Nunez
Premium Platinum
A week is a long time in footy.
Yes, it’s a cliché that would make Fish Whiting shudder, but the anything-but-linear nature of season 2023 epitomises just how much of an impact a week can have.
For this preview to begin, we must start from round 23.
The final siren rang through the Gabba. Zorko was the disgrace of the competition. Rayner and Answerth were suspended. Brisbane were pretenders, destined to fall short to an in-form Richmond Tigers.
Fast forward a fortnight (maybe a fortnight is also a long time in footy?), Brisbane play the ‘sure thing’ Richmond in a final that had everything and more. They win in the most unlikely of ways (thanks Joe!) and left millions of neutral AFL fans celebrating a match of the year contender, all the while assuming Brisbane were on their way to another drumming at the hands of the Demons.
Fast forward another week. It’s game day and Fagan gets a call. Last week’s matchwinner Joe Daniher is flying home due to his partner giving birth. Fullarton is in. The betting odds skyrocket to 4.50. Brisbane can’t win in the minds of most, if not all.
But we did. Through sheer persistence, belief and desire, we fought and fought until we hit the lead. From that moment, we would not be surrendering the victory under any circumstances. The final siren rang through the MCG this time, and with it were the words “We are the pride of Brisbane town”.
A date with our old foes Geelong was set and in a week’s time we will walk the hallowed grounds of the MCG once again.
The narrative has not changed. Brisbane play the ‘sure thing’ Geelong, they will get smashed, Geelong are basically already through to the grand final. Brisbane can’t win without Berry. The list goes on.
A week is a long time in footy.
The Matchup
If you are to believe the media, you’d think we’re a young, plucky David walking into the colosseum to fight the demi-god known as Goliath, yet the stats paint a very different picture.
Brisbane and Geelong had very similar seasons. Both teams average 14 goals a game, have similar disposal efficiency (both around the ground and inside 50). The hitouts are only slightly in the Lions favour, while the Lions average 2 more clearances a game than the Cats (including 1 more a game from the centre).
Where Geelong excel over Brisbane is marks inside 50 thanks to Tom Hawkins. If he is on, Geelong are a very hard team to stop.
Despite Hawkins’ dominance in the contested marking space, Brisbane has a slight edge in contested marks which says to me – shut Hawkins down, shut Geelong’s marking power down. While Cameron is an incredible player, his work is done around the F50 just as much as it’s done deep. Like Hipwood, he’ll be a hard player to stop, but if we can stop his foils in Hawkins and Stengle, then their potency will take a big hit.
Looking at our match against Melbourne (who have a superior midfield to Geelong), we lost clearances soundly but cut them up on the outside through uncontested possession chains. While Brisbane have always been good in this area, the tactical change in personal has meant we are much, much stronger on the spread and – as we saw just a few days ago – makes up for the hit we take in clearances.
In many ways, Geelong’s resurgence of 2022 (and I say resurgence as they made some personal and tactical changes that have aided them in a big way this year) mirrors that of our past fortnight. A newfound focus in moving the ball fast to avoid contested situations, but an absolute willingness to scrap and run both ways.
So, both teams match up on each other well, how will each team win?
Geelong
Geelong win this by doing what they’ve done to us many times over the years – bully us around the ball until we submit to their physicality then let their forwards do the work. It is a recipe for success that we always struggle to counter. If they can pressure us around the ball and bully our younger mids physically, then we will struggle to stop their inside 50s. If Geelong get easy inside 50’s, we will lose by 30-50 points with ease.
Brisbane
While beating Melbourne was incredibly satisfying as a fan, watching the replay with a level head led me to think about how this game style would stand up to Geelong and – after a quick check of a specific stat – it was plain to see. 1%ers. Geelong – for all their weapons – are not all that good at 1%ers. They need to beat you with physicality around the ball and their fantastic zone defence. When it comes to the gritty side of footy, things like knock-ons, spoils, smothers and shepherds are not Geelong’s strong suit.
While throughout the year we were about 5 a game better than they were, we’ve gone to another level in finals. Across the two finals, we’ve averaged 64 1%ers to Geelong’s 47 across the season (including their final win against Collingwood).
If we can bring the same level of pressure, desperation, fight and belief then we can win against the Cats as we did Richmond and Melbourne. Play fast, and stop the oppositions attack at all cost and this game is absolutely up for grabs.
Final thoughts
In the past 3 weeks we’ve been disgraced, pretenders, lucky, given no chance against the dynasty Dees, plucky, gritty and ultimately victorious. This war has two more battles left to fight and our troops are well and truly up for the challenge.
While a week is a long time in footy, the opportunity the Brisbane Lions have this finals series is a chance at immortality. What happens next is up to the 44 players who take field this Friday.
