Discussion Paddy v Petracca

[L_W_P]

Let's say we take Petracca #1 and the rest of the draft stays the same.

What's a decent form guide for him with us? 1 goal a game as a mid size forward ala Acres?

In 2015 we win 3 more games with these goals and jump above Melbourne on the ladder. We now have pick pick 6 instead of 5. This goes to the Bombers for the Carlisle/Gresham deal but do we still take Gresham? With Acres and Petracca as forward/mids maybe we look at a more inside option like "The next Sam Mitchell" Kieran Lovell.

2016 we win 1 extra game with Petracca's goal. This puts us into the 8 for finals. Our first round pick is sent to the Hawks for the OMeara deal.

2017 we win 1 more game, jumping from 11th to 9th and missing finals on % alone. In the draft we get Hunter Clark with the Hawks pick then Lochie O'Brien at the new pick. Possible that we take Darcy Fogarty or reach for Jarrod Brander if we haven't found a key forward elsewhere.

Every chance that Richo gets an even more substantial extension at this point, possibly one that can't be cut short or paid out early which could mean we miss Ratten and Roughead.

This also means we don't go as hard for Hill which means no Ryder.

2018 we win 1 more game and jump above the Lions. The Lions pick was traded to Port so every chance the top of the draft still goes Walsh, Lukosious, Rankine and Rozee. Max King slides to our pick, if not then we get Rozee or Ben King.

2019 we win 1 more game but we start the season 5-0. Still likely we fall away and Richo gets sacked but at this point it's impossible to tell. As mentioned above he could well have got a significant financial upgrade after taking us to the finals meaning we hold onto him for another year or two.

--------------------

Had we picked Petracca the flow on seems inconsequential to our success of the last 5 years. He would have to be impacting games with multiple goals/assists which, under Richo, is impossible to predict.

We also know that the club was desperate for a top talent KPF to build around post Riewoldt. Bruce was still a defender and Membrey was yet to play a game. Could be that we get desperate one year to grab someone.

Maybe we give up picks 8 + 46 in 2017 (the Coffield and Paton picks) to the Lions for Josh Schache + Pick 18. We then draft Sandy Dragon Will Walker at 18 and our draft that year looks like shit.

Maybe we offer up a 2016 first rounder to the Blues for Lachie Henderson? Now we don't have a pick for the Hawks to flip for OMeara. Now we miss out on Clark, Long and Battle because we wanted Henderson at CHF to help us after immediately making finals.

Maybe we see Petracca moving into the midfield long term so decide that Jack Steele is surplus to needs.

It's impossible to tell.

TL;DR - I'd love Petracca in our team right now but the Butterfly Effect of drafting him initially is impossible to map out, even with hindsight.

 

[Mowman]

They had pick 2 but traded it (and 20) for Don Tyson and pick 9. I’m pretty sure Roos has said that if they’d kept pick two they would have taken Billings instead of Kelly.

Yep and Trader it to GWS who then picked Kelly

 

[Mowman]

Just reading that draft Zac Jones pick 15

 

[Crusty Undies]

Spot-on.

I used to play a lot of poker and there was a term for the sort of behavior where you agonize over hands you folded when you see what cards are in the table: rabbit hunting.

Once you’ve made an informed decision to do something, you have to forget about it and move on. You can’t act like you knew how the future would turn out at the time you made the decision.

It’s pointless hand-wringing after the event and can often be destructive as it ends up impacting negatively on future decisions.

And, above all else, raking over mistakes can torture a person mentally. It pretty much always leads to unhappiness. It is common though unfortunately, as you see from people on this forum constantly bringing up this particular mistake.

My problem is that most of us knew how it was going to work out before it even happened. It's whatever now but still stings seeing a player that by rights should be playing for us now tear us a new one.

 

[Crusty Undies]

Let's say we take Petracca #1 and the rest of the draft stays the same.

What's a decent form guide for him with us? 1 goal a game as a mid size forward ala Acres?

In 2015 we win 3 more games with these goals and jump above Melbourne on the ladder. We now have pick pick 6 instead of 5. This goes to the Bombers for the Carlisle/Gresham deal but do we still take Gresham? With Acres and Petracca as forward/mids maybe we look at a more inside option like "The next Sam Mitchell" Kieran Lovell.

