Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne
Saturday 2nd April, 7pm Brisbane time @ Gabba
(photo credit: Murray Valley Standard)
Form Guide
Round 1:
North Melbourne kicked off their year against another side tipped to miss the finals in Hawthorn. North were on top of a scrappy game early, building a 20-point lead halfway through the second quarter, only for Hawthorn to stamp their authority and take the game away from them. North faced some backlash for their decision to play three ruckmen (Xerri, Goldstein, and Coleman-Jones), and whilst Noble backed the decision post-match, Coleman-Jones was dropped for the following game.
Round 2:
North Melbourne were in a lose-lose position from the outset in Round 2 – up against a depleted West Coast side that had 17 AFL-listed players to choose from, most unfairly predicted a thumping win against a side with little synergy or AFL experience. The Roos did enough, winning by 15 and not ever really looking in trouble, but it was a dismal game that had very few shining stars – one being Nick Larkey’s six goals.
Past Results
Round 14 2021: North Melbourne 6.9.45 def by Brisbane 9.14.68
Last year, we met mid-season in our first game after the bye. Having lost to the eventual premiers Melbourne in a disappointing fashion in the game leading into the bye (up by 20 at half-time only to be rolled comprehensively in the second half), we were expected to make a statement against the bottom of the ladder side, after two weeks of licking our wounds. Well, the Lions emerged from the bye… and failed to make a statement. Two points down at half-time and lucky not to be further down, a four-goal run either side of the three-quarter time break got us home by 23 points in an unconvincing manner.
This seems to be a theme of our last few games against North Melbourne – we have won our last four games against the Kangaroos, but none of them have been in an impressive manner, given our contrasting fortunes over the last three years.
This then begs the question – why are we so underwhelming against the Kangaroos? I come to you with zero possible hypotheses, outside of our inability to truly put teams to the sword over the past few years.
Around the Ground: Lions attack vs Roos defence
North’s defence has lost its main rock in Robbie Tarrant, who defected to the Tigers in the off-season. Replacing him is Aidan Corr, who missed all of last season with some form of toe infection. Their other key defensive post is none other than Josh Walker, who has made a decent fist of his third crack in the AFL, but comes with the same limitations we saw during his time at Brisbane.
Given Corr is 194cm and from my understanding more of a Gardiner-style talls/smalls defender, I’d imagine Walker will take Daniher, giving us an opportunity to expose Walker if Daniher is given the chance. This begs an interesting dilemma for the Roos, as they will then be left with Corr to man up against the resting ruck in McInerney/Fort, Lachie Young (at 189cm) up against McStay, and possibly the 23-gamer Aiden Bonar (the medical sub against West Coast, but played most of the game after Davies-Uniacke was subbed off early) against Cameron.
If Brisbane can lower the eyes and give our forwards repeat entries, there seems to be an opportunity to put some scoreboard pressure on the Roos.
North’s strength in their defence is their rebounding – Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell both being reborn as rebounding half-backs in 2021 was quite successful, and Luke McDonald is their best and fairest winner from 2020. Whilst Hall is not the most efficient kick by boot, he takes damaging options often enough to cause havoc if left alone. It will be interesting to see how our smaller forwards match up on these guys, and if we structure up at all to try and reduce their rebound.
Around the Ground: Lions midfield vs Roos midfield
The midfield seems to be a much more even battle on paper – North has a solid midfield group, if lacking a little depth. Jy Simpkin is sniffing at the heels of McCluggage and Taranto to be labelled the best player in the 2016 draft, and he is ably supported by Hugh Greenwood and Davies-Uniacke, who was best on ground by a mile in the first half against Hawthorn in Round 1. Davies-Uniacke was subbed off early in Round 2 though, so may not be available.
Whilst these names more than hold their own, where the Lions should get on top is through our depth – with Neale, Lyons, Bailey, McCluggage, Berry, Zorko and pinch-hitters in Rayner and Cockatoo possibly floating through as well, we should be able to take the game away from them.
North have two very good ruckmen though – Goldstein is in the twilight of his career but still deserves respect for what he can do (North finished 5th for hitouts in 2021), and Xerri is the up and comer that’s looked good in 2022 so far. North finished 16th for clearances in 2021, but with Greenwood entering the line-up I would imagine their inside game has the capacity to step up a notch in 2022.
