Pies handed a 'dream' draw

[loki04]

You guys want to see an "easy" 8 block of games to get your teams tail wagging in 2017:

Round 1 Thu 23 Mar 7:20pm Blues MCG 73137 Win 132-89 43
Round 2 Thu 30 Mar 7:20pm Magpies MCG 58236 Win 99-80 19
Round 3 Sat 8 Apr 2:10pm Eagles MCG 42523 Win 76-65 11
Round 4 Sun 16 Apr 4:40pm Lions Gabba 21669 Win 119-67 52
Round 5 Mon 24 Apr 7:25pm Demons MCG 85657 Win 88-75 13
Round 6 Sun 30 Apr 4:10pm Crows Adelaide Oval 51069 Loss 64-140 76
Round 7 Sat 6 May 7:25pm Bulldogs Etihad Stadium 46387 Loss 75-80 5
Round 8 Sun 14 May 1:10pm Dockers MCG 31200 Loss 70-72

I'll let you guys work out what team that is.

 

[DaVe86]

Carlton clear winnable?

Unfortunately not under Bolton they aren't.

2016 round 7, Carlton 15.9 (99) to Collingwood 12.12 (84)
2016 round 15, Collingwood 8.9 (57) to Carlton 6.9 (45).
2017 round 7, Carlton 12.7 (79) to Collingwood 8.8 (56)

Even in our win we only won by 2 goals in a dour scrap.

I'm just talking on paper. Bottom 4 side. Carlton is definitely no gimme.

But I reckon we have a really tough start to the year, and can't see how we have a 'dream draw'. The Richmond clash 4 days after ANZAC Day is going to be a nightmare.

 

[loki04]

Dream draw hard draw who cares! teams improve and teams drop off so there is no clear outcome until the season is over, if a team is half decent they will win enough games to make finals.

Depends where your team is at.

A good start can lift a average or young team, a bad one can sink it. ATM the pies are under a pressure cooked microscope, if anyone thinks that the heat was on last year wait and see what happens if we go 2-6 this year.

 

[loki04]

I'm just talking on paper. Bottom 4 side. Carlton is definitely no gimme.

But I reckon we have a really tough start to the year, and can't see how we have a 'dream draw'. The Richmond clash 4 days after ANZAC Day is going to be a nightmare.

Yeah I'd say Brisbane is a better lock in, although I can see them lifting off the canvas somewhat next year. But I hope we beat them both by 60.

 

[Horaceg]

I hate all this BS about a soft draw (it sounds soft to me), in order to be the best we need to beat the best. We lost games we should have won so don't think a soft draw alone will get us to where we need to be (Carlton anyone, we play them twice FFS). We blew a massive lead against Adelaide, lost to GWS in Sydney when a simple Blair miss from 15m would have sealed it and only a Stevie J cameo in the dying seconds lost if for us.

It's about delivering when we need to deliver and not getting complacent as we often do. Need some more mongrel, hope that is high on the list for any new recruit, guys that just don't want to lose. Maynard has a crack, Grundy has a crack, Adams tries hard, Pendles in the consummate Professional and leads by example but is more of the polish than the mongrel, we need a balance.

We miss Dane Swan, I hope JDG can become that replacement and win games of football off his own boot just because he can.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

1. Hawthorn - MCG
2. GWS - MCG
3. Carlton - MCG
4. Crows - Adeliade.
5. Essendon - MCG
6. Richmond - MCG
7. Brisbane - Gabba
8. Geelong - MCG


So 2018 first 8 games is vs 5/8 of last years top 8, 4/4 last years top 4. Top notch investigative skills.

Team better hit the ground running is all I can say.

Gotta be 4 and 4 or at least 3 and 5, if we aren't we're screwed.

 

[Scodog10]

Objectively its not, that block of games in the first 8 rounds is actually harder then last year based off ACTUAL results.

Sure if we improve and other teams drop off a few % we could have better results, arguably last season we were a few accurate shots off multiple games from having a completely different season but we didn't.

Once confidence erodes its very hard to get it back in season, on top of this it makes you more prone to mistakes ad dwelling on your stuff ups, thereby putting more undue pressure on yourself and ultimately leading to more stuff ups.

Now as I said if we come out of that 8 game block 50/50 or better then yes we set the *rest* of the season up, but first you must get through that block of condensed proven performers with your tail still wagging.

I know you wont agree, as you don't want there to be any seen excuses for old mate. So it is clouding your usually reasoned opinion.

You can cherry pick any element of it.

