- Mar 12, 2003
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- Brisbane
Match Of The Round comes to the Gabba, and it comes to the Sunday 1:10 timeslot for the first time in, well, forever probably. Two of the form teams in the comp - with a win the Swans tighten their already vice-like grip on the minor premiership, while the Lions will in all likelihood need to win simply to stay in the top 4, with Carlton and Geelong both favoured to win on the weekend.
Conditions
Our Victorian friends will no doubt chuckle, but it has been pretty cool this week, with the mercury barely getting above 20 despite glorious blue and sunny skies. We can expect more of the same on Sunday, with a top of 21 expected, and no rain on the horizon until at least this time next week.
With minimal wind expected, the biggest issue for the players will be the sun in the eyes of the forwards at the school end (left of screen), or midfielders and defenders attempting inside 50 entries to the western end (right of screen). Apart from that, perfect conditions for footy.
Teams
Obviously our team makeup is still a bit up in the air with Charlie Cameron's appeal to be heard tomorrow night. Assuming we aren't able to overturn the tribunal's decision, I'd like to see Harry Sharp come in for him. This causes several knock-on effects:
Logan Morris has been a bit quieter in the last couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see whether we stick with him again. This may be an opportunity to bring Dev into the team and play a smaller forward line, with Cam Rayner taking up the slack of any third tall forward role.
Down the other end, at this stage we're expecting Starce and Noah to be available for selection. I'd be bringing Starce straight back into the team in place of Conor McKenna. I think we can all agree Conor has been disappointing this season so far, and while the match committee has shown a willingness to stick with players through form slumps, we can't afford to be carrying anyone this Sunday, and Shadeau Brain showed on Sunday he has what it takes to step up to the level required. He defended better than Conor, he showed greater courage than Conor, he made better decisions than Conor, and he executed better than Conor. Tick, tick, tick, tick. Hopefully Conor is able to show us all what he can do at VFL level this weekend.
If Starce isn't right, Noah comes in for him. If neither are right, McKenna gets a reprieve.
I'm a bit undecided on the sub. Obviously Bruce had the vest on Sunday, but whether we go that way again or not is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned. I don't think it should be Logan one way or the other.
I'm less well versed in the Swans line-up, but obviously Heeney comes in, and he may be a straight swap (with a bit of shuffling) for Justin McInerney who hurt his knee against North on Saturday. I see Harry Cunningham is listed as a "test" returning from a hamstring injury, and whether he comes straight back in may be influenced by the result of Charlie's appeal tomorrow night.
We can expect extended squads at 6:20 tomorrow night, with 23's announced Friday at 5pm, and final teams (including the sub) posted 12:10pm Sunday.
Matchups
These kind of don't mean as much as they used to, with increased use of interchange and zone/rolling defences meaning the one-on-one matchups are changing all the time. That said, the Swans have shown a willingness to deploy two, three, or even more tags at any point in time should the situation warrant it.
Plenty of smoke and mirrors from Horse already this week, but I think we can safely say that someone, probably James Jordon, will get the job on Lachie Neale, and I'd expect someone like Robbie Fox to go to Dayne Zorko in an attempt to shut down his run off half back. They also have James Rowbottom, who I can see going to someone like Hugh McCluggage if he is impacting the game forward of centre.
I know there's a sentiment here about how we are a better team when we simply play our own game and don't really worry about the opposition, but I absolutely think we need to fight fire with fire here. I'd be sending Dunkley to Heeney, who will be prepared to run with Heeney if he goes forward, and will be able to match Heeney overhead.
Berry to Warner. Warner will have covered Berry for pace, but Warner has everyone covered for pace. If Berry can reproduce his game on Bontempelli he can still be influential going back the other way. Warner comes across as a bit of a smart-alec... he strikes me as the kind of guy Berry might be able to get under the skin of, a bit like Horne-Francis and Harley Reid. We saw Bez get a lot of free kicks against the Bulldogs - this could be pivotal in the clearance battle, particularly at centre bounces.
I'm sending Sharp to Gulden. Gulden is one of the best runners in the comp and we should be using our best runner to go with him. Even if he spends most of the day just covering grass, if he is forcing Sydney down the field in straight lines, that's a win for us.
Finally, Ah Chee on Blakey in a defensive role. We can't let him run around the back of a team mate in static play for the quick handball and allow him to break through the middle of the ground. In truth, this will need to be a whole-of-front-6 job, similar to the jobs we've been able to do on Adam Saad in the past. We've proven we have the discipline to do it - we need to pull this attitude out on Sunday.
At the ends, maybe Joyce to Amartey to start with, Lester to McDonald and Andrews to McLean. They're all a similar size though so they're probably interchangeable to tell the truth, depending on who's on top at various stages. One of them may even get a defensive job on Harris Andrews. Harris has a height advantage on basically all of them, so we will probably just cop whoever comes his way and roll the others around as need be.
