Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club and 2024 news

[Strapping Young Lad]

If anyone wants to have a listen about what the data is saying in regards to whether we have actually gotten worse this year have a listen to this from the 9:15 mark.

I know a few people have already touched on it, but the data is also showing that our results this year have been slightly better despite actually putting out a younger team and dealing with some injuries.




And here.

 

[extractasam]

Some of those losses were heart breaking. We had opportunities to win and couldn't take them.

I’d do it all over again too if it meant I got to re-live that 13 prelim.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Things I've noticed since Will Day has returned to the side (which I haven't verified looking at stats) Note that I'll exclude the Sydney game as an outlier now.

1. Almost NO easy centre bounce exits for the opposition. Early in the season this would be the quick reply to us busitng chops and finally getting a goal.
2. End to end movement is a thing of absolute beauty. Some of the passages of play are breathtaking from defense to shot on goal. There were 3 or 4 of these against Brisbane.
3. Red time goals (aside from one painful game) have swung around and we are the ones kicking them. Big difference
4. We are rushing at the ball receiver to tackle instead of the ball carrier. Makes a huge difference in stoppages.
5. We're not getting pushed around. Not letting nasty acts from the opposition go unnoticed. I usually hate all that huff and puff but it's been a noticeable shift.
6. Backline is back to looking rock solid. No longer am I nervous with opposition long bombs into the forward line. Pretty confident we'll kill that.
7. Opposition aren't really getting a run on. They can grind us down but they're not hitting us with 4 or 5 goals in 5 minutes. (Thank god)
8. The goals really get spread around. You never know whos going to kick them for us. Sometimes it's Chol and Gunston, sometimes it's a bunch of smalls kicking 2 each.

 

[flinchfree]

Things I've noticed since Will Day has returned to the side (which I haven't verified looking at stats) Note that I'll exclude the Sydney game as an outlier now.

.................................

4. We are rushing at the ball receiver to tackle instead of the ball carrier. Makes a huge difference in stoppages.​

5. We're not getting pushed around. Not letting nasty acts from the opposition go unnoticed. I usually hate all that huff and puff but it's been a noticeable shift.
6. Backline is back to looking rock solid. No longer am I nervous with opposition long bombs into the forward line. Pretty confident we'll kill that.
7. Opposition aren't really getting a run on. They can grind us down but they're not hitting us with 4 or 5 goals in 5 minutes. (Thank god)
8. The goals really get spread around. You never know whos going to kick them for us. Sometimes it's Chol and Gunston, sometimes it's a bunch of smalls kicking 2 each.

This is what the really really good pressure teams do.
Pies, Blues, Swannies, all do it brilliantly.
We can turn the oppo over even more if this becomes synergistic and contagious.
Once the boys get a taste for it we'll be hunting and hurting everyone.

 

[SSSSSS]

Things I've noticed since Will Day has returned to the side (which I haven't verified looking at stats) Note that I'll exclude the Sydney game as an outlier now.

1. Almost NO easy centre bounce exits for the opposition. Early in the season this would be the quick reply to us busitng chops and finally getting a goal.
2. End to end movement is a thing of absolute beauty. Some of the passages of play are breathtaking from defense to shot on goal. There were 3 or 4 of these against Brisbane.
3. Red time goals (aside from one painful game) have swung around and we are the ones kicking them. Big difference
4. We are rushing at the ball receiver to tackle instead of the ball carrier. Makes a huge difference in stoppages.
5. We're not getting pushed around. Not letting nasty acts from the opposition go unnoticed. I usually hate all that huff and puff but it's been a noticeable shift.
6. Backline is back to looking rock solid. No longer am I nervous with opposition long bombs into the forward line. Pretty confident we'll kill that.
7. Opposition aren't really getting a run on. They can grind us down but they're not hitting us with 4 or 5 goals in 5 minutes. (Thank god)
8. The goals really get spread around. You never know whos going to kick them for us. Sometimes it's Chol and Gunston, sometimes it's a bunch of smalls kicking 2 each.

Day is the best of our midfielders by far at releasing the ball at the very last second. He has the uncanny ability to not only draw his direct opponent but also the next before releasing a player into space.

Zero panic.

He used to get caught HTB a fair bit a few years ago but he's in the matrix now.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Things I've noticed since Will Day has returned to the side (which I haven't verified looking at stats) Note that I'll exclude the Sydney game as an outlier now.

1. Almost NO easy centre bounce exits for the opposition. Early in the season this would be the quick reply to us busitng chops and finally getting a goal.
2. End to end movement is a thing of absolute beauty. Some of the passages of play are breathtaking from defense to shot on goal. There were 3 or 4 of these against Brisbane.
3. Red time goals (aside from one painful game) have swung around and we are the ones kicking them. Big difference
4. We are rushing at the ball receiver to tackle instead of the ball carrier. Makes a huge difference in stoppages.
5. We're not getting pushed around. Not letting nasty acts from the opposition go unnoticed. I usually hate all that huff and puff but it's been a noticeable shift.
6. Backline is back to looking rock solid. No longer am I nervous with opposition long bombs into the forward line. Pretty confident we'll kill that.
7. Opposition aren't really getting a run on. They can grind us down but they're not hitting us with 4 or 5 goals in 5 minutes. (Thank god)
8. The goals really get spread around. You never know whos going to kick them for us. Sometimes it's Chol and Gunston, sometimes it's a bunch of smalls kicking 2 each.

