Round 13 AFL

[IDIG]

Don't seem to see one started.. lots of interesting games this week.

Haw 1.55 v Ess 2.45
MCG (line 10.5)

BL 1.45 v Rich 2.75
Gabba (line 16.5)

Carl 1.65 v Freo 2.25
Etihad (line 7.5)

NM 1.37 v PA 3.12
Etihad (line 19.5)

WB 1.36 v WC 3.17
Subiaco (line 19.5)

I like Haw/BL/NM/WB at $4.21

 

[GoodesStuff]

Don't seem to see one started.. lots of interesting games this week.

Haw 1.55 v Ess 2.45
MCG (line 10.5)

BL 1.45 v Rich 2.75
Gabba (line 16.5)

Carl 1.65 v Freo 2.25
Etihad (line 7.5)

NM 1.37 v PA 3.12
Etihad (line 19.5)

WB 1.36 v WC 3.17
Subiaco (line 19.5)

I like Haw/BL/NM/WB at $4.21

Essendon have a great reent record against Hawthorn. If Hawthorn didnt smash Adelaide and Essendon get smashed by Geelong I think the odds would be a lot closer. Still, I think the bombers at 2.50+ is a good bet- dunno about the line, they are not a Sydney type team who will always be involved in close games.

Essendon WIN

The other game I like is Brisbane against Richmond. Lets face it, with or without power forwards the lions win this. They should be 1.20-1.25 IMO so will happily take the 1.45 on offer at this stage.

Brisbane WIN

 

[TheNextBigThing]

North should win and win well, but I wouldn't back us at a $1.37 against anyone

 

[Dr Awkward]

I think there is some value for Essendon and Port, but I need to wait to see the teams.

 

[Lakey91]

I also think freo are pretty good value too - lets not forget they've had a very good year and that they've only lost to two solid teams in recent weeks (Adelaide when they were fired up for Edwards and Saints last week). And I reckon Port shouldnt be undermined as well - might take Norths 1-39.

Id recommend loading up on Collingwood too at 1.60ish. Swans have lost the last 8 against them, by an average margin of 29 points, including an average margin of 21 poinst when they have played in sydney (4/8 of those games). Against the good teams this year, we have also struggled:

Lost to Freo by 37
Lost to WB by 38
Lost to Geelong by 67

Pies seem a solid option for a few multi's IMO, and also at 1-39.

 

[crow10]

melbourne at 2.30 maybe a shot? i know their record at AAMI is terrible but the crows have been deplorable

 

[unsheathed]

Bulldogs have won only 2 of their last 10 vs West Coast at Subi. With their up and down form they would seem too much of a risk. They seem to choke on their "should win" games. WC played fairly well against Geelong a couple of weeks ago for 3 quarters and with Woosha under the pump I imagine they'll put in at home. Maybe WC at the + line?

 

[captain peanut]

pies at around the 1.65 mark are good value v swans. have well and truly had the swans measure in recent times. line of -8.5 shouldn't present too much of an issue either

 

[happy_punter]

Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

Take your pick. will post teams when announced.

Can select more than one.

 

[GoesBangFrom50]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

I am a big Hawks HATER but do like them against the Dons this week. I know the recent history between the 2 teams suggests an Essendon win but I think that current form is more important and the Hawks are playing better.

*Note that I liked the Hawks against the Bombers last year in a Friday night game and it cost me $500 (in a syndicate) LOL

 

[McCrann]

The Brisbane Lions haven't beaten Richmond at the Gabba since 2004.

Also, Brisbane Lions have never done "The Double" over Richmond in their history.

Tigers (+16.5) is a very good option IMO.

 

[flea29]

The Brisbane Lions haven't beaten Richmond at the Gabba since 2004.

Also, Brisbane Lions have never done "The Double" over Richmond in their history.

Tigers (+16.5) is a very good option IMO.

How about these stats:
Lions have won 4 of the last 6 matches at the Gabba between these 2 teams.
Not sure what "the double" has got to do with this match but these 2 teams have only ever played "the double" 3 times in their history, including a "triple" in 2001 when the Lions went 2/3
The record between these teams stands 8-1-8
Damien Hardwick has never coached a win against the Lions

Not having a go McCrann, just showing stats can easily be manipulated.

