Preview R11: Changes vs Eagles

[NSolis]

Comparing the disposal efficiency of a player who played 0 minutes as an inside mid with players who played the majority of the game as inside mids is not really ideal. The entire “disposal efficiency” stat is misleading too as a terrible 20m kick to a contest that gets spoiled out of bounds counts as 100% efficient because it didn’t get marked by an opponent, or go through for a behind, or go out on the full. It’s a junk stat.

If I get a spare couple of hours this weekend I will go back and review, then provide a summary of Chayce’s 15 kicks against Collingwood, including how much pressure he was under / whether the kick was in general play or from a mark / free kick etc. I don’t normally have too much of an issue with Chayce’s quality of disposal or decision making (my issue is usually that he doesn’t get it enough or provide any hurt factor, and I feel he’s much better utilised in defence than on a wing), but felt this was one of the worst games I had seen from him in that regard watching live.

I don't believe this is true. If the kick went 40+ meters this would be true (long to a 50/50 contest) but a short kick has to find a teammate to be efficient (I think). This is why defenders usually have very high kicking efficiency, as they will usually either be chipping to a free teammate or kicking long to a contest. Inside mids have to pinpoint shorter passes in traffic which is much harder, or find the space to go long to a contest.

 

[NSolis]

I wouldn’t say season is over given 3 teams came back from worse positions last year to make finals and go deep, but it’s hard to get as excited about wins until we can start consistently winning those big games that are close. IF we win the next 3 as we should, then beat Sydney, I would be confident of finals again. Lose any of those 4 and that’s season done for me.

Season definitely isn't over, and I think it's particularly bizarre for people to be suggesting Nicks should be acting like the season is over at this point. Predicting we won't make finals is obviously fine (and I agree).

Club is 3-1-6 after an 0-4 start, have mostly played top half of the ladder teams and have three winnable games coming up, with 4 of the next 5 at home. Obviously the team should have eyes on getting to 6-1-6 or 7-1-7 over that period, at which point the season is obviously alive - you absolutely can't write off a team with a 50/50 record.

Now if we lose a couple of games in the next month, at that point we should be looking to 2025. You can't declare the season over now though, people just love to do that on this board. People wrote off the season pretty much every time we lost in the second half of the year in 2023 as well, and we missed finals by a kick.

 

[GreyCrow]

People wrote off the season pretty much every time we lost in the second half of the year in 2023 as well, and we missed finals by a kick.

So we were right

 

[NSolis]

So we were right

No? Unless you also think it was correct for a Carlton fan to say 'season over, can't make finals' at 12-6 in 2022, since they lost their last 4 and finished 9th.

Adelaide's season was very much alive until after the Sydney loss last year.

 

[GreyCrow]

No? Unless you also think it was correct for a Carlton fan to say 'season over, can't make finals' at 12-6 in 2022, since they lost their last 4 and finished 9th.

Adelaide's season was very much alive until after the Sydney loss last year.

And we didnt make it so we were right

 

[Southerntakeover]

The problem isn't that you can't type paragraphs in which you give us wins or in which our winning games is hypothetically possible, it's that we don't actually win the games.

The reason the season is over is that we're in a hole, and the team simply is not good enough.

 

[NSolis]

And we didnt make it so we were right

As I said, there's a difference between a prediction that the Crows won't make finals and a recommendation that the club should have a particular strategy with regard to making finals (this season is a writeoff, we should give up and focus on next year). I'm not talking about the correct predictions that we'd miss finals, but the declarations that the season was over and we can't make it.

Suggesting that the club should act as though finals is off the table from the current position is dumb, and it was dumb last year too when people did it after the Gold Coast, Essendon and GWS losses. You can't give up on a season in this position, given that we would be favoured to go to 6-1-6 from here. If we don't, that's when you can consider that approach.

 

[GreyCrow]

As I said, there's a difference between a prediction that the Crows won't make finals and a recommendation that the club should have a particular strategy with regard to making finals (this season is a writeoff, we should give up and focus on next year). I'm not talking about the correct predictions that we'd miss finals, but the declarations that the season was over and we can't make it.

