Preview R2 v Crows - Showdown XLVIII

[Willsy10]

What is your chance in the ballot? 1,475/28,000 = 5.2%

I reckon the chances will be higher than that but no higher than 10%. There will be a few thousand that can't attend and won't enter the ballot, myself included.

 

[PepeSilvia]

Does 28,000 seem very high to anyone else? I'm guessing that number includes people who haven't yet informed the club of their decision re pledging/cancelling.

I know of some people who received the ballot email despite not having decided whether they are pledging or cancelling.

 

[Kingfish73]

I don't like my chances of getting one of those tickets, but would be good to go to the game. Mind you, how confident are we all? I watched the replay of Suns game, but they hardly put any real pressure on us. It will be interesting how young we go into game. Rocky, Boak and Powell-Pepper is plenty of grunt in midfield. I just dont see how Wines will make us a better team. Rocky looks in great form.

 

[shewho]

I'm glad some supporters will be there. I was concerned for the umpires if no-one was there to assist with their professional development.

I'd like to nominate my mate who has a booming voice and who, in a 1997 trial game against NM, when Carey dropped a mark in front of us on the wing, shouted, as the boundary umpire prepared to throw it in:

"You would've grabbed if it had **** on it, Carey.”

Boundry umpire laughed, several players smiled and Carey glared at us.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Does 28,000 seem very high to anyone else? I'm guessing that number includes people who haven't yet informed the club of their decision re pledging/cancelling.

I know of some people who received the ballot email despite not having decided whether they are pledging or cancelling.

Nope. My nephew asked me last night what was our chances and I said 52k - 8k SMA members = 44k members. Said I reckon 32k-35k would be 11 gamers. Said assume 90% have pledged 100%, based on discussions i have with about 20 members, gets you to 29k-31k.

The default position was a 100% pledge. Cut of the graphic from KT's message on 20th May

 

[StrappingTape]

Does 28,000 seem very high to anyone else? I'm guessing that number includes people who haven't yet informed the club of their decision re pledging/cancelling.

I know of some people who received the ballot email despite not having decided whether they are pledging or cancelling.

Well myself and a lot like me did neither as I was happy to leave it as is so the club gets it, kind of moot to ring up to pledge something that was already happening, safe for everyone to assume that unless you've rung up you haven't cancelled.

Also it's gone out to auskickers and are they 3 or 6 game holders as well so it's going to to be more than the 28k that get an entry. Then when a winner is drawn if they have 5 other members on their list as many will be on multiple lists then it means that the actual amount of drawn winners will more than like be around 400 given an attachment of 3 - 1 for each entry, the odds are much lower in this case.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

KT's email on 20th May made it clear if restricted access to games happened the 100% pledgers were the only ones who got tickets.

The default position was 100% pledge. Graphic part after of the email after his message

 

[Doctor Feel]

lol i'm assuming I still have Kayo. I have used it once in almost a year, and it was for the round of COVID Cup before the shut down. I never cancelled it so I assume I have it.

 

[StrappingTape]

KT's email on 20th May made it clear if restricted access to games happened the 100% pledgers were the only ones who got tickets.

The default position was 100% pledge. Graphic part after of the email after his message

View attachment 889630

Yet the emails telling you that you are good for the ballet have gone out to people who are not 11 game members. I've had friends tell me this morning they entered who didn't think they were eligible but received the email and have entered. Also you can take someone who isn't an 11 game member if you win as long as they are a winner judging by his email today.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

What is your chance in the ballot? 1,475/28,000 = 5.2%


Dear Members,

I know the significance of this moment hasn’t been lost on anyone.
Home Showdown, in our 150th year, in the Prison Bars.

It was always going to be a ticket worth having…yesterday its value went through the roof!

Since March, the prospect of being able to invite anyone into the Showdown seemed remote.

Less than 3 weeks ago we were contemplating playing this jewel in the crown of SA footy in a Queensland hub! How quickly things are moving.

Yesterday’s news by the Premier, that South Australia would be the first state to bring crowds back to AFL stadiums was both welcome and appreciated.

We now face the task of deciding who will get the opportunity to attend this historic match. It’s not an easy task.

Last night or this morning you would have received a note from the Club advising that the 1475 tickets allocated to Port Adelaide will be drawn from the 28,000 or so game access members who have pledged 100% of their membership in 2020.

We have asked these members to register their interest with the Club by 5pm tonight.

If you are unlucky and miss out, our intention is to replicate this ballot process for all future games where access is restricted…we’re aiming to get as many members as we possibly can into our games through the year.

