Autopsy Round 4, 2023: Positives and Negatives vs Melbourne

[Alesana]

There are stats and there are stats. Seriously, what’s the point of getting the ball if you keep turning the bloody thing over or otherwise butchering your disposals. It’s demoralising for the other players on the field and it breaks supporters’ hearts. Does TK have the potential to be elite? Absolutely. Is he wonderful to watch, ball in hand? Absolutely. But is he gonna help us win games (or maybe lose less ignominiously)? No. Not until he improves his disposal. If he improved his disposal effectiveness by 25%, you’d see a marked improvement in the whole group – of that I’m sure.


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You're overstating the detraction of his disposal. Did he have some bad kicks? Yes, but he made up for it with the rest of his game IMO. Anyone improving their disposal by 25% would see a marked improvement in the whole group, so why single him out there? He also can't just magically improve his DE, as a lot of his possessions are under pressure at stoppages where he, and the best mids in the comp mind you, just have to throw it on the boot and get the clearance.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

I dunno mate, seems like each set of coaches giving Kelly votes for the past three games, including a unanimous best on ground in our win, second best on ground in the Derby plus runner up in the Glendinning medal (so the coaches and voters for the medal all independently saw that one the same) might just mean he’s helping the Eagles.

Seems like everyone is missing a great deal obviously…quite sad for them really.

Maybe (but compared to what?), and yes. My post focused on his disposal. Nobody said he’s not one of our best players. I said he could be a lot better (indeed, elite), and that that would lift the team. But you’re the Big Kohuna, and I’m not. What do you think of his disposal? Does it need improvement?


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[HoneyBadger35]

Maybe (but compared to what?), and yes. My post focused on his disposal. Nobody said he’s not one of our best players. I said he could be a lot better (indeed, elite), and that that would lift the team. But you’re the Big Kohuna, and I’m not. What do you think of his disposal? Does it need improvement?


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Yes, it would be great if he never turned it over again. But to log on and say Tim Kelly doesn’t help the team win/compete in games is laughable negativity at best and overt trolling at worst. The coaches disagree with you, the voters disagree with you, the Eagles fans disagree with you. But let’s play this out:

Marcus Bontempelli: Five fewer touches per game, same number of turnovers per game.

Christian Petracca: One fewer touch per game, same number of turnovers per game.

Josh Kelly: Two fewer touches per game, two extra turnovers per game.

Jack Steele: Two fewer touches per game, two extra turnovers per game.

Dylan Shiel: Five fewer touches per game, more turnovers per game.

Seb Ross: Four fewer touches per game, same number of turnovers.

Tim Taranto: One fewer touch per game, same number of turnovers.

Patrick Dangerfield: Eight fewer touches per game, half a turnover less per game.

What’s the point of any of these guys getting the ball? Not a winner between them.

Kelly has the most goals of this cohort too before we get into the vague “yeah but they help in other ways” retort we can all see coming a mile away. Do goals help teams win?

 

[Lazzas]

Maybe (but compared to what?), and yes. My post focused on his disposal. Nobody said he’s not one of our best players. I said he could be a lot better (indeed, elite), and that that would lift the team. But you’re the Big Kohuna, and I’m not. What do you think of his disposal? Does it need improvement?


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Leading in an undermanned midfield against close to if not the best midfield group in the AFL you are going to tire and make errors.

Kelly has shown he has elite disposal with more support around him.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

You're overstating the detraction of his disposal. Did he have some bad kicks? Yes, but he made up for it with the rest of his game IMO. Anyone improving their disposal by 25% would see a marked improvement in the whole group, so why single him out there? He also can't just magically improve his DE, as a lot of his possessions are under pressure at stoppages where he, and the best mids in the comp mind you, just have to throw it on the boot and get the clearance.

Not singling him out. Replying to a post specifically ABOUT TK. As for the rest of your post: I don’t agree. Many say he’s our best player atm. That’s probably true. Improvement on his part will have a much greater impact than a a similar proportionate improvement in a lesser player.


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[RedWeddingGuest]

Yes, it would be great if he never turned it over again. But to log on and say Tim Kelly doesn’t help the team win/compete in games is laughable negativity at best and overt trolling at worst. The coaches disagree with you, the voters disagree with you, the Eagles fans disagree with you. But let’s play this out:

Marcus Bontempelli: Five fewer touches per game, same number of turnovers per game.

