Autopsy RD 22 - Exposed by the Crows

[hutchy31]

Aren't we 7th?

The post says we're currently 7th. We were 8th before Rd 21.

 

[Oliver G]

Found it interesting that some of the signs were there despite the dominant Melbourne win.

vs. Melbourne: opposition had 20 shots from 39 inside 50s
vs. Adelaide: opposition had 26 shots from 43 inside 50s.

Keep in mind that good football is correlated to itself, ie, teams that prevent opposition inside 50s typically also prevent shots per inside 50s and typically also prevent high-quality shots as a proportion of shots.

Essentially it's highly unusual for us to be conceding fewer-than-league-average inside 50's per game, but higher-than-league-average shots per inside 50, because there is some football skills that apply to both (ie the intercepting, pressure and ball winning inside defensive 50 to prevent a shot being good also prevents an opposition inside 50 from eventuating).

We're worse than league average (12 are better than league average because Richmond, North and Eagles are dragging down the average in this particular stat). Essendon and Sydney are the other two. Across the season that's 48.3% of opposition entries leading to a shot. Compare other top teams which are around the 46% mark. It might not seem like much but it actually is, margins are generally that thin because it's just one part that adds up with inside 50 differential, quality of shots themselves, etc.

It's generally a hard thing to measure defence because it's the actions you take that prevent an opposition shot from going off that largely does it - while there might be an occasional smother or crunching run-down tackle more often than not the prevention of an opposition shot on goal is the accumulation of hard-to-measure things such as bodying up a defender or blocking space in the accumulation over the thousands across a season.

The takeaway from all this is to say that I think our midfield and half-back line up the ground is doing very well in preventing inside 50s that ultimately help the team, but the last-line defending is generally poor, and not getting the criticism that's warranted.

I genuinely believe that our defensive selections and units - at least in the purest sense of preventing an opposition forward entry from eventually becoming a shot - has been poor and has chugged along without criticism that is valid, and many of the defensive players who we assume are having good seasons (e.g. Jones, Duryea) are simply not the players that they have been in the past.

In regards to "quality of shots", were ranked 3rd for conceding the highest xScore per shot (as per Wheelo's formula), essentially meaning that we concede far too many easy shots at goal (directly in front, close to goal, etc, etc). Look at the teams around us, none of them are in the 8...



Source: Wheelo

 

[Cookie]

How about we drop blokes that miss shots at goal.

As a forward you are not doing your job by kicking points so you can have a kick in the twos until you sort it out.

Talking about the twos, the goal kicking yesterday by Footscray and Frankston was excellent. I just cannot understand how and why it is such a massive, long time problem with the so called best 22.
Beveridge has to be called out on why he has neglected to address the issue.

 

[Oliver G]

Talking about the twos, the goal kicking yesterday by Footscray and Frankston was excellent. I just cannot understand how and why it is such a massive, long time problem with the so called best 22.
Beveridge has to be called out on why he has neglected to address the issue.

Footscray are 3rd for score accuracy at the moment, out of 21 teams.

 

[maddog37]

Talking about the twos, the goal kicking yesterday by Footscray and Frankston was excellent. I just cannot understand how and why it is such a massive, long time problem with the so called best 22.
Beveridge has to be called out on why he has neglected to address the issue.

If you want consistent effort there really needs to be some sense that you will be held accountable for poor performances.

I don’t reckon Bevo agrees with that theory though. He is all about empathy and empowerment.

Seems the balance between carrot and stick is unbalanced in his regime.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Overreaction. How many other teams have taken a nosedive this season?

Its been a trend since 2021. At what point does "overreation" become "maybe we need to deal with this?"

 

[threenewpadlocks]

In regards to "quality of shots", were ranked 3rd for conceding the highest xScore per shot (as per Wheelo's formula), essentially meaning that we concede far too many easy shots at goal (directly in front, close to goal, etc, etc). Look at the teams around us, none of them are in the 8...

View attachment 2077097

Source: Wheelo

Yep. Probably says a lot the fact we've conceded a lowish points against score in large part because of the 16 players in a given game that aren't part of our back six, through up-the-ground pressure and intercepting. I think our back six has not been as good as many people assume for exactly this reason, and the ease in which Adelaide scored their 6 goals from centre bounce breaks is part of it. On the flip side, e.g. forward pressure of our front 6 has been outsanding, and things like Naughton's pressure and ground ball hunting for a big guy, West's defensive work and spoiling on opposition rebounders, Weightman becoming a more all-around small forward etc. is far more important defensively than our back six.

