Fatcat08
Cool and Footbally
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The Rambling (feel free to go down to The Game section for less incoherent rambling)
This weeks preview has left me in a world of mixed emotions, a myriad of ups and downs.
Initially I was pained to reflect on season that has left me disappointed and slightly jaded. I mean this wasn't supposed to happen, why would something that delivered so much joy to so many have to cease with such severity, why did Collingwood have to be good again. We had all laughed through the preceding 7 seasons with a mix of appreciation, humour and a certain smugness as the Pies seemed to blunder their way through season after season, slowly spiraling into the abyss. Then 2018 happened, and suddenly through the power of Buckley's now deceased but ever powerful beard the Pies were good again despite seemingly employing the entire GC Suns medical team.
But despite the arrival of such dark days, there is a light on the horizon, the 2018 AFL ladder. Its close, remarkably close (well for most of the teams) and with only 3 rounds to go, for many teams there remains the very real possibility of finishing in either the top four, or out of the 8 completely. Its this amazing possibility that presents the opportunity for greatness this week, but with greatness comes great responsibility. Lose this week, and we could be letting the Pies into the top 4, win and they could be out of the 8 completely come sunday night. Its not every day you get to make dreams come true.
And we're not without a chance either. Finally after seasons of meandering through the AFL abyss it feels that every time our boys pull on the guernsey, they're a chance to grab a win. Its not the idle musings of just fans either, our players feel it, the opposition feels it and the wider footy community feels it too, "they know we're coming" (ok too far)
The Stats
Stats never tell the full story, but sometimes they are useful. Look across any statistical category when compared to the Pies, and they're not as far off as you would think.
As expected we're down on possessions, inside 50's and scoring shots, but not shockingly so. And we're up in turnovers, clearances and marks. What surprised me was how far down we were in bounces, I guess highlighting how we prefer to move the ball with disposal, rather than carry.
Dig a bit deeper and compare how we go per game vs our opponents and the reason the pies sit where they are, and we do not start to becomes apparent. While we're doing pretty well stats wise, the teams we play are doing much better against us then against the Pies.
We're well down in contested possession, uncontested posessions, marks inside 50, bounces, turnovers, intercepts and tackles inside 50. While progress is being made, we still sit below the team we play against most weeks.
The Game
The ins will play a big part in this. The pies will be without Moore this week who won this weeks injury raffle at the Holden Centre, however Howe does come in. Still this leaves them playing a second former basketballer as one of their Key Defenders. We'll have to be a whole lot better with our leading patterns than last week to allow McStay or Hipwood to take advantage of this, but the lack of cohesion in their back 6 could allow some mismatches.
Through the midfield it will depend who's up this week. Cutler coming back in will give us some of the run that was lacking in his absense, and should help move the ball a bit better on the fat side wing. Its actually quite amazing how pivotal he has become in that role given he was out of the team at the start of the year, and he seems to have finally worked out how he needs to, and can play, at afl level. As for the rest, we still rely on two second year players in Berry and Cluggs to really take us to that next level and compete with good afl midfields which is always going to vary game to game. Lets hope they continue their form from last week.
Overall the realist in me still thinks that the Pies will most likely win this one, albeit not by a lot. However the sometimes irrational dislike I have for them compels me to never tip them and since we can only seemingly win by a lot.....
Lions by 42
This weeks preview has left me in a world of mixed emotions, a myriad of ups and downs.
Initially I was pained to reflect on season that has left me disappointed and slightly jaded. I mean this wasn't supposed to happen, why would something that delivered so much joy to so many have to cease with such severity, why did Collingwood have to be good again. We had all laughed through the preceding 7 seasons with a mix of appreciation, humour and a certain smugness as the Pies seemed to blunder their way through season after season, slowly spiraling into the abyss. Then 2018 happened, and suddenly through the power of Buckley's now deceased but ever powerful beard the Pies were good again despite seemingly employing the entire GC Suns medical team.
But despite the arrival of such dark days, there is a light on the horizon, the 2018 AFL ladder. Its close, remarkably close (well for most of the teams) and with only 3 rounds to go, for many teams there remains the very real possibility of finishing in either the top four, or out of the 8 completely. Its this amazing possibility that presents the opportunity for greatness this week, but with greatness comes great responsibility. Lose this week, and we could be letting the Pies into the top 4, win and they could be out of the 8 completely come sunday night. Its not every day you get to make dreams come true.
And we're not without a chance either. Finally after seasons of meandering through the AFL abyss it feels that every time our boys pull on the guernsey, they're a chance to grab a win. Its not the idle musings of just fans either, our players feel it, the opposition feels it and the wider footy community feels it too, "they know we're coming" (ok too far)
The Stats
Stats never tell the full story, but sometimes they are useful. Look across any statistical category when compared to the Pies, and they're not as far off as you would think.
As expected we're down on possessions, inside 50's and scoring shots, but not shockingly so. And we're up in turnovers, clearances and marks. What surprised me was how far down we were in bounces, I guess highlighting how we prefer to move the ball with disposal, rather than carry.
Dig a bit deeper and compare how we go per game vs our opponents and the reason the pies sit where they are, and we do not start to becomes apparent. While we're doing pretty well stats wise, the teams we play are doing much better against us then against the Pies.
We're well down in contested possession, uncontested posessions, marks inside 50, bounces, turnovers, intercepts and tackles inside 50. While progress is being made, we still sit below the team we play against most weeks.
The Game
The ins will play a big part in this. The pies will be without Moore this week who won this weeks injury raffle at the Holden Centre, however Howe does come in. Still this leaves them playing a second former basketballer as one of their Key Defenders. We'll have to be a whole lot better with our leading patterns than last week to allow McStay or Hipwood to take advantage of this, but the lack of cohesion in their back 6 could allow some mismatches.
Through the midfield it will depend who's up this week. Cutler coming back in will give us some of the run that was lacking in his absense, and should help move the ball a bit better on the fat side wing. Its actually quite amazing how pivotal he has become in that role given he was out of the team at the start of the year, and he seems to have finally worked out how he needs to, and can play, at afl level. As for the rest, we still rely on two second year players in Berry and Cluggs to really take us to that next level and compete with good afl midfields which is always going to vary game to game. Lets hope they continue their form from last week.
Overall the realist in me still thinks that the Pies will most likely win this one, albeit not by a lot. However the sometimes irrational dislike I have for them compels me to never tip them and since we can only seemingly win by a lot.....
Lions by 42