2016 we win 1 extra game with Petracca's goal. This puts us into the 8 for finals. Our first round pick is sent to the Hawks for the OMeara deal.

2017 we win 1 more game, jumping from 11th to 9th and missing finals on % alone. In the draft we get Hunter Clark with the Hawks pick then Lochie O'Brien at the new pick. Possible that we take Darcy Fogarty or reach for Jarrod Brander if we haven't found a key forward elsewhere.

Every chance that Richo gets an even more substantial extension at this point, possibly one that can't be cut short or paid out early which could mean we miss Ratten and Roughead.

2018 we win 1 more game and jump above the Lions. The Lions pick was traded to Port so every chance the top of the draft still goes Walsh, Lukosious, Rankine and Rozee. Max King slides to our pick, if not then we get Rozee or Ben King.

2019 we win 1 more game but we start the season 5-0. Still likely we fall away and Richo gets sacked but at this point it's impossible to tell. As mentioned above he could well have got a significant financial upgrade after taking us to the finals meaning we hold onto him for another year or two.

--------------------

Had we picked Petracca the flow on seems inconsequential to our success of the last 5 years. He would have to be impacting games with multiple goals/assists which, under Richo, is impossible to predict.

We also know that the club were desperate for a top talent KPF to build around post Riewoldt. Bruce was still a defender and Membrey was yet to play a game. Could be that we get desperate one year to grab someone.

Maybe we give up picks 8 + 46 in 2017 (the Coffield and Paton picks) to the Lions for Josh Schache + Pick 18. We then draft Sandy Dragon Will Walker at 18 and our draft that year looks like sh*t.

Maybe we offer up a 2016 first rounder to the Blues for Lachie Henderson? Now we don't have a pick for the Hawks to flip for OMeara. Now we miss out on Clark, Long and Battle because we wanted Henderson at CHF to help us after immediately making finals.

Maybe we see Petracca moving into the midfield long term so decide that Jack Steele is surplus to needs.

It's impossible to tell.

TL;DR - I'd love Petracca in our team right now but the Butterfly Effect of drafting him initially is impossible to map out, even with hindsight.

Well for starters he wouldn't have played at all 2015 since he had a season ending injury before the season started.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Not really sure why you guys put yourselves through all the pain of reassessing a draft pick we cannot change

Its like saying ..... if only I put the house on number 7 instead of number 4 then I could have bought 6 houses.

Seriously do yourselves a huge favour and ........ move on!!

 

[Dr Spaceman]

I’m sure we’ll eventually get over it

 

[Parkysp]

I’m nearly certain the biggest fool ever, pelchen is the main reason we took him. Matter of fact I am certain. He has more to answer than maybe anyone else we have ever had at the club.

Archie Fraser is the winner in that race every time. Let no one ever be in doubt on that front.

I know Matt Finnis was playing devils advocate a bit in that article but there is a distinct tone of incredulity in his questions too I feel.

 

[Roddy Grant]

If we picked up Patrick Dangerfield instead of Ben McEvoy in the 2007 AFL draft we would have went back to back in 2009 and 2010 and now have at least 3 premiership cups to our name.

This would have made us a more attractive proposition to other players around the 2011, 2012 seasons, Ross Lyon wouldn’t have left the way he did, no Watters and no 2012 drop off the AFL cliff.

We would have been competitive in 2014, not finishing in the bottom 6 meaning we never would have picked up Paddy or Petracca anyway.

Who made the McEvoy decision? They are the real culprit here and the knock on effects are HUGE. McCartin would not have been drafted to Richo Saints as this would
never have existed. He then is not subjected to the sub standard coaching of Richo and Chums, where he was clearly incorrectly trained to try to take contested marks with his head and he would be injury free with at least one Coleman medal to his name.

“Elshaug first arrived at St Kilda as an assistant coach under Ross Lyon in 2007, before moving into recruitment in 2011 and finally into the position as its list manager in 2014.” COINCIDENCE???

Seriously though, this conversation, still.....you guys are a bunch of masochists.

 

[Veer Right]

All i know is these guys are paid professionals. They are on big money and it's their job to get it right. Now seeing as nearly every other club had Petracca on top makes me ill. At the end of the day Richo would of had the call, so i say good fn riddance.