Go Lions!
Yes, it’s a cliché that would make Fish Whiting shudder, but the anything-but-linear nature of season 2023 epitomises just how much of an impact a week can have.
For this preview to begin, we must start from round 23.
The final siren rang through the Gabba. Zorko was the disgrace of the competition. Rayner and Answerth were suspended. Brisbane were pretenders, destined to fall short to an in-form Richmond Tigers.
Fast forward a fortnight (maybe a fortnight is also a long time in footy?), Brisbane play the ‘sure thing’ Richmond in a final that had everything and more. They win in the most unlikely of ways (thanks Joe!) and left millions of neutral AFL fans celebrating a match of the year contender, all the while assuming Brisbane were on their way to another drumming at the hands of the Demons.
Fast forward another week. It’s game day and Fagan gets a call. Last week’s matchwinner Joe Daniher is flying home due to his partner giving birth. Fullarton is in. The betting odds skyrocket to 4.50. Brisbane can’t win in the minds of most, if not all.
But we did. Through sheer persistence, belief and desire, we fought and fought until we hit the lead. From that moment, we would not be surrendering the victory under any circumstances. The final siren rang through the MCG this time, and with it were the words “We are the pride of Brisbane town”.
A date with our old foes Geelong was set and in a week’s time we will walk the hallowed grounds of the MCG once again.
The narrative has not changed. Brisbane play the ‘sure thing’ Geelong, they will get smashed, Geelong are basically already through to the grand final. Brisbane can’t win without Berry. The list goes on.
A week is a long time in footy.
The Matchup
If you are to believe the media, you’d think we’re a young, plucky David walking into the colosseum to fight the demi-god known as Goliath, yet the stats paint a very different picture.
Brisbane and Geelong had very similar seasons. Both teams average 14 goals a game, have similar disposal efficiency (both around the ground and inside 50). The hitouts are only slightly in the Lions favour, while the Lions average 2 more clearances a game than the Cats (including 1 more a game from the centre).
Where Geelong excel over Brisbane is marks inside 50 thanks to Tom Hawkins. If he is on, Geelong are a very hard team to stop.
Despite Hawkins’ dominance in the contested marking space, Brisbane has a slight edge in contested marks which says to me – shut Hawkins down, shut Geelong’s marking power down. While Cameron is an incredible player, his work is done around the F50 just as much as it’s done deep. Like Hipwood, he’ll be a hard player to stop, but if we can stop his foils in Hawkins and Stengle, then their potency will take a big hit.
Looking at our match against Melbourne (who have a superior midfield to Geelong), we lost clearances soundly but cut them up on the outside through uncontested possession chains. While Brisbane have always been good in this area, the tactical change in personal has meant we are much, much stronger on the spread and – as we saw just a few days ago – makes up for the hit we take in clearances.
In many ways, Geelong’s resurgence of 2022 (and I say resurgence as they made some personal and tactical changes that have aided them in a big way this year) mirrors that of our past fortnight. A newfound focus in moving the ball fast to avoid contested situations, but an absolute willingness to scrap and run both ways.
So, both teams match up on each other well, how will each team win?
Geelong
Geelong win this by doing what they’ve done to us many times over the years – bully us around the ball until we submit to their physicality then let their forwards do the work. It is a recipe for success that we always struggle to counter. If they can pressure us around the ball and bully our younger mids physically, then we will struggle to stop their inside 50s. If Geelong get easy inside 50’s, we will lose by 30-50 points with ease.
Brisbane
While beating Melbourne was incredibly satisfying as a fan, watching the replay with a level head led me to think about how this game style would stand up to Geelong and – after a quick check of a specific stat – it was plain to see. 1%ers. Geelong – for all their weapons – are not all that good at 1%ers. They need to beat you with physicality around the ball and their fantastic zone defence. When it comes to the gritty side of footy, things like knock-ons, spoils, smothers and shepherds are not Geelong’s strong suit.
While throughout the year we were about 5 a game better than they were, we’ve gone to another level in finals. Across the two finals, we’ve averaged 64 1%ers to Geelong’s 47 across the season (including their final win against Collingwood).
If we can bring the same level of pressure, desperation, fight and belief then we can win against the Cats as we did Richmond and Melbourne. Play fast, and stop the oppositions attack at all cost and this game is absolutely up for grabs.
Final thoughts
In the past 3 weeks we’ve been disgraced, pretenders, lucky, given no chance against the dynasty Dees, plucky, gritty and ultimately victorious. This war has two more battles left to fight and our troops are well and truly up for the challenge.
While a week is a long time in footy, the opportunity the Brisbane Lions have this finals series is a chance at immortality. What happens next is up to the 44 players who take field this Friday.
Go Lions!
