Our Dysfunctional Forward Line

[StringyDog]

^^

I don't think anyone is against a tall forward taken early, if it is a quality tall forward like Shaw, but we shouldn't be reaching for one in place of a quality players like Stringer/Simpson for example.

I can't see Melbourne and Brisbane both passing on Shaw anyway given the lack of development from Watts and Cook and Brown coming to the end.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

^^

I don't think anyone is against a tall forward taken early, if it is a quality tall forward like Shaw, but we shouldn't be reaching for one in place of a quality players like Stringer/Simpson for example.

I can't see Melbourne and Brisbane both passing on Shaw anyway given the lack of development from Watts and Cook and Brown coming to the end.

This is assuming that Brisbane and Melbourne come lower than us!

Melbourne probably will... Will Brisbane?

 

[Igloo]

^^

I don't think anyone is against a tall forward taken early, if it is a quality tall forward like Shaw, but we shouldn't be reaching for one in place of a quality players like Stringer/Simpson for example.

I can't see Melbourne and Brisbane both passing on Shaw anyway given the lack of development from Watts and Cook and Brown coming to the end.

Yeah, if the obvious best available is there, definitely take them, but if not, I'd hope we would go for the tall.

Melbourne I could see passing on him. Viney will be one of their picks, and I think they'll take another good mid to go with him.
If Brisbane finish below us, I reckon they will probably go for the KPF, which will be Shaw.

@ gangsta deluxe, I think we'll finish above Brisbane.

 

[stefoid]

But wouldn't it be good to have that option long who can take a big pack mark, and have them develop with our core group? We are only in our 2nd year of a momentary drop down the ladder, so picking a tall forward now, developing him with the majority of the new brigade, while we continue to bring in others would be a good move I reckon.

We could possibly even get a good quick mid with our 3rd pick (2nd round) given our likely position in the draft.

Im firmly on the Shaw bandwagon

Also, I've heard that next years draft is pretty good too.

We allready have a heap of potential key forwards on the list, but what classy mids do we have coming through? We have all the slowish inside mids we need, but where are the up and coming line breakers?

Dal, Howard, Tutt, Pearce, Johanison. I think thats the sum total of our pups who can break the lines. This needs to be addressed as a priority.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Yeah, if the obvious best available is there, definitely take them, but if not, I'd hope we would go for the tall.

Melbourne I could see passing on him. Viney will be one of their picks, and I think they'll take another good mid to go with him.
If Brisbane finish below us, I reckon they will probably go for the KPF, which will be Shaw.

@ gangsta deluxe, I think we'll finish above Brisbane.

Not if we do the right thing.....

 

[Igloo]

We allready have a heap of potential key forwards on the list, but what classy mids do we have coming through? We have all the slowish inside mids we need, but where are the up and coming line breakers?

Dal, Howard, Tutt, Pearce, Johanison. I think thats the sum total of our pups who can break the lines. This needs to be addressed as a priority.

Yes, we have potential key forwards on the list. I think it's fair to say that the majority, if not all of them are projects in regard to the true FF position. Hill was a late pick, is a ruck/KPF, Redpath a rookie, Campbell a rookie, Cordy and Roughead haven't shown a lot there as of yet (granted, they could, but so far the more likely scenario is they are ruckmen who can go forward or back).
We don't have anyone apart from Jones who we have drafted solely as a KPF. If you look at the best KPF's in the game, where do they play the majority, if not all the time? You don't often see them play in the ruck, or go down back. They can do it, but it's obvious their best position is as a KPF.

If we drafted a player with the sole intention of developing them as a FF, I think it could only be beneficial.

If there is obvious best available talent there at our picks, you would definitely go for them, but if not, looking at a specific need that is harder to find would be a priority I think.

This is a quote from Knightmare in his phantom draft thread.

It would be the ideal. Just depends on whether there are clear best availables. I'd go outside in the 2nd round and go for value early. Allot of outside mids in that mid range area of the draft so plenty of options this year for clubs looking for some outside talent.

