Toast Reasons for Optimism

[Hamann188]

With our forward line last season I think our top expectations would have been finals.

Another season into the Js plus Sturt, plus Bolton and I think that top range ups to premier.

Absolutely, really the pressure is on J Lo.

I have vocally been saying its "Top 8 or bust" but quietly, with our list and even our depth (injuries can't really be an excuse anymore either) I've been saying "top 4 or bust"

Rawlings is waiting in the wings.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Again, and I really am being pedantic now, I think we all know our flag window hasn't been "open" since 2015.

But I would argue that the window has been gradually "opening" since 2017 and if it's still "opening" it can't have much further to go, close enough as to make no difference between "opening" and "wide open".

But it's starting to sound like I'm arguing over semantics. God I'm such a grammar nazi. It's a sickness.

I feel like if you apply that logic then every team with a mathematical chance of playing finals would be labelled as wide open.

 

[poshman]

Sean Darcy posted a pic of him, Jackson, Pearce and music festival at a gym the other day. And he is looking lean!

If he can get through until round 1 without injury… boy oh boy.

 

[CapitalA]

Sean Darcy posted a pic of him, Jackson, Pearce and music festival at a gym the other day. And he is looking lean!

If he can get through until round 1 without injury… boy oh boy.

Locked him into my fantasy team already

 

[theGav56]

Absolutely, really the pressure is on J Lo.

I have vocally been saying its "Top 8 or bust" but quietly, with our list and even our depth (injuries can't really be an excuse anymore either) I've been saying "top 4 or bust"

Rawlings is waiting in the wings.

Yeah, I'm not sacking a coach who gets us in the finals. Depending on circumstances a little, but hey, there's always circumstances.

 

[eastfreo75]

Yeah, I'm not sacking a coach who gets us in the finals. Depending on circumstances a little, but hey, there's always circumstances.

Golden State sacked Mark Johnson and hired Steve Kerr.

 

[theGav56]

Golden State sacked Mark Johnson and hired Steve Kerr.

Sometimes you win the lottery.

 

[eastfreo75]

Sometimes you win the lottery.

Jackson was a good coach but way too intense and his offense was uncreative. Kerr was calm and had a creative offense.

JLo is just too risk alert but still a good coach.

 

[Hamann188]

I feel like if you apply that logic then every team with a mathematical chance of playing finals would be labelled as wide open.

If the competition is as tight or even tighter than it was last year, then yeah, everybody with a mathematical chance of playing finals would be labelled as "wide open"

 

[Hamann188]

Yeah, I'm not sacking a coach who gets us in the finals. Depending on circumstances a little, but hey, there's always circumstances.

Oh god no! J Lo takes us to finals and he definitely gets an extension.

But just quietly, between you, me and the rest of the BigFooty brethren, I reckon we should be cracking the top 4.

 

[theGav56]

Oh god no! J Lo takes us to finals and he definitely gets an extension.

But just quietly, between you, me and the rest of the BigFooty brethren, I reckon we should be cracking the top 4.

Yeah, I am seeing more than 4 clubs who think they should be cracking the top 4.

Really what I want to see from Longmuir is things like:

• an outstanding use of Darcy and Jackson that gives us a clear edge in games and midfield dominance.
• a vision for how Bolton integrates into the team that has a multiplier effect across the entire forward structure.
• a clear plan for how our three tall forwards operate together.
• much better transition, especially midfield to forward.
• a harder defensive edge when the ball is turned over forward of centre.
• alternative strategies from kick ins, and general predictability.
• some kind of vision for how to best utilise a young and talented list while still getting maximum benefit from some fading warhorses
• some kind of game plan flexibility. We seem to have a team flush with players capable of playing multiple roles, but don't exploit it as well as we could.

I'm almost certain they aren't sitting around thinking top 4 or bust. It is within the coach's orbit to have identified the aspects of the game plan that gives us the chance to be there at the end.

