Preview Preliminary Final v Collingwood MCG Friday 21/9/18

[Rodney Dangerfield]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

I don’t buy the free hit stuff. They’re playing for a Grand Final berth against a team that has beaten them comprehensively twice and and have won 22 on the trot at the G. They’ll be shitting themselves.

 

[DontArgue4]

Good write up. I thought this was interesting.

''Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018''

I remember in the wrap up of the r19 game, it was mentioned the Tiges went with 520 meters gained by hand and the Pies went minus 5 meters by hand. That suggests pressure by the Tiges and the Pies having dificulty moving forward in contested situations.

Just looking back at the stats, Pendles had 22 handballs, Sidebottom 21 and Grundy 19, so their 3 best play makers are basically going backwards by hand. To me thats not exactly maximising their quality as gun players but still looks good in the paper next day

This is why stats can mean fk all

 

[TiggerMan22]

Pies can win it, but it will take one out of the box from them while we waste lots of opportunities/kick inaccurately.
Their last 3 games they score 76, 70 and 69. We have scores less than 76 points 1 time this year against Port in Adelaide without Dusty.

 

[roacheee]

Good read this Herald Sun.Very good footy brain Mick.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Friday night’s preliminary final between the Pies and Tigers and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

WHAT TO EXPECT

RICHMOND
An urgent and fresh team. The Tigers know they will be hunted and physically challenged from the get-go, but rest assured they will be prepared for an ambush. Damien Hardwickhas his side playing to a system that is difficult to conquer. They have mastered the “turnover game”, thanks to a highly organised system with COMPLETE buy-in from the players. The Tigers are ranked No. 1 for creating turnovers. They are busy and alert around the contest, and set up the ground to challenge opposition ball use. They cover exits and take away opposition leading lanes, due to trust and connectivity. The key add-on is what they do post-turnover. Richmond is ranked No. 1 for percentage of score from turnovers and points from turnovers. Now that’s a team bound for a Grand Final.

COLLINGWOOD
A high volume game … the Pies just know how to win the footy. They love the contest and work the other side of the ball as their pressure indicates. Because of Brodie Grundy’s influence, Collingwood is a very good clearance team, and this could challenge the Tigers. This also offers up a conundrum for Nathan Buckley. Does he add to this strength by rolling up a half-forward as an extra around stoppages and bank on chaining the ball out by hands and running at the Tigers defence before they launch a deep entry? Or do they keep six forwards at home in front of the ball, in case they panic kick out of a stoppage, so they don’t kick to an outnumber. That cannot happen as it would allow the Tigers to get their turnover game rolling.

RICHMOND
THE KEY

Back their system. The Tigers won’t alter their game style. Why should they? You will see a team that will look to kick long, handball often to involve their teammates, but more importantly to gain metres with their handball and get after the loose-ball at ground level. Sounds simple, doesn’t it! It’s predictable and they are predictable to each other. Now that’s a TEAM. They are a high-territory side. Room for improvement comes in their contested possessions. They are ranked 15th this year but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT.

THE THEME

Believe in the brand. It stands up. Win the territory battle and get the game played on their terms in their forward half of the ground. This sums up the Tigers in a nutshell. When they get that right, it provides the opportunity to set up their defensive structure. They know if this happens it stifles opposition ball movement. In Round 19, which is relevant as it wasn’t too long ago, Collingwood appeared spooked as they looked to go forward but had nowhere to go. The Pies had 42 opportunities to move the ball from D50 to I50, and they could only do it three times. That’s 7%, well below the AFL average of 20%. Extraordinary! Defence before attack — not a bad philosophy in a big game.

THE CHALLENGE

Keep Collingwood’s playmakers in check. The Magpies are a high volume team and some of their players are more than capable of getting a lot of the footy. This was the case in Round 19 when Collingwood had five players with 22+ disposals. Richmond had zero. Steele Sidebottom had 38, Scott Pendlebury 37, Tom Phillips 33, Taylor Adams 30 and Brodie Grundy 23. The saving grace for the Tigers was that some key Magpies butchered the ball. Sidebottom went at 35% by foot, Pendlebury 40% and Adams 42%. Those players are better than that. It won’t happen again. With the addition of Adam Treloar, who is another accumulator, the challenge for the Tigers is to dry up the Pies’ ball winners. They can’t rely on them to poorly execute. If the Collingwood stars have those numbers again, coupled with better ball use, Richmond’s defensive structure will be seriously challenged.

COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY

Get the game played in their own half of the ground. You CANNOT lose the territory game against the Tigers and expect to win. If you do, your conversion on goal must be through the roof. Collingwood will back themselves in and around the stoppages to win enough clearances. It is what happens post-clearance that holds the key. Effective ball use and decision-making is critical when going forward. Both must hold up to challenge Richmond’s team defence. Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018. In Round 19, they had 200 handballs but gained -20 metres. It was Richmond’s system that challenged Collingwood, NOT its PRESSURE. It’s a bit like saying our first kick after chaining out through hands MUST hit a teammate. It eases the pressure and puts it back on the opposition. Getting field position is critical.

THE THEME

Low-ball entries. Everyone applauds Richmond’s back six — and rightfully so. The Tigers help each other out extremely well. Since Round 20, Richmond ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their defensive 50 (backs versus opposition forwards). The problem is that across the season Collingwood ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their forward 50 (forwards versus opposition backs). In Round 19, the Pies broke even in this area, which is a positive, and it gives an intention as to where they want the ball to be — on the ground. Do grubby goals ring a bell? Collingwood must keep high-ball entries to a minimum due to the aerial strength of Alex Rance, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin.

THE CHALLENGE

Composure with the ball. Without it, the Pies don’t stand a chance. Collingwood will get ample opportunity to challenge the Tigers when in offence. The best players see the game unfold before it does. That’s why Pendlebury and Sidebottom are so important in this game. They must not only win their own ball but be given the ball at EVERY opportunity. Lazy kicks out of defensive 50 (for example, a few Jeremy Howe ones against GWS) will be punished against a team like Richmond. The Pies will get at least 75 to 80 opportunities to transition the ball from their back half of the ground to their forward 50. It will come back to their poise, composure, decision-making, and execution of the ball if they are to challenge Richmond’s defensive set up. If that fails, it’s season over.

MAGNET BOARD
IF I WERE RICHMOND … I would entertain using Alex Rance as the deepest defender in every instance. David Astbury will go to Mason Cox, but as we know, the Magpies will rotate Cox, Jordan De Goey, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Brody Mihocek as their deepest forward during stages of the game. I’d still keep Rance deep, regardless. When Cox goes to the square, Astbury can hand over to Rance, and he can go to Mihocek. It’s imperative to back your best defenders in a variety of roles and the Tigers are best suited with Rance deep. That allows Vlastuin, Grimes, Bachar Houli, Jayden Short and Nathan Broad to maintain their defensive structure. Damien Hardwick gave a hint after the win over the Hawks that Brandon Ellis is still a chance to come back into the team, but I would be leaving the side unchanged.

IF I WERE COLLINGWOOD … I would seriously entertain bringing in Darcy Moore to play on Jack Riewoldt, which in turn would force my hand in omitting Chris Mayne. That’s tough, I know, but you have to make hard calls to win finals. James Aish would then take over Mayne’s role between the arcs. That would allow Tyson Goldsack to play on Josh Caddy and free Jeremy Howe up to be the intercept player to win the ball back in the air. I would eyeball Levi Greenwood and challenge him to play on Richmond’s most influential player, Dustin Martin. Dusty MUST be stopped when on ball at centre bounce and his possessions between the arcs MUST be minimised. He is too creative to let roam unattended. The challenge for Greenwood is when Martin plays as the deepest forward. In Round 19, Greenwood tagged Martin for 51 minutes and kept him to 6 disposals. That’s a massive win. The problem was when Martin pushed forward, he kicked 2 goals.

PREDICTION: Richmond by 22


This part was interesting "They are ranked 15th this year for contested possessions but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT."

executive summary, business as usual, tiges by 22 unless pies pull something out of their arse

 

[TigermanM2]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

I am buoyed by the fact that this is virtually the same team that had all the pressure of facing a 4th consecutive finals loss last year against Geelong.

