eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Sydney: Sydney had a tight win against Adelaide, using the centre corridor to great effect going forward. Luke Parker continued on his merry way with 30 disposals and 12 clearances whilst Oliver Florent stepped up as well with 21 disposals, 6 clearances and 5 inside 50's. Isaac Heeney was a feature inside 50 with 4 goals too.
Essendon: The Dons flew out to a 4 goal lead early, but were pegged back late to record a one goal win. Dylan Shiel was fantastic, having 35 disposals and 9 clearances, 6 from a centre bounce, whilst Jacob Townsend was excellent forward of centre with 3 goals in the first half. Adam Saad was also a feature with 28 disposals and 481 metres gained for the game.
Head to Head (last 5)
Sydney 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Sydney: 1W 0L
Essendon: 1W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Sydney: $1.72
Essendon: $2.10
Line: 4.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Sydney vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Patrick Ambrose - Adam Saad
F: Will Hayward - Isaac Heeney - Tom Papley
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Nick Blakey - Tom McCartin - Sam Gray
C: Tom Cutler - Devon Smith - Kyle Langford
C: Harry Cuningham - Josh Kennedy - Lewis Taylor
HF: Jacob Townsend - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
HB: Callum Mills - Aliir Aliir - Jordan Dawson
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Jake Stringer
B: Jake Lloyd - Kaiden Brand - Dane Rampe
R: Tom Bellchambers - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Shiel
R: Sam Naismith - Luke Parker - George Hewett
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Andrew McGrath - David Zaharakis
I: Oliver Florent - James Rowbottom - Colin O'Riordan - Justin McInerney
Sydney in: George Hewett; Out: Ben Ronke (inj)
Essendon in: Shaun McKernan, Conor McKenna, Patrick Ambrose, Cale Hooker; Out: Jayden Laverde, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Matthew Guelfi (all omit), Orazio Fantasia (quad)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Sydney conceded the second most inside 50's on average but were good at repelling attacks when it went in, only conceding a goal 19.8 % of the time it entered their back 50. Essendon will be happy about the delay in this regard, meaning the likes of Cale Hooker can come back, the tall bomber likely to be manned by Tom McCartin who was forced to play forward due to a lack of options in round 1, meaning that Jake Stringer is more likely to get attention from Dane Rampe rather than Aliir Aliir. Jacob Townsend could prove to be a handful for Jake Lloyd as well, after 3 first half goals in round 1.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall in terms of differential, whereas Sydney have fallen off a cliff in this particular area in recent years, finishing 17th for this particular stat last season. Essendon can really ram home here with the return of Devon Smith to the midfield mix in addition to Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett, whilst Sydney will be looking towards their major inside duo of Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker to dominate in this particular field, whilst Oliver Florent was dynamic in this area round 1 and George Hewett will renew acquaintances with Shiel, who has a torrid time shaking off his particular tag. On the outside, Sydney were the second worst team in the comp in terms of Inside 50 differential, losing the count by an average of nearly 9 per game, so Essendon's wings of Will Snelling, Kyle Langford and new recruit Tom Cutler will be licking their lips at the prospect, the three outside midfielders of Lewis Taylor, Harry Cunningham and Justin McInerney barely playing together before. Rucks wise, it's two big, not very mobile, tap technicians in Sam Naismith and Tom Bellchambers, although Naismith tends to throw his weight around a bit more than Bellchambers.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Sydney's forward line was relatively strong in 2019, kicking a goal 23.6% of the time it entered their forward 50. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Both teams have returning players that wouldn't have been available if COVID-19 hadn't struck, Sydney were likely to be without Lance Franklin and Sam Reid whilst the Dons would have been missing Patrick Ambrose, who will be Franklin's likely match up. Isaac Heeney will probably receive attention from Michael Hurley whilst Jordan Ridley and Aaron Francis probably go head-to-head with Nick Blakey and Sam Reid respectively. Adam Saad kept Tom Papley to 1 goal in each of the meetings last year, and will be keen to do so again whilst Mason Redman probably covers Sam Gray in an interesting tussle.
X-Factor Player
Will Hayward is a giant tease at times, he could be something seriously special if it all came together. He's mercurial and can kick a goal, but soon he needs to become that 30+ goal a year forward we all know he can be.
Key stat
Sydney: Inside 50's. They went 4-11 when losing the inside 50 count last year. 3-4 when they won. Only Gold Coast had a worse I50 differential last year
Essendon: Handball metres gained. It's been a feature of Richmond the past 3 years and it seems to have been implemented at Essendon to good effect over the pre-season.