 

[poshman]

Yeah, I am seeing more than 4 clubs who think they should be cracking the top 4.

Really what I want to see from Longmuir is things like:

• an outstanding use of Darcy and Jackson that gives us a clear edge in games and midfield dominance.
• a vision for how Bolton integrates into the team that has a multiplier effect across the entire forward structure.
• a clear plan for how our three tall forwards operate together.
• much better transition, especially midfield to forward.
• a harder defensive edge when the ball is turned over forward of centre.
• alternative strategies from kick ins, and general predictability.
• some kind of vision for how to best utilise a young and talented list while still getting maximum benefit from some fading warhorses
• some kind of game plan flexibility. We seem to have a team flush with players capable of playing multiple roles, but don't exploit it as well as we could.

I'm almost certain they aren't sitting around thinking top 4 or bust. It is within the coach's orbit to have identified the aspects of the game plan that gives us the chance to be there at the end.

Three of these have been egregious.

- the plan for Jackson and Darcy plus not choosing a ruck when Darcy was out of the team. It was a glaring issue that was an obvious problem in 2023. Our inability to pivot until late 2024 was damning.

- kick ins: Ryan needs to perform less kick ins. Clark or Chappy should be rotated through. Both have penetrating kicks and can take more ground before the kick due to their pace. Ryan is also good in the contest so should be a benefit as an occasional target.

- game plan flexibility: we need to let them all out attack more often. Not just when we get four goals down. Sometimes when we are up we should throw it in instead of our predictable ‘shut up shop’ approach. There is room for all approaches. I think this will see us develop a more ruthless edge.

- centre bounce set ups: the Essendon game was borderline unforgivable. Stupidity and rank incompetence were on display. Multiple goals coming from the front of the centre bounce and we were playing two players on the attacking side.

The great news is that some of these are easy fixes and we have the talent already in place. That makes me very optimistic for the years ahead.

 

[eastfreo75]

Three of these have been egregious.

- the plan for Jackson and Darcy plus not choosing a ruck when Darcy was out of the team. It was a glaring issue that was an obvious problem in 2023. Our inability to pivot until late 2024 was damning.

- kick ins: Ryan needs to perform less kick ins. Clark or Chappy should be rotated through. Both have penetrating kicks and can take more ground before the kick due to their pace. Ryan is also good in the contest so should be a benefit as an occasional target.

- game plan flexibility: we need to let them all out attack more often. Not just when we get four goals down. Sometimes when we are up we should throw it in instead of our predictable ‘shut up shop’ approach. There is room for all approaches. I think this will see us develop a more ruthless edge.

- centre bounce set ups: the Essendon game was borderline unforgivable. Stupidity and rank incompetence were on display. Multiple goals coming from the front of the centre bounce and we were playing two players on the attacking side.

The great news is that some of these are easy fixes and we have the talent already in place. That makes me very optimistic for the years ahead.

Ruck - Walls is an excellent list manager but I think he has drop the ball on this. Developing Rucks is a waste of time as they could good they will ask for a trade ie Meek. Better just get an insurance ruck on can plug n play and be ok.

Kick ins - teams knew we would kick and usually the long to a contest. They would man the mark and sit 30m in the middle blocking space. Love for us to keep the other team honest by running from kick hits.

Game plan flexibility - I know this is a basketball concept but take what the defense gives you. Another point is that when we switched it was slow. The second kick needs to quicker, the Players need to have ground mapping and understand the next kick. Also, a player would have two steps on a defender and running into the space and our players refused to kick the ball into the space.

Centre - We need to get one sweeper, I think Brayshaw should that player.

 

[poshman]

Ruck - Walls is an excellent list manager but I think he has drop the ball on this. Developing Rucks is a waste of time as they could good they will ask for a trade ie Meek. Better just get an insurance ruck on can plug n play and be ok.