Strong and Bold

 

[Tiger Toffee]

I can't quite see how pies are gonna magically DRAMATICALLY improve their footskills in 6 days....

Both Pies/GWS footskills were woeful in the semi....and GWS pressure was nothing to write home about...

I dont know how the pies are going to score more goals than they have in their last 3 outings....11, 10 and 9

 

[roacheee]

anyone have the quote that each year we beat carlton by 26 pts we've won the grand final? be nice to keep the streak going

 

[Richo is God]

I'm stressin out already. Will be a long week

 

[HTT]

anyone have the quote that each year we beat carlton by 26 pts we've won the grand final? be nice to keep the streak going

It’s false. We did it in 1919, 1928, 1973, 2017 and 2018. Have made the GF every year until now though, so that’s a good sign.

Every time we’ve beaten Collingwood by 81 though, we’ve won the flag. Wouldn’t mind keeping that one up.

 

[jesterx]

it's going to be a loooong week

 

[Bazzar]

We've scored under 80 pts twice this year (losses to the power and giants) and the Pies a whopping 11 times (including 4 out of the last 6 games)
Will they have the fire power to to get over the line?

 

[RobsJourney]

What is wrong with you? You're just like Jolest, both negative. Just relax, we've got this

Just nervous man!

 

[Daffytrain]

Someone early in the thread made a bloody good call thats giving me more confidence the more I think about it.

How are they going to stop us having 30 odd scoring shots? We just generate so many opportunities with our manic movement and pressure. Arguably, we don't convert enough, but I think it's because we get it in so quickly a lot of it ends up rushed or spoiled through.

Sometimes I don't even realise during the game how dominant we are in that area, because I sit there focusing on the missed shots.

Gives me lots of confidence that even with the Pies playing well and winning, they are not doing this anywhere near as well as us.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Good article.

He's been a breath of fresh air in the media.

A very good football brain, outside factors have let him down.

 

[RFCGloryJC]

Balme will control and minimise media exposure.
De Goey has a sore ankle and Sier is sore.
Astonished to read Melbourne fans are purchasing tickets but not attending in Perth to reduce cheering by local fans.

 

[Tigerpagz]

Balme will control and minimise media exposure.
De Goey has a sore ankle and Sier is sore.
Astonished to read Melbourne fans are purchasing tickets but not attending in Perth to reduce cheering by local fans.

Huh?....
What, to leave the stadium half empty to minimise the crowd?

 

[Nobby]

I can't quite see how pies are gonna magically DRAMATICALLY improve their footskills in 6 days....

Both Pies/GWS footskills were woeful in the semi....and GWS pressure was nothing to write home about...

Not against our pressure as well!!

 

[Daffytrain]

Balme will control and minimise media exposure.
De Goey has a sore ankle and Sier is sore.
Astonished to read Melbourne fans are purchasing tickets but not attending in Perth to reduce cheering by local fans.

I'm pretty sure that's just something some nuffie posted in a suppporter group which was picked up (like all good nuffs) by Nuffies on AFL Pages on Facebook and some person masquerading as a "journalist" picked it up and ran with it.

That and I think Neil Mitchell was trolling WA ppl with it on 3AW.

 

[RFCGloryJC]

I hope it is a fraudulent report.
Certainly a bizarre story on Channel 9.
If seats are left empty the WC fans would cheer regardless.

 

[mad_tiggy911]

We're unbeatable.

 

[Daffytrain]

Did Slobbo just have a crack at our club on 360?

 

[mad_tiggy911]

Did Slobbo just have a crack at our club on 360?

What did he say?

 

[_RT_]

Dusty with no legs would still kick 5 against Carlton

 

[tigernsw]

Pendles is so arrogant. Never says anything good about Richmond even when we flog them.
He's teeth are loose and he's playing Richmond ha ha ha. It's gonna be ferocious. He's gonna end up like all the Pies fans and be toofless

 

[TigerTime_89]

Did Slobbo just have a crack at our club on 360?

Alcoholic poisoning is doing things to him.

If you do have an alcoholic problem, please visit and ring these following organisations for help...
https://drinkwise.org.au/drinking-and-you/support-services/#
https://www.lifeline.org.au or call (13 11 14)