Round 3 trades

[Krujan]

I dont understand why people are trading in Westhoff
He has had two soft games against team that will finish 17 and 18 respectfully

I would wait (take the price hit) and see how he perfroms in the hotly contested showdown
if he scores well in that, then i think he becomes more fantasy relevant

People who are trading him in, what are your reason(s) behind it ?

He tonned up in the first showdown game last year as well as the year before. Saves his best for the Crows. Has a B/E of -23. Will go up 51k if he scores 100. Hopefully he will save his best for Adelaide once again and Buddy has a quiet one this week, then virtually a straight swap the week after.

 

[WCEprod]

Bingo!

Why trade? Because Wesoff can be the sub and STILL go up in price, but Buddy has to get 150+

So say Westoff gets....70+? Then you make a big fat load of $$ and do exactly what Ted said above. It's not like Trades are an issue if you have a half decent team already.

Yeah at the moment i'll be going karnezis to westhoff. Hopefully lecras doesnt play this week so in 2 weeks time i can go westhoff > lecras with a nice tidy profit

 

[kaisasosai]

Yeah at the moment i'll be going karnezis to westhoff. Hopefully lecras doesnt play this week so in 2 weeks time i can go westhoff > lecras with a nice tidy profit

WCEprod I cant help but feel your team supporter status is clouding your judgement here.

Personally:

I would not even consider going after LeCras until he has come back, proven his fitness and even then I still think there are far better options out there.

But then again I am a one-eyed Pies supporter and I predict Dwyer will be in our team most of the season and potentially outscore half of the current forward premiums He just played with such a huge amount of confidence and smarts that I think Bucks will concrete him in.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Bhaaa!!! Bhaaa*sheepish grin*

But seriously....have a crack at your own research and follow your own gut feelings. You will get much better at DT/SC in the long term if you learn how to do this.

Hah I very much do my own research, I finished top 500 last year and am currently in the top 1,500 this year with a side I am mostly happy with. Research for me includes seeing what everyone else is doing and getting everyone elses opinion

 

[swanton]

I cant remember the numbers, but I suspect he has a really low BE. I saw some numbers last night that said that he's predicted to rise to about 475K, while Buddy falls to 495K. If you had Buddy, you could swap to Westhoff, gain 120 - 140K to upgrade elsewhere, then swap back next week for only 20K. With the extra trades this year, you can (potentially) afford to do this.

But that is if he can maintain his 126 avg
I just cant say with certainty that he will avg 90 this year based on 2 games against GWS and Melbourne
Are you only getting him in for his price rise or do you think that he can avg 90 odd this year

 

[kaisasosai]

But that is if he can maintain his 126 avg
I just cant say with certainty that he will avg 90 this year based on 2 games against GWS and Melbourne
Are you only getting him in for his price rise or do you think that he can avg 90 odd this year

I don't know about Ted but my take on this season is that you cannot simply 'lock in' good players anymore. If you don't maximize your ability to earn big $$ with your 44 trades then you are unlikely to take out the granny in a good league or score big points without any risks. I think Westhoff looked damn good regardless of who he was playing. But do I think he will outscore Buddy by end of season? Unlikely. But does it matter? Nope, just trade Buddy in when his price is on the way up.

In the 5 years I have played DT the one consistent thing I have found is that the team who wins our league in the end usually has a very high overall team value, and got there FAST. Without the $$ - you simply cannot be competitive, unless you are extremely lucky and pick out 2-3 freak performances from cheaper players in a single round.

The key to this season will be working out when to stop chasing the $$ and focus on reliable point scoring ability.

 

[kaisasosai]

Hah I very much do my own research, I finished top 500 last year and am currently in the top 1,500 this year with a side I am mostly happy with. Research for me includes seeing what everyone else is doing and getting everyone elses opinion

Lol - you do realize the irony of what you just said?

If you are beating some quarter of a million other players then you didn't get there by listening too hard to them now did you?