Kick ins - teams knew we would kick and usually the long to a contest. They would man the mark and sit 30m in the middle blocking space. Love for us to keep the other team honest by running from kick hits.

Game plan flexibility - I know this is a basketball concept but take what the defense gives you. Another point is that when we switched it was slow. The second kick needs to quicker, the Players need to have ground mapping and understand the next kick. Also, a player would have two steps on a defender and running into the space and our players refused to kick the ball into the space.

Centre - We need to get one sweeper, I think Brayshaw should that player.

Kick Ins: Yep, which is why it should be Clark or Chappy a lot of the time. We should also consider who we selecxt to present for the short pocket kick. That second kick could be a big win for us if we kick it to a speedy player initially. The stand rule means they should be away with a couple of steps and the ball is either moving rapidly or 55m further up the ground. If Ryan is kicking it in, Chappy or Clark need to be the short option so they can move it at pace.

 

[chaosball32]

Oh god no! J Lo takes us to finals and he definitely gets an extension.

But just quietly, between you, me and the rest of the BigFooty brethren, I reckon we should be cracking the top 4.

Disagree. We scrape into the finals in 8th and get comfortably beat in an elimination final and I reckon that’s enough to suggest JL isn’t the guy, especially if this list has as much upside as people reckon it does - FWIW I believe it’s probably the most talented team we’ve ever had

JL is coming into his 6th season but some still act like he’s only in his 2nd or 3rd season. Top 6 and a prelim should be the expectation, but the goal should be top 4 and a flag. It’s been a disappointing 5 years under JL so far and at some point this club needs to take the next step, and I’m confident this team is capable of doing that in 2025.

I think as a fanbase our expectations have been too tempered, which I understand seeing as we’ve ranged from mediocre to shithouse for a long time now, but we are primed and ready to go, and as such expectations should go up.

 

[Hamann188]

Disagree. We scrape into the finals in 8th and get comfortably beat in an elimination final and I reckon that’s enough to suggest JL isn’t the guy, especially if this list has as much upside as people reckon it does - FWIW I believe it’s probably the most talented team we’ve ever had

JL is coming into his 6th season but some still act like he’s only in his 2nd or 3rd season. Top 6 and a prelim should be the expectation, but the goal should be top 4 and a flag. It’s been a disappointing 5 years under JL so far and at some point this club needs to take the next step, and I’m confident this team is capable of doing that in 2025.

I think as a fanbase our expectations have been too tempered, which I understand seeing as we’ve ranged from mediocre to shithouse for a long time now, but we are primed and ready to go, and as such expectations should go up.

Yeah I don't think we are in total disagreement, when I said finals i did mean comfortably in the 8.

You're absolutely right, we should be aiming for at least top 6 and a home final.

Counter argument for counter argument's sake though, what if we do just scrape into the 8 but then win away in the Elims?

Would that be sufficient to keep him on?

 

[Sully90]

Yeah I don't think we are in total disagreement, when I said finals i did mean comfortably in the 8.

You're absolutely right, we should be aiming for at least top 6 and a home final.

Counter argument for counter argument's sake though, what if we do just scrape into the 8 but then win away in the Elims?

Would that be sufficient to keep him on?

It's why I think worst case scenario for us is actually 7th or 8th. Finish out of the 8 and we sack JLo and get another coach in. 6th Plus and we know we're on track.

 

[theGav56]

Ruck - Walls is an excellent list manager but I think he has drop the ball on this. Developing Rucks is a waste of time as they could good they will ask for a trade ie Meek. Better just get an insurance ruck on can plug n play and be ok.
.

Reidy seems to fit this criteria.

At first I was disappointed Knobel got knabbed by the Suns. But Riddle seems a better fit if he has some capacity to play an other position. I don't see him becoming a first choice ruck.

Eventually we could end up with:

• Reidy as cover for Darcy and Jackson
• Riddle as cover for Jackson/KPP

Of course I have no idea how he progresses, but it was a pretty good pivot by Walls.