Point 4!! I've been like a dog with a bone about that part of our game. Even as far as back to clarko's 2019-21 years. We were awful at that , always pushing players to the player with the ball instead of the receiver. Huge turnaround in that aspect of our game.

 

[Flukey!]

On top of this stat below we are also 2nd in the comp over the last 5 games for Shots on goal per inside 50.

1st in the comp over the same period for Score from kick ins. Thanks Karl!

Which show is that from?

 

[Bugs1977]

IMO we have taken a step in the right direction this season which is backed up by last years and this years ladder postion after round 11. Of our first 11 games we've played Sydney, the *, Port, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood who all sit in the top 8.

The percentage is 6% better and even though we've only won one more game than last season it easily could've been 3-4 with a bit of luck + composure. It's never a given but come next season I'd like to think we win the blown games against the *, Collingwood and Port and we're right in the mix for finals.

Either way I think we're tracking in the right direction and my hope is that we win at least 6 of our remaining games for the season. That will leave us on 10 wins for the season which would be a 3 game improvement. This is what I feel is the key to luring a free agent or 2.

Remaining games for 2024
Adelaide
GWS
Richmond
West Coast
Geelong
Fremantle
Collingwood
Adelaide
GWS
Carlton
Richmond
North Melbourne

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Which show is that from?

Footy furnace

 

[cryptor]

Day is the best of our midfielders by far at releasing the ball at the very last second. He has the uncanny ability to not only draw his direct opponent but also the next before releasing a player into space.

Zero panic.

He used to get caught HTB a fair bit a few years ago but he's in the matrix now.

100% this.

So much of our struggles before he returned could be put down to the handballing to teammates under pressure. We treated the ball like a hot potato that no one wanted to be caught holding for more than a moment and it was leading to rushed skill execution and predictable ball movement in tight.

Day has so much composure with the ball and seems to have a plan or can find an option in any situation. And when he doesn’t have either of these things he can bust out the dance moves to create a bit more time
and space. Disco Day!

Seriously underrated player for the impact he has. Makes those around him better.

 

[peetoo]

IMO we have taken a step in the right direction this season which is backed up by last years and this years ladder postion after round 11. Of our first 11 games we've played Sydney, the *, Port, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood who all sit in the top 8.

The percentage is 6% better and even though we've only won one more game than last season it easily could've been 3-4 with a bit of luck + composure. It's never a given but come next season I'd like to think we win the blown games against the *, Collingwood and Port and we're right in the mix for finals.

Either way I think we're tracking in the right direction and my hope is that we win at least 6 of our remaining games for the season. That will leave us on 10 wins for the season which would be a 3 game improvement. This is what I feel is the key to luring a free agent or 2.

Remaining games for 2024
Adelaide
GWS
Richmond
West Coast
Geelong
Fremantle
Collingwood
Adelaide
GWS
Carlton
Richmond
North Melbourne

View attachment 2002306

The rest of the season is entirely up to us and our form line. All winnable. Maybe GWS away and carlton the hardest.

Beating some mid range teams now which was where we slipped up last year

 

[The Chad and I]

8-10 wins will be a good season for us.
We've found some very good players.
Playing style coming together.
Team structure filling out.

 

[Brishawk]

An update on our statistical progression this year:

You can see that while across the season we are still below average in attack, post round 7 we show an approximately horizontal trend, which implies we are performing around league average v our opponent. We should a fairly big up turn at a similar point of the season last year. Let's see how we go over the next few rounds.


Our past three weeks have shown a clear upward trend, which implies we have performed above average v our opponent relative to the rest of the league. This is very exciting and also very noticeable watching the game. The opposition have less time to execute and are not hurting us on the turnover as easily. And this means we get the ball back in better field positions, which helps us attack. We are getting very close to performing at league average level across the whole season tp date on average if we can keep this effort up for another few weeks.


We are starting to put a gap between ourselves and the bottom 3 on the ladder and showing overall similar performance to saints but with a better balance between attack and defence. Essendon continue to defy their form with their ladder position (they owe a lot to a favourable draw). Sydney's form is hot, hot hot! North and Richmond are absolute trash right now...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[The hands of stone]

An update on our statistical progression this year:

You can see that while across the season we are still below average in attack, post round 7 we show an approximately horizontal trend, which implies we are performing around league average v our opponent. We should a fairly big up turn at a similar point of the season last year. Let's see how we go over the next few rounds.
View attachment 2002516

Our past three weeks have shown a clear upward trend, which implies we have performed above average v our opponent relative to the rest of the league. This is very exciting and also very noticeable watching the game. The opposition have less time to execute and are not hurting us on the turnover as easily. And this means we get the ball back in better field positions, which helps us attack. We are getting very close to performing at league average level across the whole season tp date on average if we can keep this effort up for another few weeks.
View attachment 2002519

We are starting to put a gap between ourselves and the bottom 3 on the ladder and showing overall similar performance to saints but with a better balance between attack and defence. Essendon continue to defy their form with their ladder position (they owe a lot to a favourable draw). Sydney's form is hot, hot hot! North and Richmond are absolute trash right now...
View attachment 2002522

Swans profile is ridiculous , they are as good as North are bad !