So according to him there are a lot of outside mids who could go in the 2nd/3rd rounds. They would be easier to manage/develop than a key forward, who you either take as highly rated, or as a bit of a smokey.

 

[stefoid]

Yes, we have potential key forwards on the list. I think it's fair to say that the majority, if not all of them are projects in regard to the true FF position. Hill was a late pick, is a ruck/KPF, Redpath a rookie, Campbell a rookie, Cordy and Roughead haven't shown a lot there as of yet (granted, they could, but so far the more likely scenario is they are ruckmen who can go forward or back).
We don't have anyone apart from Jones who we have drafted solely as a KPF. If you look at the best KPF's in the game, where do they play the majority, if not all the time? You don't often see them play in the ruck, or go down back. They can do it, but it's obvious their best position is as a KPF.

If we drafted a player with the sole intention of developing them as a FF, I think it could only be beneficial.

If there is obvious best available talent there at our picks, you would definitely go for them, but if not, looking at a specific need that is harder to find would be a priority I think.

This is a quote from Knightmare in his phantom draft thread.


So according to him there are a lot of outside mids who could go in the 2nd/3rd rounds. They would be easier to manage/develop than a key forward, who you either take as highly rated, or as a bit of a smokey.

We dont just need 'outside talent' we need genuine elite line breakers like Griff and Coons, and 1st round 2012 will be our chance to pick up a couple.

Of our total of 5 pups who have any sort of ability to run and kick, only Dal looks like a genuine star, and Johanison is an injured rookie who will be struggling to maintain his spot on the list.

Our 2nd round is most likely for Hunter anyway. 2 gun line breakers and Hunter will see our midfield set up for the next decade./

 

[Igloo]

We dont just need 'outside talent' we need genuine elite line breakers like Griff and Coons, and 1st round 2012 will be our chance to pick up a couple.

Of our total of 5 pups who have any sort of ability to run and kick, only Dal looks like a genuine star, and Johanison is an injured rookie who will be struggling to maintain his spot on the list.

Our 2nd round is most likely for Hunter anyway. 2 gun line breakers and Hunter will see our midfield set up for the next decade./

We also need a genuine target at FF, who has the main role of being that tall forward who can take a big pack mark, and kick a clutch goal.
We haven't had that for years, not even with Baz, who was a lead up forward. Having that option is a luxury for teams who have a player like that.

Key forwards take longer to develop as well. So if a highly rated KPF is there at our pick in the draft, wouldn't it be wiser to take him this year, and develop him at least a year ahead of if we ignore it this year? I think it's fair to say we will be having a few down years, so there is the chance to pick up genuine elite line-breakers in future drafts, probably next year. They can develop quickly (look how well the GWS and GC mids are doing already, still 18/19/20 years of age), while a KPF will take a few years. If we get on top of it now, they will be developed by the time we are challenging again, and if Jones comes on like we all hope, we would have 2 good key forwards.

 

[Testekill]

Not if we do the right thing.....

Purchasing a tank is hardly going to help us pick up early picks. Unless you propose attacking GWS with the tank in which case let's go for it.

 

[paulveed]

I like the idea of bringing in Panos.
With his positioning though, I wonder if he would be more effective as a high half forward, with his excellent kicking skills going inside forward 50, and still the ability to be in range of the goals, or have him a bit deeper as a genuine inside 50 target.

Seeing Hill has been injured I think I am with you Igloo on bringing in Matty P. However, pace is his biggest weakness from what I have seen, so I would start him out of the goal square personally. He has greatly improved his tank, but still needs that extra yard of pace. That said however, he is a lead up forward [and a smart/natural one ] rather than a pack mark type.
Continue resting the two rucks in the forward pocket for the long bomb, or crashing packs, Jones for the contests further out, and let Matt P. lead out into the gap in between.