Kudos to doing so well last year and thus far in 2013. Luck only gets you so far so you must have more weapons than seeking general opinion up your sleeve. I would be happy to finish in the top 1000 this year as I am making a serious effort compared to past years.

 

[Jessbek]

Hah I very much do my own research, I finished top 500 last year and am currently in the top 1,500 this year with a side I am mostly happy with. Research for me includes seeing what everyone else is doing and getting everyone elses opinion

Don't you hate it when people think they know things when they really don't I saw his post, looked at his post count compared to your 4000 odd posts. Made me lol.

 

[kaisasosai]

Don't you hate it when people think they know things when they really don't I saw his post, looked at his post count compared to your 4000 odd posts. Made me lol.

Then I look at the fact you joined this forum 2 years after I did and lol at the fact you think posts = knowledge of fantasy footy. Guessing since you have averaged even more posts per year than Lynchy that you must be in the top 100?

I just have a different style to Lynchy that involves a lot of reading and following my own path. Lynchy definitely knows his stuff (I have been reading his posts for the last 3 years)....thats why I thought it ironic that he was asking open ended questions in regards to a player who is notorious for being completely unpredictable.

 

[Jessbek]

Then I look at the fact you joined this forum 2 years after I did and lol at the fact you think posts = knowledge of fantasy footy. Guessing since you have averaged even more posts per year than Lynchy that you must be in the top 100?

I just have a different style to Lynchy that involves a lot of reading and following my own path. Lynchy definitely knows his stuff (I have been reading his posts for the last 3 years)....thats why I thought it ironic that he was asking open ended questions in regards to a player who is notorious for being completely unpredictable.

Why is this even happening?..
You told a guy with a long track record to do his own research just over a question, I thought it was disrespectful. I know you've been a member for a while but people around here don't like new posters coming in here thinking that they run the place, and thats what you gave off. I'mtrying to help.. I don't even know why this is happening..

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Why is this even happening?..
You told a guy with a long track record to do his own research just over a question, I thought it was disrespectful. I know you've been a member for a while but people around here don't like new posters coming in here thinking that they run the place, and thats what you gave off. I'mtrying to help.. I don't even know why this is happening..

I agree, good point jess
This is odd

 

[TedDougChris]

But that is if he can maintain his 126 avg
I just cant say with certainty that he will avg 90 this year based on 2 games against GWS and Melbourne
Are you only getting him in for his price rise or do you think that he can avg 90 odd this year

Agreed, but with 44 trades, if he starts to decline or his BE becomes unobtainable, I simply swap him and pocket the cash....

I'm still trying to work out how best to play this. I wish I had more time to do some situational modelling, but then, if I'd had the time to do that earlier, half my side would be different....

I'm happy with most of my rookies at the moment. It's the premium selections that are giving me grief...

 

[kaisasosai]

I agree, good point jess
This is odd

LMAO

I wasn't being even close to disrespectful. If anything you 2 NEW MEMBERS are being ridiculous about a comment that was not only gentle in its criticism but also obviously tongue in cheek - or do you not know what sheepish means?

Even if you were ranked number 1 in DT it still wouldn't make you immune to criticism for asking open ended questions and not offering your own view in the first place and if it was a newbie who posted the same question you would likely have shot him down in flames for being lazy. I know this because in the time I have been in this forum I have seen it countless times. I wont do another forum member 'research' for them, but i am more than happy to give them my view vs their own expressed one.

I treat everyone who posts here with the same level of respect - I don't use their number of posts as a barometer, and neither should you.

*gets off podium*

 

[Mattrox]

Agreed, but with 44 trades, if he starts to decline or his BE becomes unobtainable, I simply swap him and pocket the cash....

I'm still trying to work out how best to play this. I wish I had more time to do some situational modelling, but then, if I'd had the time to do that earlier, half my side would be different....

I'm happy with most of my rookies at the moment. It's the premium selections that are giving me grief...

The only trouble comes when injury strikes.

If injury strikes a player you hope to make cash from it often backfires fast.... at least you can cash out some of the profit.