 

[Veer Right]

If we picked up Patrick Dangerfield instead of Ben McEvoy in the 2007 AFL draft we would have went back to back in 2009 and 2010 and now have at least 3 premiership cups to our name.

This would have made us a more attractive proposition to other players around the 2011, 2012 seasons, Ross Lyon wouldn’t have left the way he did, no Watters and no 2012 drop off the AFL cliff.

We would have been competitive in 2014, not finishing in the bottom 6 meaning we never would have picked up Paddy or Petracca anyway.

Who made the McEvoy decision?

“Elshaug first arrived at St Kilda as an assistant coach under Ross Lyon in 2007, before moving into recruitment in 2011 and finally into the position as its list manager in 2014.” COINCIDENCE???

Seriously though, this conversation, still.....you guys are a bunch of masochists.

Ross the boss was fully in charge of trade time and another prick who set our list back years with his ineptness.

 

[Veer Right]

While i am at it, what about the Hannebery trade. Other clubs scoffed at us taking him for five years on big money but no St Kilda knows best. Bunch of asshats in charge.

I am confident with the current setup however that they can finally do something solid come trade period.

 

[Roddy Grant]

While i am at it, what about the Hannebery trade. Other clubs scoffed at us taking him for five years on big money but no St Kilda knows best. Bunch of asshats in charge.

I am confident with the current setup however that they can finally do something solid come trade period.

Hey, Lethlean and Hannebery senior will have smoked a few top of the range Cuban cigars and drank some very old single malt Scotch whiskies with that money.

I guess the damage of that is mitigated by us having so much cap space and nobody else wanting to come to us at the time .

Just hoping the contract is front loaded so we can give the likes of Steele the big increase he deserves.

Now back on topic, McCartin vs Petracca.

Nah **** it I’ll go hammer nails into myself instead.

 

[True Blue Saint]

Look, fact is, at draft day/night, you win some and you lose some.

The thing that stings most is that it's not just any draft pick, it's not just a first round pick, it's THE first pick that we messed up.

You should always take the best available with your first pick, and this philosophy rings true in other sports such as NBA and NFL as well.

I believe that we have a right to be upset, given that it was a clear mistake. Yes, Paddy has had a horrendous run with concussion issues, but I don't think he was ever on track to become a star in any case. He hadn't even had a break out game. His style of player just doesn't translate to the modern game

 

[JG22]

One of the saddest stories in football. Really really hurts.

I don't blame Paddy, he didn't ask to be picked there, the club does that. Don't blame the kid.

I just think in this climate where it is so unbelievably hard to achieve the ultimate success as a club that everyone is looking for the most minor of competitive advantages making mistakes of this gigantic proportion goes pretty far in making it impossible.

 

[Ricmel]

, and ensure they’re not just driven by hindsight.

Whilst criticism of this type of issue is often critically reliant on hindsight, this particular selection is not. If you go back to the threads pre-McCartin draft, I would estimate at least 50% of Saints supporters (myself included) wanted Petracca. Petracca was seen as an iron clad guarantee of a good player.

 

[Ricmel]

If we picked up Patrick Dangerfield instead of Ben McEvoy in the 2007 AFL draft we would have went back to back in 2009 and 2010 and now have at least 3 premiership cups to our name.

St Kilda have made 2 critical recruiting/draft decisions in their history that have absolutely cost us premierships.

1. Ian Stewart to Richmond for Billy Barrot in 1971. Saints lose GF by 7 points and Stewart wins 71 Brownlow, Barrot plays 3 or 4 games. Still probably hands down the stupidest trade made in the history of football, maybe all sport. Cost us at least 71.

2. More obvious in hindsight but taking Ball in front of Judd I reckon cost us 2 flags. Judd did his shoulders as a 17 year old so there was a question mark. Judd played in my local area and the word amongst people who knew in the area was he was the best talent ever seen at juniors. Ball was cruelled by injuries but even at his best he was a rung or two below Judd. Cost us 2 flags I reckon 2004/2005 maybe 2009.

I don't see Petracca at that level but gee he would be handy now.