Now as for needing more tall forwards out of the draft. I would say, only if a really exceptional one falls in our lap. Aside from the obvious tall youngsters we have already, one that is not often discussed because he normally is a half back is Fletcher Roberts. In last years u/18 final he moved forward well into the game, and all but won it off his own boot [ 4 or 5 goals from memory]. He is still a skinny kid, but given a couple of pre seasons and he could be a gun, and flexable.

And on that line of thought, perhaps we should pat the recruiting dept. on the back for once while we are at it, as we have finished up with the most influential player from the last two TAC G. finals on our list in Wal. and F.R.
Well done guys. Keep up the good work this upcoming draft too.

 

[cleveland]

Why didn't Fletcher Roberts get picked up in the national draft?

 

[stefoid]

We also need a genuine target at FF, who has the main role of being that tall forward who can take a big pack mark, and kick a clutch goal.
We haven't had that for years, not even with Baz, who was a lead up forward. Having that option is a luxury for teams who have a player like that.

Key forwards take longer to develop as well. So if a highly rated KPF is there at our pick in the draft, wouldn't it be wiser to take him this year, and develop him at least a year ahead of if we ignore it this year? I think it's fair to say we will be having a few down years, so there is the chance to pick up genuine elite line-breakers in future drafts, probably next year. They can develop quickly (look how well the GWS and GC mids are doing already, still 18/19/20 years of age), while a KPF will take a few years. If we get on top of it now, they will be developed by the time we are challenging again, and if Jones comes on like we all hope, we would have 2 good key forwards.

I think our current tall forward stocks are allready good enough and deep enough. They just need another 2 years to be the physically ready to take advantage of their talent.

and anyway, like someone said : Judd kicking to Setanta > Cross kicking to Cloke.

 

[Igloo]

I think our current tall forward stocks are allready good enough and deep enough. They just need another 2 years to be the physically ready to take advantage of their talent.

and anyway, like someone said : Judd kicking to Setanta > Cross kicking to Cloke.

Are they though? Hill hasn't been trialled at AFL level at all, neither have Campbell and Redpath.
If someone like Hill gets games (which i hope happens soon), and performs well, then maybe you could classify them as good enough, but right now I don't think we can. Only Jones has shown the slightest bit of promise as a tall forward in the senior side.
2 years is a long time to wait for guys to come on who you picked up VERY late in the draft, or even in the rookie draft.

Just on that last little example, what would you prefer -
10 seconds left in the grand final, down by 5 points. Would you prefer Judd kicking it to Setanta in a pack, or Cross kicking to Cloke in a big pack?

Your situation works for a lead up forward, but im talking about getting someone who can take a big pack mark. Pin point kicking skills aren't needed for that (not saying we don't need them, we definitely do).

I feel this debate wont be settled for a long time Im enjoying it though.

 

[stefoid]

Are they though? Hill hasn't been trialled at AFL level at all, neither have Campbell and Redpath.
If someone like Hill gets games (which i hope happens soon), and performs well, then maybe you could classify them as good enough, but right now I don't think we can. Only Jones has shown the slightest bit of promise as a tall forward in the senior side.
2 years is a long time to wait for guys to come on who you picked up VERY late in the draft, or even in the rookie draft.

Just on that last little example, what would you prefer -
10 seconds left in the grand final, down by 5 points. Would you prefer Judd kicking it to Setanta in a pack, or Cross kicking to Cloke in a big pack?

Your situation works for a lead up forward, but im talking about getting someone who can take a big pack mark. Pin point kicking skills aren't needed for that (not saying we don't need them, we definitely do).

I feel this debate wont be settled for a long time Im enjoying it though.

How many developing tall forwards and ruck/forwards do you want on the list at one time? We currently have 6. (not counting Grant or Panos as KPF)

How many developing mids/flankers who can run and kick do you want on the list? We currently have 5.

"Just on that last little example, what would you prefer -
10 seconds left in the grand final, down by 5 points. Would you prefer Judd kicking it to Setanta in a pack, or Cross kicking to Cloke in a big pack?"

Or more to the point, would you rather have Judd+Setanta or Cross+Cloke in your team?

