Preview Preliminary Final v Collingwood MCG Friday 21/9/18

[Hoos]

Play and Fit are 2 different things.
We all know Dusty will play but we want him at 100% and not at 50%

If he was at 50% He wouldn't be playing.

 

[RobsJourney]

I know what sure meant when I went to school.
Please don’t tell me it’s changed I didn’t get the memo.
Everyone should just relax.

Haha I know watcha mean.

But he dodged the knee question constantly. But did keep saying Dusty will definitely play and he'd nearly put his house on it.

He finally just sort of gave in and said okay, no problem with the knee.

Then he finished with "I'm sure he'll play"

Went from "he will definitely" play to "I'm sure he'll play."

It just makes me think Balme is up to his old tricks and isn't sure, like the rest of us. Anyway, we still win.

 

[TigermanM2]

Play and Fit are 2 different things.
We all know Dusty will play but we want him at 100% and not at 50%

Realistically you wouldn't find many at 100% this time of the year. Some just carry it better than others during games.

 

[Roksman]

Never thought I'd see the day when we are borderline forensically analysing "sure" and "definitely".

I know finals are stressful but chill the **** out lads!

Enjoy the ride, otherwise, what's the point?

Dusty will play.

 

[French Tiger]

I'm sure David King will give his take on it "On The Couch" tonight , well his version from the guy who called him


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[biaseddustyfan]

how would david king know what injury dusty has?

more than likely he just asked some drunk bloke down the crown what he thinks is up with dusty and that's his sauce

 

[Michaels]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

 

[Tforce]

Haha I know watcha mean.

But he dodged the knee question constantly. But did keep saying Dusty will definitely play and he'd nearly put his house on it.

He finally just sort of gave in and said okay, no problem with the knee.

Then he finished with "I'm sure he'll play"

Went from "he will definitely" play to "I'm sure he'll play."

It just makes me think Balme is up to his old tricks and isn't sure, like the rest of us. Anyway, we still win.

What is wrong with you? You're just like Jolest, both negative. Just relax, we've got this

 

[DontArgue4]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

I feel the same, but thats me every week

and almost every week the boys prove me wrong

i think we just need to trust them

 

[EasternTiger]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

Considering we were supposed to suffer the mother of all Premiership hangovers, we have 'free hit' our way into a Prelim whilst mostly cruising in 2nd gear.

The pressure and expectation on Collingwood is palpable. If they get the Colliwobbles again, it may set them back decades.

 

[Makeshft_Mauler]

While I strongly believe we will be able to apply a huge amount of pressure over 4 quarters which GWS failed to do, my biggest concern is that for Collingwood this is basically a free hit for them.

I know there is a GF spot on the line but in a warped way they also have nothing to lose, the pressure is all on us to perform at the level we should.


although having said that, that same theory could have been applied to most of our games this year.

Free hits happen in the first week of finals, when the granny is still 3 odd weeks away

Not in a prelim.

Collingwood will be devastated if they lose (as will we)

 

[biaseddustyfan]

oppos cheering dusty's potential injury while saying we are the worst fans in the league

 

[Michaels]

Considering we were supposed to suffer the mother of all Premiership hangovers, we have 'free hit' our way into a Prelim whilst mostly cruising in 2nd gear.

The pressure and expectation on Collingwood is palpable. If they get the Colliwobbles again, it may set them back decades.

that would be great to see

 

[peternorth]

Considering Dusty has been average steadily increasing to above average, to close to peak form at seasons end, we've done well with him playing within himself. Should be ok.

 

[db26]

No free hit for anyone of the remaining 4 sides.GF so hard to make or win who knows if you make the top 8 next year or top 4 things can change instantly.Got to make the most of it in that position simple as that.

 

[db26]

Good read this Herald Sun.Very good footy brain Mick.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Friday night’s preliminary final between the Pies and Tigers and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

WHAT TO EXPECT

RICHMOND
An urgent and fresh team. The Tigers know they will be hunted and physically challenged from the get-go, but rest assured they will be prepared for an ambush. Damien Hardwickhas his side playing to a system that is difficult to conquer. They have mastered the “turnover game”, thanks to a highly organised system with COMPLETE buy-in from the players. The Tigers are ranked No. 1 for creating turnovers. They are busy and alert around the contest, and set up the ground to challenge opposition ball use. They cover exits and take away opposition leading lanes, due to trust and connectivity. The key add-on is what they do post-turnover. Richmond is ranked No. 1 for percentage of score from turnovers and points from turnovers. Now that’s a team bound for a Grand Final.

