Prediction PAFC Punters' Thread

[Sleezy]

Ugh, what a shocking week. Unlike last week, 3 out of 4 50/50 games went against me. And melbourne. Bloody hell.

Model predicted 3/9.
118 invested for 51 returned.
Profit -59%

Lessons learnned:
Will need to incorporate gamestyle and home ground advantage into the model somehow. Will require some thinking.

Not going to knee jerk into chasing value at the expense of accuracy just yet. If i had been chasing value these past two weeks i'd be in the same spot as i am now as my win this week would have been balanced by a big loss in week 1.

Dealing with loss. I lost 60% this week. That's bad. Some tweaks to the method required in the future however that's gambling amd i started small so i could learn and limit losses. I committed my money for the season and so far have gotten value out of enjoyment of the excercise alone. Win win. I think i'll refer back to this for some perspective later in the season.

Been a while since i posted an update. Who wants to remember round 2? Not me.

First, the numbers:
Rnd 3:
9/9 for 51% profit

Rnd 4:
5/9 for -35% profit

Rnd 5:
6/9 for 3% profit

Rnd 6:
7/9 for 28% profit

Rnd 7:
8/9 for 38% profit

After that terrible round 2, i am back to square (almost - overall RoI is -0.1%).

So far i have blatantly ignored the model for two games and my gut has been right twice (melb/richmond and geelong/west coast - it's really hard to account for mental fragility and homesickness using statistics)

I have also subtly adjusted 'judgement factors' in my model to suit my intuition 4 times from memory:
-Hawks/WCE (loss - had hawks at 53% initially)
-GCS/Bris (loss - had brisbane at 52% initially)
-Stk/Melb (loss - had saints at 51% initially)
-Melb/Coll (loss - had coll at 63% no change no matter what ratings i adjusted. Learned to ignore model occaisionally from this case and have since adjusted some methodology to account for collingwoods stacked defence which was skewing results)

The lesson has been believe the model for the close ones unless i have a strong feeling (richmond are terrible, wce always forget to pack their appetite for the contest).

Having watched quite a few games, i've also managed to fill the gaps in my kbowledge of other teams somewhat. The model is now fairly well balanced and is giving more accurate results most of the time.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Been a while since i posted an update. Who wants to remember round 2? Not me.

First, the numbers:
Rnd 3:
9/9 for 51% profit

Rnd 4:
5/9 for -35% profit

Rnd 5:
6/9 for 3% profit

Rnd 6:
7/9 for 28% profit

Rnd 7:
8/9 for 38% profit

After that terrible round 2, i am back to square (almost - overall RoI is -0.1%).

So far i have blatantly ignored the model for two games and my gut has been right twice (melb/richmond and geelong/west coast - it's really hard to account for mental fragility and homesickness using statistics)

I have also subtly adjusted 'judgement factors' in my model to suit my intuition 4 times from memory:
-Hawks/WCE (loss - had hawks at 53% initially)
-GCS/Bris (loss - had brisbane at 52% initially)
-Stk/Melb (loss - had saints at 51% initially)
-Melb/Coll (loss - had coll at 63% no change no matter what ratings i adjusted. Learned to ignore model occaisionally from this case and have since adjusted some methodology to account for collingwoods stacked defence which was skewing results)

The lesson has been believe the model for the close ones unless i have a strong feeling (richmond are terrible, wce always forget to pack their appetite for the contest).

Having watched quite a few games, i've also managed to fill the gaps in my kbowledge of other teams somewhat. The model is now fairly well balanced and is giving more accurate results most of the time.

Do you have odds and your %'s recorded. Would be interesting to run Kelly criterion side by side the level stake method.

 

[Sleezy]

I do. There's a bug in my code at the moment that i haven't gotten round to fixing that means i haven't been tracking kelly v flat betting throughout the season.

When i get a chance i'll fix it and provide an update.