It it strikes a different player you might be short of trades. Situational modelling goes out the window and you have to wing it.


Your premium selections will take care of themselves as you cash in the rookies. By this time you will see who has found consistent form.

 

[kaisasosai]

The only trouble comes when injury strikes.

If injury strikes a player you hope to make cash from it often backfires fast.... at least you can cash out some of the profit.

It it strikes a different player you might be short of trades. Situational modelling goes out the window and you have to wing it.


Your premium selections will take care of themselves as you cash in the rookies. By this time you will see who has found consistent form.

Spot on. I think one thing I am going to try to avoid is a situations where I am relying on making 2 successful trades more than 1 round in advance.

For example I am hoping for no injuries this round so that I can bring in both Rowe and Luey next week on the bubble. But what happens if Ablett goes down and I am up against someone in my league with a super strong team? Is it worth potentially losing a league game to grab $40k? Especially when this similar situation could happen multiple times in a season.

The one saving grace this season seems to be that the rookies are really strong despite initially not looking too flash.

At first I hated the fact everyone got 2 trades per week but now I think it will just accelerate the rate at which good DT'ers scores will climb during the season.

 

[swanton]

Agreed, but with 44 trades, if he starts to decline or his BE becomes unobtainable, I simply swap him and pocket the cash....

I'm still trying to work out how best to play this. I wish I had more time to do some situational modelling, but then, if I'd had the time to do that earlier, half my side would be different....

I'm happy with most of my rookies at the moment. It's the premium selections that are giving me grief...

Yep new game so new strategies i guess
well if ur happy with ur rookie selections that the main thing because nothing increases a teams value more than rookies

 

[TedDougChris]

The only trouble comes when injury strikes.

If injury strikes a player you hope to make cash from it often backfires fast.... at least you can cash out some of the profit.

It it strikes a different player you might be short of trades. Situational modelling goes out the window and you have to wing it.


Your premium selections will take care of themselves as you cash in the rookies. By this time you will see who has found consistent form.

Agree. There is always the element of luck and timing. Injuries will certainly play a part. But at this stage, there is money to be made and if you are willing to take the chance, you might be very successful from it...

I'm caught between playing it relatively safe (Danger to Jack, Steven to Libba), or risky (Danger to Libba, Karnezis to Westhoff)...

 

[W.C. Fry]

Westhoff for the last 3 years has averaged between 73-80. If he can do at least that for a few more weeks then its a win - price will jump nicely enough and I will pocket his points. If he keeps scoring big then he could well become a F5, F6 keeper. Either way I can't see it being a bad trade.

Forward line is giving the most headaches atm. Take a look at the top scorers so far -

Westhoff
Kennedy (already got)
Bartel (already got)
Chapman (maybe still slightly overpriced hoping he will drop a little then jump on)
Rockliff (already got)
*now take a look at the rest, slim pickings*
N Riewoldt
Monfries
Garlett
Higgins
Elliott
Walters
Rioli
Blair
Lynch
Howe
Martin
Cox (got in rucks)
Stewart
Cloke
Lewis

Then finally comes Franklin.
There really isn't a whole heap of safe options in that list. I don't want to trade in anyone of them.

Westhoff is looking pretty sweet to me.

 

[kaisasosai]

Westhoff for the last 3 years has averaged between 73-80. If he can do at least that for a few more weeks then its a win - price will jump nicely enough and I will pocket his points. If he keeps scoring big then he could well become a F5, F6 keeper. Either way I can't see it being a bad trade.

Forward line is giving the most headaches atm. Take a look at the top scorers so far -

Westhoff
Kennedy (already got)
Bartel (already got)
Chapman (maybe still slightly overpriced hoping he will drop a little then jump on)
Rockliff (already got)
*now take a look at the rest, slim pickings*
N Riewoldt
Monfries
Garlett
Higgins
Elliott
Walters
Rioli
Blair
Lynch
Howe
Martin
Cox (got in rucks)
Stewart
Cloke
Lewis

Then finally comes Franklin.
There really isn't a whole heap of safe options in that list. I don't want to trade in anyone of them.