Suggesting that the club should act as though finals is off the table from the current position is dumb. You can't give up on a season in this position, given that we would be favoured to go to 6-1-6 from here. If we don't, that's when you can consider that approach.

I did a ladder predictor - care to do one?

The problem is not so much us winning enough games its other teams will enough games as well

North and Richmond are free hits for clubs at the moment

 

[NSolis]

I did a ladder predictor - care to do one?

The problem is not so much us winning enough games its other teams will enough games as well

North and Richmond are free hits for clubs at the moment

I am not predicting the Crows will make finals. I think we'll finish around 10 wins or so (give or take).

Finals is very much possible and at this early stage in the season it would be absurd to give up on that possibility as a professional sporting team. They're entirely different questions.

 

[ftmch]

As usual, we can't seem to take a step forward without taking one backwards as well.

McHenry being dropped is obviously the correct move. Let's see if they make him earn his place back in the side... I won't hold my breath.

On the other hand, I am absolutely not a fan of Hamill, but last week was in my estimation the first AFL-worthy game he has played in years. I don't understand why he would get dropped this week. Fine if they want to play three tall defenders, but there are plenty of other options who performed worse than him.

Happy to see Berry and Schoenberg back in the side. I haven't written either of them off yet. Feels like Berry is the likely sub, but it could just as easily be Cook.

Agree with you re Hamill. The mixed messages some of these guys get in the form of selection and deselection is just bizarre.

 

[Miss Vanessa]

I don't believe this is true. If the kick went 40+ meters this would be true (long to a 50/50 contest) but a short kick has to find a teammate to be efficient (I think). This is why defenders usually have very high kicking efficiency, as they will usually either be chipping to a free teammate or kicking long to a contest. Inside mids have to pinpoint shorter passes in traffic which is much harder, or find the space to go long to a contest.

Disposal efficiency in and of itself - like most stats - is pretty useless. For example, last week Nick Daicos went at 58% DE and Ned McHenry went at 100% DE. Therefore we can surmise from this that McHenry is a better user of the ball than Daicos…

But looking at it in conjunction with multiple other stats (contested vs uncontested, number of kicks vs handballs, meters gained, turn overs, score involvements and assists) does give a decent indication of how a player went on a particular day.

While stats aren’t everything, they are pretty darn useful in making objective claims about the game.

 

[Southerntakeover]

As I said, there's a difference between a prediction that the Crows won't make finals and a recommendation that the club should have a particular strategy with regard to making finals (this season is a writeoff, we should give up and focus on next year). I'm not talking about the correct predictions that we'd miss finals, but the declarations that the season was over and we can't make it.

Suggesting that the club should act as though finals is off the table from the current position is dumb, and it was dumb last year too when people did it after the Gold Coast, Essendon and GWS losses. You can't give up on a season in this position, given that we would be favoured to go to 6-1-6 from here. If we don't, that's when you can consider that approach.

You're just arguing passionately for the thing you think will produce the worst result?

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Can’t wait to see either Borlase or butts subbed halfway through the third quarter tomorrow because our defence is too tall and slow

Then we’ll kick away for the win in the last due to a more mobile defence

Team balance is all wrong

 

[Scorpus]

I am not predicting the Crows will make finals. I think we'll finish around 10 wins or so (give or take).

Finals is very much possible and at this early stage in the season it would be absurd to give up on that possibility as a professional sporting team. They're entirely different questions.

There's a difference between the season being over mathematically, and the season being over practically speaking due to our likelihood of qualifying for finals and the way we're playing.

Our season isn't over mathematically, but given the way we are playing and needing to win 9 or 10 of our last 13 games, practically speaking it's over

The Crows love to live by the mathematical chance because it's the "make the eight and anything can happen" mentality. But really given the way the season has gone so far we should already be looking at how we get better for 2025

 

[NSolis]

There's a difference between the season being over mathematically, and the season being over practically speaking due to our likelihood of qualifying for finals and the way we're playing.

