Prospects for the Aussie dollar.

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Didaics

Didaics

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Im wondering if there are any expert predictions out there concerning the value of our dollar against the US buck. Im holidaying there and since I booked it has dropped about 10c to 88. Will it only go down and should I look into buying some travellers cheques? Some have told me it is expected to go up.
 
Speculation of an interest rate cut and lower commodity prices has caused people to jump off the Aussie dollar. It's taken a massive beating already and thinking it might steady and there may be a slight correction upwards, but expect it to remain steady around 0.87-0.89.

going to the US in Oct and hoping we have bottoming out and on our way back up... listened to the predictions that it may go to 1.08 next year, should have bought a few thousand when it hit 0.98!
 

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I was at a presentation given by Saul Eslake (ANZ Economist) last Wednesday, and he speculated that the Aussie Dollar would be around 80 cents (USD) by this time next year.

I figure that he probably knows more than most, so its good enough for me.
 
i'm off to the US in October for 6 weeks and I bought 5k when it was about 95c. but my cousin hasn't bought any yet and we're all a bit pissed that it's dropped so much so quickly.

i wish i bought like 30k when it hit its peak because while parity was talked up, there was never any guarantee it would get to say $1.05. but you can safely assume it would before too long get to 90c and 85c.

missed ****ing opportunity :mad:
 
saintsownthedome said:
I was at a presentation given by Saul Eslake (ANZ Economist) last Wednesday, and he speculated that the Aussie Dollar would be around 80 cents (USD) by this time next year.

I figure that he probably knows more than most, so its good enough for me.
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Last year CBA, ANZ and NAB all predicted the AUDUSD would be 80 cents in June this year (it was around 94c). So i wouldn't place any importance on what those arseclowns say. The rise in the AUDUSD over the last few years has been a result of natural market forces. If you buy this currency pair you receive about 500% interest pa, that's a big reason why people are buying it. Another is the international demand (ie. China) for our resources. There's no doubt in my mind that the recent strengthening of the USD has been manufactured. There's clearly been a steady stream of buying from some massive players for the sheer purpose of propping up the dollar.

This seems to have stopped suddenly this week, so there's a good chance that the run is over and we should see the FX market get back to being controlled by natural market forces again.
 
Hot Kidd said:
Why is that? If its value drops will foreign companies will purchase goods in A$ and therefore drive up prices?
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Australia is an exporter of mainly minerals and agricultural commodities. These are usually priced in USD. If the A$ drops and world market prices remain the same, then an extra profit is generated. However, the likelihood is that the drop in the A$ would be because of a drop in those commodity prices in USD. Hence when oil was at USD150, the A$ was at .97c. Now oil has dropped back 20% the A$ has retraced to .86.
 

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Aussie dollar dropped because RBA reduced interest rates and commodity prices have gone down due to fears of slowing demand.

As much as I respect ANZ Chief Economist Saul Eslake my belief is that foreign exchange cannot be predicted and that you should just not even try. Trying to predict the movement of currency is like trying to predict the exact time you will fart after eating a can of baked beans. It's too complex.
 
That being said, every time I get my paycheck I immediately convert about 40 per cent of it into foreign currencies or buy stocks or funds in foreign companies. The Australian dollar is not the only currency in the world and Australian GDP only makes by 2 per cent of world GDP, so I think it's safer to have a global perspective.

The weaker Aussie dollar will make e.g. petrol more expensive because oil is traded using US dollars.
 
nokiacasio said:
As much as I respect ANZ Chief Economist Saul Eslake my belief is that foreign exchange cannot be predicted and that you should just not even try. Trying to predict the movement of currency is like trying to predict the exact time you will fart after eating a can of baked beans. It's too complex.
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One of the best posts i have read on this forum.
 
Down to 70 at the minute and I'm going to the US in around 2-3 weeks. So pissed that I didn't buy when it was around 95+, now my $5000 spending money ends up being around $3500 USD!!

Any chance of it getting to 80 before I leave or should I buy before it drops even further?
 
It's been said many times before, buts it's worth repeating:If ANYONE knew the answer to this, then they wouldn't be working and they'd be basking in billions of dollars, wiping their backsides with dollars on their private island, flow in by their private jet.I remember Harvey Norman (Gerry Norman? or whatever his name is) about 7 years ago. He made a killing, punting on the exchange rate and came out in the paper and lambasted economists saying, "How hard is it to make money, its a piece of cake!!!!". 2 months later, he got burnt twice as hard the other way. Lost some big $. Then came out in the paper and said, "Never Again, I stuffed up".
 
After the rate announcement the AUD dropped 200 pips (2 cents) in a matter of seconds, then over the next 20 minutes it receovered all of it and is now worth more than it was before the announcement came out! hehe...fun times!
 
What the **** is happening? I'm having some goods shipped from Japan and only decided to pay then. Now 1 AU is worth 0.7 Yen, swear it was in the high .8's/low.9's not long ago
 
The Aussie Dollar is at a three year low, and it is very different to see it drop so much in under 3 months, it was peaking at 0.95C US not long ago, you can expect it to go down abit more, but it is predicted by many experts that it will bounce back, just like the share market, now if i told you by teacher from tafe who has a degree in economics told me at the start of the year that there was going to be a large wave in the sharemarket mid year, would you believe me, no-one believed him but himself, took his money out, and came out on top.
You can never be sure what will happen, but what comes down must come up.
 
I'm jinxed. I went to the States in 2001 and it was $0.47.

Went in 2007 and the Chinese Stock Market crashed a couple of days before I was to buy my $$$. It went down quite a bit and I think I bought for about $0.78.

Went in March this year and bought for $0.90. Two days later it went up to $0.95.

Going in 5 weeks and the last I saw it was $0.69 so probably selling for $0.67. You could say I'm fairly pissed off.
 

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Prospects for the Aussie dollar.

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