Preview R11: Changes vs Eagles

[NSolis]

I don't think you need to tell the players that's the goal specifically. You'd always go in to win (and not be proud of losses like the Collingwood game)

But Nicks could certainly be picking the side with a development focus rather than a finals focus now that finals are very unlikely.

And I disagree we could make finals with a strong second half of the year. We have no margin for error and very difficult games. Even if we are 6-1-6 we are virtually no chance when we'll likely need 13 wins to make it. Assuming Sydney beat us twice and we lose to Geelong in Kardinia again that's our margin gone. We'd need to win every other game. Mid table is generous given the actual mid table teams (6-12) mostly sit on double the wins we have

There's a lot of unknowns in half a season of football. I don't think it's probable we'll make finals but I don't think it's 'virtually no chance'. But even if it was I don't think you can write off a season at this stage. Not to belabour the obvious point too much, but what should Adam Kingsley have done last year when GWS was 4-8 after 12 rounds? His side almost made a grand final from that position. Even in our premiership years we had pretty crap starts to both seasons and didn't get back to parity until round 8-10 or so.

I'm happy for them to have a crack at winning every game and maybe take stock of things around the bye. If we are 7-1-6 or 6-1-7 at the bye, finals is a reasonable goal and the team needs to go for it. If we're 5-1-8 after losing to Sydney by 10 goals, time to think about what next year looks like (to a greater degree - obviously this is always a consideration).

That's just my opinion but also in terms of club management I just think it's really unrealistic to imagine there's any alternative. People are talking in here about Nicks emphasising a development focus for future years. Imagine for a second that the Crows are 6-1-6 going into the Sydney game. We're about to host the league leaders, we've got 6 wins and a draw from the last 9 games and have won 3 in a row. What coach is going to see this as a 'drop the seniors and develop youngsters to have a shot at next year' type scenario? They're obviously going to see it as an opportunity to knock off the league leaders at home and make a run for finals, and be hoping that rounds 1-4 were the outlier.

 

[maxlilly]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

Not sure who is the bigger sook, Laird or Nicks

 

[jackster83]

This is so on point for nicks. Rounds 1-4 it was the players fault.

Now it’s the recruiters fault.

Seems to have little capacity for self reflection.

He'll blame the supporters next. Or global warming.

 

[maxlilly]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

I always had the impression Nicks was blaming the recruiters as he only wants to use draft picks for trades now.
Maybe if his development was better, the recruiters would look better

 

[maxlilly]

He'll blame the supporters next. Or global warming.

He might do a Roo and tell the supporters to go and barrick for another team if they don't like what they see

 

[Southerntakeover]

I think the worst result would be totally losing the players by telling them they are no chance to make finals with 13 games left in the season after losing to the premiers at the MCG by a kick. But your views may vary.

I bet West Coasts players are furious that they had that early draft pick last year.

 

[Geoffa32]

Can’t wait to see either Borlase or butts subbed halfway through the third quarter tomorrow because our defence is too tall and slow

Then we’ll kick away for the win in the last due to a more mobile defence

Team balance is all wrong

Is it?

Butts on Waterman
Borlase on Kennedy

Keane in Worrells role of loose man/interceptor playing off Maric.

No different to the set up we have had most of the year and needed against WCE.






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[Geoffa32]

I always had the impression Nicks was blaming the recruiters as he only wants to use draft picks for trades now.
Maybe if his development was better, the recruiters would look better

Can't develop a Hyundai into a Ferrari.....




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[ABAB]

I always had the impression Nicks was blaming the recruiters as he only wants to use draft picks for trades now.
Maybe if his development was better, the recruiters would look better

He wants those who try hard and aren't talented......

 

[SugarShane]

Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required.

Wasn't he sitting with the recruiting team at the draft? Seemed pretty involved in our picks.

 

[dogs105]

Can't develop a Hyundai into a Ferrari.....




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Fool your friends with Hyundai-powered custom

The lengths people will go to to turn a somewhat ordinary vehicle into something that pretends to be so much more always amazes us. Ferrari seems to be a

www.autoblog.com

 

[CrowBloke]

There's a difference between the season being over mathematically, and the season being over practically speaking due to our likelihood of qualifying for finals and the way we're playing.

Our season isn't over mathematically, but given the way we are playing and needing to win 9 or 10 of our last 13 games, practically speaking it's over

The Crows love to live by the mathematical chance because it's the "make the eight and anything can happen" mentality. But really given the way the season has gone so far we should already be looking at how we get better for 2025

+

So Nicks should sit the players down and be like 'alright lads, it's fairly unlikely we make finals from here, so let's just face facts and focus on 2025'? What happens if we win the next 3 games and are 6-1-6 and in say 10th spot or so heading into the Sydney game? Should they still give up from there? At what point do you turn the ship around and focus on finals again?