Our season isn't over mathematically, but given the way we are playing and needing to win 9 or 10 of our last 13 games, practically speaking it's over

The Crows love to live by the mathematical chance because it's the "make the eight and anything can happen" mentality. But really given the way the season has gone so far we should already be looking at how we get better for 2025

So Nicks should sit the players down and be like 'alright lads, it's fairly unlikely we make finals from here, so let's just face facts and focus on 2025'? What happens if we win the next 3 games and are 6-1-6 and in say 10th spot or so heading into the Sydney game? Should they still give up from there? At what point do you turn the ship around and focus on finals again?

I understand the logic here of course but I don't think this is a realistic or appropriate time to write the season off at all within the club. This isn't a mathematical chance like North where if they go 13-0 and have a few other things go their way it is possible to make finals. This is a competitive mid table side who can make finals with a good second half of the year.

Obviously if you're an external pundit making a prediction it's a different question, but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

 

[NSolis]

You're just arguing passionately for the thing you think will produce the worst result?

I think the worst result would be totally losing the players by telling them they are no chance to make finals with 13 games left in the season after losing to the premiers at the MCG by a kick. But your views may vary.

 

[Pugsley]

I am not predicting the Crows will make finals. I think we'll finish around 10 wins or so (give or take).

Finals is very much possible and at this early stage in the season it would be absurd to give up on that possibility as a professional sporting team. They're entirely different questions.

 

[Scorpus]

So Nicks should sit the players down and be like 'alright lads, it's fairly unlikely we make finals from here, so let's just face facts and focus on 2025'? What happens if we win the next 3 games and are 6-1-6 and in say 10th spot or so heading into the Sydney game? Should they still give up from there? At what point do you turn the ship around and focus on finals again?

I understand the logic here of course but I don't think this is a realistic or appropriate time to write the season off at all within the club. This isn't a mathematical chance like North where if they go 13-0 and have a few other things go their way it is possible to make finals. This is a competitive mid table side who can make finals with a good second half of the year.

Obviously if you're an external pundit making a prediction it's a different question, but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

I don't think you need to tell the players that's the goal specifically. You'd always go in to win (and not be proud of losses like the Collingwood game)

But Nicks could certainly be picking the side with a development focus rather than a finals focus now that finals are very unlikely.

And I disagree we could make finals with a strong second half of the year. We have no margin for error and very difficult games. Even if we are 6-1-6 we are virtually no chance when we'll likely need 13 wins to make it. Assuming Sydney beat us twice and we lose to Geelong in Kardinia again that's our margin gone. We'd need to win every other game. Mid table is generous given the actual mid table teams (6-12) mostly sit on double the wins we have

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I am not predicting the Crows will make finals. I think we'll finish around 10 wins or so (give or take).

Finals is very much possible and at this early stage in the season it would be absurd to give up on that possibility as a professional sporting team. They're entirely different questions.

Do you understand what “very much possible” means?

The way you use it , I suspect the chances of me bedding Miranda Kerr are very much possible.

 

[GreyCrow]

So Nicks should sit the players down and be like 'alright lads, it's fairly unlikely we make finals from here, so let's just face facts and focus on 2025'? What happens if we win the next 3 games and are 6-1-6 and in say 10th spot or so heading into the Sydney game? Should they still give up from there? At what point do you turn the ship around and focus on finals again?

I understand the logic here of course but I don't think this is a realistic or appropriate time to write the season off at all within the club. This isn't a mathematical chance like North where if they go 13-0 and have a few other things go their way it is possible to make finals. This is a competitive mid table side who can make finals with a good second half of the year.

I understand the argument you make and if you ask AmericanCrow he will say you try and win every damn game every damn time. If I could trust my club to do the right thing at the end of the year I would agree also

Our trading up into the top 5 is barely visible.

