News Sam Hayes signs for North Melbourne VFL

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Two separate issues.

Whether Sam Hayes didn’t get another gig because of his management at Port.

And two, port’s development of talls.

As to number one:
  • no club needed to give him a spot, they just had to have him train on spot. Numerous clubs could use a ready made AFL ruck. For whatever reason, Sam didn’t get a train on spot.
  • multiple players got traded on little or no exposed form. Sam would have been no different
  • Ladhams and Teakle were young rucks backed in by the club (they were the wrong rucks so this doesn’t count according to fans). Ladhams had off field issues and got picked up by Sydney. Teakle played six games were his opponent was BOG and had their best games ever, got a train on at the premiers and an eventual spot at North.
  • Hayes had 4 games in 2023, plenty to show that he had something at AFL level and warranted someone having a look. Had he played instead of Teakle and notched another 6 games, would that have made a difference?
  • as to playing behind part timers. Finlayson rated highly as a ruck and from his own CD points whilst he played as a ruck.

I think it’s disingenuous to suggest port drove Hayes into the ground such that he was worth nothing. Even had he been worth a pick, it’s likely it would have been comparable or less than Sweet. So maybe a third or fourth rounder at best.

As to port’s development of talls, I would think we are average in the AFL. We should be better than that. However there are lots of factors.
To be average that would mean we are ahead of at least 6-8 clubs. Can you name one?
 
To be average that would mean we are ahead of at least 6-8 clubs. Can you name one?
Yup.

Development being a minimum of thirty games, only a third of players full stop reach 30 games.

We’ve developed Marshall and Georgiades. Both are first round picks. We have three key forwards picked in the first round since 2009. All three reach the thirty games mark. Two look likely to be good to average AFL key forwards.

We’ve had two second round KPFs, both are busts. Which is what every other team manages, bar Amartey, Larkey, Treacy, Tabner and Lewis, and excluding mature agers, zones, academies etc. Lord (third round) may reach thirty games too.

Defenders are different but we’ve done well there. Jonas, Clurey, Howard all have reached at least 30 games. Lienert 23 games, Logan Austin scored us a pick at basically what we selected him, Frampton is till on a list - that down to Us? The crows? The Pies? Bit of all three? Pasini and Grundy were busts. McCallum and Marshall likely to but Walsh maybe has some promise.

Rucks is poor for us but we aren’t alone. Lobbe is a success but taken in 2007. Redden, Hayes, but failures. Ladhams got to 32 games so is a ‘success’. Teakle is also a fail but is on another list. Visentini is showing something.

I’ve probably missed a couple of names and I haven’t included trades but there is a case to make that Schulz, Hombsch, Alir, McKenzie all lifted at Port, Dixon and Ryder stayed about the same and Finlayson registered elite states as a ruck/forward in 2022. Soldo and Sweet look like AFL quality rucks and BZT has been up and down but better than when he was at the Dons. Ratugolea is a fail thus far.

Contrast us to Melbourne, Sydney, North, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Essendon, really anyone outside of Freo, the Eagles, the Crows and Geelong, although Geelong’s inability to develop a ruck is well know. Sydney brought in Tippett, Franklin and Grundy. Melbourne acquired Lever, May, Brown, Tomlinson, Grundy. Those clubs that have been very successful have also had the picks, or academy or father sons. Port hasn’t had this.

So yup I would say we are in the middle of the pack in terms of developing talls and have actually not done too badly. People love Butch, Hayes, Pasini and a handful of others and point to them as being evidence of our failings. Every team has misses.
 
Yup.

Development being a minimum of thirty games, only a third of players full stop reach 30 games.

We’ve developed Marshall and Georgiades. Both are first round picks. We have three key forwards picked in the first round since 2009. All three reach the thirty games mark. Two look likely to be good to average AFL key forwards.