Around the Ground: Lions defence vs Roos attack
North has one of the key forwards I reckon we’ll be talking about alongside Harry McKay for the next 10 years in Nick Larkey. He’s kicked a few bags now, and seems to have kicked 2-3 a game against Brisbane over the last few years. Coming off 6 goals against West Coast, he’ll be feeling pretty good about his chances of taking it up to Harris Andrews. Meanwhile, Marcus Adams has been brilliant the last two weeks, and it is refreshing to see Andrews, Adams and Gardiner forming a solid defensive unit this year, even if all three still have their cringe-worthy moments.
I’d suggest Andrews will have first crack at Larkey, Adams will take the resting ruck in Goldstein/Xerri (assuming Coleman-Jones stays in the twos), and Gardiner will take Zurhaar. Zurhaar is the one I think could be a danger player for us – he’s looked like breaking open the last few games against us, and if he gets on top of Gardiner he could easily keep North in it.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is that Brisbane are in the middle of a premiership window, and although North have a quality list rebuild in progress (and a very good coach at the helm – we miss you Nobes), realistically the Lions need to snap the pattern of “just doing enough”, and send a message to the other challengers for 2022.
We stack up well on every line against the Roos, and if our midfield gets on top early, our forwards should have ample opportunity to kick goals.
Predictions
Changes: Robinson to come in for Sharp.
Rayner and Zurhaar to both kick 4, Brisbane by 35 after being up by three points at quarter time.
Saturday 2nd April, 7pm Brisbane time @ Gabba
(photo credit: Murray Valley Standard)
Form Guide
Round 1:
- Brisbane 11.14.80 def Port Adelaide 10.9.69
- Hawthorn 11.12.78 def North Melbourne 8.10.58
North Melbourne kicked off their year against another side tipped to miss the finals in Hawthorn. North were on top of a scrappy game early, building a 20-point lead halfway through the second quarter, only for Hawthorn to stamp their authority and take the game away from them. North faced some backlash for their decision to play three ruckmen (Xerri, Goldstein, and Coleman-Jones), and whilst Noble backed the decision post-match, Coleman-Jones was dropped for the following game.
Round 2:
- Essendon 10.15.75 def by Brisbane 15.7.97
- North Melbourne 10.14.74 def West Coast 8.11.59
North Melbourne were in a lose-lose position from the outset in Round 2 – up against a depleted West Coast side that had 17 AFL-listed players to choose from, most unfairly predicted a thumping win against a side with little synergy or AFL experience. The Roos did enough, winning by 15 and not ever really looking in trouble, but it was a dismal game that had very few shining stars – one being Nick Larkey’s six goals.
Past Results
Round 14 2021: North Melbourne 6.9.45 def by Brisbane 9.14.68
- Lions best: Lyons 36 disposals, McCluggage 31 disposals & 0.3, Neale 30 disposals & 1.0
- Roos best: Larkey 3.1, Ziebell 32 disposals, Simpkin 31 disposals
- Lions best: Neale 24 disposals, McCarthy 2.1, McInerney 2.0 & 24 hitouts
- Roos best: Anderson 29 disposals, Simpkin 26 disposals, Larkey 2.2
- Lions best: Lyons 30 disposals & 2.1, Christensen 3.1, McCluggage 18 disposals & 2.0
- Roos best: Higgins 27 disposals & 1.0, Brown 3.1, Cunnington 21 disposals & 1.0
- Lions best: Neale 43 disposals, Rich 27 disposals, Cameron 4.1
- Roos best: Cunnington 36 disposals & 1.0, Higgins 38 disposals, Brown 3.2
Last year, we met mid-season in our first game after the bye. Having lost to the eventual premiers Melbourne in a disappointing fashion in the game leading into the bye (up by 20 at half-time only to be rolled comprehensively in the second half), we were expected to make a statement against the bottom of the ladder side, after two weeks of licking our wounds. Well, the Lions emerged from the bye… and failed to make a statement. Two points down at half-time and lucky not to be further down, a four-goal run either side of the three-quarter time break got us home by 23 points in an unconvincing manner.