Our team will sort through these registrations overnight and tomorrow to ensure that the qualification criteria has been met, before randomly selecting the 1475 ‘golden tickets’ to be handed to the lucky recipients.

We’re also trying to cater for families or small groups who sit together at the footy as part of their home game ritual. This adds another layer of complexity, but so long as each member qualifies as a game access member, then we think it’s the right thing to do to avoid any family squabbles!!
All I would ask is that you bear with us through this process…it’s new, and it’s short notice.

Our team will be doing all that they can over the next 48 hours to be as helpful as possible, to ensure that your registration is handled effectively.

If you are selected, you will be required to adhere to a range of health protocols and your ticket is definitely not transferable.

And most importantly you’ll have the heavy responsibility of cheering loud and representing the Port Adelaide family on this historic day.

Good luck, stay glued to your computer…and hopefully we’ll be able to see you at the footy!

KT

I note that it says game access members not 11 game access members.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yet the emails telling you that you are good for the ballet have gone out to people who are not 11 game members. I've had friends tell me this morning they entered who didn't think they were eligible but received the email and have entered. Also you can take someone who isn't an 11 game member if you win as long as they are a winner judging by his email today.

Was 11 gamers ever mentioned in any correspondence with the club? I assumed 11 gamers with seats when I text my nephew because I thought we had to be allocated a seat ie our normal seat and spread out.

But looks like there are 5 or 6 specific areas around the ground at levels 3 and 5 - don't want people at level 1 fetching the ball and touching it and passing on germs to players.

So I don't think it was ever restricted to 11 gamers, just have to be game access members.

 

[StrappingTape]

Was 11 gamers ever mentioned in any correspondence with the club? I assumed 11 gamers with seats when I text my nephew because I thought we had to be allocated a seat ie our normal seat and spread out.

But looks like there are 5 or 6 specific areas around the ground at levels 3 and 5 - don't want people at level 1 fetching the ball and touching it and passing on germs to players.

So I don't think it was ever restricted to 11 gamers, just have to be game access members.

Yeah I thought it was but who knows but it's going to make winning it a much lower %. I'm more pissed with the 475 crows fans being allowed to go, they'll have their own home games, just because it's a showdown shouldn't matter.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Looks like technically there will be about 2,500 people + SMA staff at AO.

2,000 Port/crows/AO members

240 corporates - hope they are just Port corporates but reckon some will be SMA corporrates. Heard SEN giving away a "golden ticket" so must be part of that 240.

160 - both clubs can have 80 staff each

100ish - AFL officials and media at the game inc broadcasters technical staff.

 

[StrappingTape]

I think the clubs done well to turn this around in a day too. Also I don't think it was in their control about the turd fans getting tickets, it's all gov optics so they look good to everyone. It still shits me and shortsighted by gov as they'll get their shot when they get some games at home, which they will.

 

[Portology]

Looks like technically there will be about 2,500 people + SMA staff at AO.

2,000 Port/crows/AO members

240 corporates - hope they are just Port corporates but reckon some will be SMA corporrates. Heard SEN giving away a "golden ticket" so must be part of that 240.

160 - both clubs can have 80 staff each

100ish - AFL officials and media at the game inc broadcasters tenchical staff.

Can’t wait for the “lowest ever Showdown crowd lol 119 tarps should cover it” jokes.

Looking forward to squinting at the game on my mobile though #NSWlife


On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[PepeSilvia]

Nope. My nephew asked me last night what was our chances and I said 52k - 8k SMA members = 44k members. Said I reckon 32k-35k would be 11 gamers. Said assume 90% have pledged 100%, based on discussions i have with about 20 members, gets you to 29k-31k.

The default position was a 100% pledge. Cut of the graphic from KT's message on 20th May

View attachment 889622

I also assumed we had ~35k 11-game members, but I'd be extremely surprised if 90% of those members have actively pledged 100%. That said, I also think it's a stretch to suggest that no more than 10% of our 11-game members have chosen either a <100% pledge or cancellation, so who knows.

Edit: I understand that the default position was a 100% pledge, but given that there was no deadline for a decision re pledging/cancelling, I don't see how you can necessarily include anyone that hasn't informed the club of their decision.

 

[RossFC]

Can’t wait for the “lowest ever Showdown crowd lol 119 tarps should cover it” jokes.

Looking forward to squinting at the game on my mobile though #NSWlife


On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app

Better than having 0 in round 1.