We’ve had two second round KPFs, both are busts. Which is what every other team manages, bar Amartey, Larkey, Treacy, Tabner and Lewis, and excluding mature agers, zones, academies etc. Lord (third round) may reach thirty games too.

Defenders are different but we’ve done well there. Jonas, Clurey, Howard all have reached at least 30 games. Lienert 23 games, Logan Austin scored us a pick at basically what we selected him, Frampton is till on a list - that down to Us? The crows? The Pies? Bit of all three? Pasini and Grundy were busts. McCallum and Marshall likely to but Walsh maybe has some promise.

Rucks is poor for us but we aren’t alone. Lobbe is a success but taken in 2007. Redden, Hayes, but failures. Ladhams got to 32 games so is a ‘success’. Teakle is also a fail but is on another list. Visentini is showing something.

I’ve probably missed a couple of names and I haven’t included trades but there is a case to make that Schulz, Hombsch, Alir, McKenzie all lifted at Port, Dixon and Ryder stayed about the same and Finlayson registered elite states as a ruck/forward in 2022. Soldo and Sweet look like AFL quality rucks and BZT has been up and down but better than when he was at the Dons. Ratugolea is a fail thus far.

Contrast us to Melbourne, Sydney, North, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Essendon, really anyone outside of Freo, the Eagles, the Crows and Geelong, although Geelong’s inability to develop a ruck is well know. Sydney brought in Tippett, Franklin and Grundy. Melbourne acquired Lever, May, Brown, Tomlinson, Grundy. Those clubs that have been very successful have also had the picks, or academy or father sons. Port hasn’t had this.

So yup I would say we are in the middle of the pack in terms of developing talls and have actually not done too badly. People love Butch, Hayes, Pasini and a handful of others and point to them as being evidence of our failings. Every team has misses.
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That’s good.
Declaring any player who plays 30 games as a 'success' is one of the most braindead takes I've ever seen. If you want to include anybody who's ever played 30 games as a 'success', there would be a bunch of spuds you've never heard of who you'd have to add as 'successes' for every other team. And do you know why you haven't heard of them? Because they're spuds who only played about 30 games.

We haven't drafted and developed a player over 190cm into a long term high quality AFL player since Dean Brogan. Georgiades looks like he might be the first guy for literal decades to buck the trend, but that's still a disgraceful strike rate.
 
Yup.

Development being a minimum of thirty games, only a third of players full stop reach 30 games.

We’ve developed Marshall and Georgiades. Both are first round picks. We have three key forwards picked in the first round since 2009. All three reach the thirty games mark. Two look likely to be good to average AFL key forwards.

We’ve had two second round KPFs, both are busts. Which is what every other team manages, bar Amartey, Larkey, Treacy, Tabner and Lewis, and excluding mature agers, zones, academies etc. Lord (third round) may reach thirty games too.

Defenders are different but we’ve done well there. Jonas, Clurey, Howard all have reached at least 30 games. Lienert 23 games, Logan Austin scored us a pick at basically what we selected him, Frampton is till on a list - that down to Us? The crows? The Pies? Bit of all three? Pasini and Grundy were busts. McCallum and Marshall likely to but Walsh maybe has some promise.

Rucks is poor for us but we aren’t alone. Lobbe is a success but taken in 2007. Redden, Hayes, but failures. Ladhams got to 32 games so is a ‘success’. Teakle is also a fail but is on another list. Visentini is showing something.

I’ve probably missed a couple of names and I haven’t included trades but there is a case to make that Schulz, Hombsch, Alir, McKenzie all lifted at Port, Dixon and Ryder stayed about the same and Finlayson registered elite states as a ruck/forward in 2022. Soldo and Sweet look like AFL quality rucks and BZT has been up and down but better than when he was at the Dons. Ratugolea is a fail thus far.

Contrast us to Melbourne, Sydney, North, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Essendon, really anyone outside of Freo, the Eagles, the Crows and Geelong, although Geelong’s inability to develop a ruck is well know. Sydney brought in Tippett, Franklin and Grundy. Melbourne acquired Lever, May, Brown, Tomlinson, Grundy. Those clubs that have been very successful have also had the picks, or academy or father sons. Port hasn’t had this.