This seems to be a theme of our last few games against North Melbourne – we have won our last four games against the Kangaroos, but none of them have been in an impressive manner, given our contrasting fortunes over the last three years.
This then begs the question – why are we so underwhelming against the Kangaroos? I come to you with zero possible hypotheses, outside of our inability to truly put teams to the sword over the past few years.
Around the Ground: Lions attack vs Roos defence
North’s defence has lost its main rock in Robbie Tarrant, who defected to the Tigers in the off-season. Replacing him is Aidan Corr, who missed all of last season with some form of toe infection. Their other key defensive post is none other than Josh Walker, who has made a decent fist of his third crack in the AFL, but comes with the same limitations we saw during his time at Brisbane.
Given Corr is 194cm and from my understanding more of a Gardiner-style talls/smalls defender, I’d imagine Walker will take Daniher, giving us an opportunity to expose Walker if Daniher is given the chance. This begs an interesting dilemma for the Roos, as they will then be left with Corr to man up against the resting ruck in McInerney/Fort, Lachie Young (at 189cm) up against McStay, and possibly the 23-gamer Aiden Bonar (the medical sub against West Coast, but played most of the game after Davies-Uniacke was subbed off early) against Cameron.
If Brisbane can lower the eyes and give our forwards repeat entries, there seems to be an opportunity to put some scoreboard pressure on the Roos.
North’s strength in their defence is their rebounding – Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell both being reborn as rebounding half-backs in 2021 was quite successful, and Luke McDonald is their best and fairest winner from 2020. Whilst Hall is not the most efficient kick by boot, he takes damaging options often enough to cause havoc if left alone. It will be interesting to see how our smaller forwards match up on these guys, and if we structure up at all to try and reduce their rebound.
Around the Ground: Lions midfield vs Roos midfield
The midfield seems to be a much more even battle on paper – North has a solid midfield group, if lacking a little depth. Jy Simpkin is sniffing at the heels of McCluggage and Taranto to be labelled the best player in the 2016 draft, and he is ably supported by Hugh Greenwood and Davies-Uniacke, who was best on ground by a mile in the first half against Hawthorn in Round 1. Davies-Uniacke was subbed off early in Round 2 though, so may not be available.
Whilst these names more than hold their own, where the Lions should get on top is through our depth – with Neale, Lyons, Bailey, McCluggage, Berry, Zorko and pinch-hitters in Rayner and Cockatoo possibly floating through as well, we should be able to take the game away from them.
North have two very good ruckmen though – Goldstein is in the twilight of his career but still deserves respect for what he can do (North finished 5th for hitouts in 2021), and Xerri is the up and comer that’s looked good in 2022 so far. North finished 16th for clearances in 2021, but with Greenwood entering the line-up I would imagine their inside game has the capacity to step up a notch in 2022.
Around the Ground: Lions defence vs Roos attack
North has one of the key forwards I reckon we’ll be talking about alongside Harry McKay for the next 10 years in Nick Larkey. He’s kicked a few bags now, and seems to have kicked 2-3 a game against Brisbane over the last few years. Coming off 6 goals against West Coast, he’ll be feeling pretty good about his chances of taking it up to Harris Andrews. Meanwhile, Marcus Adams has been brilliant the last two weeks, and it is refreshing to see Andrews, Adams and Gardiner forming a solid defensive unit this year, even if all three still have their cringe-worthy moments.
I’d suggest Andrews will have first crack at Larkey, Adams will take the resting ruck in Goldstein/Xerri (assuming Coleman-Jones stays in the twos), and Gardiner will take Zurhaar. Zurhaar is the one I think could be a danger player for us – he’s looked like breaking open the last few games against us, and if he gets on top of Gardiner he could easily keep North in it.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is that Brisbane are in the middle of a premiership window, and although North have a quality list rebuild in progress (and a very good coach at the helm – we miss you Nobes), realistically the Lions need to snap the pattern of “just doing enough”, and send a message to the other challengers for 2022.
We stack up well on every line against the Roos, and if our midfield gets on top early, our forwards should have ample opportunity to kick goals.
Predictions
Changes: Robinson to come in for Sharp.
Rayner and Zurhaar to both kick 4, Brisbane by 35 after being up by three points at quarter time.