FWIW I reckon the Tiges are a huge show & will probably take them in Sportingbet LMS

 

[unsheathed]

Richmond haven't played Brisbane at the Gabba since 2006. This is one game where I wouldn't take much notice of trends. Plus trends are meant to be broken, see Carlton vs St Kilda this year.

The key question would be, can the Lions shut down Reiwoldt? Apparently WC played him pretty loose last week, I imagine he would have a couple of Lions on him this week. I'm tending towards Brisbane. The tiges have won two in a row, the "let down" theory might be applicable here and the Lions are 4 wins 2 losses at the Gabba this year.

 

[Asahi]

Richmond haven't played Brisbane at the Gabba since 2006. This is one game where I wouldn't take much notice of trends. Plus trends are meant to be broken, see Carlton vs St Kilda this year.

The key question would be, can the Lions shut down Reiwoldt? Apparently WC played him pretty loose last week, I imagine he would have a couple of Lions on him this week. I'm tending towards Brisbane. The tiges have won two in a row, the "let down" theory might be applicable here and the Lions are 4 wins 2 losses at the Gabba this year.

My best bet of the week is,

Port to win $3.3 $500 bet placed
Port @ line +20.5 $750 bet placed

Good luck boys!

 

[jsmoove]

ess under 39.5
freo under 39.5
dogs line -18.5
$20 @16.98
=339.60

ess line +12.5
freo under 39.5
dogs over 15.5
$20 @ 9.93
=198.60

Hawks are still no good neoither are the dons but essendons style of play should see them win.
Still dont rate carlton even though freo in melborune are still a worry.
Doggies, as overated as i think they are should comfotably beat the coast but the weagles will be fired up to redeem them selves from last week bit wary.

good luck all

 

[adii_7]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

essendon 60+ this time.

they cant match up on us. we have roughnut covered, franklin will run riot again probally kick 11 and we will still win by 10 goals.

welsh the crab to goto hodge and shut him down, zaharakis to kick 6, winderlich to have 30's and gumbleton to kick 4, davey to kick 3, stanton to kick 3. Jetta BOG

 

[adii_7]

ess over 15.5

freo over 15.5

 

[happy_punter]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

essendon 60+ this time.

they cant match up on us. we have roughnut covered, franklin will run riot again probally kick 11 and we will still win by 10 goals.

welsh the crab to goto hodge and shut him down, zaharakis to kick 6, winderlich to have 30's and gumbleton to kick 4, davey to kick 3, stanton to kick 3. Jetta BOG

which bookie do you work for?

 

[adii_7]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

which bookie do you work for?

essendon 60+ get on please.

 

[unsheathed]

My best bet of the week is,

Port to win $3.3 $500 bet placed
Port @ line +20.5 $750 bet placed

Good luck boys!

What's your thinking mate? You've had a good last couple of weeks.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

which bookie do you work for?

I dont think its such a bad bet. I think the $9.00 on offer for 40+ is much more realistic though.

Ill be on the bombers @ 2.55

 

[adii_7]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

I dont think its such a bad bet. I think the $9.00 on offer for 40+ is much more realistic though.

Ill be on the bombers @ 2.55

no dempsey and we lack abit of pace outside the forward line

i dont know about 40+ anymore.

 

[Asahi]

What's your thinking mate? You've had a good last couple of weeks.

Thanks mate, My sources tell me that port have made this there final!
And also north WILL have a let down after last friday night!
I think port will win!

 

[happy_punter]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Thomas Murphy
HB: Grant Birchall, Ben Stratton, Rick Ladson
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Ryan Schoenmakers
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Xavier Ellis, Beau Muston, Wayde Skipper, Clinton Young
Emg: Carl Peterson, Liam Shiels, Brendan Whitecross

In: Bateman, Young
Out: Brendan Whitecross, Carl Peterson

vs


Essendon
B: Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker, Henry Slattery
HB: Heath Hocking, Tayte Pears, Mark McVeigh
C: Jarrod Atkinson, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton
HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Leroy Jetta
F: David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley, Sam Lonergan
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Jason Winderlich, Jake Melksham
I/C: Brent Prismall, Andrew Welsh, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Tom Bellchambers
Emg: David Myers, Bachar Houli, Courtenay Dempsey

In: Prismall, Atkinson, Hooker
Out: Ricky Dyson , Courtenay Dempsey , David Myers

 

[adii_7]

Re: Friday night footy-Hawks vs Bombers

good petersons out.

would prefer : longeran out Dempsey in.

o well.

ess by 45