For instance the 6 weeks following the period you chose are against bottom 10 teams therefore 9 of the first 14 are against teams we should be beating. Go 4-4 in the first 8 (not a daunting task with 6 at the G) and we’re set.

My advice, stop taking the negative and realise that for once we’ve been given the leg up we deserved.

 

[doppleganger]

Depends where your team is at.

A good start can lift a average or young team, a bad one can sink it. ATM the pies are under a pressure cooked microscope, if anyone thinks that the heat was on last year wait and see what happens if we go 2-6 this year.

Agree with this....

It is a challenging start.

Rd1 - Hawthorn is a 50/50 clash, both teams would expect to win it....
Rd2 - Giants at the G, would most likely start underdogs in this although at home would back us in.

If we can jump out of the blocks with two wins it sets our season up, but blow the Hawks game and if Giants are a crack team next year we could be sitting 0-2 with these next two on the horizon.

Rd3 - Carlton
Rd4 - Adelaide (AO)

Absolute huge focus on that Blues game if we start 0-2, as the trip to Adelaide will be tough to take anything from even if we are rolling.

Then the quick ANZAC turnaround

Essendon and Richmond in 4 days will be a challenge to split

The opening two games are crucial, blow them and then yes can see a similar downward spiral where we potentially are 1-3 heading into ANZAC and the quick double against Essendon and Richmond, and huge pressure on us to get some results.....season could be over before we get into the 'easy' part.

 

[Mongo Ming]

I think the gripes are about bunching them all into the first block of games. Obviously when you are a good side it does not worry you but for a team rising it can create the laughable craptastic shit we saw happen last year.

A few early losses and the wheels will fall off.

At least we'll know where we are at early, though not sure BF will be a nice place to visit if it's a repeat of last year like you said!

But in reality I think it's better to get a block like out the way early. You don't want to cop it at the end of the season when you're getting tired and the top teams are jostling for finals spots.

Let's break down the first 6 games:

Round One

Hawthorn v Collingwood MCG - Winnable

Round Two

Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney MCG - Definitely winnable at the G

Round Three

Carlton v Collingwood MCG - very winnable if we don't spud up as we like to do v the Scum of late

Round Four

Adelaide v Collingwood, Adelaide Oval - Probable loss

Round Five

Collingwood v Essendon MCG - Winnable. Quite possible the Dons were on a "high" last year coming off the supplement bans. They might get the sophomore slump in 2018, regardless of new recruits.

Round Six

Collingwood v Richmond MCG - Winnable. Tigs may be coming off a GF but they can still be flaky as a Home Brand Sausage Roll. I can see them being like the Dogs, where they assed a flag then move back to the pack. We ran them close this year too and now should have worked out their gameplan

A glass half full view maybe, but not a dire start. 5 out of 6 at the G is pretty good.

 

[Countrypie]

Even with a dream draw, we will still **** it up under Buckley and end up 14th.

I've got no confidence in his coaching ability.

Why bother posting then?

 

[doppleganger]

You can cherry pick any element of it.

For instance the 6 weeks following the period you chose are against bottom 10 teams therefore 9 of the first 14 are against teams we should be beating. Go 4-4 in the first 8 (not a daunting task with 6 at the G) and we’re set.

My advice, stop taking the negative and realise that for once we’ve been given the leg up we deserved.

How you open the season can build confidence in the group. You jump out of the blocks with some wins and the self belief of the group grows and you gather positive momentum.

If you get a slow start self doubt creeps in, players tighten up and are somewhat paralysed by the fear of making a mistake. All of a sudden the knives are out, and the focus will again be on the coach.....and the season is derailed before it even gets to the 'easy' fixtures. could see us sit 1-5, and the confidence in the group is shot again focus comes on Buckley and when he is sacked and the season is derailed.

The first six games are crucial for us next year, and the happen to be pretty tough...the 'easy' games being Hawthorn and Carlton who we have battled against in recent seasons anyway.

 

[loki04]

You can cherry pick any element of it.

For instance the 6 weeks following the period you chose are against bottom 10 teams therefore 9 of the first 14 are against teams we should be beating. Go 4-4 in the first 8 (not a daunting task with 6 at the G) and we’re set.

My advice, stop taking the negative and realise that for once we’ve been given the leg up we deserved.

It's not cherry picking its looking at the first part of our season (to start with compared to last years draw) and seeing that we play 5/8 last years top 8 and 4/4 last years top 4.
This start can have significant bearing on the rest of the year for where our side sits.

An easy draw is the one I posted a few posts above with results and that team went on, carried the momentum and confidence it gained through the year from the start to win a flag.

