Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[ferrisb]

So it seems Josh Shaperio is a cert for VP, but still paying $1.25?

Tim Walzed straight in

 

[anabac]

Kamala into $1.85 the Don $2+

 

[rank and file]

Put a bet on Nicki Haley @251 on Sunday night,
currently at $51.
Waiting for the Trump implosion or a nearby explosion.

 

[anabac]

Put a bet on Nicki Haley @251 on Sunday night,
currently at $51.
Waiting for the Trump implosion or a nearby explosion.
View attachment 2078299

Love it. Betting on a $251 pop in US politics at 1:25am. Peak degen I salute you

Can still get $101 for Haley on SB for anyone interested in tailing rank

 

[rank and file]

Love it. Betting on a $251 pop in US politics at 1:25am. Peak degen I salute you

Can still get $101 for Haley on SB for anyone interested in tailing rank

Definite longshot,was just puting futures on after Olympic Woman's Boxing fill up.
Looking closely at woman's cycling.

 

[maskmcgee]

This is how the betting markets are on individual state results. Pennsylvania and Nevada have $1.85 favourites, the 'leans' are around $1.50, 'Likely' are $1.10 or less, 'safe' has no market for it. Democrats in Virginia $1.10 seems the safe money if you wanted to chuck everything in for a free 10%. $1.53 for Republicans in North Carolina, which is always close but the Republicans always manage to win since 2012. Nevada for the Democrats $1.90 for the same reason, often close but have won every year since 2008. Arizona $2.40 for the Democrats/$1.50 for Republicans another interesting one, Democrats won it last time and won 3 straight senate elections in 3 straight cycles, I think $2.40 has a fair bit of value in it.

Although, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia all voted more Republican than the nation at large did in 2020, and Trump is likely to preform better in the national popular vote than he did in 2020, so those states could have value in them. If Harris were to outperform Biden, which polling suggests is very unlikely, only North Carolina and Florida were within a 5% margin, so everything outside those states is probably too far.

 

[ep2018]

Florida has abortion on the ballot, every other state that has voted on abortion rights have seen a large increase in voter turnout, with several of these votes going against polling and handing Democrats large wins as well. If that trend continues, Florida is in play for the Dems. Its paying $6 with bookies right now, worth a punt.

 

[maskmcgee]

 

[anabac]

Interesting Harris back out to black figures and Donald firming $1.70

 

[ash_1050]

Interesting Harris back out to black figures and Donald firming $1.70

Wouldn't read too much into the H2H markets, they've been wrong pretty often for elections in the US, UK and Australia.

 

[maskmcgee]

I think Trump is more likely to win from here for a few reasons.

• Both times he's been on the ballot he has outperformed his poll numbers by substantial margins
• When Harris replaced Biden she took a small lead in the national polls. Despite months of campaigning and debates and conventions her poll numbers have remained virtually unchanged the entire time
• Even though Harris leads in the national polls, conventional wisdom is for a Democrat to win the election they need to win the national popular vote by at least 5%, far more than the 1-2% lead Harris has held for months

So Trump is not only likely to outperform the polls, those polls already have Trump either winning or very close to it, and Harris it appears will do worse than Biden did in 2020, and he only won the winning electoral votes by about 30,000 votes.

And you still have the other structural advantages for a flip of the Whitehouse. Unpopular incumbent, unstable world stage and most importantly perception of the economy is that it sucks, and perception of the economy has decided virtually every election in modern history.

 

[anabac]

Interesting Harris back out to black figures and Donald firming $1.70

Trump firming again into $1.60

 

[maskmcgee]

Trump firming again into $1.60

The bookies are being forced into matching Polymarket.

 

[maskmcgee]

Kamala Harris to win the popular vote $1.40 at 365, the real odds of this should be about $1.05

 

[maskmcgee]

Trump firms again after working in Mcdonalds, Harris out to $2.40

 

[burge13]

Bookies are just moving odds to insure they get even money on both results, nothing more.

It means more idiots are betting trump than Harris atm. There won't be much smart money in that market IMO

 

[maskmcgee]

It means more idiots are betting trump than Harris atm. There won't be much smart money in that market IMO

Are you using polls or just the fact he's Trump, like people did in 2016? Trump is leading in the polls in every swing state. And if the last 2 elections are anything to go by he will do 2-10% better than his polls. Only Republican candidates are increasing their poll numbers, Democrats are all staying the same as they have for the last 2 months. The way things are right now I'd say a Trump electoral college landslide is more likely than a Harris win.

 

[maskmcgee]

View attachment 2138375

10 days later


At the moment, if you are saying Trump is not favourite to win, you are simply wrong.

 

[burge13]

Are you using polls or just the fact he's Trump, like people did in 2016? Trump is leading in the polls in every swing state. And if the last 2 elections are anything to go by he will do 2-10% better than his polls. Only Republican candidates are increasing their poll numbers, Democrats are all staying the same as they have for the last 2 months. The way things are right now I'd say a Trump electoral college landslide is more likely than a Harris win.

I'm fine with Trump winning, no problem whatsoever. Hope he does beat that blibbering idiot. I just don't think bookies who want equal funds on both sides is any metric

 

[ash_1050]

Kamala Harris to win the popular vote $1.40 at 365, the real odds of this should be about $1.05

Good spot, the Democrats have won the popular vote every election since 1992 with the exception of 2004.

By no means a gimme with how (bizarrely) close this election is but should be a Democrat W for the bet.

Edit: Nabbed $1.46 on Betfair

 

[maskmcgee]

Yep, they overpoll swing states and underpoll California. If Trump wins the popular vote it'll be a wipeout in the Electoral college.

 

[Hawksboy72]

Jeez, McTrump $1.53, interesting to hear Meghan Kelly on Paul Murray the other night saying the Trump people have it a 50/50 Split.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[iDon]

10 days later
View attachment 2149149

At the moment, if you are saying Trump is not favourite to win, you are simply wrong.

and the source of that poll is?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I bet $100 on JD Vance to win paying $40,000.

Trump getting killed by someone is still live, and Vance would succeed him in that event.

Wish I had have taken Harris to arb it after Biden's catastrophe in the debate, but I listened to Alex Jones who said Hilary Clinton was going to somehow replace him

 

[maskmcgee]

and the source of that poll is?

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

Harris lead down to 0.7 nationally