Prediction Round 6, 2023 : Changes vs Port Adelaide

[Biggie]

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Why do a team sheet yet. Still 4 days to go.....another 3 injuries till then.

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[thebigshowperth]

So over seeing TBC let the fans know how long the players are out for.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Plenty of sides read nics taps when he was around.

So here's the thing about your opinion, it's totally baseless.
In 2021, in his most recent complete season, Naitanui had 687 hit outs and 270 were to advantage (going at 39.3% HO to advantage rate).
Conversely Gawn (the next best ruckman according to the AA selectors) had 805 hit outs and 255 were to advantage (going at 31.7% HO to advantage rate).
In fact, no ruckman who had over 100 hit outs had a HO to advantage rate remotely comparable to Naitanui.
That is to say, Naitanui was, by far, the best ruckman at ensuring retention by his team after a ruck contest (this does not include consideration for the clearances he generated himself).
This was also reflected in him being the no. 1 player for score launches in the competition.
So, sure, he got sharked, but much less than these other so called elite ruckmen of the competition.

 

[bUCKET__]

So here's the thing about your opinion, it's totally baseless.
In 2021, in his most recent complete season, Naitanui had 687 hit outs and 270 were to advantage (going at 39.3% HO to advantage rate).
Conversely Gawn (the next best ruckman according to the AA selectors) had 805 hit outs and 255 were to advantage (going at 31.7% HO to advantage rate).
In fact, no ruckman who had over 100 hit outs had a HO to advantage rate remotely comparable to Naitanui.
That is to say, Naitanui was, by far, the best ruckman at ensuring retention by his team after a ruck contest (this does not include consideration for the clearances he generated himself).
This was also reflected in him being the no. 1 player for score launches in the competition.
So, sure, he got sharked, but much less than these are so called elite ruckmen of the competition.

What is lost in these statistics - at least, how it feels to me - is not only just how dominant Nic could be, and how badly we got spanked in the midfield when the opposition got on top regardless.

I bet he had plenty of games where he hit a much higher rate to advantage. As we know, sometimes this advantage was so much more than the stat would look for another ruck too. Right out to Shuey in space on the run, inside 50, goal.

But other times when he was still getting his hand to it & directing well, we'd get smashed in the ground ball or scores from stoppages or whatever other stat you'd think would correlate with a dominant tap ruck. Our midfield unit as a whole has been beaten regularly while Naitanui was in his prime.

This is incredibly unscientific and I'm not going to bother looking for stats to back it up, but I've felt this enough to reckon there would be something out there that explains what I'm saying.

 

[BeornJ]

So here's the thing about your opinion, it's totally baseless.
In 2021, in his most recent complete season, Naitanui had 687 hit outs and 270 were to advantage (going at 39.3% HO to advantage rate).
Conversely Gawn (the next best ruckman according to the AA selectors) had 805 hit outs and 255 were to advantage (going at 31.7% HO to advantage rate).
In fact, no ruckman who had over 100 hit outs had a HO to advantage rate remotely comparable to Naitanui.
That is to say, Naitanui was, by far, the best ruckman at ensuring retention by his team after a ruck contest (this does not include consideration for the clearances he generated himself).
This was also reflected in him being the no. 1 player for score launches in the competition.
So, sure, he got sharked, but much less than these are so called elite ruckmen of the competition.

Yep yep.

You can also see how elite Naitanui was at pure tap work by the highlight videos for the AA when he and Gawn were in the team.

Gawns highlights were all marks, goals etc, Naitanui's highlights....sublime tap after sublime tap

 

[eaglespremiers]

What is lost in these statistics - at least, how it feels to me - is not only just how dominant Nic could be, and how badly we got spanked in the midfield when the opposition got on top regardless.

I bet he had plenty of games where he hit a much higher rate to advantage. As we know, sometimes this advantage was so much more than the stat would look for another ruck too. Right out to Shuey in space on the run, inside 50, goal.

But other times when he was still getting his hand to it & directing well, we'd get smashed in the ground ball or scores from stoppages or whatever other stat you'd think would correlate with a dominant tap ruck. Our midfield unit as a whole has been beaten regularly while Naitanui was in his prime.

This is incredibly unscientific and I'm not going to bother looking for stats to back it up, but I've felt this enough to reckon there would be something out there that explains what I'm saying.

In 2021 we won or drew about even in clearances in the vast majority of our games.
In three games we were beaten comprehensively in clearances:
1. Round 4 v St Kilda (45 v 30, i50s -17);
2. Round 15 v Bulldogs (44 v 29, i50s -22); and
3. Round 16 v Sydney (40 v 29, i50s -20).

