Trades Round 18 Trades

[Jason Derulo]

While I agree with the general principle of upgrading rookies first, I think at this stage you've got to look at the upcoming fixtures.

There are only 6 rounds left, so the difference between a #1 and #6 in a position may only be a matter of 60 points (i.e. 10 points per game).

But we know that averages are just that. We also have 17 rounds of data on what teams tend to be good to play against for fantasy purposes. Now is the time to exploit that data to give the edge on your final trade ins (and outs).

Ahern's next games are against Collingwood, West Coast, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Adelaide and St Kilda. Collingwood and Adelaide have proven to be fantasy lands of milk and honey for midfield opponents this year, and Saints and Brisbane also tend to concede some big points. Whether Ahern cashes in is another question, but it may be safe to assume that his average will rise with the tide, so to speak.

Ahern may not score 100+, but if he is able to average 80 over the last 6, then you need to weigh up whether upgrading him to someone who may average 95 (a 90 point net gain over 6 weeks) is worth the $300k it'd cost to upgrade him (and the opportunity cost of those downgrade trade/s).

All that to say, the closer we get to the end of the season, the less the general principles apply because there are less rounds left. It really comes down heavily to form and opponents (and luck, of course).

Good point but taking matchups into account port have gws, dogs and crows which are all good matchups for mids and with rocky capable of 120+

As you said we have data that shows ahern can go 30-40 and despite him playing a better role now (I think) a ben jacobs return seems imminent which would see his points drop probably.

At the end of the day you could research for hours and something may happen for whatever reason e.g. rocky returning to brisbane form or scoring 80's and ahern maintaining 75-90 or going back to back 40's. In a situation like this you have to back yourself to choose a player. Maybe the money from rocky could get you macrae who may average 140 from here.

 

[Jason Derulo]

Liam ryan -> Fergus or Baker if named
Ridley -> O'riordan

273k in the bank for phillips or ahern to macrae next week and my team will be complete.
Now, who to field out of phillips and ahern.....

 

[Joao]

I know it goes against the accepted wisdom but...

Crisp -> Morgan
Gray -> Smith

Then next week

Parker -> Macrae
Walters -> Heeney

Should be able to cash out Ahern the week after to get an actual defender in. The only good defenders I don't have are Yeo and Lloyd and they are too expensive and Crisp is losing value.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Not sure whether to grab Whitfield or danger

 

[JADED]

Not sure whether to grab Whitfield or danger

Dangerfield, it's been pretty hard to fine decent forwards this year, and DPP have just served one up.
After that 151, he likely won't get any cheaper than he is now.
Enjoy.

 

[samFFC]

Dangerfield, it's been pretty hard to fine decent forwards this year, and DPP have just served one up.
After that 151, he likely won't get any cheaper than he is now.
Enjoy.

Yep.
My bottom 5 became a bit clearer this weekend

1. Sauce
2. Savage
3. De Goey
4. Walters
5. Rocky

I think Wingard is safe keeper now.

Having said that, Jacobs to Grundy still costs 224k (though down from 300k recently). With Grundy falling another 10-20k per week, and Jacobs rising 5-10k per week, it may be sub 200k next week.
No clear way to do the trade this week with my current bench.

With Dangerfield on offer I think I have to grab him for either of those bottom three. Tempted to use Rocky and save the extra cash but think De Goey will be the smart play. Probably downgrade OMac this week to fund it.

 

[JADED]

Fritsch to Dangerfield feels harsh with Ahern sitting onfield at M6, but Fritz has had a month of 70's and is losing cash.

 

[PAFC27]

Hmm, Heppell or Danger? Who will average more from here...

 

[yogibbear]

Fritsch -> Riordan
Nicnat -> Goldstein

Shift Ahern to on the ground for 1 week.

Ready to pounce on Ahern -> Macrae next week and swing Danger fwd.

 

[Zevon]

Gowers -> O'Riordan via DPP
De Goey -> Danger

Leaves enough in the kitty to do another up/down next week and turn an underperforming mid into Crae.

 

[Corby_4]

Ballard > O'Riordan via DPP
Telly > Danger
0k left

 

[Andrew Birch]

Not sure if these trades are worth it or are there better options that I'm not seeing?

Hurn > Heeney (via Sicily)
Adams > E Curnow

pre-trades (bank 40k)

 

[bl4ke]

Not sure if these trades are worth it or are there better options that I'm not seeing?

Hurn > Heeney (via Sicily)
Adams > E Curnow

pre-trades (bank 40k)
View attachment 528227

Why trade hurn?

Maybe Spargo > O'Riordan via Mihocek DPP. Then Adams > Macrae

 

[Corby_4]

Why trade hurn?

Maybe Spargo > O'Riordan via Mihocek DPP. Then Adams > Macrae

In's and out's are back to front.
Heeney out is a massive call.

 

[bl4ke]

In's and out's are back to front.
Heeney out is a massive call.

Haha jesus

Andrew Birch hit that reverse trades button and lets try again

 

[Andrew Birch]

Why trade hurn?

Maybe Spargo > O'Riordan via Mihocek DPP. Then Adams > Macrae

Do you think Hurn will score more from here on than Heeney?

 

[bl4ke]

Do you think Hurn will score more from here on than Heeney?

It will be pretty close yeah

 

[Andrew Birch]

In's and out's are back to front.
Heeney out is a massive call.

They are?

 

[Andrew Birch]

Maybe Spargo > O'Riordan via Mihocek DPP. Then Adams > Macrae

I like this option a lot. Also leaves me 64k in the bank to do another upgrade the following week.

Pretty handy midfield. Can focus on improving the other lines now.

 

[Corby_4]

They are?

Yeah usually the players traded out are listed first.
i.e
Curnow > Adams for example.

 

[Andrew Birch]

Yeah usually the players traded out are listed first.
i.e
Curnow > Adams for example.

But I was trading Adams OUT and Curnow IN
Adams > Curnow

Screenshot of team was marked "pre-trades"

 

[Corby_4]

But I was trading Adams OUT and Curnow IN
Adams > Curnow

Screenshot of team was marked "pre-trades"

My mistake.
I assumed your screenshot was post-trades.
Fuzz brain Monday in progress.

 

[Quazza]

Guessing Gray out and swinging danger forward.

Any budget mids floating around atm ? Looking around 600-650k

 

[Joao]

Guessing Gray out and swinging danger forward.

Any budget mids floating around atm ? Looking around 600-650k

Heppell, Curnow or Adams (in that order IMO).

Possibly the Chad.

 

[Andrew Birch]

Guessing Gray out and swinging danger forward.

Any budget mids floating around atm ? Looking around 600-650k

Wait ..wat...Dangers a fwd DPP now? **** I hadn't even noticed that.