Up the Coasters Round 21- Positives and more positives v Essendon

[UseR2006]

Back to Positives from the game, because it's not the trade/draft thread....

I know there was some complaints about the slow kick/mark play during the first qtr but I actually didn't mind seeing that during the game.
Shows we are trying to stem the bleed and take momentum away instead of getting blown away. The fact we were able to go back to playing quick instead of staying in that mode was great to see.

Give it time and we'll be able to go in and out of those modes quicker and recognise when to do so and not.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Was going to include Goddard but then then remembered he played for the saints lol

In fairness there can be nothing more expected of Goddard in the first 2010 drawn grand final.
Guy was immense and nothing should be taken away from his own individual performance.
Also, during their premiership tilts in 2009-2010 Goddard had statistically his best seasons averaging 28 disposals, 6.5 marks, 3.5 clearances and 0.67 Brownlow votes per game.
The guy rubs me the wrong way, but if your sole assessment of a single selection is "did he participate in a grand final" I think you misunderstand the nature of how much a team sport AFL is.
Heck Tom Boyd was a no. 1 pick who won a premiership medal yet of those no. 1 picks since the turn of the century you'd probably only have him ahead of fellow forwards Patton and McCartin, making him the third worst no. 1 pick since the 2000 draft. And it cannot be stressed how far behind in output Boyd is in comparison to most of the other 22 no. 1 picks since 2000. The logic of rating a player substantially higher because they participated in a premiership is highly flawed for AFL. Unless you want to rate Martin Pike in the top 30 players to have ever played. You can't have it both ways.

 

[Bender_]

Goddard got all the premierships he deserved.

 

[GWeagles]

Your also wrong, given that 5 of the last 20 flags featured the #1 pick (hawks 2008, 2013, 2014 and 2015 — Dogs 2016)

Also quite a few #1 picks featured in the losing GF teams and others more recently drafted are in ascending teams who could have success.


Of course all of this means little as historical stats are not relevant to whether Reid will be a success or not. But if we are going to throw out arbitrary stats, may as well be accurate.

You are referring to players outside the 20 year draft period. Boyd is the only player drafted at number 1 in that period to win a flag. The others were drafted outside that period.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Goddard got all the premierships he deserved.

I think you're making an assessment on what you think of him as a person, rather than him as a player.
I massively dislike Selwood but I'm not going to take away his premierships from him despite this.

 

[plays tall 1]

The value in holding pick 1 exists not just in selecting any player in the free market; it exists also in the leverage it provides to negotiate. It may be that our club intends to draft Curtin no matter what. And if that’s the case, holding pick 1 could be a big advantage…they might be able to get a couple of additional high draft picks by trading pick 1 while still ensuring they get Curtin.

 

[jesterwester]

In fairness there can be nothing more expected of Goddard in the first 2010 drawn grand final.
Guy was immense and nothing should be taken away from his own individual performance.
Also, during their premiership tilts in 2009-2010 Goddard had statistically his best seasons averaging 28 disposals, 6.5 marks, 3.5 clearances and 0.67 Brownlow votes per game.
The guy rubs me the wrong way, but if your sole assessment of a single selection is "did he participate in a grand final" I think you misunderstand the nature of how much a team sport AFL is.
Heck Tom Boyd was a no. 1 pick who won a premiership medal yet of those no. 1 picks since the turn of the century you'd probably only have him ahead of fellow forwards Patton and McCartin, making him the third worst no. 1 pick since the 2000 draft. And it cannot be stressed how far behind in output Boyd is in comparison to most of the other 22 no. 1 picks since 2000. The logic of rating a player substantially higher because they participated in a premiership is highly flawed for AFL. Unless you want to rate Martin Pike in the top 30 players to have ever played. You can't have it both ways.

I was really replying to the previous commentary around one number one premier in the last 20 years. Which was wrong although I am sure they meant actually drafted in the last 20 years which was ridiculous in its line of thought anyway. Because you are right- a premiership medal is a flawed way to rank a footballer.

The #1 pick may not end being the best footballer in the draft. But they are the surest bet of being at least a better than average footballer who goes on to play 150+ games.

Goddard was a really good footballer. Remarkable actually given he did a knee right in his prime. That 09 grand final was ridiculously good.
Just having a dig at the saints.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I was really replying to the previous commentary around one number one premier in the last 20 years. Which was wrong although I am sure they meant actually drafted in the last 20 years which was ridiculous in its line of thought anyway. Because you are right- a premiership medal is a flawed way to rank a footballer.

The #1 pick may not end being the best footballer in the draft. But they are the surest bet of being at least a better than average footballer who goes on to play 150+ games.