COLLINGWOOD
A high volume game … the Pies just know how to win the footy. They love the contest and work the other side of the ball as their pressure indicates. Because of Brodie Grundy’s influence, Collingwood is a very good clearance team, and this could challenge the Tigers. This also offers up a conundrum for Nathan Buckley. Does he add to this strength by rolling up a half-forward as an extra around stoppages and bank on chaining the ball out by hands and running at the Tigers defence before they launch a deep entry? Or do they keep six forwards at home in front of the ball, in case they panic kick out of a stoppage, so they don’t kick to an outnumber. That cannot happen as it would allow the Tigers to get their turnover game rolling.

RICHMOND
THE KEY

Back their system. The Tigers won’t alter their game style. Why should they? You will see a team that will look to kick long, handball often to involve their teammates, but more importantly to gain metres with their handball and get after the loose-ball at ground level. Sounds simple, doesn’t it! It’s predictable and they are predictable to each other. Now that’s a TEAM. They are a high-territory side. Room for improvement comes in their contested possessions. They are ranked 15th this year but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT.

THE THEME

Believe in the brand. It stands up. Win the territory battle and get the game played on their terms in their forward half of the ground. This sums up the Tigers in a nutshell. When they get that right, it provides the opportunity to set up their defensive structure. They know if this happens it stifles opposition ball movement. In Round 19, which is relevant as it wasn’t too long ago, Collingwood appeared spooked as they looked to go forward but had nowhere to go. The Pies had 42 opportunities to move the ball from D50 to I50, and they could only do it three times. That’s 7%, well below the AFL average of 20%. Extraordinary! Defence before attack — not a bad philosophy in a big game.

THE CHALLENGE

Keep Collingwood’s playmakers in check. The Magpies are a high volume team and some of their players are more than capable of getting a lot of the footy. This was the case in Round 19 when Collingwood had five players with 22+ disposals. Richmond had zero. Steele Sidebottom had 38, Scott Pendlebury 37, Tom Phillips 33, Taylor Adams 30 and Brodie Grundy 23. The saving grace for the Tigers was that some key Magpies butchered the ball. Sidebottom went at 35% by foot, Pendlebury 40% and Adams 42%. Those players are better than that. It won’t happen again. With the addition of Adam Treloar, who is another accumulator, the challenge for the Tigers is to dry up the Pies’ ball winners. They can’t rely on them to poorly execute. If the Collingwood stars have those numbers again, coupled with better ball use, Richmond’s defensive structure will be seriously challenged.

COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY

Get the game played in their own half of the ground. You CANNOT lose the territory game against the Tigers and expect to win. If you do, your conversion on goal must be through the roof. Collingwood will back themselves in and around the stoppages to win enough clearances. It is what happens post-clearance that holds the key. Effective ball use and decision-making is critical when going forward. Both must hold up to challenge Richmond’s team defence. Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018. In Round 19, they had 200 handballs but gained -20 metres. It was Richmond’s system that challenged Collingwood, NOT its PRESSURE. It’s a bit like saying our first kick after chaining out through hands MUST hit a teammate. It eases the pressure and puts it back on the opposition. Getting field position is critical.

THE THEME

Low-ball entries. Everyone applauds Richmond’s back six — and rightfully so. The Tigers help each other out extremely well. Since Round 20, Richmond ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their defensive 50 (backs versus opposition forwards). The problem is that across the season Collingwood ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their forward 50 (forwards versus opposition backs). In Round 19, the Pies broke even in this area, which is a positive, and it gives an intention as to where they want the ball to be — on the ground. Do grubby goals ring a bell? Collingwood must keep high-ball entries to a minimum due to the aerial strength of Alex Rance, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin.

THE CHALLENGE

Composure with the ball. Without it, the Pies don’t stand a chance. Collingwood will get ample opportunity to challenge the Tigers when in offence. The best players see the game unfold before it does. That’s why Pendlebury and Sidebottom are so important in this game. They must not only win their own ball but be given the ball at EVERY opportunity. Lazy kicks out of defensive 50 (for example, a few Jeremy Howe ones against GWS) will be punished against a team like Richmond. The Pies will get at least 75 to 80 opportunities to transition the ball from their back half of the ground to their forward 50. It will come back to their poise, composure, decision-making, and execution of the ball if they are to challenge Richmond’s defensive set up. If that fails, it’s season over.

