We're all pretty familiar on this board with the situation at the Lions, so let's have a look at this week's opponent, the Richmond Tigers.
Some points:
1/ Ninety percent probability we'll win the frees. The Tigers have won the free kick count only twice in their last 20 games.
2/ They haven't beaten us at the Gabba since 2019 which is 1/ half a decade ago, and 2/ when their side was at the peak of its period of success, a period which sadly for them can't be called a dynasty because they didn't threepeat. And this Richmond side is not as good as the 2019 version (see below).
3/ Firstly, we've got five ACLs. Having said that, Richmond's season has been cruelled by injuries to key players: first-choice midfield Prestia, Taranto, & Hopper have only played a game and a half together this season. Lynch is weeks away. Balta, Graham, Ross, Gibcus...there've been several rounds when they've had 10 or 12 of their top 18 out. Some are coming back but overall it's been a "bordelle de merde", as they say in French.
4/ Their defence has 14 flags between them and has given up an average 98 ppg in 2024. It looks like it's one season too many for Grimes. Balta's likely to play forward, who knows. But you'd have to say that Grimes, Broad, Short, Vlaustin, & Rioli is still a handy defence on paper, and new guy Browne has a good kick on him. Rebound 50's out of defence is the only stat where Richmond is above competition average.
Their midfield has lots of flags too of course, but Pickett's been awful this season. Bolton's had his moments, but not many and not consistently. Nobody is Dusty 2017-2020, not even Dustin Martin. Baker's beaten up and having to play out of position. Graham, Taranto, Hopper all injured. If McInerney goes alright against Nankervis - who is horribly out of form - then our mids have a field day. Probably will anyway.
Compared with their defence and midfield, without Lynch there are far fewer flags in their forwards, and it shows. Their scoring is down, their scoring shots are down, and their ratio of F50 entries to scores is 17th in the league.
Currently their tallest forward is 6-gamer Lefau at 195cm. For some reason Yze won't pick Ryan. New guy Campbell goes alright. Rioli Jr did his ankle this past weekend.
They've played 4 of the current top 8. It would have been five, but Carlton, laughably, managed to win themselves out of the eight on percentage.
Round zero Richmond got done by the Suns (Dimma's first game blah blah), then had some close ones - lost to Carlton by 5, lost to Port by 30 (but Port kicked 4 goals in the last ten minutes), beat top-of-the-ladder Sydney (their only win, & Sydney's only loss so far), lost to the Saints by 7 points (at Norwood Oval), and then the wheels fell off. They got spanked away at West Coast lol, and lost by 7 goals on Anzac Eve to Melbourne (who we beat easily in round five this season when we smashed them at the G and made them look ordinary).
Richmond were awful against Freo - only 16 clearances for the whole game, the fewest since 2010 - and they truly sucked last week against the Dogs.
Lions by ten goals.
Some points:
1/ Ninety percent probability we'll win the frees. The Tigers have won the free kick count only twice in their last 20 games.
2/ They haven't beaten us at the Gabba since 2019 which is 1/ half a decade ago, and 2/ when their side was at the peak of its period of success, a period which sadly for them can't be called a dynasty because they didn't threepeat. And this Richmond side is not as good as the 2019 version (see below).
3/ Firstly, we've got five ACLs. Having said that, Richmond's season has been cruelled by injuries to key players: first-choice midfield Prestia, Taranto, & Hopper have only played a game and a half together this season. Lynch is weeks away. Balta, Graham, Ross, Gibcus...there've been several rounds when they've had 10 or 12 of their top 18 out. Some are coming back but overall it's been a "bordelle de merde", as they say in French.
4/ Their defence has 14 flags between them and has given up an average 98 ppg in 2024. It looks like it's one season too many for Grimes. Balta's likely to play forward, who knows. But you'd have to say that Grimes, Broad, Short, Vlaustin, & Rioli is still a handy defence on paper, and new guy Browne has a good kick on him. Rebound 50's out of defence is the only stat where Richmond is above competition average.
Their midfield has lots of flags too of course, but Pickett's been awful this season. Bolton's had his moments, but not many and not consistently. Nobody is Dusty 2017-2020, not even Dustin Martin. Baker's beaten up and having to play out of position. Graham, Taranto, Hopper all injured. If McInerney goes alright against Nankervis - who is horribly out of form - then our mids have a field day. Probably will anyway.
Compared with their defence and midfield, without Lynch there are far fewer flags in their forwards, and it shows. Their scoring is down, their scoring shots are down, and their ratio of F50 entries to scores is 17th in the league.
Currently their tallest forward is 6-gamer Lefau at 195cm. For some reason Yze won't pick Ryan. New guy Campbell goes alright. Rioli Jr did his ankle this past weekend.
They've played 4 of the current top 8. It would have been five, but Carlton, laughably, managed to win themselves out of the eight on percentage.
Round zero Richmond got done by the Suns (Dimma's first game blah blah), then had some close ones - lost to Carlton by 5, lost to Port by 30 (but Port kicked 4 goals in the last ten minutes), beat top-of-the-ladder Sydney (their only win, & Sydney's only loss so far), lost to the Saints by 7 points (at Norwood Oval), and then the wheels fell off. They got spanked away at West Coast lol, and lost by 7 goals on Anzac Eve to Melbourne (who we beat easily in round five this season when we smashed them at the G and made them look ordinary).
Richmond were awful against Freo - only 16 clearances for the whole game, the fewest since 2010 - and they truly sucked last week against the Dogs.
Lions by ten goals.
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