A confident team can rise above its status like wise a bereft team can fall, see Rich and Pies fates last year.

2017 Richmond block of 8, https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/pies-handed-a-dream-draw.1181418/page-4#post-53273501

 

[Maggie5]

I don't see it as a 'dream' draw although it is better than past years, just hope that we have a full squad and test ourselves amongst the best and win those we should.

A dream draw is what Geelong has:
Their season is bookended by a sporting first month (three of the first four against non-finalists from last season) and a friendly final six weeks where they don't have to leave Victoria. In between the fixture is loaded with mouth-watering match-ups, although back-to-back Thursday nights away to Adelaide and Sydney will be tough. Nine matches on their home deck – where they've traditionally had such an advantage – is a huge win.

 

[Piestration]

We don’t get West Coast twice?

And we get to play both WA teams at the G . Now that has never happened.
Our home court is the MCG so it pizzes me off when we have to play interstate teams at the Dome.

 

[doppleganger]

Giants also have a good start

Rd1 Home v a non-finalist in - Dogs
Rd2 Away v a bottom six team - Collingwood
Rd3 'Away' in the local clash against Sydney
Rd4 Home v a bottom six team - Freo
Rd5 Away v a non-finalist - Saints
Rd6 Home v a bottom six team - Lions

They face just one finals team in first six weeks, Sydney.

 

[loki04]

At least we'll know where we are at early, though not sure BF will be a nice place to visit if it's a repeat of last year like you said!

But in reality I think it's better to get a block like out the way early. You don't want to cop it at the end of the season when you're getting tired and the top teams are jostling for finals spots.

Let's break down the first 6 games:

Round One

Hawthorn v Collingwood MCG - Winnable

Round Two

Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney MCG - Definitely winnable at the G

Round Three

Carlton v Collingwood MCG - very winnable if we don't spud up as we like to do v the Scum of late

Round Four

Adelaide v Collingwood, Adelaide Oval - Probable loss

Round Five

Collingwood v Essendon MCG - Winnable. Quite possible the Dons were on a "high" last year coming off the supplement bans. They might get the sophomore slump in 2018, regardless of new recruits.

Round Six

Collingwood v Richmond MCG - Winnable. Tigs may be coming off a GF but they can still be flaky as a Home Brand Sausage Roll. I can see them being like the Dogs, where they assed a flag then move back to the pack. We ran them close this year too and now should have worked out their gameplan

A glass half full view maybe, but not a dire start. 5 out of 6 at the G is pretty good.

A few points.

1. I am not saying we *can't* beat these teams or have no hope, the original argument is it is a soft draw and was compared to our nightmare start and due to it "hard" draw last season.
They have bunched that top 5/8 and top 4 group at the start straight up turning the heat on the club to 10 (also pointed out it is actually harder then last years grouping). By any measure it is a hard start to the season the opposite of the "soft" calls, if we lose a few early its on like donkey kong.

2. MCG games only counts vs GWS. Crows and Lions away. Hawks, Ess, Carl, Geel, Rich is a neutral venue and has no bearing on the outcome.

3.
Essendon have significantly improved their list, they already had our measure last year easily, we can't handle pacey teams.
Carlton again of recent times (under bolton) have had more wins then losses from our last 3 encounters.
Hawks another team pies tend to struggle against, with a few more outs hopefully we turn it around.
Geelong bunnies a bit but with a healthy Selwood, Ablett and Dangerfield as a starting trio, you got me if you think that is going to be an easy game.
Richmond is premiers but I don't believe they are miles better then us, regardless a tough game.
Crows away is a big ask.
GWS after another preseason will be top 4 team again. Regardless of played in melb or Syd they have the talent to take it up to us.

 

[CarnMags]

Good draw. 9-3 by round 12. Back in the 4 next year.

Looking at our first 10 games, I think we could likely be 3-7 and under pressure from the get go.

 

[DraftBalta]

COLLINGWOOD

First Game

A mouth-watering clash against Hawthorn in Round 1 could set up Collingwood’s season or put Nathan Buckley and the club on the back foot from the outset. The game will begin at 3.20pm on Sunday March 24.

Pencil In Your Calendar

Round 5. Anzac Day, of course. The Magpies will have 12 days to prepare for this annual blockbuster following a Round 4 clash against Adelaide. Put it in your diary.

Prime Time

The Magpies have three Friday night games in 2018, up from two in 2017. However Collingwood has not maintained its one Thursday night timeslot, while the club will play five Saturday night matches.

Interstate Trips

In 2017 Collingwood played 17 games in Victoria and 2018 will be identical. But unlike last year, the Magpies will travel to Western Australia next season.