 

[JUSTWORK]

I also assumed we had ~35k 11-game members, but I'd be extremely surprised if 90% of those members have actively pledged 100%. That said, I also think it's a stretch to suggest that no more than 10% of our 11-game members have chosen either a <100% pledge or cancellation, so who knows.

The 90% isn’t a stretch at all, I’ve heard that’s the actual number of those who have pledged.

No idea about the break of at 11 game members though, nor the % of those who will actually nominate for tickets.

 

[PepeSilvia]

The 90% isn’t a stretch at all, I’ve heard that’s the actual number of those who have pledged.

Unless someone from the club can specifically confirm this, I'm going to have to disagree. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

My regular workplace, in light of the Covid situation, had to close towards the end of March and offered a credit/refund to ~1700 clients. We received a response from only ~500 of those clients in the following fortnight, and only around ~1000 have responded to date.

Given that it's only been three weeks since the club informed members of their options re pledging/cancelling, I would be very surprised if 90% of our members (or even just 11-game members) have responded or had someone respond on the behalf.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Unless someone from the club can specifically confirm this, I'm going to have to disagree. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

My regular workplace, in light of the Covid situation, had to close towards the end of March and offered a credit/refund to ~1700 clients. We received a response from only ~500 of those clients in the following fortnight, and only around ~1000 have responded to date.

Given that it's only been three weeks since the club informed members of their options re pledging/cancelling, I would be very surprised if 90% of our members (or even just 11-game members) have responded or had someone respond on the behalf.

When the club says that 90% have taken the full pledge option, they'll be including all of those that haven't responded. There's zero way to tell if they're still deciding, actually make a decision and just not contacted the club, or just lazy and missed the contact. Or they've got all email options disabled on their membership and potentially never say the email.

Edit: I understand that the default position was a 100% pledge, but given that there was no deadline for a decision re pledging/cancelling, I don't see how you can necessarily include anyone that hasn't informed the club of their decision.

Disagree on this. They state that the default position will be for people to pay the club the full membership, because of this some people who want that option would chose not to contact the club because its effort for no real purpose. You can't be excluding those people.

 

[Adz2332]

mitch georgiades i hope shakes his calf, but wouldnt risk him if it comes to that
Bonner, Wines and Dixon good to go.

Changes for me
georgiades (if inj) or ebert, Linert

In
Dixon And Wines

Ebert to stay in if georgiades doesnt get up, keeps a bit of experience in the forward line
McKenzie did enough to stay with a taller Adelaide forward line. Still think we lack a genuine tall backman, ie Howard
Let Westy swing back and Ruck
Bonner i dont see as a walk up 22

Watts, Williams, Bonner and Ladhams need some footy under there belt. where and how not sure

Definatley keen to see a foward line of

FF Marshall - Dixon - Rozee / Gray
HF Butters - georgiades - Motlop

 

[PepeSilvia]

When the club says that 90% have taken the full pledge option, they'll be including all of those that haven't responded. There's zero way to tell if they're still deciding, actually make a decision and just not contacted the club, or just lazy and missed the contact. Or they've got all email options disabled on their membership and potentially never say the email.

Agree with all of this. I think REH and JUSTWORK are suggesting that 90% have actively told the club that they're choosing the 100% pledge option, unless I've misread.

Disagree on this. They state that the default position will be for people to pay the club the full membership, because of this some people who want that option would chose not to contact the club because its effort for no real purpose. You can't be excluding those people.

That's a fair point.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

knowing my luck id get tickets with restricted viewing

 

[Coobk001]

Agree with all of this. I think REH and JUSTWORK are suggesting that 90% have actively told the club that they're choosing the 100% pledge option, unless I've misread.


That's a fair point.

Personally I never even considered responding, I paid for a membership. I'm not in financial distress. It's done. So I'd be pissed if I wasn't included in the ballot.

 

[RossFC]

mitch georgiades i hope shakes his calf, but wouldnt risk him if it comes to that
Bonner, Wines and Dixon good to go.

Changes for me
georgiades (if inj) or ebert, Linert

In
Dixon And Wines

Ebert to stay in if georgiades doesnt get up, keeps a bit of experience in the forward line
McKenzie did enough to stay with a taller Adelaide forward line. Still think we lack a genuine tall backman, ie Howard
Let Westy swing back and Ruck
Bonner i dont see as a walk up 22

Watts, Williams, Bonner and Ladhams need some footy under there belt. where and how not sure

Definatley keen to see a foward line of

FF Marshall - Dixon - Rozee / Gray
HF Butters - georgiades - Motlop

Spot on I reckon.