Christian Petracca: One fewer touch per game, same number of turnovers per game.

Josh Kelly: Two fewer touches per game, two extra turnovers per game.

Jack Steele: Two fewer touches per game, two extra turnovers per game.

Dylan Shiel: Five fewer touches per game, more turnovers per game.

Seb Ross: Four fewer touches per game, same number of turnovers.

Tim Taranto: One fewer touch per game, same number of turnovers.

Patrick Dangerfield: Eight fewer touches per game, half a turnover less per game.

What’s the point of any of these guys getting the ball? Not a winner between them.

Kelly has the most goals of this cohort too before we get into the vague “yeah but they help in other ways” retort we can all see coming a mile away. Do goals help teams win?

Not sure why you have to be that guy. This forum is full of people expressing their opinions – about TK and every other player. They’re opinions, mate. Do you accuse others of trolling because you don’t like their opinions? “Do goals help teams win?” Seriously? But as I said, you’re the Big Kohuna and I’m not.


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[Alesana]

Not singling him out. Replying to a post specifically ABOUT TK. As for the rest of your post: I don’t agree. Many say he’s our best player atm. That’s probably true. Improvement on his part will have a much greater impact than a a similar proportionate improvement in a lesser player.


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You don't have to agree, that's fine. I think it's odd and unjust that Kelly is the guy you think needs to improve when there's some pretty strong evidence suggesting otherwise.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

You don't have to agree, that's fine. I think it's odd and unjust that Kelly is the guy you think needs to improve when there's some pretty strong evidence suggesting otherwise.

View attachment 1657532

Sheesh. I didn’t say TK is the ONLY player who needs to improve. I said he needs to improve his disposal, and that the team will benefit greatly if he does. Do you disagree with that? What’s “unjust” about saying it (even if you think he DOESN’T need to improve his disposal)? It goes without saying that the rest of the team needs to improve as well. Otherwise, you make the points as the Big Kohuna fella made.


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[Bender_]

 

[RookiePick]

Not only is Badge a Big Kohuna, I've heard he's quite the musician and has been practicing "The Rains of Castamere"

As an aside I actually agree a bit With RWG - Kelly has been missing some simple kicks when he's had space. I reckon there were 2 shots on goal that went begging in the first quarter this week. If TK gets that right it will be a huge benefit. I don't think there's too much anyone can ask from him in the cut and thrust of the guts. Nobody really has "good" disposal efficiency in there. It's about getting hands on the ball and making the best of it from there, which TK is certainly doing.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

View attachment 1657555

That doesn’t actually make sense. Dig up? But I get your point, and it’s a good one. I’ll stop digging. TK’s gone from the worst trade we ever made to everyone’s favourite son. And don’t get me wrong: that’s a bloody good thing!


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[Truckosaurus]

Fyfe won two Brownlows with a 0% DE

 

[WCErevival]

Fyfe won two Brownlows with a 0% DE

Dont forget old mate Patrick Clangerfield

 

[THE A5]

**** me dead, just ignore the user and just move on. Sometimes I wonder why migs and some others just constantly go around in circles arguing with people. Some people ****en to stubborn to conceeed they’re wrong and/or trolling and love the attention.

 

[Keys]

* me dead, just ignore the user and just move on. Sometimes I wonder why migs and some others just constantly go around in circles arguing with people. Some people *en to stubborn to conceeed they’re wrong and/or trolling and love the attention.

TK is no Jacko Nelson

Amirite?

 

[THE A5]

TK is no Jacko Nelson

Amirite?

Well TK’s yet to play 100 games for the mighty Eagles

 

[bombard]

Well TK’s yet to play 100 games for the mighty Eagles

Fret not. Jacko for the midseason draft baby.

 

[bzparkes]

Any criticism of TK would surely be recency bias from the first half on the weekend vs Melbourne. His disposal was utter trash.

There's clangers and theres clangers. TK unfortunately fell in the latter bracket for the first half of the game.

Obviously improved in the second half, thankfully.

 

[element]

A lot of the negative commentary about TK disposal stems from a very simple reason: There's a lack of players who are contributing at his level, so he sticks out like a sore thumb.