Their small forwards generally cause more concern, with Papley, as well as their midfield regularly hitting the scoreboard. I think we can expect Starce to get Papley as has happened in recent years. If Starce doesn't play, I'd give Noah first crack, with Wilmot on standby after he did a pretty admirable job on Rankine.
In our forward line, we have a pretty considerable size advantage, which we will need to take full toll of. McCartin is 194cm so he has to play on Joe or Eric... Blakey is 196 but if we send Ah Chee to him, it has the potential to be a battle of wills as to who "gets" to play on who. Ultimately they will probably try to send Blakey to the other of Joe and Eric, with the intention of running off them, and that leaves Dane Rampe on Logan Morris, who will have Rampe covered for size but not experience.
I can see us potentially having the edge man for man at both ends of the ground, making the midfield battle pretty vital.
Strategy
Looking at recent weeks, despite losing 2 of their last 3, there are a number of areas the Swans excel at where we have been struggling.
Centre bounces
This has been driven by Brodie Grundy, where the Swans have excelled with their hitouts to advantage, while we tend to allow this a little too much. So much will rest on Oscar's shoulders, not necessarily to win the hitout, but to prevent Grundy from being able to tap it down a team mate's throat. Sydney have a strong record at centre clearances, and an equally strong record scoring from them, so there's a huge potential here for us to be opened up, particularly by runs of consecutive goals. We will probably do well to change our look pretty regularly, whether that be with personnel or our setup. We can't afford to let Sydney get comfortable with what we are doing in there.
Defence
This one is pretty obvious and it's something we've all been across in recent weeks, and even Fages has mentioned it needs to improve, despite our winning streak. In recent weeks we've allowed our opposition more shots per inside 50 than any other team, and Sydney have taken more shots per inside 50 than any other team. So it's a perfect storm for us to be pretty leaky if we can't get good pressure on their delivery further afield.
Rebound
To the surprise of probably nobody, we leak scores from our defensive half (#16) while the Swans are fantastic in scoring from their back half (#3). This makes the job on Blakey, whoever gets it, absolutely critical.
It's not all bad news though. We do have openings of our own that we can exploit.
Aerial contests
We take the most contested marks in the game, and we are also #1 in the comp for not conceding intercept marks. Sydney struggle in both these aspects, so despite our preference to control possession via uncontested marks between the arcs, we may see more long kicking down the line to packs on Sunday. If Oscar can occupy Grundy and allow Hipwood and Daniher one on ones forward of the ball, this could go a long way to helping us get a score on the board.
Rebound
Yep, the rebound is a double edged sword. The Swans are great scoring from their back half. But they are also the #13 kicking efficiency team in the comp, and #13 in the comp for conceding points from turnover, while we are #3 in the comp for scoring from turnovers. If we can force them to kick the ball coming out of defence, rather than running and gunning with handball, we can get them on turnover and rebound ourselves.
Stoppages
The Swans are pretty deadly from centre clearances. They're not quite as potent around the ground though. The key will be to block up their exits, Oscar to engage Grundy, cover Heeney, Warner and Gulden, and keep the ball away from them. Easy right?
Quarter by quarter (thanks to Tom14!)
I make much of our last quarters, and how stinky they are. But we have a massive opportunity to really stick our flag in the ground on Sunday and play the game on our terms.
We are the best 1st quarter team in the comp, with a % of 165.5. Sydney on the other hand have a 1st quarter % of 93.8, which ranks them #12 in the comp. Much has been made of Sydney's slow starts this season, but even so they are yet to come up against us, the best 1st quarter team in the comp. This is a massive opportunity for us to cash in - if we can get out to a 30 or 40 point lead by quarter time, you would think this will be hard to reel in, no matter who we're playing.
We might need a lead that size though. The Swans are #1 in 2nd quarters (204.8%), #1 in 3rd quarters (174.7%) and #2 in last quarters (134.8%).
By comparison, we are #3 in 2nd quarters (126.4%), #9 in 3rd quarters (104.8%) and #14 in last quarters (93.6%).
The Swans may give us a hot iron. We'll need to strike, early and often.
The Verdict
I can see this being a bit of a shootout - we could even see both teams post 3 figures. To be fair, I can't see us winning any other way. We're likely to concede a score so we will need to be clinical when we get it and make the most of our chances, both generating shots at goal and converting accurately. If we can nullify their centre clearances, and slow their ball movement from back half, we go a long long way to winning the game.
Ultimately though, I can see the Swans getting slightly cleaner scoring opportunities, particularly in open play, and that will probably be the difference.
