
now everyone expect him to replicate it in every game
He's still averaging
25 disposals
6 clearances
9 score involvements
5 inside 50
450 meters gained
And a goal a game
And that's still better then Cotchin, Selwood and Dangerfield this year so not bad for someone who dosnt look interested
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IMO Dangerfield was a better player last season. Think Martin got a lot of hype in games even when he was playing poorly.
It's not that people are expecting him to be as good as last year every game though anyway, but he is statistically worse on average in every measured category except disposal efficiency (66.4% this years vs 64.8% last), Bounces (up from 1.0 per game to 2.0 per game) and centre clearances (3.9 up from 3.4) which are pretty unconvincing improvements
Objectively poor season
GcSunsfan
Norm Smith Medallist
- Feb 17, 2013
- 5,644
- 8,186
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
CanYouFeelTheSunburn
Sinkin Corona's
- Jun 9, 2018
- 1,767
- 3,932
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
In my opinion comparing Martin and Dangerfield is like comparing apples with apples both extremely talented
Sunraysia
Club Legend
- Mar 16, 2015
- 1,476
- 1,763
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- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Gold Coast
I'm going for the apple on the winning team..
Geelong players had all the stats but the Tiger collective wins handsomely...
Peel67skin
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 21, 2017
- 8,387
- 3,941
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
- Other Teams
- Liverpool
- Banned
- #88
Butt Martin got more tattoo and better don't argue .
17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
West Coast are 10 wins and 2 losses (both losses against Sydney)
6 of their wins have been in Perth - 3 against Top 8 sides
3 wins in Melbourne came against the Blues, Bulldogs and Hawks - no Top 8 sides
1 wins against GWS at Shitless Stadium in front of 9K
The run home for them isn't a cakewalk
- next up is Essendon in Perth, which is a must-win for the Bombers
- 2 trips to Adelaide
- Collingwood at the MCG
- 2nd Western Derby
- other Perth opponents are GWS, WB, and the Demons
- Final game in Bris Vegas
In 2017, West Coast had a very poor run home and only made the top 8 because the Demons were too pea-hearted to claim their own spot in the finals. The Eagles could not win away from home and their finals form looked to be on the back of the retiring players.
Last year, Fremantle put together 6 wins by Round 9 after losing their first 2, then only managed 2 wins for the rest of the year. The year before that, North Melbourne started the season 10 and 1, just like this year's Eagles, then lost 9 out of 11 games and bowed out of the finals in their only game.
So, while the best case scenario for West Coast remains a Top 4 spot, their worst case scenario is a horror show.
20-2 - Nobody has finished this high since the Collingwood in 2011
19-3 - Only 8 teams have finished this high in the past 30 seasons
18-4 - Only 14 teams have finished this high in the past 30 seasons
17-5 - Top 4 finish
16-6 - Likely Top 4 finish
15-7 - Top 8 finish, home advantage
14-8 - Top 8 finish, home advantage
13-9 - Top 8 finish, away
12-10 - possible Top 8 finish, away
11-11 - 9th to 12th finish
10-12 - possible bottom 6
Even given this breakdown, it is still advantage Eagles as far as the draft pick swap is concerned. There is a slight chance they lose out, which takes the Draft Pick into Top 5 territory. All this analysis is moot though, because it is widely acknowledged that Draft picks 5 to 15 are pretty much at the same talent level. Our best hopes are to see the Eagles fall short of a 16 win finish and either exit Finals in the first or second week of finals or not make it at all. Literally a 50/50 proposition of us getting a Top 10 Draft pick, which aren't bad odds.
At this stage, Bailey Scott has put in 2 best on ground performances for the Allies in a win against Vic Country and 2 point loss against Vic Metro. Watch for the Melbourne Media to start inflating his draft stocks. This pick might end up being the one that needs to be used to move up and get him. If it isn't, then it represents the second 1st round pick before Scott is taken with a combination of later picks.
- Aug 7, 2013
- 7,938
- 17,011
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- Gold Coast
- Other Teams
- Rams, 76's, Brewers
Unfortunately they are a lot better than most of us thought. Barring injuries or a dramatic form slump then I see them winning at least 6 of those games and probably more.
