Analysis Our weakpoints

[jackcass]

Our major weakness is our defence.

Yes Toovey Brown and Frost can all hold a forward honest, but we were ranked 18th in the competition from taking the ball out of the defensive 50 and scoring.. The majority of our defenders are very poor disposers of the ball so when teams take the ball forward it gets stuck in our defence until they eventually kick the goal.

We are really quite desperate for a Shaw or Scharenberg type down there, the AFL has gone past defenders who can ONLY defend... Hawthorn set the standard with guys like Gibson Burgoyne and Birchall

That same back 6 that was rated among the leagues best in the first half of 2015 despite the fact that most of the players haven't even achieved 50 games yet?

 

[Kappa]

That same back 6 that was rated among the leagues best in the first half of 2015 despite the fact that most of the players haven't even achieved 50 games yet?

And just who rated our defence better than Fremantles Hawthorns Sydney's ect ect? No one in reality.

I'm sure the 1 statistic you can pull out that's completely manipulated because of Collingwood's super easy draw early in 2015 relative to other teams will prove our defence is elite though...

 

[Nuffsaid]

There is a lot of discussion about the quality (or lack of) of ball use as a weakness and I agree to an extent. Particularly in the back half and 'in transition' as Buck has identified.
What hasn't been discussed much is the 'receiver' end of the equation, and I think that's a key factor for our list. Cloke is the only target that we can kick to with any real confidence and even he must drive the mids crazy some times with his inclination to drop the anchor and wrestle. This is evidenced by Blair having been a favoured target at times over the last couple of seasons.
I suspect this is partially the basis for the Howe recruitment as even White and Moore are almost more at home at ground level than in the air or on the lead, and none of our mids are great overhead either. There's a lot to be said for that guy who can make a 70% kick look good. The recruitment of tall mids will also hopefully address this weakness in time. I'd still like to see KPF as a focus in future recruiting.

 

[legendstatus]

Couldn't be bothered reading previous posts but, clearly it's our backline rebound and centre breaks.

That's it!


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[jackcass]

And just who rated our defence better than Fremantles Hawthorns Sydney's ect ect? No one in reality.

I'm sure the 1 statistic you can pull out that's completely manipulated because of Collingwood's super easy draw early in 2015 relative to other teams will prove our defence is elite though...

Where did I suggest it was better than Freo, Hawks or Sydney.... Yep, nowhere. Just making the observation that there was broad admiration for our defensive group, particularly early, which when you consider that the majority of the group haven't yet achieved a 50 game milestone, bodes well for 2016 and beyond. You can try to spin that whatever way you like to support your view or otherwise. I don't really care either way.

Just for the record, I completely disagree with your statement that our defense is a major weakness.

 

[Kappa]

Where did I suggest it was better than Freo, Hawks or Sydney.... Yep, nowhere. Just making the observation that there was broad admiration for our defensive group, particularly early, which when you consider that the majority of the group haven't yet achieved a 50 game milestone, bodes well for 2016 and beyond. You can try to spin that whatever way you like to support your view or otherwise. I don't really care either way.

Just for the record, I completely disagree with your statement that our defense is a major weakness.

Early on we played Brisbane Essendon Carlton and St Kilda as 4 of our first 5 games... all teams with shithouse forward lines (Riewoldt was missing for the saints), so it's no wonder we weren't conceding too many goals early.

 

[jackcass]

Early on we played Brisbane Essendon Carlton and St Kilda as 4 of our first 5 games... all teams with shithouse forward lines (Riewoldt was missing for the saints), so it's no wonder we weren't conceding too many goals early.

The draw is what it is. Defense also held up against the Hawks, Freo, Swans etc. If we'd done better in the midfield contests and/or taken our chances up forward we may even have won those and other similar games.

Conceded 100 points - 2010: 2; 2011: 2; 2012: 5; 2013: 6; 2014: 8; 2015: 5. Definitely heading in the right direction again.

And you mistake youth and inexperience for a weakness. At the start of 2015 (selected the 8 guys who played majority of the season - Langdon, Scharenberg, Frost, Marsh, Maynard, Brown, Toovey, & Williams) our defensive group had an average age of 21.6 and an average games played of 38, Tooves the only 1 >100 games to his name. Hawthorn (Hodge, Birchall, Duryea, Stratton, Suckling, Lake, Gibson, & Frawley) at the same time was 27.8 years and 148.4 games with 5 > 100 and 2 > 200.

Yes, our defense is a work in progress but hardly a weakness. Improve our midfield control and our ball use and they'll be under a hell of a lot less pressure which will also improve their performances.

 

[Good_Old]

Floppin' our dongs out.

 

[jmac70]

Floppin' our dongs out.

We somehow need to harness the flop and turn it into a match winning performance.

 

[ride56]

I like to think of our weakpoints as strongpoints not fully developed...

Agree. He's lost his nerve in front of goal IMO. Played really well back there and could help get us out of tight spots and set up play.

 

[Horaceg]

Couldn't be bothered reading previous posts but, clearly it's our backline rebound and centre breaks.