One other positive: my tipping has inproved by about .5 tips per round from the last couple of years. Top 10 in my work comp (out of 500) and climbing steadily since round 2.

 

[TheFVK]

Sleezy many people who run betting systems run multiple correlations with varying weight factors for varying input parameters in parallel, this way they can compare how different correlations are performing and pick up trends; the Squiggle on the Main Board is an example. Are you doing this?

 

[JayPea14]

Just enter all you info into this:

 

[crafty_bernardo]

Mark Lecras leading disposals @15$ in Group B (Crownbet) against: Harltlett, Wellingham, POlec, Broadbent, Ebert, Yeo, Sheppard.

Had 28 last year.

 

[Chokito]

Anyone have money on that SportsBet megabet of $18 for JK to kick 5 goals in the first half? Spewing I decided not to!

 

[tribey]

Anyone get on the Maggies at 3.20 and 18.00 (40+) today?

I got a couple of mates into it but didn't double up here. Bit of a miss.

You just can't have that many AFL players on every line, at home, and frame a market as if we'll be playing with eleven top-ups from the Tabernacle Choir.

 

[Hartletts Heroes]

Can't believe the crows are $2.70 ftw vs the weagles... could make some easy $$$ on this game

 

[Sleezy]

Sleezy many people who run betting systems run multiple correlations with varying weight factors for varying input parameters in parallel, this way they can compare how different correlations are performing and pick up trends; the Squiggle on the Main Board is an example. Are you doing this?

No, not that sophisticated at this stage. Thanks for the tip though - always interesting to read up on what others are doing. Always a chance that i can copy them

 

[Sleezy]

Been a while since i posted an update. Who wants to remember round 2? Not me.

First, the numbers:
Rnd 3:
9/9 for 51% profit
Rnd 4:
5/9 for -35% profit

Rnd 5:
6/9 for 3% profit

Rnd 6:
7/9 for 28% profit

Rnd 7:
8/9 for 38% profit

After that terrible round 2, i am back to square (almost - overall RoI is -0.1%).

So far i have blatantly ignored the model for two games and my gut has been right twice (melb/richmond and geelong/west coast - it's really hard to account for mental fragility and homesickness using statistics)

I have also subtly adjusted 'judgement factors' in my model to suit my intuition 4 times from memory:
-Hawks/WCE (loss - had hawks at 53% initially)
-GCS/Bris (loss - had brisbane at 52% initially)
-Stk/Melb (loss - had saints at 51% initially)
-Melb/Coll (loss - had coll at 63% no change no matter what ratings i adjusted. Learned to ignore model occaisionally from this case and have since adjusted some methodology to account for collingwoods stacked defence which was skewing results)

The lesson has been believe the model for the close ones unless i have a strong feeling (richmond are terrible, wce always forget to pack their appetite for the contest).

Having watched quite a few games, i've also managed to fill the gaps in my kbowledge of other teams somewhat. The model is now fairly well balanced and is giving more accurate results most of the time.

Time for another update. Two solid rounds where some small margins going just the wrong way cost me a nice profit, followed by an excellent couole of rounds have brought me back in the black for the first time since round one. Man, if the cats' poor kicking had cost me 9 two weeks in a row i would have been spitting chips.

Rnd 8:
6/9 for -17% profit

Rnd 9:
6/9 for -14% profit

Rnd 10:
8/9 for 16% profit

Rnd 11:
9/9 for 41% profit

Overall:
At the halfway mark, $798.8 bet for a return of $812.2 for an RoI of 1.7%.

Model accuracy so far (predicted win%):
50-60: 23/35 @ 66%
60-70: 20/29 @ 69%
70-80: 20/23 @ 87%
80-90: 10/10 @ 100%
90-100: 1/1 @ 100%

 

[cmpower]

Hawks -71.5@$5, pays for itself

 

[Rising Power]

Just noticed Freo are $2.90 (and +25 line) v Collingwood at the MCG in Round 14. I know they've only beaten Essendon and Brisbane so far but Collingwood have some serious wobbles. Only risk is Collingwood will be coming off a bye so may be fresh and 're-set'. Still....reasonable value there, particularly with the line.

