Toast Reasons for Optimism

[oldgoat]

You are having a laugh if dockers can make top 4 this season after a horrible 2 seasons. You are essentially asking for a Chris Connolly 2006 season. Unlikely but possible.

I can tolerate a home Elim final won in 2025

hey Maniac this is the OPTImism thread, you shoulda turned right at the PESSYmism thread!
Were about to have a crack...no guarantees!
Its sad when the knowledge that winning in an 18 team competition, is the least likely result, makes someone depressed.
I am glad our team doesnt think like that!
YOKAI!
(Actually the wooden spoon is THE least likely result for us in 2025)

 

[oldgoat]

I'm Positive there is a lot of negativity in the positivity thread

Pessimism is a very safe and lazy bet...
17 teams will reward their pessimistic fans this season....
only one team will reward their optimistic fans!

 

[oldgoat]

I think you love reminding anyone who’ll listen as often as possible.

Don’t worry, JLo will win us the elusive trophy and you can have a new messiah soon enough.

peeK , you underestimate some folks pessimism, even a Threepeat will not be enough to quench their passion .
Their messiah is already speaking.

 

[poshman]

Mate I was optimistic and positive when the 2017 season ended when we got 8 wins and 14th spot.

The year before we were 0-10 and crippled with injuries and laughed at opposition fans.

At the end the day, we build ourselves up hope we go well. By the end of the season we fall short and don't make finals.

The Victorian media has pumped us up to make top 4 and win the flag. We are hyped up to unrealistic expectations.

We miss out on finals, we will be punished, mocked and Justin Longmuir will be sacked.

We don't make finals, that is 5 years out of 6 years of no finals.

I’ve been pretty polite so far. I normally appreciate your posts but over the last six months you have moved from analysis to outright pessimism. And despite how it is represented true optimism, is the superior mindset.

If you are convinced we won’t make the finals or only just scrape in then you can present that. But stay out with the conspiratorial nonsense. I will supply a list of reasons why we should aim for 15 wins this season. Interact with them and thoroughly but without the outright pessimism.

• Shia Bolton adds an A grader and makes out forward line a top 3 forward unit in the league with room for improvement.
• the games of played of our young players is right at the beginning of the window. This is huge for us because
• the players are now of afl size and not a scrawny group. We won’t be bullied for size this season.
• it is coinciding with the beginning of the peak years of our best players. This means that in five years Amiss, Treacy, serrong, Brayshaw, Young, Jackson, Darcy, Cox, Clark, Chappy, Walker, Sturt and Freddy will all be in their peak years.
• this means we will have A graders on every line.
• Bolton could still be close to his.
• I haven’t included Draper who projects as an A grader, but I think we can agree he should be. B grader at least.
• Treacy and Amiss are the most talented forward duo we have had at the club (KPF).
• financially the club is run very well. While I have concerns that a premiership is not our number on focus from a board point of view I do believe it is the teams focus. We are no longer a rabble off the field and that impacts on field in a big way.
• the extra home each season will be a big win for us. Not only in terms of W/L but less travel.
• I choose to believe one of Simpson, Murphy, Ras, Johnson or Bruce will be at least a high B grader and that we can find another contributor from that group.
• our drafting has been strong I back Walls.

It is for these reasons and more that I believe we should aim for 15 wins in 2025.

The decade of dominance has begun!!

 

[poshman]

Mate I was optimistic and positive when the 2017 season ended when we got 8 wins and 14th spot.

The year before we were 0-10 and crippled with injuries and laughed at opposition fans.

At the end the day, we build ourselves up hope we go well. By the end of the season we fall short and don't make finals.

The Victorian media has pumped us up to make top 4 and win the flag. We are hyped up to unrealistic expectations.

We miss out on finals, we will be punished, mocked and Justin Longmuir will be sacked.

We don't make finals, that is 5 years out of 6 years of no finals.

1. If we miss finals JL should be sacked.

2. I don’t care what the Vic media say.

3. I don’t think anyone is expecting a premiership. Our list and talent indicate a top four opportunity.

4. Who the hell would be punishing us? Catastrophising much? Punished… all your arguments are rendered nonsense by that one claim.

 

[freo84]

I’ve been pretty polite so far. I normally appreciate your posts but over the last six months you have moved from analysis to outright pessimism. And despite how it is represented true optimism, is the superior mindset.

If you are convinced we won’t make the finals or only just scrape in then you can present that. But stay out with the conspiratorial nonsense. I will supply a list of reasons why we should aim for 15 wins this season. Interact with them and thoroughly but without the outright pessimism.