That's it!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Ben Reid should fix some of the rebound plays and delivery into the forward half.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Centre breaks was obvious

Scary to think what we could do if we were even in the Top 8 for Centre clearances. Because I'd LOVE to see the stat for Centre clearance to goal. I'd bet we'd Be top 3 to 5 for that.

We don't get many centre clearances, but when we do, we score more often than not.

 

[secretsource]

Still haven't recovered from losing the Anvil. Quentin Lynch, Jesse White, Corey Gault. None of them with that combination of enforcer mongrel that can kick a goal and relieve in the ruck.

 

[Hawkboy62]

I hate to over simplify but our main point of weakness is our rucks. Look at the good sides, you'll see a good to dominant ruckman. It's no coincidence that we've slipped back in all respects since Jolly was retired. The game starts in the middle, every few minutes it returns there and in between times there are stoppages manufactured by defensive structures that favour the big strong bodied rucks like Mumford, McEvoy or Goldstein. If you look at premiership sides over the years you'll find the ones that dominated had great BIG rucks. Charman and Keating, Ottens, Lee, Monkhurst, Madden, Jolly (at two clubs) Polly Farmer, Nicholls....it's a pre-curser to success. Get a dominant ruckman or pair of rucks and you can win a flag. The fact that North made a PF last year is all due to Goldstein....thats how far a dominant ruckman can take a side.
Since Jolly left we've wobbled along with our pair of baby rucks and they just get smashed at centre bounces. So much so that even great midfielders like Pendles, Swanny and Beams couldn't compete with other mids and had resort to "roving to the opposition rucks". Being the 18th side in centre clearances exemplifies our predicament.
A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

When one of (or hopefully all of ) Grundy, Witts, Cox become dominant centre bounce ruckmen then everything else will flow. Winning centre clearances puts oppositions on the back foot and makes defending a lot easier. It also gives our forwards the ability to lead into space because we have the initiative from a centre clearance.

Its our biggest weakness. If it gets solved this year we can look forward to a lot more success.
We NEED a DOMINANT RUCKMAN.

IMO as a Hawk fan I think that our ruck stocks have been serviceable rather than dominant in the recent era. In saying that I don't mean to denigrate Hale,Bailey or McEvoy who have been valuable contributors to our recent run of success. It's been a matter of working with what we had and adapting the on ball plan to win clearances. Our rucks are expected to compete in a predictable manner and also to contribute on the scoreboard.
Going in to the 2013 GF we were facing a dominant Sandilands and a midfield hyped to be the best since the 2001-2003 Lions. Our rucks were instructed to hit the ball in the same direction as Sandilands which made things predictable for our midfield. So despite conceding the hit-outs 55-27 we won the clearances 42-34.
In the 2015 GF we were facing a high leaping Natanui and a highly rated midfield. We were jumped over at the centre bounces; however our rucks held sway around the ground and McEvoy kicked an important early goal.
So, whilst having a dominant ruck man would be very nice it's not a necessity. I believe our coaching staff do a good job in researching our opponents and developing a plan for each. That's the challenge for the Pies staff.

 

[THATSGOLD]

Our kicking is shocking. Turn over kings. Hope Aish and Treloar can help that.

 

[cleomenes]

What we had in 2010 and don't have now are
1. The super confident attacking half backs (O'Brien and Shaw that attacked as soon as they got the ball, assuming they would beat their opponents.)
2. A super skillful half forward (Didak)
3. A mature confident and at times dominant ruck (Jolley) that enabled us to play an extra mobile big forward.
These lacks are weaknesses, but the players we have could well enable us to cover them all (but playing differently to use the strengths of the players we have.)

 

[the mighty T]

Translating play from our back half into goals is probably our greatest area of weakness followed closely by our inability to defend in transition.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

We somehow need to harness the flop and turn it into a match winning performance.

Maybe the biggest one, Cox is the answer to get better overall performance, and penetration.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Everyone has missed the single biggest weakness, it's just so obvious.

I've checked every loss last year, and the year before. Same thing. If I chech the previous seasons to last two years, I'm sure the pattern would continue.

In Every single I loss, we kick less points overall than the opposition team.

Fix that, the results should and I predict will follow.

Howe? That's the tricky part. Leave that to clever footy types.

 

[little_chris]

I hate to over simplify but our main point of weakness is our rucks. Look at the good sides, you'll see a good to dominant ruckman. It's no coincidence that we've slipped back in all respects since Jolly was retired. The game starts in the middle, every few minutes it returns there and in between times there are stoppages manufactured by defensive structures that favour the big strong bodied rucks like Mumford, McEvoy or Goldstein. If you look at premiership sides over the years you'll find the ones that dominated had great BIG rucks. Charman and Keating, Ottens, Lee, Monkhurst, Madden, Jolly (at two clubs) Polly Farmer, Nicholls....it's a pre-curser to success. Get a dominant ruckman or pair of rucks and you can win a flag. The fact that North made a PF last year is all due to Goldstein....thats how far a dominant ruckman can take a side.
Since Jolly left we've wobbled along with our pair of baby rucks and they just get smashed at centre bounces. So much so that even great midfielders like Pendles, Swanny and Beams couldn't compete with other mids and had resort to "roving to the opposition rucks". Being the 18th side in centre clearances exemplifies our predicament.
A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

When one of (or hopefully all of ) Grundy, Witts, Cox become dominant centre bounce ruckmen then everything else will flow. Winning centre clearances puts oppositions on the back foot and makes defending a lot easier. It also gives our forwards the ability to lead into space because we have the initiative from a centre clearance.