Six-Day Breaks

Collingwood has six six-day breaks. One of these shortened rests is a four-day break between Rounds 5 and 6.

The Observation

Collingwood’s bizarre three-game period of Rounds 4, 5 and 6 will test the club’s depth and conditioning staff. A 12-day break follows an Adelaide Oval blockbuster ahead of Anzac Day. But given the timing of Anzac Day in 2018 (a Wednesday), it will leave the club just four days to recover and prepare for Richmond in Round 6.


https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...k/news-story/d44f60f168fdf0df7e55f8a6a6160605

 

[mattys123]

I'm just talking on paper. Bottom 4 side. Carlton is definitely no gimme.

But I reckon we have a really tough start to the year, and can't see how we have a 'dream draw'. The Richmond clash 4 days after ANZAC Day is going to be a nightmare.

At least though the AFL has used some common sense and flipped the fixtures on ANZAC day and the night before. They didn't do that last year, although we still won our next game, against Geelong (although we then dropped the Carlton game 6 days later).

We of course would have preferred to play Melbourne twice, and especially the game after AD, as they've shown on plenty of occassions that they are a mentally weak team.

 

[spartan-magpie]

Looking at our first 10 games, I think we could likely be 3-7 and under pressure from the get go.

You’re half empty. I’m half full.

 

[Magpie Girl]

Two things
I hate the spin the Herald Sun has put on this - really inappropriate
And a tough 4 day break between Anzac Day and Richmond

And yes, Anzacday they announced this morning the bye will remain

 

[Gone Critical]

I think a good team will win a premiership regardless of the draw. But I think a good draw can be the difference between coming top 4 or top 8...or slipping just outside the 8.

No doubt Richmond snuck into the 8 this year because of how good their draw was. I reckon they would've won the flag regardless because they had so much momentum....but you never know. An extra game may have meant another injury, suspension, fatigue etc.

I cant agree they snuck into the 8 on their draw. They were 3 games inside the 8

What I am interested in how people quantify the difference between a good draw. Cause when I look at Richmonds doubles ups in 2017 they had one win against Freo, GWS and St K and 2 wins V Carl and Lions. So in the 6 games they had against 2016 bottom 6 teams they won 5. So give them one less match against the bottom 6 and one more against either the middle or top 6 and suddenly they dontvhave an easy draw.

The difference I would quantify that making is possibly one extra loss. Doesnt tip them out of the 8 but maybe in this case could have been the difference between top 4. Maybe.

In the end I see the usual difference between a good draw and a bad draw as giving you a better chance at getting 1 extra win for the season. I get the feeling a lot of people see the advantage as much bigger than that.

 

[loki04]

I cant qgree they snuck into the 8 on their draw. They were 3 games inside the 8

What I am interested in how people quantify the difference between a good draw. Cause when I look at Richmonds doubles ups in 2017 they had one win against Freo, GWS and St K and 2 wins V Carl and Lions. So in the 6 games they had against 2016 bottom 6 teams they won 5. So give them one less match against the bottom 6 and one more against either the middle or top 6 and suddenly they dontvhave an easy draw.

The difference I would quantify that making is possibly one extra loss. Doesnt tip them out of the 8 but maybe in this case could have been the difference between top 4. Maybe.

In the end I see the usual difference between a good draw and a bad draw as giving you a better chance at getting 1 extra win for the season. I get the feeling a lot of people see the advantage as much bigger than that.

Multiple factors can play into a "hard" or "easy" draw.

Firstly, where your team sits list wise, exp, ave age, talent, mindset/confidence etc. vs opponents whether double up games or batches of top teams.

Extending from that Top team batching and *placements* through your draw vs list stages.

For example a bottom 6 team who has a relatively younger list generally would prefer to build confidence before having a run of top 8 sides. Getting too many early season loss' can be deflating and further to that lose confidence in not only ability of the individual but in the coaches plan.

Where as a genuine experienced top 4 list will not be fussed where it meets the other contenders.

Secondly, your double up games (what most people ONLY look at).

3. Home ground advantages vs neutral games vs away games (more bearing for non vic sides).

4. Breaks between games ie 4 day turn around, multiple 5 days or 6 for some teams etc etc.

 

[Magpie Girl]

How does Richmond’s post premiership draw compared to the Bulldogs this year?

 

[Kappa]

Am I the only one who would rather a hard draw than an easy one?

Artificially inflate your spot on the ladder for a season before crashing out of the finals and missing out on the high end draft picks you need.. hurray.