Obviously if you're an external pundit making a prediction it's a different question, but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

What is his other job? Let me give you a hint. Its something to do with development

I think the worst result would be totally losing the players by telling them they are no chance to make finals with 13 games left in the season after losing to the premiers at the MCG by a kick. But your views may vary.

ehh I like the Mike Ditka approach '' some of you wont be playing in a Superbowl but you can be part of the legacy that gets us one'

Given the money and match payments I can see why players such as Pedlar choose to play through his shoulder injury . I guess what I am trying to say is the players who might be offended can look at their payslips - I mean it sure looks like some are already doing the bare minimum to get one

So development. Nicks goes to the Footy Ops and the Board and says '' yeah I screwed up the first month - thats on me - but I am here for 2 years so I want the club to endorse the following. We start going hard with our draftees and find out what they can and cant do - bonus is we know empirically. Extra bonus is we might improve our draft hand. Best ever result is we start looking really really good ''

You are still trying to win every damn game every damn time but you arent so invested in the result that you fal back into old habits

Thats what I would do

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

So Nicks should sit the players down and be like 'alright lads, it's fairly unlikely we make finals from here, so let's just face facts and focus on 2025'? What happens if we win the next 3 games and are 6-1-6 and in say 10th spot or so heading into the Sydney game? Should they still give up from there? At what point do you turn the ship around and focus on finals again?

I understand the logic here of course but I don't think this is a realistic or appropriate time to write the season off at all within the club. This isn't a mathematical chance like North where if they go 13-0 and have a few other things go their way it is possible to make finals. This is a competitive mid table side who can make finals with a good second half of the year.

Obviously if you're an external pundit making a prediction it's a different question, but Nicks' job is to motivate a group of professional athletes to perform their best every week, not to make a correct forecast of a probable outcome.

He doesn't have to say anything to them.

He just has to conduct himself with a vision for what our next finals line up will be (let's start with finals...) and build towards that.

If we get on a winning run and are suddenly back in the mix, great.

If we don't win many but have started working towards building a quality, contending line up, that's progress.

If we chase rainbows with Laird and Crouch as two of our main mids, Tex as our No 1 forward target, Rachele predominantly at half forward, Curtin KPD in the reserves, Smith our half back springboard taking the bulk of the kickouts, Murph & Keays filling two forward half roles etc then we risk this being a wasted year.

 

[Smart Fella]

Season definitely isn't over, and I think it's particularly bizarre for people to be suggesting Nicks should be acting like the season is over at this point. Predicting we won't make finals is obviously fine (and I agree).

Club is 3-1-6 after an 0-4 start, have mostly played top half of the ladder teams and have three winnable games coming up, with 4 of the next 5 at home. Obviously the team should have eyes on getting to 6-1-6 or 7-1-7 over that period, at which point the season is obviously alive - you absolutely can't write off a team with a 50/50 record.

Now if we lose a couple of games in the next month, at that point we should be looking to 2025. You can't declare the season over now though, people just love to do that on this board. People wrote off the season pretty much every time we lost in the second half of the year in 2023 as well, and we missed finals by a kick.

I think people are suggesting Nicks should be changing it up and not backing in most of the same guys.

The young guys will be hungry to prove they are worthy of selection and if they perform, the older guys will have to step up to keep or regain their spot.

I'd love to see the Crows win 10 of the next 13 but we have a pretty good sample size that's telling us we won't.

On motorola edge 30 pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[DJ75]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Heard a couple of interesting bits over the last few days.
Firstly Laird was called in and spoken to be the coaches about his sulking (and general attitude) during games.
Secondly Nicks is fully blaming the recruiting team. He believes we aren’t good enough purely because he doesn’t believe we have the talent required. In his head I’m sure that explains his decision to only pick from the same 26 players.
However the senior team aren’t getting it done so what does he have to lose by trying some of the other guys? So stupid.

This is so on point for nicks. Rounds 1-4 it was the players fault.

Now it’s the recruiters fault.

Seems to have little capacity for self reflection.