MAGNET BOARD
IF I WERE RICHMOND … I would entertain using Alex Rance as the deepest defender in every instance. David Astbury will go to Mason Cox, but as we know, the Magpies will rotate Cox, Jordan De Goey, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Brody Mihocek as their deepest forward during stages of the game. I’d still keep Rance deep, regardless. When Cox goes to the square, Astbury can hand over to Rance, and he can go to Mihocek. It’s imperative to back your best defenders in a variety of roles and the Tigers are best suited with Rance deep. That allows Vlastuin, Grimes, Bachar Houli, Jayden Short and Nathan Broad to maintain their defensive structure. Damien Hardwick gave a hint after the win over the Hawks that Brandon Ellis is still a chance to come back into the team, but I would be leaving the side unchanged.

IF I WERE COLLINGWOOD … I would seriously entertain bringing in Darcy Moore to play on Jack Riewoldt, which in turn would force my hand in omitting Chris Mayne. That’s tough, I know, but you have to make hard calls to win finals. James Aish would then take over Mayne’s role between the arcs. That would allow Tyson Goldsack to play on Josh Caddy and free Jeremy Howe up to be the intercept player to win the ball back in the air. I would eyeball Levi Greenwood and challenge him to play on Richmond’s most influential player, Dustin Martin. Dusty MUST be stopped when on ball at centre bounce and his possessions between the arcs MUST be minimised. He is too creative to let roam unattended. The challenge for Greenwood is when Martin plays as the deepest forward. In Round 19, Greenwood tagged Martin for 51 minutes and kept him to 6 disposals. That’s a massive win. The problem was when Martin pushed forward, he kicked 2 goals.

PREDICTION: Richmond by 22


This part was interesting "They are ranked 15th this year for contested possessions but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT."

 

[CaptchaProofBot]

I can't quite see how pies are gonna magically DRAMATICALLY improve their footskills in 6 days....

Both Pies/GWS footskills were woeful in the semi....and GWS pressure was nothing to write home about...

 

[EasternTiger]

The Pies are like a beat up old NASCAR. Leaking oil, dented panels, blown head gasket, and a stuck throttle.

We are FORMULA 1.

 

[Bazzar]

Play and Fit are 2 different things.
We all know Dusty will play but we want him at 100% and not at 50%

A 50% Dusty in the goal square would still be a handful for the Pies.

 

[DontArgue4]

afl.com tipping us by 32

confirmed loss

 

[Maroo]

The Pies had 42 opportunities to move the ball from D50 to I50, and they could only do it three times. That’s 7%, well below the AFL average of 20%.

This is incredible!

 

[Roksman]

Good read this Herald Sun.Very good footy brain Mick.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Friday night’s preliminary final between the Pies and Tigers and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

WHAT TO EXPECT

RICHMOND
An urgent and fresh team. The Tigers know they will be hunted and physically challenged from the get-go, but rest assured they will be prepared for an ambush. Damien Hardwickhas his side playing to a system that is difficult to conquer. They have mastered the “turnover game”, thanks to a highly organised system with COMPLETE buy-in from the players. The Tigers are ranked No. 1 for creating turnovers. They are busy and alert around the contest, and set up the ground to challenge opposition ball use. They cover exits and take away opposition leading lanes, due to trust and connectivity. The key add-on is what they do post-turnover. Richmond is ranked No. 1 for percentage of score from turnovers and points from turnovers. Now that’s a team bound for a Grand Final.

COLLINGWOOD
A high volume game … the Pies just know how to win the footy. They love the contest and work the other side of the ball as their pressure indicates. Because of Brodie Grundy’s influence, Collingwood is a very good clearance team, and this could challenge the Tigers. This also offers up a conundrum for Nathan Buckley. Does he add to this strength by rolling up a half-forward as an extra around stoppages and bank on chaining the ball out by hands and running at the Tigers defence before they launch a deep entry? Or do they keep six forwards at home in front of the ball, in case they panic kick out of a stoppage, so they don’t kick to an outnumber. That cannot happen as it would allow the Tigers to get their turnover game rolling.

RICHMOND
THE KEY

Back their system. The Tigers won’t alter their game style. Why should they? You will see a team that will look to kick long, handball often to involve their teammates, but more importantly to gain metres with their handball and get after the loose-ball at ground level. Sounds simple, doesn’t it! It’s predictable and they are predictable to each other. Now that’s a TEAM. They are a high-territory side. Room for improvement comes in their contested possessions. They are ranked 15th this year but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT.