So yup I would say we are in the middle of the pack in terms of developing talls and have actually not done too badly. People love Butch, Hayes, Pasini and a handful of others and point to them as being evidence of our failings. Every team has misses.
I see now how you disagree. You have a very different definition of a tall to me.

Mitch Georgiades is 1.92m tall. Tom Jonas is 1.88m tall. For reference Ollie Wines sits in the middle of these blokes at 1.9m. For key position players they are about as short as it gets. Them getting games if anything shows our obsession with not developing talls more.
 
I see now how you disagree. You have a very different definition of a tall to me.

Mitch Georgiades is 1.92m tall. Tom Jonas is 1.88m tall. For reference Ollie Wines sits in the middle of these blokes at 1.9m. For key position players they are about as short as it gets. Them getting games if anything shows our obsession with not developing talls more.
Except they play the role of a tall player. Height doesn’t really come into it. It’s the ability of a player to complete the role.

Wilkie is 190cm and one of the best FB in the game. Sam Taylor is 194cm. Cripps and the Bont are 194cm and the best midfielders in the game. Marshall and Finlayson are 197cm, a whole 5cm taller than Mitch. Finlayson also rucks, where he has rated elite, despite being between 5-10cm shorter than his opponents.

Out of interest, which ‘tall’ player should be getting games ahead of Mitch? Which tall players should we have played ahead of Jonas, Hombsch and Clurey? How tall does a player need to be to fit with your definition of a KPP?
 
Declaring any player who plays 30 games as a 'success' is one of the most braindead takes I've ever seen. If you want to include anybody who's ever played 30 games as a 'success', there would be a bunch of spuds you've never heard of who you'd have to add as 'successes' for every other team. And do you know why you haven't heard of them? Because they're spuds who only played about 30 games.

We haven't drafted and developed a player over 190cm into a long term high quality AFL player since Dean Brogan. Georgiades looks like he might be the first guy for literal decades to buck the trend, but that's still a disgraceful strike rate.
Brain dead - yeah nice. Except two thirds of players never reach 30 games - that’s all players drafted not just talls. If you reach 30 games you’re ahead of two thirds of your peers - that puts you above average and makes you a success.

Bearing in mind 8 tall players make up your 23, so your chance of reaching the first 23 is less than if you’re a small. Equally once you’re locked in as a tall, there aren’t many opportunities to rotate players. Ie Brodie Grundy playing ruck at the swans means those below him will look for opportunities elsewhere. Sweet left the dogs for more opportunities.

A long term quality AFL player, that’s BS man. Jonas, Clurey, Marshall - all 100% successes. But let’s use whatever your BS metric is. Melbourne has produced… Gawn. The crows have produced…. Walker? Talia? North have produced Larkey? If every team has got one or two player successes, that also means port are average in producing talls - ie big standard in the AFL.
 
Except they play the role of a tall player. Height doesn’t really come into it. It’s the ability of a player to complete the role.

Wilkie is 190cm and one of the best FB in the game. Sam Taylor is 194cm. Cripps and the Bont are 194cm and the best midfielders in the game. Marshall and Finlayson are 197cm, a whole 5cm taller than Mitch. Finlayson also rucks, where he has rated elite, despite being between 5-10cm shorter than his opponents.

Out of interest, which ‘tall’ player should be getting games ahead of Mitch? Which tall players should we have played ahead of Jonas, Hombsch and Clurey? How tall does a player need to be to fit with your definition of a KPP?
Thats exactly the point though.

When we have a chance to play a tall, we choose instead to play someone that can "play the role of a tall". This is why we dont develop talls.

Im not necessarily saying we should be playing anyone over MG, but him getting games certainly hurts the argument we develop talls well.

Plenty of talls should have been marking forwards over Sam Gray for a start.
 