If we're to make a dent in finals this year, this is where we'd start - still trying to make improvements to our back 6 unit. It's really hard to see Khamis get outbodied yet again - the same problem we had against Brown way back in R1 - and think this is the path to winning finals this year.

 

[Unorth]

I genuinely believe that our defensive selections and units - at least in the purest sense of preventing an opposition forward entry from eventually becoming a shot - has been poor and has chugged along without criticism that is valid, and many of the defensive players who we assume are having good seasons (e.g. Jones, Duryea) are simply not the players that they have been in the past.

I agree but we’re also pretty much rolling the best defensive unit we have out there. Busslinger is the only unknown variable in that space.

Keath, Gardner and Busslinger are all options that may get a shot just because Buku does not have a firm grasp on his position. I also don’t like Coffield and Buku playing together, it’s like we aren’t sure which one to pick as a third tall so we just go with both.

Duryea is the best option we have for non-talls, Cleary just didn’t come on as hoped. And luckily for us Doc is still having a much better season than last…but at his age the cliff comes quick.

I think the Jones-Lobb-Khamis trio is essentially us punting 1:1 defensive coverage and going all in on intercept ability, relying on elite pressure up the ground to make it work. Gardner I’m not sure improves anything (hence him spending this vfl season up forward) and Keath seems to be our vfl backline captain to mentor Busslinger.

It’s a bit one trick pony, if that pressure drops off, and our intercept game is compromised, this backline is going to get cooked every time.

I interpret Pratts work though as recognition that as our list is constructed we were never going to be much chop in one on one contests and went hell to leather on intercepting. Mentioned elsewhere but that’s probably why we’re linked to Barrass.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

In regards to "quality of shots", were ranked 3rd for conceding the highest xScore per shot (as per Wheelo's formula), essentially meaning that we concede far too many easy shots at goal (directly in front, close to goal, etc, etc). Look at the teams around us, none of them are in the 8...

View attachment 2077097

Source: Wheelo

Team	Opposition's expected points per their Inside 50's against you
NM	1.73​
WC	1.72​
Rich	1.69​
Ess	1.62​
Carl	1.60​
WB	1.59​
AFL	1.55​
Adel	1.54​
Haw	1.53​
St K	1.52​
Gee	1.51​
Bris	1.50​
GWS	1.50​
Col	1.48​
Melb	1.48​
Frem	1.48​
Syd	1.48​
Por	1.45​
GC	1.44​

GC are a weird one on the list but this is a genuine issue relative to the fact that all other measurements of score as a subdivision of us still having a top-4 net points for/against result have us high (our percentage is still the third best in the league). It's such a strange thing to be bad at when everything else (other than our own goalkicking) we're performing at a top level.

 

[The City Boyz]

Talking about the twos, the goal kicking yesterday by Footscray and Frankston was excellent. I just cannot understand how and why it is such a massive, long time problem with the so called best 22.
Beveridge has to be called out on why he has neglected to address the issue.

Was thinking the same thing yesterday - it's incredible how much more confident our VFL forwards (Bedendo, Arty, Clarke) look in front of the goals than our AFL equivalents (VDM, Darcy, Naughty, Marra)

 

[Dogs Rule]

If you want consistent effort there really needs to be some sense that you will be held accountable for poor performances.

I don’t reckon Bevo agrees with that theory though. He is all about empathy and empowerment.

Seems the balance between carrot and stick is unbalanced in his regime.

Exactly. I don't think there is a stick.

 

[maddog37]

Prefer JOD to Buku personally. Better kick and better defender.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Coaches Votes

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs​

8 Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

(ADEL)
8 Reilly O'Brien

43

Reilly O'brien

Age

29

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.4

4star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

5star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

14.4

3star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

4star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

24.8

5star

(ADEL)
5 Matt Crouch

5

Matt Crouch

Age

29

Ht

183cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

28.4

5star

K

12.0

4star

HB

16.4

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

24.9

5star

K

9.7

4star

HB

15.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

2.0

4star

(ADEL)
3 Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

(ADEL)
2 Josh Worrell (ADEL)
2 Mark Keane (ADEL)
1 Sam Darcy (WB)
1 Lachlan Sholl (ADEL)

 

[Walsh Bay]

Ha Bevo declining to acknowledge O'Brien's utter dominance and instead somewhat eccentrically giving the nod to Crouch.