Sunraysia
Club Legend
- Mar 16, 2015
- 1,476
- 1,763
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Gold Coast
Don't count me in 'most of us' - I warned not to underestimate them and thought our draft pick was likely #8 or worse.
Even so #16, 17,18 to me was a reach...but is now likely...
17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
My main point about form is that they have only beaten 3 Top 8 sides, yet they play 6 Top 8 calibre sides in the the run home as well as Freo in the Derby. If they win 6 or more games, they are a legitimate Flag contender. Without Darling for several of those games makes the task harder, but otherwise they have been pretty good with injuries and have blooded a lot of players. I'm predicting a slide down the ladder and hoping out of the 8 altogether, but I'll settle for a Draft pick #11 to #15 as a C minus trade but not a total disaster, remembering that it could have been pure genius had it paid off and the Weagles got the Spoon.
- Jun 14, 2014
- 1,526
- 1,858
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Notably, Richmond and Sydney have played 13 games so far compared to 12 for West Coast. Their next game against Essendon is a chance for them to regain #1 on the ladder (with one game clear of Richmond and Sydney with 11 Wins vs their 10 Wins).
My thoughts on a few upcoming games for West Coast, taking into account injuries, and home ground advantages:
Essendon: I only give the Bombers a chance if Kennedy and Barrass aren't inclusions (along with Darling) for West Coast, because 1) it's at Optus Stadium, and 2) the Bombers injury list looks a little nebulous with David Zaharakis, Darcy Parish, and Joe Daniher missing. They may be missing Patrick Ambrose, too. The Bombers might hulk out, but I am leaning toward them getting the crap beaten out of them, honestly. A win for West Coast will put them at 11 Wins, 13 games played, and #1 on the ladder with one game clear.
Adelaide: Luke Brown, Rory Laird, Tom Lynch, Paul Seedsman, and Rory Sloane are all scheduled to be back by the time West Coast play Adelaide. Adelaide will only be missing Brad Crouch, Mitch McGovern, and Brodie Smith in that game, assuming they don't suffer any more major injures. West Coast will presumably be missing Jack Darling, so this could be the resurgence of Adelaide - a potentially dangerous game for West Coast playing away (if they're not careful). However, Adelaide's confidence might be cooked for this season and they may be looking more toward reloading for next year.
Giants: Brett Deledio, Daniel Lloyd, Rory Lobb, Tom Scully, and Will Setterfield will all still injured by the time this game comes up. They could potentially still be missing Toby Greene, too. Darling could possibly be back in time for this game, too - meaning West Coast could potentially have all their Best 22 on the park against a still pretty depleted Giants line-up. It's also at Optus Stadium.
Collingwood: The injury list for Collingwood is pretty nasty, and they'll be unlikely to play James Aish, Tim Broomhead, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack, and Daniel Wells against West Coast. They could possibly be missing any of Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore, Travis Varcoe, and Ben Reid, too. It will be an interesting test to see how West Coast play at the MCG against a side vying for Top Four, though - but hopefully Collingwood's injury list isn't too bad by the time this game comes along.
17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Nice summary. Footy is a funny game and form is fleeting. WC could win all of these games or none. It could all be academic if we end up having to use that pick on Bailey Scott.
Aren’t u meant to be recording the podcast now??
17er
Cancelled
- Oct 21, 2017
- 2,500
- 1,829
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
It's in the can. SunnerSS is just tidying the audio and should have it up tonight.
You're probably aware, but some others might not be, but West Coasts win % at Adelaide oval is
a) the highest of any AFL side (85.71%)
b) the same as their win percentage at Optus (1 loss in 7 games).
So as a West Coast fan, although those two games are away i wouldn't rate either as in our hardest games to come for the rest of the season. (would rate Pies at MCG and Roos in Tassie #1 and #2 hardest). Of course long-term the win rate there has to come down, so maybe West Coast will go 1 & 1 in adelaide.
Also, unrelated, I note that 17er has stopped saying WCE have no depth and when player x or y go down they'll be found out
I dislike WCE fan posts on Suns forum. It sucks.
I’d love it if everyone could let go of past allegiances and buy in 100%.
We want our players to 100% buy in to the club.
Why shouldn’t the fans as well.