A long term quality AFL player, that’s BS man. Jonas, Clurey, Marshall - all 100% successes. But let’s use whatever your BS metric is. Melbourne has produced… Gawn. The crows have produced…. Walker? Talia? North have produced Larkey? If every team has got one or two player successes, that also means port are average in producing talls - ie big standard in the AFL.
This is genuine delusion my friend.

You named Walker who was drafted in 2007, so let's go back and have a look since 2007. Because I can't be bothered doing this for every club, let's just use the three teams you named. But I'm using 100 games as my metric rather than your pisspoor 30 games.

Adelaide - Taylor Walker, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten, Kyle Hartigan, Reilly O'Brien, Tom Doedee, Darcy Fogarty, Phil Davis*, Jake Lever*. Riley Thilthorpe and Jordon Butts to come.

Melbourne - Jack Watts, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe, Tom Macdonald, Stefan Martin*, Jesse Hogan*, Luke Jackson*. Jacob van Rooyen to come.

North Melbourne - Todd Goldstein, Robbie Tarrant, Scott Thompson, Ben Brown, Nick Larkey, Cameron Zurhaar, Mason Wood*, Ben McKay*. Tristan Xerri and Charlie Comben to come.

And now, Port Adelaide's list:

Port Adelaide - Jackson Trengove, Tom Clurey, Todd Marshall, Dougal Howard*. Mitch Georgiades to come.

Still think we're 'league average'? We've drafted four 100 game talls in 16 years, and one of them was playing SANFL for us before we traded him. None of them have ever been anything more than B graders. None of them have ever so much has sniffed an AA spot or any other league-wide recognition.
 
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It's such a stupid argument as recruiting plays a massive part in the outcome.
 
This is genuine delusion my friend.

You named Walker who was drafted in 2007, so let's go back and have a look since 2007. Because I can't be bothered doing this for every club, let's just use the three teams you named. But I'm using 100 games as my metric rather than your pisspoor 30 games.

Adelaide - Taylor Walker, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten, Kyle Hartigan, Reilly O'Brien, Tom Doedee, Darcy Fogarty, Phil Davis*, Jake Lever*. Riley Thilthorpe and Jordon Butts to come.

Melbourne - Jack Watts, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe, Tom Macdonald, Stefan Martin*, Jesse Hogan*, Luke Jackson*. Jacob van Rooyen to come.

North Melbourne - Todd Goldstein, Robbie Tarrant, Scott Thompson, Ben Brown, Nick Larkey, Cameron Zurhaar, Mason Wood*, Ben McKay*. Tristan Xerri and Charlie Comben to come.

And now, Port Adelaide's list:

Port Adelaide - Jackson Trengove, Tom Clurey, Todd Marshall, Dougal Howard*. Mitch Georgiades to come.

Still think we're 'league average'? We've drafted four 100 game talls in 16 years, and one of them was playing SANFL for us before we traded him. None of them have ever been anything more than B graders. None of them have ever so much has sniffed an AA spot or any other league-wide recognition.
Ok 100 games is fine.

You’ve missed Jonas. Lobbe notched 92 games.

And yea I do think we are league average. What we’ve drafted and the successes we’ve had.

By my count 4 first rounders - Lobbe, Butcher, Marshall and Georgiades. Butch is a bust by your 100 games metric. Lobbe falls 8 games short so is a bust too. Marshall is a tick and Mitch, wait to see. These are your best chances at success, one definite miss, one just miss and two wait and see. 50%

Trengove, Clurey, Harvey, Shaw are the second rounders. Few if any make it as a key forward in this range. Trengove and Clurey are both ticks. 50%

Outside of that it is a crapshoot with players full stop, let alone talls.
Howard, Jonas, are both successes. Jonas was AA squad 2020.

As I said, part of the challenge is opportunities.