Never change, mate.

 

[Scotch N Coke Monatore]

We lost the game because we could not stick tackles. The Crows made it a tactic to take tacklers on and we generally could not deal with it.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Ha Bevo declining to acknowledge O'Brien's utter dominance and instead somewhat eccentrically giving the nod to Crouch.

Never change, mate.

He gave him 4 votes.

 

[_Mike_]

Footscray are 3rd for score accuracy at the moment, out of 21 teams.

Who's the forwards coach for the VFL team?

 

[Mofra]

He gave him 4 votes.

Impossible - both Darcy and Sholl have 1 vote each

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Maybe, but I'm not talking about this season specifically - it's a pattern of behaviour since late 2021 H&A. Three losses to finish that season to miss top four, struggled in 2022 and needed an all time collapse from Carlton to sneak into finals (where we promptly gave up a seven goal lead to lose the EF), then the debacle of the hawks/WC performances in 2023 - again in the last three games of the season.

The past month of footy had been great to that point, but it's an indictment on the club, footy department and playing group that yesterday's performance wasn't a surprise.

Every season is different. Different players, different dynamics. We can be lucky with who we draft or trade for, and we have a very good list manager who we can thank for some really good acquisitions. Or we can be like some other teams that I won't name who seem to dip out all around.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Its been a trend since 2021. At what point does "overreation" become "maybe we need to deal with this?"

Deal with what? There have been changes every year.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Impossible - both Darcy and Sholl have 1 vote each

O'Brien got 8 votes. So either 4-4 or 5-3. Wouldn't be surprised if Bevo gave him the 5

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Deal with what? There have been changes every year.

Going in circles now - mental fragility in “easier” games. The ones that we should always logically win but we never turn upto because ……. Bulldogs.

Bring in the psychologists before the Norf game.

 

[Munnez]

Shoulda woulda coulda etc but Darcy could have had 6 goals. None were crazy difficult. Something went right there on some level to generate those chances.

But it was a glimpse into how panicky teams will get around him, at least. They had no answer for him, he was just his own worst enemy.

Yep if Darcy was kicking goals would have been very different contest. Crows could play with dare and take chances because we gave them an easy 5 goal start. Had opportunities to claw it back to single digit deficit but would fluff it then they kick a goal and with a comfortable margin can afford to take chances and they made us pay.
If we could have got it closer at any stage they might have been not so brave. We weren't good enough to do so and full credit to them for execution of their plan.
We just didn't do ourselves any favours with our goal kicking

 

[Munnez]

I still don’t see it with Buku

Buku just has too many deficiencies if the ball is not under super pressure he gets carved up. Not strong enough for 1 vs 1 and weak ground game. Not conducive as realistically ball is not always going to be super pressured.
He needs to get stronger so he can hold his ground not be reliant on getting a run and jump at it

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Every club has to deal with a fluctuating injury list. It definitely helps if you have luck with few injuries like Melbourne did in 2021. I agree the latter part of 2016 was unusual and injuries had an impact for that part of the year. There was also Macrae’s knee injury for a few weeks late in 2016. But outside that period I don’t remember us having to deal with too much out of the ordinary.

Dusty is unique. We didn’t have a match winner like Dusty. No other club did. We do come close with Bontempelli but then he has stayed pretty fit over the whole decade averaging over 20 games a season.

Another possible reason is our style of play. It was suggested after 2016 that we played an unsustainable “high octane” style of frenetic footy. I don’t know if that was really the case.

Even if it was true back then I am not convinced our style has been any more draining than other clubs’ style in the last 5-6 years. I’d be interested to hear from anyone who thinks it is.

Matthew Ling has suggested our mids play high octane footy when we win - finals level footy - and that it’s utterly unsustainable for a full season. He said the reason we drop the “easy games” is because our mids mentally drop 5 percent as they anticipate (knowingly or not) an easier week and then we get found out by teams that sense it and go for the kill. It makes plenty of sense when you look at our last few years which is why I think we need to focus on the psychology of prepping for down/easy games leading in. Ling said it better than I have 5 weeks ago explaining our inconsistent form.