THE THEME

Believe in the brand. It stands up. Win the territory battle and get the game played on their terms in their forward half of the ground. This sums up the Tigers in a nutshell. When they get that right, it provides the opportunity to set up their defensive structure. They know if this happens it stifles opposition ball movement. In Round 19, which is relevant as it wasn’t too long ago, Collingwood appeared spooked as they looked to go forward but had nowhere to go. The Pies had 42 opportunities to move the ball from D50 to I50, and they could only do it three times. That’s 7%, well below the AFL average of 20%. Extraordinary! Defence before attack — not a bad philosophy in a big game.

THE CHALLENGE

Keep Collingwood’s playmakers in check. The Magpies are a high volume team and some of their players are more than capable of getting a lot of the footy. This was the case in Round 19 when Collingwood had five players with 22+ disposals. Richmond had zero. Steele Sidebottom had 38, Scott Pendlebury 37, Tom Phillips 33, Taylor Adams 30 and Brodie Grundy 23. The saving grace for the Tigers was that some key Magpies butchered the ball. Sidebottom went at 35% by foot, Pendlebury 40% and Adams 42%. Those players are better than that. It won’t happen again. With the addition of Adam Treloar, who is another accumulator, the challenge for the Tigers is to dry up the Pies’ ball winners. They can’t rely on them to poorly execute. If the Collingwood stars have those numbers again, coupled with better ball use, Richmond’s defensive structure will be seriously challenged.

COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY

Get the game played in their own half of the ground. You CANNOT lose the territory game against the Tigers and expect to win. If you do, your conversion on goal must be through the roof. Collingwood will back themselves in and around the stoppages to win enough clearances. It is what happens post-clearance that holds the key. Effective ball use and decision-making is critical when going forward. Both must hold up to challenge Richmond’s team defence. Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018. In Round 19, they had 200 handballs but gained -20 metres. It was Richmond’s system that challenged Collingwood, NOT its PRESSURE. It’s a bit like saying our first kick after chaining out through hands MUST hit a teammate. It eases the pressure and puts it back on the opposition. Getting field position is critical.

THE THEME

Low-ball entries. Everyone applauds Richmond’s back six — and rightfully so. The Tigers help each other out extremely well. Since Round 20, Richmond ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their defensive 50 (backs versus opposition forwards). The problem is that across the season Collingwood ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their forward 50 (forwards versus opposition backs). In Round 19, the Pies broke even in this area, which is a positive, and it gives an intention as to where they want the ball to be — on the ground. Do grubby goals ring a bell? Collingwood must keep high-ball entries to a minimum due to the aerial strength of Alex Rance, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin.

THE CHALLENGE

Composure with the ball. Without it, the Pies don’t stand a chance. Collingwood will get ample opportunity to challenge the Tigers when in offence. The best players see the game unfold before it does. That’s why Pendlebury and Sidebottom are so important in this game. They must not only win their own ball but be given the ball at EVERY opportunity. Lazy kicks out of defensive 50 (for example, a few Jeremy Howe ones against GWS) will be punished against a team like Richmond. The Pies will get at least 75 to 80 opportunities to transition the ball from their back half of the ground to their forward 50. It will come back to their poise, composure, decision-making, and execution of the ball if they are to challenge Richmond’s defensive set up. If that fails, it’s season over.

MAGNET BOARD
IF I WERE RICHMOND … I would entertain using Alex Rance as the deepest defender in every instance. David Astbury will go to Mason Cox, but as we know, the Magpies will rotate Cox, Jordan De Goey, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Brody Mihocek as their deepest forward during stages of the game. I’d still keep Rance deep, regardless. When Cox goes to the square, Astbury can hand over to Rance, and he can go to Mihocek. It’s imperative to back your best defenders in a variety of roles and the Tigers are best suited with Rance deep. That allows Vlastuin, Grimes, Bachar Houli, Jayden Short and Nathan Broad to maintain their defensive structure. Damien Hardwick gave a hint after the win over the Hawks that Brandon Ellis is still a chance to come back into the team, but I would be leaving the side unchanged.