Westhoff is looking pretty sweet to me.

Thanks for this W.C - it helped me put things in perspective in my own head. I wouldn't have picked half of that list to be in the top 20 after 2 rounds. God knows what it will look like after say 5 rounds....but Elliott and Monfries are the 2 that I am keeping an eye on for consistency.

 

[TedDougChris]

Yep new game so new strategies i guess
well if ur happy with ur rookie selections that the main thing because nothing increases a teams value more than rookies

Rookies are: Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard, Heath, Wines, Viney, Whitfield, O'Meara, Blicavs, Currie, Dwyer, Macaffer. Might not have been perfect, but nearly all are playing.....

 

[SloppyJoe]

Thanks for the reply. What about this one, Kane Mitchell for Dwyer in the midfield, that way I keep Macaffer and get Dwyer's price rise. But I also have the option of Ollie Wines which is very, very tempting.

You want to end up having both Dwyer and Wines if you can swing it. If it means getting rid of Macaffer, so be it. IMO, their order of quick cash generation ability goes Wines -> Dwyer -> Macaffer.

 

[Spider Klein]

4 players that I don't have looking like having big price rises.

Dwyer, Westhoff, JJ Kennedy, Liberatore.

Which 2 out of these guys do you think makes the most cash. Either way the same 2 guys for me get traded out.

Thinking Dwyer and Kennedy are gonna be the two best price gains from this bunch (over 3-4 rounds.) Correct or people think different

 

[CaptScott]

4 players that I don't have looking like having big price rises.

Dwyer, Westhoff, JJ Kennedy, Liberatore.

Which 2 out of these guys do you think makes the most cash. Either way the same 2 guys for me get traded out.

Thinking Dwyer and Kennedy are gonna be the two best price gains from this bunch (over 3-4 rounds.) Correct or people think different

One point to consider is everybody seems to be jumping on Kennedy and Dwyer, so Westhoff might be a good (sort of) point of difference.

 

[Eyes Peeled]

What are peoples thoughts on these trade options?

Option 1
Grimes > Hepp
Karn > Kennedy
Leaves 157k
or
Option 2
Zorko > Kennedy
Karn > Kreuz (Cox to forward with Berger in ruck)
Leaves 202k

Bringing in Kennedy and dumping Karn will happen regardless.
Really want Hepp as he looks to be a must have in the backs, Grimes is good but Capt of a terrible team which may take a toll on his future scoring??
Not sure on option 2 as a Cox & Berger combo should be reliable but if Kreuz keeps this average up and avoiding the big Zorko price drop should make option 2 the better trade just not completely convinced.
Thanks for your feedback.

 

[HolyRioli]

4 players that I don't have looking like having big price rises.

Dwyer, Westhoff, JJ Kennedy, Liberatore.

Which 2 out of these guys do you think makes the most cash. Either way the same 2 guys for me get traded out.

Thinking Dwyer and Kennedy are gonna be the two best price gains from this bunch (over 3-4 rounds.) Correct or people think different

If Dwyer maintains his current form, he represents the most value in terms of cost to get him vs price rise.

However, he is a rookie player, in quite a strong team, with several first team players set to come back over the next few weeks. Where the others are all best 22 players, and comfortaby so. So you're looking at potential keepers vs cash cows.

Depends what you want to go for, whether you think they have the potential to be keepers. My view of that is:
- Libba - maybe, and it does happen, but even with 8 mid spots there's a lot of premium midfielders out there.
- Kennedy - doesn't need a lot of possessions to score well. Plays forward in a strong team.
- Westhoff - looks like a role change, playing less as an undersized, under strength KPF and more of a tall wingman / flanker. Reminds me of the roll Richo played so well for a couple of years at Richmond. Premium forwards look to be less reliable this year, so there's a good chance we could see a changing of the guard here

JMTC