Tip
With no rhyme or reason I'm backing us in, Dons by 27
Sydney: Sydney had a tight win against Adelaide, using the centre corridor to great effect going forward. Luke Parker continued on his merry way with 30 disposals and 12 clearances whilst Oliver Florent stepped up as well with 21 disposals, 6 clearances and 5 inside 50's. Isaac Heeney was a feature inside 50 with 4 goals too.
Essendon: The Dons flew out to a 4 goal lead early, but were pegged back late to record a one goal win. Dylan Shiel was fantastic, having 35 disposals and 9 clearances, 6 from a centre bounce, whilst Jacob Townsend was excellent forward of centre with 3 goals in the first half. Adam Saad was also a feature with 28 disposals and 481 metres gained for the game.
Head to Head (last 5)
Sydney 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Sydney: 1W 0L
Essendon: 1W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Sydney: $1.72
Essendon: $2.10
Line: 4.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Sydney vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Patrick Ambrose - Adam Saad
F: Will Hayward - Isaac Heeney - Tom Papley
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Nick Blakey - Tom McCartin - Sam Gray
C: Tom Cutler - Devon Smith - Kyle Langford
C: Harry Cuningham - Josh Kennedy - Lewis Taylor
HF: Jacob Townsend - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
HB: Callum Mills - Aliir Aliir - Jordan Dawson
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Jake Stringer
B: Jake Lloyd - Kaiden Brand - Dane Rampe
R: Tom Bellchambers - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Shiel
R: Sam Naismith - Luke Parker - George Hewett
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Andrew McGrath - David Zaharakis
I: Oliver Florent - James Rowbottom - Colin O'Riordan - Justin McInerney
Sydney in: George Hewett; Out: Ben Ronke (inj)
Essendon in: Shaun McKernan, Conor McKenna, Patrick Ambrose, Cale Hooker; Out: Jayden Laverde, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Matthew Guelfi (all omit), Orazio Fantasia (quad)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Sydney conceded the second most inside 50's on average but were good at repelling attacks when it went in, only conceding a goal 19.8 % of the time it entered their back 50. Essendon will be happy about the delay in this regard, meaning the likes of Cale Hooker can come back, the tall bomber likely to be manned by Tom McCartin who was forced to play forward due to a lack of options in round 1, meaning that Jake Stringer is more likely to get attention from Dane Rampe rather than Aliir Aliir. Jacob Townsend could prove to be a handful for Jake Lloyd as well, after 3 first half goals in round 1.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall in terms of differential, whereas Sydney have fallen off a cliff in this particular area in recent years, finishing 17th for this particular stat last season. Essendon can really ram home here with the return of Devon Smith to the midfield mix in addition to Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett, whilst Sydney will be looking towards their major inside duo of Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker to dominate in this particular field, whilst Oliver Florent was dynamic in this area round 1 and George Hewett will renew acquaintances with Shiel, who has a torrid time shaking off his particular tag. On the outside, Sydney were the second worst team in the comp in terms of Inside 50 differential, losing the count by an average of nearly 9 per game, so Essendon's wings of Will Snelling, Kyle Langford and new recruit Tom Cutler will be licking their lips at the prospect, the three outside midfielders of Lewis Taylor, Harry Cunningham and Justin McInerney barely playing together before. Rucks wise, it's two big, not very mobile, tap technicians in Sam Naismith and Tom Bellchambers, although Naismith tends to throw his weight around a bit more than Bellchambers.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Sydney's forward line was relatively strong in 2019, kicking a goal 23.6% of the time it entered their forward 50. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Both teams have returning players that wouldn't have been available if COVID-19 hadn't struck, Sydney were likely to be without Lance Franklin and Sam Reid whilst the Dons would have been missing Patrick Ambrose, who will be Franklin's likely match up. Isaac Heeney will probably receive attention from Michael Hurley whilst Jordan Ridley and Aaron Francis probably go head-to-head with Nick Blakey and Sam Reid respectively. Adam Saad kept Tom Papley to 1 goal in each of the meetings last year, and will be keen to do so again whilst Mason Redman probably covers Sam Gray in an interesting tussle.
X-Factor Player
Will Hayward is a giant tease at times, he could be something seriously special if it all came together. He's mercurial and can kick a goal, but soon he needs to become that 30+ goal a year forward we all know he can be.
Key stat
Sydney: Inside 50's. They went 4-11 when losing the inside 50 count last year. 3-4 when they won. Only Gold Coast had a worse I50 differential last year
Essendon: Handball metres gained. It's been a feature of Richmond the past 3 years and it seems to have been implemented at Essendon to good effect over the pre-season.
Tip
With no rhyme or reason I'm backing us in, Dons by 27
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