Bont will have a couple clangers per game, but you don't focus on it because they also have Dale, Smith, Macrae, Treloar, etc. all racking up similar possessions, so he's just another mid getting plenty of the ball.

Same with Oliver or Petracca, who play amongst Spargo, Viney, Langdon, Rivers. For the record, Oliver had a DE of 58%, versus TK 63%. But you probably wouldn't call Oliver's game a terrible one that didn't help his team. Look at the top possession winners from the weekend:


I saw the clangers he made versus Melbourne, and although he can definitely improve his disposal (which he did as the game progressed), he's been trying his guts out and is not the horrible player he's been made out to be. There were far less productive players. Take off the poo-coloured glasses and look at the stats objectively.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

Do what you like with these stats:

After 4 rounds, TK’s average DE is 63.4%. That places him equal 410th out of 501 players who have had at least 1 disposal this year, but I have no doubt there are many good players (including midfielders) ranked below him.

He averages 5.3 clangers per game, which places him equal 8th out of 488 players who have had at least one clanger this year. Nat Fyfe is equal 3rd with an average of 6 clangers per game, but he has played less games than TK. Fyfe is the only one of the top 10 (averaged) clanger accumulators – almost all of whom are quality midfielders – who has a lower DE% than TK, but in most cases TK isn’t far behind.

Looking at TOTAL number of clangers this year, TK is equal 5th (out of the same 488 players) with 21. Nine of the top 10 clanger accumulators are quality midfielders (the exception is Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

26

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

). Of those 9 midfielders, TK has the lowest DE% – but not by a lot.

My conclusion: TK is a great asset to the team and is not to blame for our win/loss situation (and I was wrong if I suggested otherwise) – but fewer clangers and a slightly better DE% are worthy aspirations.

Source: AFL Stats - AFL.com.au


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[bzparkes]

Do what you like with these stats:

After 4 rounds, TK’s average DE is 63.4%. That places him equal 410th out of 501 players who have had at least 1 disposal this year, but I have no doubt there are many good players (including midfielders) ranked below him.

He averages 5.3 clangers per game, which places him equal 8th out of 488 players who have had at least one clanger this year. Nat Fyfe is equal 3rd with an average of 6 clangers per game, but he has played less games than TK. Fyfe is the only one of the top 10 (averaged) clanger accumulators – almost all of whom are quality midfielders – who has a lower DE% than TK, but in most cases TK isn’t far behind.

Looking at TOTAL number of clangers this year, TK is equal 5th (out of the same 488 players) with 21. Nine of the top 10 clanger accumulators are quality midfielders (the exception is Sean Darcy). Of those 9 midfielders, TK has the lowest DE% – but not by a lot.

My conclusion: TK is a great asset to the team and is not to blame for our win/loss situation (and I was wrong if I suggested otherwise) – but fewer clangers and a slightly better DE% are worthy aspirations.

Source: AFL Stats - AFL.com.au


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Interesting stats.

Guthrie, Wines and Dangerfield I'd be mostly concerned with from that lot, considering they get significantly less disposals on average than TK.

Not sure if TK's game vs Melbourne makes his stats much worse though. It's the only time this season I believe he's been noticeably bad, and that was mostly in the first half.

 

[garlic munchers]

Any criticism of TK would surely be recency bias from the first half on the weekend vs Melbourne. His disposal was utter trash.

There's clangers and theres clangers. TK unfortunately fell in the latter bracket for the first half of the game.

Obviously improved in the second half, thankfully.

I reckon my DE would also go down playing for WC.

Makes it hard when the spuds aren't where they are supposed to be when he kick's it!

Case point that kick into the fwd line, should have hit OA on the tit.

 

[Alesana]

In other news today: sky is blue, grass is green.

 

[Keys]

In other news today: sky is blue, grass is green.

Not if it’s cloudy and the grass hasn’t been watered for a while

 

[BeornJ]

* me dead, just ignore the user and just move on. Sometimes I wonder why migs and some others just constantly go around in circles arguing with people. Some people *en to stubborn to conceeed they’re wrong and/or trolling and love the attention.

Mate, stop *en stealing my *en posts!

You've *en stolen on avg 10 of my posts per round.

You're in the top 5 for mod's association voting of stealingest poster.

Every round, this forum's efficiency goes down 20% due to your *en stealing of my *en posts!