 

[Alyx]

I have noticed some betting discussion in other threads recently, so I thought it was time to revive this one.

Sportsbet are offering a special Megabet for Robert Murphy's 300th game tomorrow. They are paying $7.00 for him to score two or more goals. In his past three games as a forward, he has kicked 1.0, 2.1, and 1.1. Against Brisbane, you would expect him to be in with a chance.

Also, Bet365 are paying $4.25 for Robbie Gray to score three or more goals tonight. That is compared to Ladbrokes' $2.75 and Sportsbet's $1.80.

 

[Lou Zyffer]

I have noticed some betting discussion in other threads recently, so I thought it was time to revive this one.

Sportsbet are offering a special Megabet for Robert Murphy's 300th game tomorrow. They are paying $7.00 for him to score two or more goals. In his past three games as a forward, he has kicked 1.0, 2.1, and 1.1. Against Brisbane, you would expect him to be in with a chance.

Also, Bet365 are paying $4.25 for Robbie Gray to score three or more goals tonight. That is compared to Ladbrokes' $2.75 and Sportsbet's $1.80.

I was with Bet365. Had $10 in the account but as I had other more healthy accounts, used them.
Bet365 took my money 'cos my account was inactive for 12 months. So **** 'em.

I've had a small wager with Ladbrokes for Port to win first quarter into win the match by 44+ @$2.20 cos I thought that was decent odds.

 

[LFC2010]

Noticed a fair bit of money has come for Ryder for BOG today. In from $17 to $11 on crownbet.

 

[PepeSilvia]

Had Richmond to win by over 15.5, so it's really fun and great that they kicked five ****ing behinds in the last quarter.

 

[ontheroad]

Sportsbet are offering a special Megabet for Robert Murphy's 300th game tomorrow. They are paying $7.00 for him to score two or more goals. In his past three games as a forward, he has kicked 1.0, 2.1, and 1.1. Against Brisbane, you would expect him to be in with a chance.

Also, Bet365 are paying $4.25 for Robbie Gray to score three or more goals tonight. That is compared to Ladbrokes' $2.75 and Sportsbet's $1.80.

Thanks for the tips. Had $30 on Robbie and $10 on Bob. Nice little earner overall - Robbie slayed it and Murphy wasn't far away either

 

[Powertron]

Who's on what this week? I'm backing up to cows/ports +60 this week paying $16...

 

[OneGreatClub]

Ninethmond to win by nine

 

[Alyx]

There aren't many tempting promotions this week. The only one that comes close is Sportsbet's Megabet, which is paying $5.00 for Jack Riewoldt and Taylor Walker to kick eight or more goals between them. I decided to create a multi of Lance Franklin (three or more goals), Jack Darling (two or more goals), Josh Jenkins (two or more goals), and Robbie Gray (three or more goals) through Bet365 for $6.55 instead.

There are also the Ross Glendinning Medal and Silk Miller Medal markets. I have backed Andrew Gaff for the former at $7.50, and Tom Mitchell for the latter at $5.00.

 

[chickentendies]

Anyone know of any decent specials going on at the moment?

 

[LFC2010]

Anyone know of any decent specials going on at the moment?

no, what ever you do don't use Sportsbet for AFL. there odds are shit compared to others.

 

[Alyx]

Sportsbet have Brett Eddy to kick 5 or more goals against Sturt @ $3.50, if anyone is interested. It is located under Megabet on the menu.

Bet365 is paying $2.00 for Robbie Gray to kick three or more goals again this week, if you want to add a bit of value to your multi. They are also paying $2.20 for Chad Wingard to kick two or more goals, or $5.00 to kick three or more goals.

 

[badbeats]

no, what ever you do don't use Sportsbet for AFL. there odds are shit compared to others.

Blame the SA Government for that.