In Round 5 Naitanui had 36 hit-outs, 10 hit-outs to advantage and 7 clearances from 63 ruck contests. That means that approximately 68% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely Carlisle (his direct opponent) impacted 34% of the ruck contests he competed in and Marshall (the other ruck opponent) impacted 39.5% of the ruck contests he competed in.
In Round 15 Naitanui had 39 hit-outs, 11 hit-outs to advantage and 8 clearances from 63 ruck contests. That means that approximately 75% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely English (his direct opponent) impacted 34% of the ruck contests he competed in.
In Round 16 Naitanui had 25 hit-outs, 12 hit-outs to advantage and 3 clearances from 54 ruck contests. That means that approximately 53% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely Hickey (his direct opponent) impacted 37.5% of the ruck contests he competed in.

I do think that it needs to be factored in how much Naitanui contributed even in the games we got crushed in the clearances.
In round 5 if you take off Naitanui's 10 clearances, the team had a remaining 20 clearances between them. Naitanui had 10 HOs to advantage which may have all resulted in clearances but let's be conservative and say that 70% of them did. That would mean that 57% of our clearances for the game were directly caused by Naitanui. Similarly round 15 Naitanui would have directly generated 55% of our clearances. Finally Round 16 Naitanui would have directly generated 38% of our clearances.

On reflection Round 16 isn't great for Naitanui (but none of our players were good in a huge loss).
What this shows, however, is statistically even when we are beaten comprehensively in the clearances Naitanui is substantially better than his opponent at the clearances. We do see lower percentages of hit outs to advantage rates in rounds 5 and 15 (28%) than his standard rate (39.3%) so there is some credence to your opinion that teams are sharking in those circumstances, however, it cannot be overstated how much a team sport AFL is. With 17 teammates on the field at any given time you can beat your opponent countless times but unless you are playing deep forward it may not translate to the scoreboard unless your teammates are able to properly execute their roles. Our midfield, in recent years has demonstrated that they often put our backline under pressure with one-way traffic, do not provide our forward line with enough opportunities to kick a winning score and principally squander any dominance that Naitanui had.

Also, we never got to see Naitanui in his prime. That was taken away from us.
Given what we saw Naitanui produce on either side of it (2015-mid-2016, late 2019-2021) that would've been something to behold.

 

[bUCKET__]

In 2021 we won or drew about even in clearances in the vast majority of our games.
In three games we were beaten comprehensively in clearances:
1. Round 4 v St Kilda (45 v 30, i50s -17);
2. Round 15 v Bulldogs (44 v 29, i50s -22); and
3. Round 16 v Sydney (40 v 29, i50s -20).

In Round 5 Naitanui had 36 hit-outs, 10 hit-outs to advantage and 7 clearances from 63 ruck contests. That means that approximately 68% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely Carlisle (his direct opponent) impacted 34% of the ruck contests he competed in and Marshall (the other ruck opponent) impacted 39.5% of the ruck contests he competed in.
In Round 15 Naitanui had 39 hit-outs, 11 hit-outs to advantage and 8 clearances from 63 ruck contests. That means that approximately 75% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely English (his direct opponent) impacted 34% of the ruck contests he competed in.
In Round 16 Naitanui had 25 hit-outs, 12 hit-outs to advantage and 3 clearances from 54 ruck contests. That means that approximately 53% of the ruck contests he competed in he won the hit out or directly won the clearance himself. Conversely Hickey (his direct opponent) impacted 37.5% of the ruck contests he competed in.

I do think that it needs to be factored in how much Naitanui contributed even in the games we got crushed in the clearances.
In round 5 if you take off Naitanui's 10 clearances, the team had a remaining 20 clearances between them. Naitanui had 10 HOs to advantage which may have all resulted in clearances but let's be conservative and say that 70% of them did. That would mean that 57% of our clearances for the game were directly caused by Naitanui. Similarly round 15 Naitanui would have directly generated 55% of our clearances. Finally Round 16 Naitanui would have directly generated 38% of our clearances.

