Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[NYRB]

Tough choice for many Tory voters having to pick between a colored man and a pair of women.

To be fair this last 8 is as diversified as one can get.

You've got a women, an Iraqi born candidate, Nigerian born, Indian born parents

 

[NYRB]

And then they were down to 6....................



All head to head polls on YouGov not looking good for Rishi today.

 

[NYRB]

First Round Votes:

Sunak 88
Mordaunt 67
Truss 50
Badenoch 40
Tugendhat 37
Braverman 32

 

[54Dogs]

First Round Votes:

Sunak 88
Mordaunt 67
Truss 50
Badenoch 40
Tugendhat 37
Braverman 32

That was 8 or more votes required to get through yeah? Next layer is higher, then top 2 then the vote goes to conservative members I think

 

[NYRB]

That was 8 or more votes required to get through yeah? Next layer is higher, then top 2 then the vote goes to conservative members I think

And then they were down to 5...........



Latest Odds from the Betting Exchange:

Mordaunt 1.75
Sunak 4.50
Truss 5.60
Badenoch 20
Tugendhat 70

 

[NYRB]

TV Debate is next on the agenda

 

[NYRB]

And then we were down to 3 to contest the Leadership for the Conservatives



Sunak 2.02
Truss 2.16
Mordaunt 6

Early odds from the Exchange

 

[54Dogs]

Cant see this one going away with NSW currently 1.90 each

 

[NYRB]

Head to Head conservative Leader

Sunak 2.40 v 1.70 Truss

am happy to take Sunak at above evens at that price.

 

[NYRB]

Truss a 75% chance to win the Conservative leadership after the debate last night

 

[NYRB]

All the signs from the YouGov poll suggesting its Truss PM takeover

 

[NYRB]

I dont follow Brazil politics that closely but is there any likelihood of an upset before the 30th October second run off?

Odds from SMarkets

da Silva $1.38 v $3.40 Bolsonaro

 

[rank and file]

I dont follow Brazil politics that closely but is there any likelihood of an upset before the 30th October second run off?

Odds from SMarkets

da Silva $1.38 v $3.40 Bolsonaro

The Trump of the Tropics,when he loses you know he's going to call it rigged.

 

[rank and file]

Looks like chips in for the right wing.



Depends on who the minor parties endorse.

 

[maskmcgee]

2022 US Senate

Competitive States
* = open seat
Arizona (D) D $1.41 R $2.82
Florida (R) D $5.75 R $1.13
Georgia (D) D $1.56 R $2.40
Nevada (D) D $2.50 R $1.53
New Hampshire (D) D $1.14 R $5.75
North Carolina (R*) D $3.75 R $1.25
Ohio (R*) D $3.95 R $1.24
Pennsylvania (R*) D $1.48 R $2.57
Wisconsin (R) D $3.75 R $1.25

Other interesting races
Alaska - R $1.02 D $34 - Two Republicans are on the ballot, the anti-Trump incumbent and a Trump endorsed cantidate. Only one Democrat on the ballot, potential to split the vote.

Utah - Republicans $1.06, Any other $8.50 - The incumbent pro-Trump republican is running against anti Trump Republican Evan McMullin, who won 21.5% of the vote in Utah in the 2016 Presidential election as an independent. Trump only received 45% of the vote in Utah in 2016, and the Utah Democratic party have declined to run a candidate, instead endorsing McMullin. McMullin is competitive in the polls and won the most recent poll, 49-43
over the incumbent.

Senate Majority
Republican - $2.20
Democratic - $4.50
No Majority - $2.30

The majority requires 51 seats for the party, independents do not count. Currently the Senate is 50R, 48D, 2I. I don't see the Republicans picking up any seats, and probably losing Pennsylvania, possibly Utah, no majority seems most likely.

 

[NYRB]

The gap is closing in the Brazilian elections this week:

 

[maskmcgee]

Crystal Balls finals predctions are out

Their final changes were
Nevada from Toss up to Lean D - $3.55
Georgia from Toss up to Lean R - $1.52
Pennsylvania from Lead D to Lean R $1.60

I don't know about those, could all be wrong.

 

[NYRB]

Now that Elon Musk has allowed Donald Trump back on the Twitter social media platform, the question is will Trump do a Tweet before the end of the year?



Smarkets Exchange has it as

$1.76 Yes v $2.12 No (odds 23/11/22)

 

[pendlebury_10]

Anyone having a nibble at the Victorian Election today ? I've had a small play on the Coalition to prevail ($7 TAB), we know Dan has everyone in his pocket but the vast majority of the general public want him out.

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone having a nibble at the Victorian Election today ? I've had a small play on the Coalition to prevail ($7 TAB), we know Dan has everyone in his pocket but the vast majority of the general public want him out.

The problem is - do they want Guy in?

 

[pendlebury_10]

The problem is - do they want Guy in?

Spot on, if they had a leader who was a half decent candidate then there would be no doubt. I draw hope from the fact that we voted an inept Albenese in to run our great country.

 

[iluvparis]

Spot on, if they had a leader who was a half decent candidate then there would be no doubt. I draw hope from the fact that we voted an inept Albenese in to run our great country.

Yes because the prior ruling government showed no ineptness at all and did a sterling job.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

LOL @ the polls, everyone hates Dan Andrew’s and Matthew Guy.

Smashed again

 

[NYRB]

US Presidential Election 2024

Presidential Winner

Ron de Santis at $18

Republican Nominees

Mike Pence at $100

Chris Christie at $75

I think Christie can beat Donald Trump and there is a likelihood Trump fails in federal court indictment trials in 2024.

 

[checkraiseulite]

why are niche bookies offering odds on the referendum and no betfair market?

edit: why didn't i just google it? Australia’s betting agencies find one thing they won’t touch – the voice referendum.