 

[cryptor]

An update on our statistical progression this year:

You can see that while across the season we are still below average in attack, post round 7 we show an approximately horizontal trend, which implies we are performing around league average v our opponent. We should a fairly big up turn at a similar point of the season last year. Let's see how we go over the next few rounds.
View attachment 2002516

Our past three weeks have shown a clear upward trend, which implies we have performed above average v our opponent relative to the rest of the league. This is very exciting and also very noticeable watching the game. The opposition have less time to execute and are not hurting us on the turnover as easily. And this means we get the ball back in better field positions, which helps us attack. We are getting very close to performing at league average level across the whole season tp date on average if we can keep this effort up for another few weeks.
View attachment 2002519

We are starting to put a gap between ourselves and the bottom 3 on the ladder and showing overall similar performance to saints but with a better balance between attack and defence. Essendon continue to defy their form with their ladder position (they owe a lot to a favourable draw). Sydney's form is hot, hot hot! North and Richmond are absolute trash right now...
View attachment 2002522

Would it be possible to get that last plot with tails showing each teams cumulative z-score over time?

 

[hawkman]

3. Red time goals (aside from one painful game) have swung around and we are the ones kicking them. Big difference

First time this year we kicked the last goal in every quarter.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

First time this year we kicked the last goal in every quarter.

That is such a good weird stat.
The Gunston goal just before half time was so important.

 

[Brishawk]

Would it be possible to get that last plot with tails showing each teams cumulative z-score over time?

Would be dangerously close to the squiggle then haha

I have an idea. Will try it out tomorrow.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Day is the best of our midfielders by far at releasing the ball at the very last second. He has the uncanny ability to not only draw his direct opponent but also the next before releasing a player into space.

Zero panic.

He used to get caught HTB a fair bit a few years ago but he's in the matrix now.

He always seems to get him arms up and his hands free when he's getting tackled, so he can get the handball off. This is such a handy skill to be able to execute regularly.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

An update on our statistical progression this year:

You can see that while across the season we are still below average in attack, post round 7 we show an approximately horizontal trend, which implies we are performing around league average v our opponent. We should a fairly big up turn at a similar point of the season last year. Let's see how we go over the next few rounds.
View attachment 2002516

Our past three weeks have shown a clear upward trend, which implies we have performed above average v our opponent relative to the rest of the league. This is very exciting and also very noticeable watching the game. The opposition have less time to execute and are not hurting us on the turnover as easily. And this means we get the ball back in better field positions, which helps us attack. We are getting very close to performing at league average level across the whole season tp date on average if we can keep this effort up for another few weeks.
View attachment 2002519

We are starting to put a gap between ourselves and the bottom 3 on the ladder and showing overall similar performance to saints but with a better balance between attack and defence. Essendon continue to defy their form with their ladder position (they owe a lot to a favourable draw). Sydney's form is hot, hot hot! North and Richmond are absolute trash right now...
View attachment 2002522

Amazing to see where Essendon are on the graph in comparison to their ladder position. Same too with the Doggies.

 

[hawkman]

That is such a good weird stat.
The Gunston goal just before half time was so important.

I feel the Gunston one before 3/4 time was even more important after Brisbane dominated the 3rd quarter

 

[Simon Crawshay]

He always seems to get him arms up and his hands free when he's getting tackled, so he can get the handball off. This is such a handy skill to be able to execute regularly.

He's a big boy these days. I saw him at the airport close up a couple of weeks ago and if he isn't around 193cm/90kg I'd be very surprised.

That extra size helps to free the arms to handball, just like Bont does.

 

[SSSSSS]

Amazing to see where Essendon are on the graph in comparison to their ladder position. Same too with the Doggies.

Squiggle doesn't rate them. Squiggle also has us off the bottom 4 now.

Norf are off the page bad.

 

[Brishawk]

Would it be possible to get that last plot with tails showing each teams cumulative z-score over time?

Same chart as above but with a line connecting where teams were 3 and 6 weeks ago.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Same chart as above but with a line connecting where teams were 3 and 6 weeks ago.

View attachment 2002887

Nice graph. The most intriguing insight, IMO, is how little movement there is. Norf, Richmond and Syndey are the only teams to make big moves in form. Carlton, Doggies and Geelong have done better than normal. The Saints and Fro have deteriorated almost equally, which is unexpected to me.

I'm surprised Geelong has improved in form over the last six weeks. Despite losing four in a row, they have outperformed the competition offensively by quite a bit while only conceding a little ground defensively, perhaps showing that while results are the only stat that really matters, results don't really paint the picture on performance. Essendon demonstrates that truism as well.