• Shia Bolton adds an A grader and makes out forward line a top 3 forward unit in the league with room for improvement.
• the games of played of our young players is right at the beginning of the window. This is huge for us because
• the players are now of afl size and not a scrawny group. We won’t be bullied for size this season.
• it is coinciding with the beginning of the peak years of our best players. This means that in five years Amiss, Treacy, serrong, Brayshaw, Young, Jackson, Darcy, Cox, Clark, Chappy, Walker, Sturt and Freddy will all be in their peak years.
• this means we will have A graders on every line.
• Bolton could still be close to his.
• I haven’t included Draper who projects as an A grader, but I think we can agree he should be. B grader at least.
• Treacy and Amiss are the most talented forward duo we have had at the club (KPF).
• financially the club is run very well. While I have concerns that a premiership is not our number on focus from a board point of view I do believe it is the teams focus. We are no longer a rabble off the field and that impacts on field in a big way.
• the extra home each season will be a big win for us. Not only in terms of W/L but less travel.
• I choose to believe one of Simpson, Murphy, Ras, Johnson or Bruce will be at least a high B grader and that we can find another contributor from that group.
• our drafting has been strong I back Walls.

It is for these reasons and more that I believe we should aim for 15 wins in 2025.

The decade of dominance has begun!!

Now this is what this thread is all about!

 

[Dockeroo]

Interesting to compare the two midfields.

2013 v 2024

Sandi > Darcy
Fyfe - Serong
Mundy > Brayshaw
Barlow < Young
Hill > Johnson
Mzungu - Sharp
Crowley > Fyfe
Neale > ODriscoll

Johnno and Dris break outs would really have a big impact on the team, probably more than improvement from any other players.

Interesting post.
I’d have Fyfe > Serong personally.
Also have Mundy and AB as even.

I think Serongs ultimate are ceiling is peak Lachie Neale (and he’s not quite there yet).

Fantastic player, but a level below Fyfe, even in 2013 he was starting to dominate.

 

[Jezzitizle]

Interesting post.
I’d have Fyfe > Serong personally.
Also have Mundy and AB as even.

I think Serongs ultimate are ceiling is peak Lachie Neale (and he’s not quite there yet).

Fantastic player, but a level below Fyfe, even in 2013 he was starting to dominate.

These things are definitely subjective, so wouldn’t argue, but would add that Serong 2024 AA, Fyfe made the squad in 2013 + Serong 4th on 28 votes in the Brownlow v Fyfe 10th on 18. Not perfect measures but nothing ever is.

Maybe Fyfe’s best games were better (or at least more spectacular), but Serong was consistently at a high level.

Clearly Fyfe’s best years are better than Serong has shown so far, but for me I have to give it to Serong for those seasons.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Anyway, this conversation is going against the spirit of this thread.

Changing topic:

Amiss, Treacy, Bolton, Jackson, Sturt, Pickett.

Ah yep, that'll do it.

That forward line, with Young, Serong, Reid, Erasmus, Johnson etc rotating through the forward line I think we could get around with only playing 6 forwards and playing an extra mid.

I wonder what the stats are on if you get more benefit from playing 7 forwards and 8 mids or 6 forwards and 9 mids (assuming you play 7 backs).

 

[Jezzitizle]

That forward line, with Young, Serong, Reid, Erasmus, Johnson etc rotating through the forward line I think we could get around with only playing 6 forwards and playing an extra mid.

I wonder what the stats are on if you get more benefit from playing 7 forwards and 8 mids or 6 forwards and 9 mids (assuming you play 7 backs).

You’d think it would vary game to game.

For example if the oppo have a good midfield and a great defence, possibly better with a proper forward, and vice versa.

 

[Hamann188]

I’ve been pretty polite so far. I normally appreciate your posts but over the last six months you have moved from analysis to outright pessimism. And despite how it is represented true optimism, is the superior mindset.

If you are convinced we won’t make the finals or only just scrape in then you can present that. But stay out with the conspiratorial nonsense. I will supply a list of reasons why we should aim for 15 wins this season. Interact with them and thoroughly but without the outright pessimism.