Brisbane 102
Sydney 115
Conditions
Our Victorian friends will no doubt chuckle, but it has been pretty cool this week, with the mercury barely getting above 20 despite glorious blue and sunny skies. We can expect more of the same on Sunday, with a top of 21 expected, and no rain on the horizon until at least this time next week.
With minimal wind expected, the biggest issue for the players will be the sun in the eyes of the forwards at the school end (left of screen), or midfielders and defenders attempting inside 50 entries to the western end (right of screen). Apart from that, perfect conditions for footy.
Teams
Obviously our team makeup is still a bit up in the air with Charlie Cameron's appeal to be heard tomorrow night. Assuming we aren't able to overturn the tribunal's decision, I'd like to see Harry Sharp come in for him. This causes several knock-on effects:
- It allows Jarrod Berry to spend more time in at centre bounces and as an inside midfielder around the ground, where I believe we've seen his best footy this year; and
- We can therefore allow Zac Bailey to spend more time forward, essentially (ideally) reprising the role Charlie would normally play. The challenge here will be whether his defensive intent is to the level Charlie displays at his best. A more conservative option might be to bring in Dev Robertson to help provide that defensive pressure in our forward line. But I feel this is a game that will need to be won, not saved, and I'd be plumping for Harry at this stage.
Logan Morris has been a bit quieter in the last couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see whether we stick with him again. This may be an opportunity to bring Dev into the team and play a smaller forward line, with Cam Rayner taking up the slack of any third tall forward role.
Down the other end, at this stage we're expecting Starce and Noah to be available for selection. I'd be bringing Starce straight back into the team in place of Conor McKenna. I think we can all agree Conor has been disappointing this season so far, and while the match committee has shown a willingness to stick with players through form slumps, we can't afford to be carrying anyone this Sunday, and Shadeau Brain showed on Sunday he has what it takes to step up to the level required. He defended better than Conor, he showed greater courage than Conor, he made better decisions than Conor, and he executed better than Conor. Tick, tick, tick, tick. Hopefully Conor is able to show us all what he can do at VFL level this weekend.
If Starce isn't right, Noah comes in for him. If neither are right, McKenna gets a reprieve.
I'm a bit undecided on the sub. Obviously Bruce had the vest on Sunday, but whether we go that way again or not is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned. I don't think it should be Logan one way or the other.
I'm less well versed in the Swans line-up, but obviously Heeney comes in, and he may be a straight swap (with a bit of shuffling) for Justin McInerney who hurt his knee against North on Saturday. I see Harry Cunningham is listed as a "test" returning from a hamstring injury, and whether he comes straight back in may be influenced by the result of Charlie's appeal tomorrow night.
We can expect extended squads at 6:20 tomorrow night, with 23's announced Friday at 5pm, and final teams (including the sub) posted 12:10pm Sunday.
Matchups
These kind of don't mean as much as they used to, with increased use of interchange and zone/rolling defences meaning the one-on-one matchups are changing all the time. That said, the Swans have shown a willingness to deploy two, three, or even more tags at any point in time should the situation warrant it.
Plenty of smoke and mirrors from Horse already this week, but I think we can safely say that someone, probably James Jordon, will get the job on Lachie Neale, and I'd expect someone like Robbie Fox to go to Dayne Zorko in an attempt to shut down his run off half back. They also have James Rowbottom, who I can see going to someone like Hugh McCluggage if he is impacting the game forward of centre.
I know there's a sentiment here about how we are a better team when we simply play our own game and don't really worry about the opposition, but I absolutely think we need to fight fire with fire here. I'd be sending Dunkley to Heeney, who will be prepared to run with Heeney if he goes forward, and will be able to match Heeney overhead.
Berry to Warner. Warner will have covered Berry for pace, but Warner has everyone covered for pace. If Berry can reproduce his game on Bontempelli he can still be influential going back the other way. Warner comes across as a bit of a smart-alec... he strikes me as the kind of guy Berry might be able to get under the skin of, a bit like Horne-Francis and Harley Reid. We saw Bez get a lot of free kicks against the Bulldogs - this could be pivotal in the clearance battle, particularly at centre bounces.
I'm sending Sharp to Gulden. Gulden is one of the best runners in the comp and we should be using our best runner to go with him. Even if he spends most of the day just covering grass, if he is forcing Sydney down the field in straight lines, that's a win for us.
Finally, Ah Chee on Blakey in a defensive role. We can't let him run around the back of a team mate in static play for the quick handball and allow him to break through the middle of the ground. In truth, this will need to be a whole-of-front-6 job, similar to the jobs we've been able to do on Adam Saad in the past. We've proven we have the discipline to do it - we need to pull this attitude out on Sunday.