Or as somebody else said, Cam Mooney and Nathan Ablett have premiership medals whilst Matthew Richardson and Matthew Pavlich dont. what does that tell you?

 

[stefoid]

Why didn't Fletcher Roberts get picked up in the national draft?

Seems to be mentioned in the willi bests consistantly - great signs for our future defence.

 

[Igloo]

How many developing tall forwards and ruck/forwards do you want on the list at one time? We currently have 6.

How many developing mids/flankers who can run and kick do you want on the list? We currently have 5.

We have 1 sole position KPF - Jones. Ruck/forwards aren't the answer, and aren't going to win you matches. A FF who can take a big grab and kick a goal is.

As I said, a highly rated KPF is harder to get than a mid/flanker. A lot harder. When one is available, and there isn't an obvious stand out talent there, you take it. There would be a much higher success rate of mids/flankers going from the 2nd round to the end of the draft than there would be of KPF's. The talent is more widespread for mids/flankers, and they are easier to develop and manipulate game style.

I wouldn't be comfortable in the fact of pinning our tall forward hopes on guys we picked up in the rookie draft, or at picks in the 80's.

 

[Sharkey66]

Tom Hill is A KPF who rucks a bit, not a ruckman, so we have 2 KPF, 3 if we count Redpath, who may or may not make it.
Hill has come on in leaps and bounds this year, and has done as much as Jones had, before he was picked for the senior side i think.
So unless there is an absolute no brainer, a kp in this draft is not what we need. More urgent would be a small crumbing forward to sit at the feet of Jones ,Hill and co. when they spill the mark. We have Dahl, but his forward time seems to be limited now as he seems to spend most of his time in the mid.

See what our boys have got first, and if none make it go hard at GWS and Gold coast for one of their boys in a year or two.

 

[nicko77]

No doubt identifying key position players is the hardest job, particularly when you don't have early first round draft picks. They can often take a long time to develop when they step up from U18 level to AFL level.

I have a bit of a philosphy when it comes to ruckman and Key position players in that you shouldn't spend first round draft picks on them (or even second round) unless they are obviously standout footballers and athletes (your Franklin, Riewoldt, Kreuzer types), who's bodies will be ready for AFL within 12 months. The record of developing tall key position players or ruckmen who have been in the system (VFL, WAFL, or SANFL) for a time is actually quite successful, lower risk and they can often be nabbed quite late in the draft.

The rookie list therefore I think is also a good avenue for this and although so far most of our successes with the rookie list have been smaller players, this is an avenue we could explore. Campbell is a perfect example of this, his development this season suggests he is going to play senior footy for us in the not too distant future.

 

[stefoid]

Im firmly in favor of addressing needs with good picks, I just reckon the greater need is in the midfield right now.

 

[dogwatch]

Just on that last little example, what would you prefer -
10 seconds left in the grand final, down by 5 points. Would you prefer Judd kicking it to Setanta in a pack, or Cross kicking to Cloke in a big pack.

Not a valid option. Judd wouldn't kick it to a pack. He would find a man or at least kick it to a 70% advantage.

 

[Igloo]

Not a valid option. Judd wouldn't kick it to a pack. He would find a man or at least kick it to a 70% advantage.

So if Judd was the one who took the kick that Leo Barry marked in 05, he would have somehow managed to find an option where there was an advantage, even though there was none?

I cant tell if you're being serious or not, but if you are... come on dogwatch

 

[dogwatch]

So if Judd was the one who took the kick that Leo Barry marked in 05, he would have somehow managed to find an option where there was an advantage, even though there was none?

I cant tell if you're being serious or not, but if you are... come on dogwatch

A bit tenuous there, igloo... a hypothetical on a hypothetical. I can't recall who kicked the ball that Barry marked and what options he had so no way I can answer that.

What I am saying is that with 10 secs to play and 5 points down I'd rather have Judd with the ball in his hands 70m out than say Cross, no matter who was up forward. Anyway the argument about elite midfielder vs elite pack marker is not resolved either way by this example. So, to that extent I'm not entirely serious.

