PREVIEW: ESSENDON vs. CARLTON
Essendon and Carlton, as traditional rivals, always serve up an interesting contest, no matter where each other sit on the ladder, how long the injury list or how bad the previous form.
As irrelevant as it often is between these two, early season form tells us very little anyway.
Essendon’s opening two performances have seen two big margins with a win and a loss, and this is probably representative of some of the inconsistency that’s expected of the new style, young Bombers.
Carlton on the other hand haven’t been able to find consistency for four quarters, and have been beaten comfortably twice despite looking good in the lead at different stages of the match.
All this makes for this Round 3 clash to be all the more intriguing.
THE TEAM
B: Fletcher Michael Ramanauskas
HB: Winderlich Ryder Nash
C: Dyson Watson Houli
HF: Welsh McPhee Lovett
F: Davey Lloyd Hille
Foll: Laycock Stanton McVeigh
Inter: Jetta Johnson Monfries Lonergan
Emerg: Johns Peverill Reimers
IN: Welsh, Lovett, Monfries
OUT: Lovett-Murray (Groin), Dempsey (Hamstring), Slattery
I can’t see Knights wanting to wield the axe too desperately just yet, and with the two forced changes for Dempsey and Lovett-Murray, we’ll shape up fairly differently anyway. The one I think has to go is Henry Slattery. Henry’s performance against Geelong was well below what would’ve been expected, and Bendigo could well be his lesson. He was caught wrong sided more than once and his skills were disappointing. Other possible outs include Sam Lonergan who wouldn’t be a monty to play after last week’s performance and Bachar Houli, who is rumoured to be suffering from a corky.
As is representative of our improved depth from last season, there are options ready to step up in Lovett, Welsh and Monfries. Lovett tore it up through the midfield for Bendigo last week after his Pre-season suspension, Andrew Welsh kicked 5 in the first half before resting up on the bench for the rest of the match and Angus Monfries put in a solid display through the midfield and, in my opinion, is ready for his crack after his early season wake up call. I’m not counting on the Monfries inclusion though, with Reimers rumoured to be playing and the possibility of one of Johns or Lee coming in to add another tall target to the forward line. Henry Slattery, for his defensive capabilities relative to the rest of the team, may yet stay in the side as well.
THE KEY PLAYERS
Matthew Lloyd: It’ll be interesting to see who goes to Lloyd; it wouldn’t surprise me if any of Thornton, Jamison, Waite or O’hAilpin got the gig. Regardless, Lloyd is probably the only player in the Essendon side who’s capable of kicking a bag at the moment and you wouldn’t want to give him half a chance.
Jobe Watson: Essendon’s number 1 clearance player could be the man that releases Essendon’s speedy receivers, and he did just that against North Melbourne and we all saw how that turned out.
David Hille: Cloke, Hampson and Kreuzer will be fighting out of their weight division, and David Hille must take advantage of that. His tap work was great against North Melbourne, and throughout the NAB Cup he looked dangerous up forward. However, he wasn’t able to repeat the effort against Geelong. Two goals and 20 Hit-outs would take us a long way to victory. He’s important in filling the Lucas void.
Brendan Fevola: No one needs reminding that Brendan Fevola can rip the throat out of any side, no matter how quiet his recent form has been. Well, Big Mal won’t need any reminding, that’s for sure. Mind you, Mal’s fitness is far and away better than last season and has been in tremendous form over the first two weeks of the season. Will big Fev lie low another week, or burst back into the limelight? Who knows?
Chris Judd: He may not be fully fit, but his brain’s still working. If he can assert his authority on the centre bounces, the path to Fevola will open up remarkably and Mal could be caught behind once again. We all saw what the smarts of Geelong’s midfield did to Essendon; Judd’s capable of doing the same.
Marc Murphy: Has had a strong start to the season, and his brilliant disposal, speed and ability to read the play could potentially cause the young faces in Essendon’s midfield a few headaches. Opened Essendon up in Round 3 last year after half time, Bomber fans had better hope he doesn’t do that again.
STRENGTHS
Clearly pace is seen as an area where we can expose most sides, and whilst Carlton are far from the slowest team going around, one feels they may be a little light on for small and quick defensive players. If Essendon can open up the game a little bit, this could be an area where many scoring opportunities are born.
Another area where Essendon would look to exert some dominance would be the ruck. Carlton are inexperienced with Cloke, Hampson and Kreuzer, and the bigger bodies of Laycock and Hille could get on top. However, they couldn’t do it against Blake and West after beating Hale, McIntosh and Petrie soundly, so we’ll wait and see what happens.
WEAKNESSES
Carlton have superior clearance players, and it was with clearances that Geelong tore us to shreds last week. If Judd, Stevens, Murphy and Carrazzo are on their game in the centre, they should have it over Johnson, Watson, Stanton and McVeigh which would clear the path to Fevola quite drastically, as well as make Brad Fisher far more dangerous.
The other area where I feel Essendon are threatened is stopping Carlton’s midfield should they get going. Henry Slattery will struggle to be in the team after his Round 2 performance, and after him we’d be playing relative amateurs in the tagging stakes unless we choose to bring in Damien Peverill, who I don’t see as a terrific option. Mark McVeigh could well end up doing a job, but he’s needed in an attacking role at the same time. The other aspect here is that Matthew Knights has a greater focus on attack than defense, meaning that he may let a few guys go as we focus on our own game plan.
THE VERDICT
I still see Carlton as ‘building up’ as far as fitness goes, much like North were in Round 1. This opened up the game enormously in the second half, and allowed the young, fit types in the Essendon side (guys like Houli and Jetta) to run free and run all over them.
I think Essendon’s greater ability to play 4 quarters will get us across the line in what promises to be another passion fuelled contest, with both sides having plenty to play for.