I understand the logic here of course but I don't think this is a realistic or appropriate time to write the season off at all within the club. This isn't a mathematical chance like North where if they go 13-0 and have a few other things go their way it is possible to make finals. This is a competitive mid table side who can make finals with a good second half of the year.

Obviously if you're an external pundit making a prediction it's a different question, but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

I can see what you both mean; you're not that far apart.

I reckon the players AND Nicks will still be thinking "We can still make the 8. After that, anything can happen".
They have to be thinking that to do their best tomorrow and every game after that until it becomes impossible.

When it becomes impossible, well, still play to win but Nicks would have to be looking ahead at 2025 and seeing what several untried/barely tried players can do. At that 'impossible' point in time, if Nicks sticks with his start-of-year best 25 and keeps playing favorites with Smith, Laird and a few others, then he needs his head read (I'd say he needs that now, but meh).

Could they still make the eight? Yeah, but it's unlikely, at least I don't think so and part of that's based on what Scorpus said.
Chances are they'll finish 9th to 12th.
(I'm not by nature a negative person. My disenchantment and disillusionment have degenerated into pessimism re: the 2024 Crows after:
--- our win-loss record under Nicks
--- Nicks' undeserved 2-year extension (the Club had much better options eg wait until the bye, at least)
--- losing so many close games
--- having so many poor starts
--- rewarding underperforming players and the ridiculous method of expecting change by selecting the same weak players and having the same 'game plan'
--- NO finals since 2017.)

 

[huludicidal]

There's a lot of unknowns in half a season of football. I don't think it's probable we'll make finals but I don't think it's 'virtually no chance'. But even if it was I don't think you can write off a season at this stage. Not to belabour the obvious point too much, but what should Adam Kingsley have done last year when GWS was 4-8 after 12 rounds? His side almost made a grand final from that position. Even in our premiership years we had pretty crap starts to both seasons and didn't get back to parity until round 8-10 or so.

I'm happy for them to have a crack at winning every game and maybe take stock of things around the bye. If we are 7-1-6 or 6-1-7 at the bye, finals is a reasonable goal and the team needs to go for it. If we're 5-1-8 after losing to Sydney by 10 goals, time to think about what next year looks like (to a greater degree - obviously this is always a consideration).

That's just my opinion but also in terms of club management I just think it's really unrealistic to imagine there's any alternative. People are talking in here about Nicks emphasising a development focus for future years. Imagine for a second that the Crows are 6-1-6 going into the Sydney game. We're about to host the league leaders, we've got 6 wins and a draw from the last 9 games and have won 3 in a row. What coach is going to see this as a 'drop the seniors and develop youngsters to have a shot at next year' type scenario? They're obviously going to see it as an opportunity to knock off the league leaders at home and make a run for finals, and be hoping that rounds 1-4 were the outlier.

I don’t disagree with this. What I disagree with is the notion that playing proven failures like Laird, Jones, McHenry and Smith actually gives our team even a slightly better chance of winning than playing the likes of Curtin, Ryan and Dowling in those same positions.

Not hiding Curtin out of position deep in a back pocket and subbing him out twice. Playing him in Brodie Smith’s spot as an attacking half back. Smith has been consistently poor in this role to date. The 7 quarters that Smith didn’t play this year were the best we’ve looked all season. What was the purpose of bringing him back?

Not hiding Dowling on a forward flank for 2 games late in the season. Playing him on Jones’ wing or Laird’s inside role now. Laird and Jones have really cost us in some big moments this year and are consistently not getting it done. The winning play against Carlton took place with Laird anchored to the pine and Berry running rampant as the best player on the ground in the 4th qtr. Why did a slight ankle injury to Berry then return him to nothing but a backup player? Why can’t Berry permanently take Laird’s spot and Dowling be given 3 weeks in Jones’ spot?


I get that sometimes it’s difficult for coaches to pull the trigger on things like this, but we repeatedly see the likes of McRae and C Scott doing it, and their track records speak for themselves.


Jones and McHenry have been nothing short of consistently putrid this year. Finally we’ve pulled the rug from under Ned this week. Jones must surely be next. Smith and Laird seem to be made of Teflon, but without even taking the future into account, I don’t think there’s any evidence whatsoever that the now gets any worse at all by dropping them. If anything, there’s evidence to the contrary.

 

[rocket18]

...... but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

Agreed that is meant to be part of his job but you aren't actually suggesting he does this?