We’ve had Hombsch notch 89 games for us - he came to us fairly early so you could say his development was on us. Hip injuries crippled him. Jay Schulz placed second in the Coleman and played 120 ish games. Carlile finished in 2016 after 160 odd games. Dixon has played over 100 games and was AA. Ryder was an AA ruck for us. Alir has been AA for us. Hard to get games into low draft pick players when we have talented players ahead of them. You can make the argument that Hayes and Pasini should have had an extra 10-25 games but it wouldn’t have changed our need to trade as we did, (although I 100% agree with you that we should have chased Grundy and McKay harder) nor the fact that we are average in drafting and developing KPPs.

The Crows have Talia x 2 and Walker x 1 - AA gurnseys. 3 of our talls have AAs in the same period with one extra in the squad.
 

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Ok 100 games is fine.

You’ve missed Jonas. Lobbe notched 92 games.

And yea I do think we are league average. What we’ve drafted and the successes we’ve had.

By my count 4 first rounders - Lobbe, Butcher, Marshall and Georgiades. Butch is a bust by your 100 games metric. Lobbe falls 8 games short so is a bust too. Marshall is a tick and Mitch, wait to see. These are your best chances at success, one definite miss, one just miss and two wait and see. 50%

Trengove, Clurey, Harvey, Shaw are the second rounders. Few if any make it as a key forward in this range. Trengove and Clurey are both ticks. 50%

Outside of that it is a crapshoot with players full stop, let alone talls.
Howard, Jonas, are both successes. Jonas was AA squad 2020.

As I said, part of the challenge is opportunities.

We’ve had Hombsch notch 89 games for us - he came to us fairly early so you could say his development was on us. Hip injuries crippled him. Jay Schulz placed second in the Coleman and played 120 ish games. Carlile finished in 2016 after 160 odd games. Dixon has played over 100 games and was AA. Ryder was an AA ruck for us. Alir has been AA for us. Hard to get games into low draft pick players when we have talented players ahead of them. You can make the argument that Hayes and Pasini should have had an extra 10-25 games but it wouldn’t have changed our need to trade as we did, (although I 100% agree with you that we should have chased Grundy and McKay harder) nor the fact that we are average in drafting and developing KPPs.

The Crows have Talia x 2 and Walker x 1 - AA gurnseys. 3 of our talls have AAs in the same period with one extra in the squad.
I can't be bothered going over this point by point, so I'm just going to say the most important thing. You cannot count Dixon, Ryder and Aliir making the AA squad as our 'development'. Obviously. They all came to us over the age of 25.
 
I can't be bothered going over this point by point, so I'm just going to say the most important thing. You cannot count Dixon, Ryder and Aliir making the AA squad as our 'development'. Obviously. They all came to us over the age of 25.
I wasn’t.

I was pointing to the fact it’s hard to reach 100 games if you have talented players ahead of you.

Redden had great potential but couldn’t get games because he was injured or others were ahead of him. Frampton wasn’t going to play ahead of Ryder and Lobbe. Alir, BZT and Ratugolea are our three key backs currently, good chance that those under them won’t get sustained runs for years to come.

Jonas and Lycett got played too long. Teakle, regardless of talent, is an example of port trialling someone young ahead of the established players when the older players time is up. You may have wanted Hayes, fair enough too, but it’s unlikely to have changed our need to bring someone in later in the trade period. Lord was slated to start the season ahead of Dixon - we will never know if it’s true or not.

Point is we have developed generally ok with the picks we have had and the opportunities available.
 
I wasn’t.

I was pointing to the fact it’s hard to reach 100 games if you have talented players ahead of you.

Redden had great potential but couldn’t get games because he was injured or others were ahead of him. Frampton wasn’t going to play ahead of Ryder and Lobbe. Alir, BZT and Ratugolea are our three key backs currently, good chance that those under them won’t get sustained runs for years to come.

