Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[NYRB]

Biden ran on the basis of being a 1 term president. Trump will be in jail
it will be someone else

Names like Ron DeSasntis, Nikki Haley, Dwayne Johnson, Mike Pompeo are new to me

 

[HeathySure]

Names like Ron DeSasntis, Nikki Haley, Dwayne Johnson, Mike Pompeo are new to me

lol
its a stay away until we know who runs. Or a throw at the stumps on someone at huge odds hoping for a fluke

 

[iluvparis]

lol
its a stay away until we know who runs. Or a throw at the stumps on someone at huge odds hoping for a fluke

Any chance Wayne Hawkes was born in the USA?

 

[NYRB]

2024 US Presidential Winner:
Trump 4.60
Biden 5.20
Kamala Harris 8

Harris is the one that has made a bit of a move

 

[maskmcgee]

So Trump will run, he is 100% certain to win the Republican nomination, $2.37 if you want to wait 2.5 years for it to be official.

 

[54Dogs]

So Trump will run, he is 100% certain to win the Republican nomination, $2.37 if you want to wait 2.5 years for it to be official.

No risk of 1 of the 397 law suits against him being upheld, to make him ineligible?

 

[NYRB]

Smarkets 2024 Republican Nominee:

Trump 2.30
DeSantis 7.60
Nikki Haley 9
Mike Pence 15
Ted Cruz 27
Mike Pompeo 29
Tucker Carlson 29
Mike Lindell 30
Tom Cotton 34
Josh Hawley 42
Kristi Noem 46
Tim Scott 48
Larry Hogan 50


I dont know about you guys but I dont fancy Trump to be the Republican Nominee in the next campaign. Im interested in this guy called DeSantis. I'll be doing my research on those other candidates............

 

[RobbyRoy]

Jesus that's a dire list of names.

 

[maskmcgee]

No risk of 1 of the 397 law suits against him being upheld, to make him ineligible?

Nothing can make you ineligble. He could be sentenced to death today and he'd still win the nomination.

 

[Nalts]

Rumour has it Albo has told the ALP to prepare for a December 11 fed election. Paying 5.5-1 for it to happen this year or 7-1 for in December specifically.

 

[54Dogs]

would be rare for an election so near Christmas?

 

[iluvparis]

would be rare for an election so near Christmas?

Yes - one of the many 'dont piss off the voters' reasons for not having a December election historically.

 

[54Dogs]

Interesting article on options here

It'll be a campaign like no other, but when will Australians actually go to the polls?

Anything goes in a COVID-19 election, but there are some dates that look more likely for when Australia will go to the polls.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Nalts]

Albo’s bold election prediction

Labor MPs have been told to prepare for the possibility of a December election, with Anthony Albanese telling colleagues the Prime Minister could call a snap poll on his return from a major climate summit.

www.news.com.au

 

[NYRB]

someone may have to excuse my knowledge here but does winning Most Australian Seats meaning winning the Australian election?

Smarkets Betting Exchange:

 

[kickazz]

someone may have to excuse my knowledge here but does winning Most Australian Seats meaning winning the Australian election?

Smarkets Betting Exchange:

You'd need to read the market's specific rules, but in the event of a close election, they may well be two different things.

"Winning the Election" is usually defined by the bookies as the party who provides the next Prime Minister.

'Most Seats" is just that, which party gets the most seats.

So if we end up with a minority government, with a set of independents and minor parties promising supply/confidence to one party, enabling them to form government, that party may not necessarily have the most seats.


e.g:

Coalition: 73 seats
Labor: 72 seats
Others: 5 seats

If the "Others" all agree to vote with Labor then a Labor government will be formed, even though the Coalition have the most seats.


But you need to read the market rules for each bet.

 

[NYRB]

Truly catastrophic night for Democrats and Biden's agenda, with grim signals for 2022 and 2024. However backing Republicans for Winning Party makes much more sense than Trump. Results strongly suggest they'll fare better with somebody else, less toxic.

 

[HeathySure]

Truly catastrophic night for Democrats and Biden's agenda, with grim signals for 2022 and 2024. However backing Republicans for Winning Party makes much more sense than Trump. Results strongly suggest they'll fare better with somebody else, less toxic.

Its way too early to predict whats going to happen in 2024. Biden said he is a 1 term president and so many things can happen. Unless there are some riculous odds out there and you can trade i doubt its a good idea to bet so early

 

[maskmcgee]

Truly catastrophic night for Democrats and Biden's agenda, with grim signals for 2022 and 2024. However backing Republicans for Winning Party makes much more sense than Trump. Results strongly suggest they'll fare better with somebody else, less toxic.

Trump has a 90%+ approval rating among Republicans. More than half believe the election was won by Trump. Nobody is going to beat him in a primary.

 

[iluvparis]

How is Any other not $500+ here? Is this counting for the risk that Trump forms his own party and wins?

 

[HeathySure]

you cant win when you are in jail. And it will happen

 

[maskmcgee]

you cant win when you are in jail. And it will happen

You most certainly can. In 1920 the socialist candidate reviewed 3.2% of the vote while he was serving 10 years in prison for sedetion.

 

[maskmcgee]

You put 10k on Liberals to win Willoughby by-election (Gladys' seat) win $500.

 

[NYRB]

You put 10k on Liberals to win Willoughby by-election (Gladys' seat) win $500.

That's not a big surprise.......Gladys office is based there and its traditionally been a Liberal area.

 

[maskmcgee]

That's not a big surprise.......Gladys office is based there and its traditionally been a Liberal area.

That was my point, free money.