• Shia Bolton adds an A grader and makes out forward line a top 3 forward unit in the league with room for improvement.
• the games of played of our young players is right at the beginning of the window. This is huge for us because
• the players are now of afl size and not a scrawny group. We won’t be bullied for size this season.
• it is coinciding with the beginning of the peak years of our best players. This means that in five years Amiss, Treacy, serrong, Brayshaw, Young, Jackson, Darcy, Cox, Clark, Chappy, Walker, Sturt and Freddy will all be in their peak years.
• this means we will have A graders on every line.
• Bolton could still be close to his.
• I haven’t included Draper who projects as an A grader, but I think we can agree he should be. B grader at least.
• Treacy and Amiss are the most talented forward duo we have had at the club (KPF).
• financially the club is run very well. While I have concerns that a premiership is not our number on focus from a board point of view I do believe it is the teams focus. We are no longer a rabble off the field and that impacts on field in a big way.
• the extra home each season will be a big win for us. Not only in terms of W/L but less travel.
• I choose to believe one of Simpson, Murphy, Ras, Johnson or Bruce will be at least a high B grader and that we can find another contributor from that group.
• our drafting has been strong I back Walls.

It is for these reasons and more that I believe we should aim for 15 wins in 2025.

The decade of dominance has begun!!

DOCKade of dominance Posh, the dockade.

 

[pK75]

That forward line, with Young, Serong, Reid, Erasmus, Johnson etc rotating through the forward line I think we could get around with only playing 6 forwards and playing an extra mid.

I wonder what the stats are on if you get more benefit from playing 7 forwards and 8 mids or 6 forwards and 9 mids (assuming you play 7 backs).

I’d argue we already are given Switta’s lack of scoreboard impact.

 

[theGav56]

I’d argue we already are given Switta’s lack of scoreboard impact.

Playing Switkowski isn't mandatory. With Erasmus, Banfield, Murphy and Cooper we have other options not in the 22. Longmuir clearly likes what he brings, and I'm optimistically interested to see how Bolton impacts his output.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I’d argue we already are given Switta’s lack of scoreboard impact.

Wrong thread, but if you add Frederick as well (23 goals from 20 games).

I wonder how the better sides are?

You would think most forwards should be 30 plus.

Swans have 7 players who kicked 27 or more.

• Joel Amartey – 43 goals
• Will Hayward – 41 goals
• Logan McDonald – 37 goals
• Tom Papley – 36 goals
• Chad Warner – 35 goals
• Isaac Heeney – 34 goals
• Hayden McLean – 27 goals
• Errol Gulden – 15 goals
• Luke Parker – 14 goals
• Sam Wicks – 10 goals

we have

Treacy - 45
Amiss - 36
Frederick - 23
Jackson - 21
Sturt -21
Banfield - 20
Walters - 17
Young - 13.
Switta - 12
Serong -11

Optimistically.

Treacy and Amiss should be able to 10-20 goals between them (1/2 a goal a game)
Bolton will hopefully play one of his better years, and push 40. 20 goal upgrade on Walters. (1 goal a game)
If Sturt stays on the park he should kick 30 + (1/2 a goal a game)
O'Driscoll back in the team, and kicking goals from wing (A decent upgrade on JoM)
Then we just need the rest to lift, especially the midfield. (1/2 a goal a game)

If we can find 2 goals a game, then we will be a top 4 scoring team in the comp.

PS - not sure if the Swans stats include finals. I expect they do.

AFL Stats - AFL.com.au

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[go_the_dockers]

Playing Switkowski isn't mandatory. With Erasmus, Banfield, Murphy and Cooper we have other options not in the 22. Longmuir clearly likes what he brings, and I'm optimistically interested to see how Bolton impacts his output.

Switta is their for forward pressure.

I think we can increase our goal kicking enough while keeping him in the side.

I know others rate Frederick higher than me, but I would consider replacing him with Cooper Simpson if he has a good preseason. Another clean user of the ball in the forward line would help.

 

[eastfreo75]

That's all true and nice.

But convince me other wise we will at least make finals in 2025?

What makes you think he will be top 4 again with 3 games to go?

We can be top 4 with 3 games to go, lose all 3 of those last games and still miss out on finals.


It's a docker.... I mean a Dockery thing to do.

Who killed your cat?

 

[eastfreo75]

Wrong thread, but if you add Frederick as well (23 goals from 20 games).

I wonder how the better sides are?

You would think most forwards should be 30 plus.

Swans have 7 players who kicked 27 or more.

• Joel Amartey – 43 goals
• Will Hayward – 41 goals
• Logan McDonald – 37 goals
• Tom Papley – 36 goals
• Chad Warner – 35 goals
• Isaac Heeney – 34 goals
• Hayden McLean – 27 goals
• Errol Gulden – 15 goals
• Luke Parker – 14 goals
• Sam Wicks – 10 goals

we have

Treacy - 45
Amiss - 36
Frederick - 23
Jackson - 21
Sturt -21
Banfield - 20
Walters - 17
Young - 13.
Switta - 12
Serong -11

Optimistically.