Goddard was a really good footballer. Remarkable actually given he did a knee right in his prime. That 09 grand final was ridiculously good.
Just having a dig at the saints.

And, to clarify, I wasn't really correcting your comment.
TBH I just couldn't be bothered going back and linking the original position as to the no. 1 pick and premierships.

 

[ROO DOGG]

Anyone sooking because I cheered when Langford got that goal leading to an uninspiring Bombers win can eat one of these

I didn't sit through the last 3 years of eagles poor performance in an absurdly bad period, only to throw away the draft compensation we are entitled to, which includes selecting a marquee player to be the face of our club going forward.... all for a nothing win to finish the the worst season in our history.


Grow up.

It was the Bombers that got us pick 2 last year wasnt it?

 

[ROO DOGG]

My hope from here on out is North can beat Essendon next Saturday, then can cheer hard for us to beat Freo. If we cant beat Freo then rest everyone vs Doggies and for Hurns last game, get up and give him a win as a send off

Think North can roll Essendon next week for sure

They came close last time.

 

[maverick001]

You are referring to players outside the 20 year draft period. Boyd is the only player drafted at number 1 in that period to win a flag. The others were drafted outside that period.

Well that's a deceptive way to look at it, because a lot of those players are still going in the careers and many only in early stages. Whilst only 1-2 of last 20 #1 picks may have won one, by the time those 20 players have all finished their careers who knows it might be 5-6
However, looking at the last 20 years' premiers and determining how many had No 1 picks in them does give a clear and accurate "x in every y" stat

 

[Wunjarrah]

You are referring to players outside the 20 year draft period. Boyd is the only player drafted at number 1 in that period to win a flag. The others were drafted outside that period.

You didn't clearly define the set and in reality this is a skewed sample as only a very small number of draftees have any impact in their first or second year, let alone their third.

To have any real meaning as has been pointed out by other posters, you need to compare pick 1 vs all other draft order positions.

My hypothesis would be there is likely no statistical significance in ordinal draft position for winning premierships. That's too many degrees of freedom for me right now, and in reality your observation is correlative not causative. Might make a great undergraduate thesis however.

You don't pick Harley (or insert other generational talent) on the basis that he will win you a premiership. NicNat would have gone bloody close but you know what happened there.

You pick player X on the basis that they are the best available, fit your system and will improve the quality of your squad. Beyond that it is a lottery.

What I'm confident is that if picked, Harley he is going to be amazing to watch, will pack out stadiums, sell merchandise, and win the odd game or two.

Strap in, it will be a delicious reward for such a cluster fck of a season.

Sent from my motorola edge 20 fusion using Tapatalk

 

[Rowan18]

100%

But unfortunately the best place for him to do that right now is the only other team in WA that's a bigger rabble than the Eagles.

Freo?

 

[ROO DOGG]

Draft picks are never worth more than wins.

But what if that draft pick was going to guarantee more wins?

 

[ROO DOGG]

Cant take anyone serious who says chesser isnt good. He is good and will be very good.

Not everyone can have that hewett swag but chesser will compliment this team perfectly. 200+ game player

He has done some very good things. With his athletic profile and skill will become a very good player. Can run all day and has burst speed, a great combination.

 

[Selurs]

But what if that draft pick was going to guarantee more wins?

Except they don't. Guy could fracture his navicular day one and never play a game. Nothing is ever guaranteed.

 

[Selurs]

You didn't clearly define the set and in reality this is a skewed sample as only a very small number of draftees have any impact in their first or second year, let alone their third.

...

My hypothesis would be there is likely no statistical significance in ordinal draft position for winning premierships. That's too many degrees of freedom for me right now, and in reality your observation is correlative not causative. Might make a great undergraduate thesis however.

I like that you dislike the original statistical comparison so you just throw your own arbitrary comment in with it. Good stuff.

Here's one for all the "I love to losers" out there. The most recent player drafted to a wooden spoon side with pick #1 who then subsequently went on to win a flag with that same team was...Des Hedland. Pick #1 doesn't fix your team. Ever. Winning does.

 

[Dylan82]

This was a game that seemed to surprise everyone, including the club.

Six day break travelling to Melbourne to play an Essendon side that had the luxury of playing its sixth successive match in Victoria.


After the sugar-hit of last week, I had expectations of another slow start on the road, with the lop-sided travel factoring then in to tire legs early and lead to a resumption of boosting opposing percentage.

Clearly, the club had such fears in mind as well, starting in complete containment mode and trying to minimise the game from becoming contested as much as possible. It proved effective as Essendon failed to press forward and the resulting combination of 44 marks and 88 uncontested possessions in the first quarter stymied any early momentum the Bombers could generate whilst providing the Eagles with growing confidence in their possession.