Its our biggest weakness. If it gets solved this year we can look forward to a lot more success.
We NEED a DOMINANT RUCKMAN.

100% agree with you. We need a SOLID dominant Ruckman. All the things Jolly did in 2010-2011.

I suggest, if Witts and Grundy don't contend the competition in both ruck clearances this year, then we look to the draft a mature age proven Ruckman with maybe 2-3 years left to play for 2017. We cannot afford to compete 2017 without a solid ruckman.

The problem is there is not many. If you look at ruckman that average 30 or more disposals a game here's the list. Possibly Jacobs or Gawn.

1 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne 44.08
2 Aaron Sandilands Fremantle 43.39
3 Shane Mumford GWS 38.45
4 Sam Jacobs Adelaide 37.35
5 Max Gawn Melbourne 37.31
6 Nicholas Naitanui West Coast 34.00
7 Stefan Martin Brisbane 32.50
8 Matthew Lobbe Port Adelaide 130.41
9 Mark Jamar Melbourne 30.00
10 Billy Longer St Kilda 29.17

 

[jackcass]

100% agree with you. We need a SOLID dominant Ruckman. All the things Jolly did in 2010-2011.

I suggest, if Witts and Grundy don't contend the competition in both ruck clearances this year, then we look to the draft a mature age proven Ruckman with maybe 2-3 years left to play for 2017. We cannot afford to compete 2017 without a solid ruckman.

The problem is there is not many. If you look at ruckman that average 30 or more disposals a game here's the list. Possibly Jacobs or Gawn.

1 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne 44.08 - 27 years; 149 games
2 Aaron Sandilands Fremantle 43.39 - 33; 239
3 Shane Mumford GWS 38.45 - 29; 128
4 Sam Jacobs Adelaide 37.35 - 27; 127
5 Max Gawn Melbourne 37.31 - 24; 39
6 Nicholas Naitanui West Coast 34.00 - 25; 131
7 Stefan Martin Brisbane 32.50 - 29; 94
8 Matthew Lobbe Port Adelaide 130.41 - 26; 84
9 Mark Jamar Melbourne 30.00 - 32; 155 (retired)
10 Billy Longer St Kilda 29.17 - 22; 43

Grundy 24.3 - 21; 41
Witts 22.3 - 23; 38

Added respective ages and games played just to give some context. Only Gawn and Longer are in a similar bracket to Witts and Grundy. Perhaps comparisons at the same age would be more insightful.

Should also note that a lot of other established senior rucks didn't make that list either so maybe hit-outs isn't the be-all-end-all of stats in this instance. Jolly after all only averaged 21 across his career. Len Thompson 15.4, Peter Moore 12.7, and Monky 12.7.

 

[little_chris]

Added respective ages and games played just to give some context. Only Gawn and Longer are in a similar bracket to Witts and Grundy. Perhaps comparisons at the same age would be more insightful.

Should also note that a lot of other established senior rucks didn't make that list either so maybe hit-outs isn't the be-all-end-all of stats in this instance. Jolly after all only averaged 21 across his career. Len Thompson 15.4, Peter Moore 12.7, and Monky 12.7.

I think our premiership window is open. More to the fact, I think we are 1 year off from seriously contending a premiership. Another year into Taylor Adams, De Goey, Darcey Moore, Treloar, Elliot, Marsh, Scharenberg returns etc..

For us to contend, we need dominance in the ruck. First use of the ball, a ruck who can drift forward, strong overhead mark and kick goals. A good ruck combination. Jolly and Leigh Brown.

Now to my question, do you think Witts and/or Grundy are able to fulfill their roles to help us contend next year?

 

[Hardas]

What we had in 2010 and don't have now are
1. The super confident attacking half backs (O'Brien and Shaw that attacked as soon as they got the ball, assuming they would beat their opponents.)
2. A super skillful half forward (Didak)
3. A mature confident and at times dominant ruck (Jolley) that enabled us to play an extra mobile big forward.
These lacks are weaknesses, but the players we have could well enable us to cover them all (but playing differently to use the strengths of the players we have.)

It would definitely help a lot if Grundy/Witts are able to provide an occasional, reliable marking outlet from the back half.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Witts and Grundy are more than capable of helping us advance next year. Failing that Grundy and Moore.

Failing the failing that, White is a good fourth choice.

 

[HappyRed]

I thought the Hudson Project was a good one. Perhaps that's an idea for 2017?
Just to educate and take some load off the young lings?