IF I WERE COLLINGWOOD … I would seriously entertain bringing in Darcy Moore to play on Jack Riewoldt, which in turn would force my hand in omitting Chris Mayne. That’s tough, I know, but you have to make hard calls to win finals. James Aish would then take over Mayne’s role between the arcs. That would allow Tyson Goldsack to play on Josh Caddy and free Jeremy Howe up to be the intercept player to win the ball back in the air. I would eyeball Levi Greenwood and challenge him to play on Richmond’s most influential player, Dustin Martin. Dusty MUST be stopped when on ball at centre bounce and his possessions between the arcs MUST be minimised. He is too creative to let roam unattended. The challenge for Greenwood is when Martin plays as the deepest forward. In Round 19, Greenwood tagged Martin for 51 minutes and kept him to 6 disposals. That’s a massive win. The problem was when Martin pushed forward, he kicked 2 goals.

PREDICTION: Richmond by 22


This part was interesting "They are ranked 15th this year for contested possessions but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT."

Good article.

He's been a breath of fresh air in the media.

 

[TJASTA]

afl.com tipping us by 32

confirmed loss

they tip us against the dawks
confirmed win

 

[Bazzar]

Good read this Herald Sun.Very good footy brain Mick.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Friday night’s preliminary final between the Pies and Tigers and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

WHAT TO EXPECT

RICHMOND
An urgent and fresh team. The Tigers know they will be hunted and physically challenged from the get-go, but rest assured they will be prepared for an ambush. Damien Hardwickhas his side playing to a system that is difficult to conquer. They have mastered the “turnover game”, thanks to a highly organised system with COMPLETE buy-in from the players. The Tigers are ranked No. 1 for creating turnovers. They are busy and alert around the contest, and set up the ground to challenge opposition ball use. They cover exits and take away opposition leading lanes, due to trust and connectivity. The key add-on is what they do post-turnover. Richmond is ranked No. 1 for percentage of score from turnovers and points from turnovers. Now that’s a team bound for a Grand Final.

COLLINGWOOD
A high volume game … the Pies just know how to win the footy. They love the contest and work the other side of the ball as their pressure indicates. Because of Brodie Grundy’s influence, Collingwood is a very good clearance team, and this could challenge the Tigers. This also offers up a conundrum for Nathan Buckley. Does he add to this strength by rolling up a half-forward as an extra around stoppages and bank on chaining the ball out by hands and running at the Tigers defence before they launch a deep entry? Or do they keep six forwards at home in front of the ball, in case they panic kick out of a stoppage, so they don’t kick to an outnumber. That cannot happen as it would allow the Tigers to get their turnover game rolling.

RICHMOND
THE KEY

Back their system. The Tigers won’t alter their game style. Why should they? You will see a team that will look to kick long, handball often to involve their teammates, but more importantly to gain metres with their handball and get after the loose-ball at ground level. Sounds simple, doesn’t it! It’s predictable and they are predictable to each other. Now that’s a TEAM. They are a high-territory side. Room for improvement comes in their contested possessions. They are ranked 15th this year but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT.

THE THEME

Believe in the brand. It stands up. Win the territory battle and get the game played on their terms in their forward half of the ground. This sums up the Tigers in a nutshell. When they get that right, it provides the opportunity to set up their defensive structure. They know if this happens it stifles opposition ball movement. In Round 19, which is relevant as it wasn’t too long ago, Collingwood appeared spooked as they looked to go forward but had nowhere to go. The Pies had 42 opportunities to move the ball from D50 to I50, and they could only do it three times. That’s 7%, well below the AFL average of 20%. Extraordinary! Defence before attack — not a bad philosophy in a big game.

THE CHALLENGE

Keep Collingwood’s playmakers in check. The Magpies are a high volume team and some of their players are more than capable of getting a lot of the footy. This was the case in Round 19 when Collingwood had five players with 22+ disposals. Richmond had zero. Steele Sidebottom had 38, Scott Pendlebury 37, Tom Phillips 33, Taylor Adams 30 and Brodie Grundy 23. The saving grace for the Tigers was that some key Magpies butchered the ball. Sidebottom went at 35% by foot, Pendlebury 40% and Adams 42%. Those players are better than that. It won’t happen again. With the addition of Adam Treloar, who is another accumulator, the challenge for the Tigers is to dry up the Pies’ ball winners. They can’t rely on them to poorly execute. If the Collingwood stars have those numbers again, coupled with better ball use, Richmond’s defensive structure will be seriously challenged.

COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY

Get the game played in their own half of the ground. You CANNOT lose the territory game against the Tigers and expect to win. If you do, your conversion on goal must be through the roof. Collingwood will back themselves in and around the stoppages to win enough clearances. It is what happens post-clearance that holds the key. Effective ball use and decision-making is critical when going forward. Both must hold up to challenge Richmond’s team defence. Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018. In Round 19, they had 200 handballs but gained -20 metres. It was Richmond’s system that challenged Collingwood, NOT its PRESSURE. It’s a bit like saying our first kick after chaining out through hands MUST hit a teammate. It eases the pressure and puts it back on the opposition. Getting field position is critical.

THE THEME

Low-ball entries. Everyone applauds Richmond’s back six — and rightfully so. The Tigers help each other out extremely well. Since Round 20, Richmond ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their defensive 50 (backs versus opposition forwards). The problem is that across the season Collingwood ranks 18th for ground-ball differential in their forward 50 (forwards versus opposition backs). In Round 19, the Pies broke even in this area, which is a positive, and it gives an intention as to where they want the ball to be — on the ground. Do grubby goals ring a bell? Collingwood must keep high-ball entries to a minimum due to the aerial strength of Alex Rance, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin.

THE CHALLENGE

Composure with the ball. Without it, the Pies don’t stand a chance. Collingwood will get ample opportunity to challenge the Tigers when in offence. The best players see the game unfold before it does. That’s why Pendlebury and Sidebottom are so important in this game. They must not only win their own ball but be given the ball at EVERY opportunity. Lazy kicks out of defensive 50 (for example, a few Jeremy Howe ones against GWS) will be punished against a team like Richmond. The Pies will get at least 75 to 80 opportunities to transition the ball from their back half of the ground to their forward 50. It will come back to their poise, composure, decision-making, and execution of the ball if they are to challenge Richmond’s defensive set up. If that fails, it’s season over.

MAGNET BOARD
IF I WERE RICHMOND … I would entertain using Alex Rance as the deepest defender in every instance. David Astbury will go to Mason Cox, but as we know, the Magpies will rotate Cox, Jordan De Goey, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Brody Mihocek as their deepest forward during stages of the game. I’d still keep Rance deep, regardless. When Cox goes to the square, Astbury can hand over to Rance, and he can go to Mihocek. It’s imperative to back your best defenders in a variety of roles and the Tigers are best suited with Rance deep. That allows Vlastuin, Grimes, Bachar Houli, Jayden Short and Nathan Broad to maintain their defensive structure. Damien Hardwick gave a hint after the win over the Hawks that Brandon Ellis is still a chance to come back into the team, but I would be leaving the side unchanged.

IF I WERE COLLINGWOOD … I would seriously entertain bringing in Darcy Moore to play on Jack Riewoldt, which in turn would force my hand in omitting Chris Mayne. That’s tough, I know, but you have to make hard calls to win finals. James Aish would then take over Mayne’s role between the arcs. That would allow Tyson Goldsack to play on Josh Caddy and free Jeremy Howe up to be the intercept player to win the ball back in the air. I would eyeball Levi Greenwood and challenge him to play on Richmond’s most influential player, Dustin Martin. Dusty MUST be stopped when on ball at centre bounce and his possessions between the arcs MUST be minimised. He is too creative to let roam unattended. The challenge for Greenwood is when Martin plays as the deepest forward. In Round 19, Greenwood tagged Martin for 51 minutes and kept him to 6 disposals. That’s a massive win. The problem was when Martin pushed forward, he kicked 2 goals.

PREDICTION: Richmond by 22


This part was interesting "They are ranked 15th this year for contested possessions but when the stakes increase, don’t be surprised if we see a shift in this area. Don’t forget the Tigers were +30 in last year’s Grand Final. THEY CAN DO IT."

Good write up. I thought this was interesting.

''Collingwood like to flick the ball around by hand as evidenced by handballing more against Richmond in both games this year — more than in any other match in 2018''

I remember in the wrap up of the r19 game, it was mentioned the Tiges went with 520 meters gained by hand and the Pies went minus 5 meters by hand. That suggests pressure by the Tiges and the Pies having dificulty moving forward in contested situations.

Just looking back at the stats, Pendles had 22 handballs, Sidebottom 21 and Grundy 19, so their 3 best play makers are basically going backwards by hand. To me thats not exactly maximising their quality as gun players but still looks good in the paper next day

 

[db26]

Good article.

He's been a breath of fresh air in the media.

No doubt.His great on twitter to real in depth preview.