With the Bombers wasting the chances they had, West Coast took an unexpected lead into the quarter time break.


Obviously nobody is going to allow their opponent to 43 uncontested marks every quarter. Essendon made the adjustment, rolled players higher up the ground to prevent the switch and forced a far more contested game that was to their advantage. A loss of contested possession and clearance by -17 and -6 respectively translated into a 4 goal deficit over the quarter which had an all-too-familiar feel to it and loomed heavily over what the second half may bring.

Less than a minute into the third quarter and the Bombers were up by five goals. Here we go again...

Except it didn't happen again.


The wave that threatened to crash over the team from the red and black never came. The defence held firm. Then slowly the game started to change. The makeshift midfield of West Coast started winning around stoppage and gain dominance of territory.



Suddenly it was less than three kicks and we had a game on. It's good being competitive again...


Essendon were winning contest but West Coast were killing them on the spread. For the first time in I cannot remember how long, the Eagles looked faster around the ground than their opponents. With the Bombers still committing players high to prevent the uncontested switch, West Coast was able to put that speed to use and take advantage, moving the ball quickly before Essendon's defence could set.

Soon the margin was less than two kicks. Ok, this is getting interesting now...

Ten minutes later, it was down to a single point. F**k me, we're going to win this...

Three minutes after that, Maric kicked truly to convert the fifth goal for the club generated from defensive 50 chains, a season high.

With less than two minutes to go, the Eagles had come from five goals down to take the lead. F**k yes!... ...Pick 2 No!


Enter perhaps the most conflicted 100 seconds West Coast fans have endured.




In the end, a dodgy ball-up allowed Essendon to break away from stoppage and gift Langford the match-winning goal, his fifth of the afternoon.

An unpaid block on Allen wasn't enough to change the scoreboard, but provided the moral victory.


So a loss by the barest of margins, on a six day break travelling interstate against a team that hasn't travelled further than Geelong since June.

That's a huge effort, and certainly not one that I saw coming.

Experience played it's part (Kelly, Cripps, McGovern, Gaff and Yeo were all significant, particularly in the second half), but the catalyst was speed and spread. The likes of Petruccelle, Hewett, Hunt and Chesser.

That pace allowed the forward line to operate on its own terms for one of the very few times this season, and it functioned well. Maric is turning out to be an absolute steal of a selection in the mid-season draft.

Just as telling was this occurred during Sheed's absence. His position in the midfield should now without question be considered a hindrance to the performance of the team.



We got to see another insight into what the future may bring, and it looks bright and entertaining.

And we still have H.Reid to add to that.

 

[WCEswift]

Anyone got a gif of the hewett fend?

 

[twce13]

You are referring to players outside the 20 year draft period. Boyd is the only player drafted at number 1 in that period to win a flag. The others were drafted outside that period.

No I didn’t, I simply replied to this.

One number one draft pick has won a premiership medallion in twenty years.

Which as per my previous post is factually incorrect.

But the bigger point is historical statistics will have no bearing on the success of Harley Reid. It’s a weak argument to support a narrative.

 

[Father Jack]

But what if that draft pick was going to guarantee more wins?

Draft picks don't guarantee anything

 

[the harry]

One number one draft pick has won a premiership medallion in twenty years.

Wouldn't you say they're about due?

Slightly more seriously, if we had got pick 1 from Carlton in the Judd trade we would have picked Cotchin. If you actually pick the best player it helps. In the last 20 years would Cooney be the only pick 1 you'd take at 1 again?

Also, I think you're better focusing on the fact that teams that finish last (and don't trade into pick 1 like the Hawks) often have a big rebuild ahead of them and don't have the off field sorted to enable the high picks to experience success. Even the Saints had a board member off his head making decisions during their period at the top.

 

[kranky al]

I’m saying this obsessive view that number will be so much better for us isn’t borne out by the evidence. 20 years is enough time.

Like when melbourne picked watts instead of nn?

 

[Marlin01]

I hate to say it, but there was absolutely no conflict in my mind in the last 3 minutes of that game. I definitely did not want the Eagles to win.

 

[TheNewAnchor]

Draft picks don't guarantee anything

I agree that individual draft picks don’t guarantee that you’ll snare a Bontempelli or a Chris Judd, but having a number of high draft picks in consecutive seasons holds you in pretty good stead for a rise up the ladder and that’s why GWS are always there and about. Having said that, their circumstances hardly reflect the norm. While high draft picks are a key to improvement they need to be balanced with patience, proven development processes and effective retention strategies.