However, as stated earlier, I am firmly in the "let's get elite midfielders first" camp, unless there's an outstanding option available as a KPF such as Mason Shaw (although at this stage I've only got your word that he is any good!)

 

[paulveed]

Why didn't Fletcher Roberts get picked up in the national draft?

There would have been a reason/s, but must it end there? If I recall correctly, neither did Morris, Boyd, Dal., Pods....Need I go on? Question is though....So What?

 

[Igloo]

A bit tenuous there, igloo... a hypothetical on a hypothetical. I can't recall who kicked the ball that Barry marked and what options he had so no way I can answer that.

What I am saying is that with 10 secs to play and 5 points down I'd rather have Judd with the ball in his hands 70m out than say Cross, no matter who was up forward. Anyway the argument about elite midfielder vs elite pack marker is not resolved either way by this example. So, to that extent I'm not entirely serious.

However, as stated earlier, I am firmly in the "let's get elite midfielders first" camp, unless there's an outstanding option available as a KPF such as Mason Shaw (although at this stage I've only got your word that he is any good!)

Fair enough, it is very tenuous, but I guess that's what you often get when dealing in hypotheticals .

Judd is obviously the far superior player, but in an extremely high pressure situation like that I don't think the difference would be huge.
But anyway, hypotheticals are hypotheticals.

I think we all agree on if there is the obvious stand out talent there, it would be crazy to not take them. Luckily we have 2 picks in a row though

 

[jeemak]

Clearly our forward line is suffering from poor delivery, and a lack of system when moving the ball from defense through the midfield. If these aspects of our game weren't an issue, our forward line would be considerably more functional.

With that in mind, Grant, Cordy, and Jones would be much more effective than they are now, all having played less than 50 games each.

Each of these players are talented. Grant or Cordy for mine are the most talented of the three, though having had their first years on the list ruined by injury and OP or shoulder reconstructions each of them is at least a year behind in development from where they should be. And their physical stature doesn't help a great deal.

Moving forward, I see Jones as the high repeat leading player that is capable of taking a contested mark between HF and the wing, while Grant and Cordy are the deeper players with the former being the leading target and the latter being the long one.

For this to happen, we need to be patient. Each of these players have sufficient talent, though each of them is less than 22 years old. Not many players can make an impact like a Jonathan Brown or a Chris Grant in their first few years. The game has changed, the forward line now demands more on a physical basis than it used to, and tall skinny KPF's need time.

To improve our goal kicking ability we need to sort out our midfield and defense beforehand. With the decline of Lake and Hargrave to injury, the loss of Harbrow to GC as well as the decline in form of Gilbee was it any surprise we struggled to move the ball fluidly from defense in 2011? With Austin filling in for Williams, Lake coming back in to form and a lack of Morris's cool head with the ball is it any wonder that we're not moving the ball out of defense to the midfield fluidly in 2012?

Of course it isn't, but that doesn't mean we need to supplement that poor ball movement from defense through the midfield by either offering a guy like Cloke $1m to play with us, or blindly think we need a gun KPF in the next draft.

What we need to do is line our ducks up from defense through the midfield, and supplement Cordy, Jones and Grant with some decent ball users.

At this point in time, we have Wood, Howard and Tutt ready to step in to defense. On top of that, we have Wallis, Smith, Liberatore and Dahlhaus complementing Sherman, DJ, Picken, Griffen and Cooney in the middle.

What we really need right now, is a genuine goal kicking small to medium sized forward to take the pressure off and replace Gia and Higgins, as well as a genuinely quick outside runner with good skills to tie the movement from defense through a beefed up midfield together.

The forward line taller players will be OK in a year or two if we persist with them. What we really need to do is get the skillful linking players in to our system as quickly as possible.

Unless an unbelievably good tall forward is available at the draft within the range of our first two picks, we need to go for a quick skillful mid and a quick skillful genuine mid sized forward.