 

[rocket18]

I know it is confusing for the cartel, so I will explain the selection of defenders for the last two weeks.

Against Brisbane we used Curtin as a medium/small defender. Logan Morris, in his second game, kicked two first half goals and Callum Ah Chee also chipped in kicking another two goals on Curtin. Not surprisingly he was subbed off and not selected last week or this week.

Last week Collingwood had one (very) tall forward in Cox/Darcy with De Goey (188 cm) acting as their main focal point. We had no need for another tall defender. The only medium/small defenders that we had available were Bond (has struggled in the SANFL), Hamill and Ryan. I would have been happy to see Ryan get a run but it was a big ask to have him play his first game at the MCG against the reigning premiers, matched up on the 2023 Norm Smith Medallist.

This week the Eagles are playing 3 tall forwards, Darling (191 cm), Waterman (191 cm) and Ryan Maric (196cm). We could use Hinge as an undersized tall defender but we need his rebound from half back. The only available tall defender not playing in the AFL is Borlase who has been solid in his AFL games this year.

The final option was to drop another medium/small defender and retain Hamill.
Michalanney - No Way
Hinge - You have to be joking.
Nankervis - We all love the Nank

That leaves Brodie Smith. He had a poor start to the season when he was unable to play with a bad back. His last two weeks back in the 22 have been much better so he gets the last defender spot.

There you are, it wasn’t that confusing after all.

Thats alot of words to say Smith can't be dropped for any reason.

You and Nicks think Smith is playing well and is part of our future, many don't.

I think the many are right.

 

[Bay62]

McHenry back to the 2nds to work on shape clearly.

Needs to work on running round in circles

Wait, I thought that’s what he already did…

 

[Geoffa32]

The big knock on Nicks IMO is tactical nous.

We see it every week with his "roster" approach to the sub rule.



He, like most AFL coaches, relies on system and shape. The difference between average and good AFL coaches is the ability to adapt the system and shape during the game.

Nicks struggles with this. Hence he is not the coach to take us to the next step.


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[CrowBloke]

I think the worst result would be totally losing the players by telling them they are no chance to make finals with 13 games left in the season after losing to the premiers at the MCG by a kick.

NO Coach would actually do that, not even Nicks who's not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

If anyone only focused on THAT game in isolation, they'd think we're a strong chance but it's not only about that ONE game.

Look at the 0-4 start, and
Nicks' bewildering selections, his favoritism, the ways he rewards mediocrity, and
Nicks' slow, chip-chip defensive emphasis, and
not just the losses, but the way/s we lose, and
we are 3-6-1.
So much has to change before we can win enough games to make the 8 that it seems very remote.

But your views may vary.

What's the problem if they do?

It's ok for people to have varying views. It's ok to discuss, disagree and counter-argue.
The variety and disagreements actually make it interesting. It'd be a boring farce if every post got 100 likes and everybody agreed eg
Can we make the 8? Well, it's p-o-s-s-i-b-l-e, so yes.
Will we make the 8, well, that's where many opinions differ, for many different reasons. I doubt it, strongly, but that doubt is neither right nor wrong; it's just doubt. No harm done.

 

[kirky]

The big knock on Nicks IMO is tactical nous.

We see it every week with his "roster" approach to the sub rule.



He, like most AFL coaches, relies on system and shape. The difference between average and good AFL coaches is the ability to adapt the system and shape during the game.

Nicks struggles with this. Hence he is not the coach to take us to the next step.


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Sorry but you can’t use the word “shape” until someone tells us what it is.

 

[Harris1991]

WTF. Just went to check the SANFL scores and saw Hamill has been dropped. Seriously WTF. Nicks is fast becoming the Joe Biden of the coaching world. Grotesquely incompetent.

 

[kirky]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

Laird for some bizarre reason probably thinks he is the best ever AFC 3 time Malcolm Blight medallist.

 

[kirky]

WTF. Just went to check the SANFL scores and saw Hamill has been dropped. Seriously WTF. Nicks is fast becoming the Joe Biden of the coaching world. Grotesquely incompetent.

We knew that nearly 24 hours ago.

 

[Harris1991]

We knew that nearly 24 hours ago.

Yeah, i've been working.

There is no logic or consistency in Nicks' selections. It's chaotic.

 

[Harris1991]

I bet you McHenry is back in them team within the next 2 to 3 weeks. He's a Nicks favorite so it would have killed his massive ego for being almost forced to drop him due to public opinion.

 

[Geoffa32]

Sorry but you can’t use the word “shape” until someone tells us what it is.

Formation.

Like soccer.

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