Treacy and Amiss should be able to 10-20 goals between them (1/2 a goal a game)
Bolton will hopefully play one of his better years, and push 40. 20 goal upgrade on Walters. (1 goal a game)
If Sturt stays on the park he should kick 30 + (1/2 a goal a game)
O'Driscoll back in the team, and kicking goals from wing (A decent upgrade on JoM)
Then we just need the rest to lift, especially the midfield. (1/2 a goal a game)

If we can find 2 goals a game, then we will be a top 4 scoring team in the comp.

PS - not sure if the Swans stats include finals. I expect they do.

AFL Stats - AFL.com.au

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Goal difference counts.

Swans were 2.9+and Freo 1.4+

What need is another 1.5+difference in goals.

By the way, Lions were 2.4+.

Also, Swans played 3 more games.

 

[DQ 4EVER]

Who killed your cat?

Jerry the Mouse

 

[Arcassius]

It's meaningful that Amiss is paired up with Pearce in the intra-clubs. Last season Treacy asked to be paired up against Peace and it paid dividends in his ability to work the man and get clear. If this pairing has even close to the same result (helping Amiss learn how to use his strength and get free when wrestling) - then it bodes well for the season

I think we'll see a big shift in output from Amiss this season

 

[Hamann188]

It's meaningful that Amiss is paired up with Pearce in the intra-clubs. Last season Treacy asked to be paired up against Peace and it paid dividends in his ability to work the man and get clear. If this pairing has even close to the same result (helping Amiss learn how to use his strength and get free when wrestling) - then it bodes well for the season

I think we'll see a big shift in output from Amiss this season

Agreed.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Interesting to compare the two midfields.

2013 v 2024

Sandi > Darcy
Fyfe - Serong
Mundy > Brayshaw
Barlow < Young
Hill > Johnson
Mzungu - Sharp
Crowley > Fyfe
Neale > ODriscoll

Johnno and Dris break outs would really have a big impact on the team, probably more than improvement from any other players.

Hmm, interesting, I'd swap Fyfe/Serong and Mundy/Brayshaw signs around. No one on this list is 2013-2018 (non-injured Fyfe). Probably agree with the rest but given the club had it's best ever year om 2013, hopefully its more relevant comparing to 2025 in 9 months

 

[Purple Suit]

Interesting to compare the two midfields.

2013 v 2024

Sandi > Darcy
Fyfe - Serong
Mundy > Brayshaw
Barlow < Young
Hill > Johnson
Mzungu - Sharp
Crowley > Fyfe
Neale > ODriscoll

Johnno and Dris break outs would really have a big impact on the team, probably more than improvement from any other players.

Our 2013 team was better than our current team but it would be close vs 2025 Freo if things go right. The main difference being the top end of 2013 was brilliant but equally the bottom end of the 2013 was average and Ross squeezed them for every drop of juice. Our current team is balanced, will get better on all lines without adding players and we just got a big hit of match winner X factor. Exciting times.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Interesting to compare the two midfields.

2013 v 2024

Sandi > Darcy
Fyfe - Serong
Mundy > Brayshaw
Barlow < Young
Hill > Johnson
Mzungu - Sharp
Crowley > Fyfe
Neale > ODriscoll

Johnno and Dris break outs would really have a big impact on the team, probably more than improvement from any other players.

2013 v 2024 - (with bolton)

Pav > Treacy
Ballas > Switta
Walters = Bolton
Mayne < Amiss
Clarke < Jackson
Sutcliffe < Sturt

A bit harsh on Mayne, he was unbelieve in 2012,13 and 15.

I don't think we have the stars of 2013, but I think our depth is better.

We probably need 1 or 2 players to go from C grades, to B Graders, and a few of our A and B graders to go up another level this year to push for top 4 and a grand final.

 

[GingerDocker]

How about we do this 2013 v 2024 comparison when the latter are actually at their peak.

 

[poshman]

2013 v 2024 - (with bolton)

Pav > Treacy
Ballas > Switta
Walters = Bolton
Mayne < Amiss
Clarke < Jackson
Sutcliffe < Sturt

A bit harsh on Mayne, he was unbelieve in 2012,13 and 15.

I don't think we have the stars of 2013, but I think our depth is better.

We probably need 1 or 2 players to go from C grades, to B Graders, and a few of our A and B graders to go up another level this year to push for top 4 and a grand final.

I love Sonny and think his peak is equal to Bolton. He wasn’t quite there in 2013 though. Couple of years off it.