At the ends, maybe Joyce to Amartey to start with, Lester to McDonald and Andrews to McLean. They're all a similar size though so they're probably interchangeable to tell the truth, depending on who's on top at various stages. One of them may even get a defensive job on Harris Andrews. Harris has a height advantage on basically all of them, so we will probably just cop whoever comes his way and roll the others around as need be.
Their small forwards generally cause more concern, with Papley, as well as their midfield regularly hitting the scoreboard. I think we can expect Starce to get Papley as has happened in recent years. If Starce doesn't play, I'd give Noah first crack, with Wilmot on standby after he did a pretty admirable job on Rankine.
In our forward line, we have a pretty considerable size advantage, which we will need to take full toll of. McCartin is 194cm so he has to play on Joe or Eric... Blakey is 196 but if we send Ah Chee to him, it has the potential to be a battle of wills as to who "gets" to play on who. Ultimately they will probably try to send Blakey to the other of Joe and Eric, with the intention of running off them, and that leaves Dane Rampe on Logan Morris, who will have Rampe covered for size but not experience.
I can see us potentially having the edge man for man at both ends of the ground, making the midfield battle pretty vital.
Strategy
Looking at recent weeks, despite losing 2 of their last 3, there are a number of areas the Swans excel at where we have been struggling.
Centre bounces
This has been driven by Brodie Grundy, where the Swans have excelled with their hitouts to advantage, while we tend to allow this a little too much. So much will rest on Oscar's shoulders, not necessarily to win the hitout, but to prevent Grundy from being able to tap it down a team mate's throat. Sydney have a strong record at centre clearances, and an equally strong record scoring from them, so there's a huge potential here for us to be opened up, particularly by runs of consecutive goals. We will probably do well to change our look pretty regularly, whether that be with personnel or our setup. We can't afford to let Sydney get comfortable with what we are doing in there.
Defence
This one is pretty obvious and it's something we've all been across in recent weeks, and even Fages has mentioned it needs to improve, despite our winning streak. In recent weeks we've allowed our opposition more shots per inside 50 than any other team, and Sydney have taken more shots per inside 50 than any other team. So it's a perfect storm for us to be pretty leaky if we can't get good pressure on their delivery further afield.
Rebound
To the surprise of probably nobody, we leak scores from our defensive half (#16) while the Swans are fantastic in scoring from their back half (#3). This makes the job on Blakey, whoever gets it, absolutely critical.
It's not all bad news though. We do have openings of our own that we can exploit.
Aerial contests
We take the most contested marks in the game, and we are also #1 in the comp for not conceding intercept marks. Sydney struggle in both these aspects, so despite our preference to control possession via uncontested marks between the arcs, we may see more long kicking down the line to packs on Sunday. If Oscar can occupy Grundy and allow Hipwood and Daniher one on ones forward of the ball, this could go a long way to helping us get a score on the board.
Rebound
Yep, the rebound is a double edged sword. The Swans are great scoring from their back half. But they are also the #13 kicking efficiency team in the comp, and #13 in the comp for conceding points from turnover, while we are #3 in the comp for scoring from turnovers. If we can force them to kick the ball coming out of defence, rather than running and gunning with handball, we can get them on turnover and rebound ourselves.
Stoppages
The Swans are pretty deadly from centre clearances. They're not quite as potent around the ground though. The key will be to block up their exits, Oscar to engage Grundy, cover Heeney, Warner and Gulden, and keep the ball away from them. Easy right?
Quarter by quarter (thanks to Tom14!)
I make much of our last quarters, and how stinky they are. But we have a massive opportunity to really stick our flag in the ground on Sunday and play the game on our terms.
We are the best 1st quarter team in the comp, with a % of 165.5. Sydney on the other hand have a 1st quarter % of 93.8, which ranks them #12 in the comp. Much has been made of Sydney's slow starts this season, but even so they are yet to come up against us, the best 1st quarter team in the comp. This is a massive opportunity for us to cash in - if we can get out to a 30 or 40 point lead by quarter time, you would think this will be hard to reel in, no matter who we're playing.
We might need a lead that size though. The Swans are #1 in 2nd quarters (204.8%), #1 in 3rd quarters (174.7%) and #2 in last quarters (134.8%).
By comparison, we are #3 in 2nd quarters (126.4%), #9 in 3rd quarters (104.8%) and #14 in last quarters (93.6%).
The Swans may give us a hot iron. We'll need to strike, early and often.
The Verdict
I can see this being a bit of a shootout - we could even see both teams post 3 figures. To be fair, I can't see us winning any other way. We're likely to concede a score so we will need to be clinical when we get it and make the most of our chances, both generating shots at goal and converting accurately. If we can nullify their centre clearances, and slow their ball movement from back half, we go a long long way to winning the game.
Ultimately though, I can see the Swans getting slightly cleaner scoring opportunities, particularly in open play, and that will probably be the difference.
Brisbane 102
Sydney 115
.