On reflection Round 16 isn't great for Naitanui (but none of our players were good in a huge loss).
What this shows, however, is statistically even when we are beaten comprehensively in the clearances Naitanui is substantially better than his opponent at the clearances. We do see lower percentages of hit outs to advantage rates in rounds 5 and 15 (28%) than his standard rate (39.3%) so there is some credence to your opinion that teams are sharking in those circumstances, however, it cannot be overstated how much a team sport AFL is. With 17 teammates on the field at any given time you can beat your opponent countless times but unless you are playing deep forward it may not translate to the scoreboard unless your teammates are able to properly execute their roles. Our midfield, in recent years has demonstrated that they often put our backline under pressure with one-way traffic, do not provide our forward line with enough opportunities to kick a winning score and principally squander any dominance that Naitanui had.

Also, we never got to see Naitanui in his prime. That was taken away from us.
Given what we saw Naitanui produce on either side of it (2015-mid-2016, late 2019-2021) that would've been something to behold.

Yeah was definitely more a long-term feeling than an opinion, fwiw.

But I definitely believe nowadays that to a very large extent a ruck is going to be judged as good as the unit around them. Despite individual match-ups. Even so, you gotta put that at the feet of the coaches at least as much as the player. I reckon even the biggest Naitanui critics around here would agree with that.

Late-career Naitanui has been a bulldozer at stoppages, and incomparable to his 2018 tap game. Dominant in different ways. Didn't see him in his prime, but got to see him adapt his game massively like few players do. It'd be interesting to compare the difference stats-wise, but pls don't put the effort again unless I'm buying you a beer at least

 

[Cuzz09]

I'm just saying if we don't have a ruckman then maybe just try something left field.



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[KERRPOW]

So those out injured: williams, yeo
In: hurn, trew?

 

[Keys]

Subject to any more training mishaps or other mystery injuries :

Shuey for Yeo, straight swap with Shuey coming off half back

Then,

if Jamieson isn’t fit :
• Hurn for Williams with Rotham moving from defence into the ruck
• Trew for Ginbey in the 22 and Ginbey replacing West as the sub

or

if Jamieson is fit :
• Jamieson for Williams straight swap
• Hurn for Ginbey in the 22 and Ginbey replacing West as the sub

Ideally, Jamieson is fit. Rotham going up against Lycett (and Dixon on occasion) isn’t a fair fight. We also need Rotham as a KPD to help Barrass combat Dixon, Marshall and Finlayson.

West needs a full game and he’d be better served doing that in the WAFL

Ginbey is sore so give him a run as sub to ease his load

Trew deserves an opportunity but only if Jamieson isn’t fit as I don’t know which mid to come out for him

 

[joeyavalanche]

Getting to the point where a match with no injuries gives me the same feeling as a win


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[Keys]

Getting to the point where a match with no injuries gives me the same feeling as a win


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The last time we had a match with no injuries, we won

Went into the next game with an unchanged lineup

Then six players got injured

Some might say that’s bad luck

 

[Barrybran]

Sheed several weeks??

 

[Truckosaurus]

Getting to the point where a match with no injuries gives me the same feeling as a win


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I'm at the point where a training session with no injuries feels like a win.

 

[WCErevival]

Isn't Lycett on his last legs these days? A lack of ruckman may not be too bad this week.

 

[Cuzz09]

Hope they drop Rioli coz u know he's gonna kick a bag and dance around everyone then do a slap in the face post game interview.

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[FKASC]

Hope they drop Rioli coz u know he's gonna kick a bag and dance around everyone then do a slap in the face post game interview.

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Backflip? I’d like to see that

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

So over seeing TBC let the fans know how long the players are out for.

Our fans put up with it so why would they change?

Unfortunately our weak fans just let the club do whatever.

Nisbett aint changing til it hurts his wallet

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Hope they drop Rioli coz u know he's gonna kick a bag and dance around everyone then do a slap in the face post game interview.

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He'll probably just say "Port is a family club" over and over in the interview.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

He'll probably just say "Port is a family club" over and over in the interview.

He could just say

"At Port I get to play football as opposed to have surgery on my legs so thats a big positive so far"

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

He could just say

"At Port I get to play football as opposed to have surgery on my legs so thats a big positive so far"

Would be refreshing to hear some different words coming out of his mouth for once tbh.

 

[Seadog]

Our fans put up with it so why would they change?

Unfortunately our weak fans just let the club do whatever.

Nisbett aint changing til it hurts his wallet

What! Nisbett gets a pay cut if enough people complain?
Nobody told me that.
I'm making my poster right now.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Our fans put up with it so why would they change?

Unfortunately our weak fans just let the club do whatever.

Nisbett aint changing til it hurts his wallet

What would less “weak” fans do about it?

 

[Ochre]

What would less “weak” fans do about it?

Let me guess, you slept in your own bed last night?