Jonas and Lycett got played too long. Teakle, regardless of talent, is an example of port trialling someone young ahead of the established players when the older players time is up. You may have wanted Hayes, fair enough too, but it’s unlikely to have changed our need to bring someone in later in the trade period. Lord was slated to start the season ahead of Dixon - we will never know if it’s true or not.

Point is we have developed generally ok with the picks we have had and the opportunities available.
Okay. If you can look at the four lists I posted above and still think that we're developing talls at a 'league average' rate, I'm not going to waste any more time trying to open your other eye.
 
I'm not too sure using Tom Jonas's AA squad nom as an eg of the club's record of developing, or not developing talls is the way to go.

My understanding of how All Australian squads are chosen is the selectors are given parameters on how many players can be selected in the initial squad who are vying for the same position in the final team, and many of those chosen in those initial squads don't have much if any realistic chance of being selected in the actual team anyway, so due to the lack of numbers the chances of a 3rd tall defender or back pocket player being chosen in an extended squad would be much greater than that of eg a midfielder.

Daryl Wakelin was arguably the unlucky Port tall defender to miss out on All Australian selection, he was developed at Alberton, played in a senior flag with the Maggies, did a more than serviceable job on Wayne Carey in his first AFL game when that player was at his peak, and was chosen in at least one All Australian squad (it may have been two) without making the final cut!
 
I'm not too sure using Tom Jonas's AA squad nom as an eg of the club's record of developing, or not developing talls is the way to go.

My understanding of how All Australian squads are chosen is the selectors are given parameters on how many players can be selected in the initial squad who are vying for the same position in the final team, and many of those chosen in those initial squads don't have much if any realistic chance of being selected in the actual team anyway, so due to the lack of numbers the chances of a 3rd tall defender or back pocket player being chosen in an extended squad would be much greater than that of eg a midfielder.

Daryl Wakelin was arguably the unlucky Port tall defender to miss out on All Australian selection, he was developed at Alberton, played in a senior flag with the Maggies, did a more than serviceable job on Wayne Carey in his first AFL game when that player was at his peak, and was chosen in at least one All Australian squad (it may have been two) without making the final cut!
That was an awfully long post when all you needed to put at the end of your first sentence was 'because Tom Jonas isn't a tall'.
 
We haven't developed a genuinely high quality KPF or ruckman since Dean Brogan. It's absolutely insane to call our tall development "average". Literally every other club is demonstrably better at it.

2 of our top 4 KPFs, our top 2 ruckman and our best 4 key defenders were recruited from other clubs at great expense. Half the forum will tell you that Marshall isn't AFL quality.

We've developed a few AFL quality KPDs, but it's an easier position to play. None have been All Australian though.

Georgiades might buck the trend, but we said the same about Marshall 2 years ago and he's stagnated.

We've spent a fortune in draft capital on KPPs and rucks over the past decade. A staggering amount.
 
We gave games to Damon White, Ryan Willits, Daniel Stewart, Matthew Westhoff, John Butcher between 2004 and 2014.

What teams do that develop their talls is persist with them in a structure that allows them to get 4 touches for 20-30 games. Logan McDonald moved well but did SFA for two years. Josh Kennedy was steak knives in the Chris Judd trade but was persisted with. I am still Convinced Darcy Fogarty is being played at the wrong end of the ground but even the Crom are persisting with him.

I’m not saying Lord is the second coming on WGT but there are so many ready to turf him when what we need to do is Nuture him through the next 20 games and see how he is. The same as Scully and Visintini, we have a few Giraffes who need to get ~50 games into them as soon as possible, will they be world beaters? Who cares, I don’t think since Tredrea, Lockwood, Lade, Auckland and French have we had so much ability in our young big boys as we do right now. We have invested in them, develop them and re stock the reserves with the next set in 2025-2026.

Are we better investing the next 7 games into Visintini and Sweet, or Finlayson and Dixon?

I think Defending is a little different and Kyle Marshall, like Scully is well off the mark, but in two years - putting size and strength on, he will be a reasonable footballer.
 
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