Essendon by 10 points.
Essendon and Carlton, as traditional rivals, always serve up an interesting contest, no matter where each other sit on the ladder, how long the injury list or how bad the previous form.
As irrelevant as it often is between these two, early season form tells us very little anyway.
Essendon’s opening two performances have seen two big margins with a win and a loss, and this is probably representative of some of the inconsistency that’s expected of the new style, young Bombers.
Carlton on the other hand haven’t been able to find consistency for four quarters, and have been beaten comfortably twice despite looking good in the lead at different stages of the match.
All this makes for this Round 3 clash to be all the more intriguing.
THE TEAM
B: Fletcher Michael Ramanauskas
HB: Winderlich Ryder Nash
C: Dyson Watson Houli
HF: Welsh McPhee Lovett
F: Davey Lloyd Hille
Foll: Laycock Stanton McVeigh
Inter: Jetta Johnson Monfries Lonergan
Emerg: Johns Peverill Reimers
IN: Welsh, Lovett, Monfries
OUT: Lovett-Murray (Groin), Dempsey (Hamstring), Slattery
I can’t see Knights wanting to wield the axe too desperately just yet, and with the two forced changes for Dempsey and Lovett-Murray, we’ll shape up fairly differently anyway. The one I think has to go is Henry Slattery. Henry’s performance against Geelong was well below what would’ve been expected, and Bendigo could well be his lesson. He was caught wrong sided more than once and his skills were disappointing. Other possible outs include Sam Lonergan who wouldn’t be a monty to play after last week’s performance and Bachar Houli, who is rumoured to be suffering from a corky.
As is representative of our improved depth from last season, there are options ready to step up in Lovett, Welsh and Monfries. Lovett tore it up through the midfield for Bendigo last week after his Pre-season suspension, Andrew Welsh kicked 5 in the first half before resting up on the bench for the rest of the match and Angus Monfries put in a solid display through the midfield and, in my opinion, is ready for his crack after his early season wake up call. I’m not counting on the Monfries inclusion though, with Reimers rumoured to be playing and the possibility of one of Johns or Lee coming in to add another tall target to the forward line. Henry Slattery, for his defensive capabilities relative to the rest of the team, may yet stay in the side as well.
THE KEY PLAYERS
Matthew Lloyd: It’ll be interesting to see who goes to Lloyd; it wouldn’t surprise me if any of Thornton, Jamison, Waite or O’hAilpin got the gig. Regardless, Lloyd is probably the only player in the Essendon side who’s capable of kicking a bag at the moment and you wouldn’t want to give him half a chance.
Jobe Watson: Essendon’s number 1 clearance player could be the man that releases Essendon’s speedy receivers, and he did just that against North Melbourne and we all saw how that turned out.
David Hille: Cloke, Hampson and Kreuzer will be fighting out of their weight division, and David Hille must take advantage of that. His tap work was great against North Melbourne, and throughout the NAB Cup he looked dangerous up forward. However, he wasn’t able to repeat the effort against Geelong. Two goals and 20 Hit-outs would take us a long way to victory. He’s important in filling the Lucas void.
Brendan Fevola: No one needs reminding that Brendan Fevola can rip the throat out of any side, no matter how quiet his recent form has been. Well, Big Mal won’t need any reminding, that’s for sure. Mind you, Mal’s fitness is far and away better than last season and has been in tremendous form over the first two weeks of the season. Will big Fev lie low another week, or burst back into the limelight? Who knows?
Chris Judd: He may not be fully fit, but his brain’s still working. If he can assert his authority on the centre bounces, the path to Fevola will open up remarkably and Mal could be caught behind once again. We all saw what the smarts of Geelong’s midfield did to Essendon; Judd’s capable of doing the same.
Marc Murphy: Has had a strong start to the season, and his brilliant disposal, speed and ability to read the play could potentially cause the young faces in Essendon’s midfield a few headaches. Opened Essendon up in Round 3 last year after half time, Bomber fans had better hope he doesn’t do that again.
STRENGTHS
Clearly pace is seen as an area where we can expose most sides, and whilst Carlton are far from the slowest team going around, one feels they may be a little light on for small and quick defensive players. If Essendon can open up the game a little bit, this could be an area where many scoring opportunities are born.
Another area where Essendon would look to exert some dominance would be the ruck. Carlton are inexperienced with Cloke, Hampson and Kreuzer, and the bigger bodies of Laycock and Hille could get on top. However, they couldn’t do it against Blake and West after beating Hale, McIntosh and Petrie soundly, so we’ll wait and see what happens.
WEAKNESSES
Carlton have superior clearance players, and it was with clearances that Geelong tore us to shreds last week. If Judd, Stevens, Murphy and Carrazzo are on their game in the centre, they should have it over Johnson, Watson, Stanton and McVeigh which would clear the path to Fevola quite drastically, as well as make Brad Fisher far more dangerous.
The other area where I feel Essendon are threatened is stopping Carlton’s midfield should they get going. Henry Slattery will struggle to be in the team after his Round 2 performance, and after him we’d be playing relative amateurs in the tagging stakes unless we choose to bring in Damien Peverill, who I don’t see as a terrific option. Mark McVeigh could well end up doing a job, but he’s needed in an attacking role at the same time. The other aspect here is that Matthew Knights has a greater focus on attack than defense, meaning that he may let a few guys go as we focus on our own game plan.
THE VERDICT
I still see Carlton as ‘building up’ as far as fitness goes, much like North were in Round 1. This opened up the game enormously in the second half, and allowed the young, fit types in the Essendon side (guys like Houli and Jetta) to run free and run all over them.
I think Essendon’s greater ability to play 4 quarters will get us across the line in what promises to be another passion fuelled contest, with both sides having plenty to play for.
Essendon by 10 points.