 

[CaptainRisky]

Its pretty obvious why we are no good , we need to leave all the recruiting to the big footy team ,

 

[plugger66]

All i know is these guys are paid professionals. They are on big money and it's their job to get it right. Now seeing as nearly every other club had Petracca on top makes me ill. At the end of the day Richo would of had the call, so i say good fn riddance.

He didn’t. Pelchen was in charge of all that. BJ, dal, getting 2 players for one. Etc.

pelchen was let go never to get another job. Richo stayed on and when he did leave was employed straight away. The industry hear all the good and bad. Look at Watters. Ended up coaching under 13’s at Brighton vampires.

 

[plugger66]

Ross the boss was fully in charge of trade time and another prick who set our list back years with his ineptness.

If you going to knock the ex coaches then get the roles right. RL may have had a huge say in trading but this is drafting. He left every bit of that to the experts. As if he picked the drafted players. He probably saw them play 2 or 3 times. It’s Lyons fault it’s richo fault. Everyone but the people who did the picking because it sounds better to have a go at the bigger names. I only wish we could be set back like the Lyon era. I’d take 2 grand finals and that excitement any year since.

 

[Veer Right]

If you going to knock the ex coaches then get the roles right. RL may have had a huge say in trading but this is drafting. He left every bit of that to the experts. As if he picked the drafted players. He probably saw them play 2 or 3 times. It’s Lyons fault it’s richo fault. Everyone but the people who did the picking because it sounds better to have a go at the bigger names. I only wish we could be set back like the Lyon era. I’d take 2 grand finals and that excitement any year since.

I do not agree with you on this at all.

To further elaborate, what you are saying is Plugger66s opinion vs what i know happened. The final call is on the coach.

 

[plugger66]

I do not agree with you on this at all.

That’s ok. I will just look at who was and wasn’t employed after they left or were sacked. And I’m guessing at the time you thought this is the most exciting time as a supporter since you followed the saints unless of course you are about 70 years of age. If you are you have had the luck of seeing a flag. If only that happens again one day.

 

[gringo2011]

Archie Fraser is the winner in that race every time. Let no one ever be in doubt on that front.

I know Matt Finnis was playing devils advocate a bit in that article but there is a distinct tone of incredulity in his questions too I feel.

I don't think Pelican was still employed when we got Paddy. Even Richo said that Paddy had better be a gun after walking past Tracca. I think that was a Trout special. I know people love Long but Shai Bolton had just played an all star game where he looked like JJ mixed with Cyril. Goes after an obscure VFL player who plays back as a forward instead. Trout doing Trout things.

 

[plugger66]

Anyway all this thread does is make you sad. Haven’t we had enough in our time as saints supporters.

 

[gringo2011]

If we picked up Patrick Dangerfield instead of Ben McEvoy in the 2007 AFL draft we would have went back to back in 2009 and 2010 and now have at least 3 premiership cups to our name.

This would have made us a more attractive proposition to other players around the 2011, 2012 seasons, Ross Lyon wouldn’t have left the way he did, no Watters and no 2012 drop off the AFL cliff.

We would have been competitive in 2014, not finishing in the bottom 6 meaning we never would have picked up Paddy or Petracca anyway.

Who made the McEvoy decision? They are the real culprit here and the knock on effects are HUGE. McCartin would not have been drafted to Richo Saints as this would
never have existed. He then is not subjected to the sub standard coaching of Richo and Chums, where he was clearly incorrectly trained to try to take contested marks with his head and he would be injury free with at least one Coleman medal to his name.

“Elshaug first arrived at St Kilda as an assistant coach under Ross Lyon in 2007, before moving into recruitment in 2011 and finally into the position as its list manager in 2014.” COINCIDENCE???

Seriously though, this conversation, still.....you guys are a bunch of masochists.

The difference was that we had pick one and the choice of any player in the draft. We overlooked the obvious pick to take a risk and it ****ed up. It's like if you stop at the casino with your pay check. You want to have a shit load of money to show for it or you might not want to show your face at home. If you'd even lost $100 bucks it would be not so bad. Blowing Paddy, Hugh and Mc Kenzie with two first round picks and the first pick in the second round was outstanding shitness. Lonie over Caleb Daniel who was the one everyone thought we'd take was just incredible.