Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club

[Brishawk]

I thought I'd take a look to see if there was a substantial improvement in performance between the pre and post bye that was detectable in our for and against.

There is some reasonably clear improvement in both for and against through the course of the year. The linear trend lines finally cross over late in the season.


Points For: I wouldn't be willing to suggest there was a structural break before and after the bye. It looks more or less a continuation of improvement. The shift in trend suggests we dropped down our scoring impact but that is largely due to two outliers.


Points Against: A little more evidence of a structural break. In watching games, we didn't give up as many howler turnovers as we had in the first year, which would no doubt have benefited our points against first but likely had a flow on effect on points for.


What does this mean for Sam?
Assuming we don't regress over the off season (possibly a strong assumption!), Sam will need to build on the improved defensive ability and get players to execute attacking plays with greater efficiency. I think part of this will be enabling our better ball users (Day, Scrimshaw etc.) to deliver the ball inside fifty more. How we do that, will be fascinating to watch

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

You're equating how often we handballed each season to the totality of a game plan?
And you're suggesting Clarko needed to go because he couldn't get the boys going for the first quarter of our games?

Ok. We definitely see things differently, but that's cool.

in general, not just the 1st quarters, but there was clearly a disconnect between the amount of pressure we needed to apply as a low-skill team to what we dished up each week for large parts of the season

and our midfield coaching and structures were clearly the worst in the comp

 

[burner1]

I don’t think it’s controversial to say Clarko generally leaned towards more conservative, defensive game plans. The last few years we were hard to score against but struggled to score. Some of it was lack of talent but also approach.

Mitchell may tweak a few things for a better offensive / defensive balance. The more ‘modern’ game styles seem to have a better balance of attack. Won’t go full Teague, but could mean we play a slightly more attractive style.

Could take a few years for it to take shape - both for players to adjust, tweaks to be made and also to get the right personnel.

 

[burner1]

in general, not just the 1st quarters, but there was clearly a disconnect between the amount of pressure we needed to apply as a low-skill team to what we dished up each week for large parts of the season

and our midfield coaching and structures were clearly the worst in the comp

Don’t buy this midfield coaching argument. Unless you believe Clarkson completely lost it do you reckon he’d cop poor midfield coaching? Sam Mitchell previously looked after mids as well. Despite his detractors on these boards mccrae was happy to take Bolton to pies. The big change will be personnel (eg Nash and Jai) to give us a better balance. Clarkson was pretty stubborn on selection and reckon this was bigger issue in midfield.

 

[Jazzfan]

I thought I'd take a look to see if there was a substantial improvement in performance between the pre and post bye that was detectable in our for and against.

There is some reasonably clear improvement in both for and against through the course of the year. The linear trend lines finally cross over late in the season.
View attachment 1239033

Points For: I wouldn't be willing to suggest there was a structural break before and after the bye. It looks more or less a continuation of improvement. The shift in trend suggests we dropped down our scoring impact but that is largely due to two outliers.
View attachment 1239035

Points Against: A little more evidence of a structural break. In watching games, we didn't give up as many howler turnovers as we had in the first year, which would no doubt have benefited our points against first but likely had a flow on effect on points for.
View attachment 1239032

What does this mean for Sam?
Assuming we don't regress over the off season (possibly a strong assumption!), Sam will need to build on the improved defensive ability and get players to execute attacking plays with greater efficiency. I think part of this will be enabling our better ball users (Day, Scrimshaw etc.) to deliver the ball inside fifty more. How we do that, will be fascinating to watch

Look at the contested ball and clearance numbers mate. That's the metric.

I went back and looked at our last six weeks, and it's really telling the change in our clearance and contested ball numbers. Outside of the Demons game, and breaking even with the Lions, we won both these areas and at times comfortably (despite ranking bottom four in each across the season).

We also smacked the Swans in both directly post bye. My favourite game of the year.

To me, this shift was a huge reason why we saw a significant spike in form late in the year. Despite missing some of our very best talent.

I can't help but think Sam was a big reason for this, Nash and Newcombe being examples of a shift in focus.

Win the ball at the contest and surge it forward is the game now. With Sam we will finally transition towards it. It's likely also why we are being linked to a number of defensive small forwards.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Don’t buy this midfield coaching argument. Unless you believe Clarkson completely lost it do you reckon he’d cop poor midfield coaching? Sam Mitchell previously looked after mids as well. Despite his detractors on these boards mccrae was happy to take Bolton to pies. The big change will be personnel (eg Nash and Jai) to give us a better balance. Clarkson was pretty stubborn on selection and reckon this was bigger issue in midfield.

personnel played a big part in our midfield woes, but its not the only reason we were so poor in the area. you simply have to look at coaching as being part of the problem on some level

Brishawk has in fact shown a number of video demonstrations where our stoppage structures have been dreadful with players getting sucked into the contest, setting up on the wrong side of the ball defensively/offensively, and not spreading properly in a 50/50 contest

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Look at the contested ball and clearance numbers mate. That's the metric.

I went back and looked at our last six weeks, and it's really telling the change in our clearance and contested ball numbers. Outside of the Demons game, and breaking even with the Lions, we won both these areas and at times comfortably (despite ranking bottom four in each across the season).

We also smacked the Swans in both directly post bye. My favourite game of the year.

To me, this shift was a huge reason why we saw a significant spike in form late in the year. Despite missing some of our very best talent.

I can't help but think Sam was a big reason for this, Nash and Newcombe being examples of a shift in focus.

Win the ball at the contest and surge it forward is the game now. With Sam we will finally transition towards it. It's likely also why we are being linked to a number of defensive small forwards.

this change actually started last year if you look at who we drafted in 2020 (Seamus and Brocky)

 

[Jazzfan]

this change actually started last year if you look at who we drafted in 2020 (Seamus and Brocky)

Eh?

I think you are referring to the defensive forward part in isolation to my entire post mate.

In no way could one say under Clarko we looked to play in the manner I discussed. It was control. Not chaos.

I think it's also important to note that Big Boy not only said we will be more attacking under Sam, he mentioned that Sam will expect us to be tough in the contest. Again, Newcombe and Nash seemingly being players he identified for this.

I'm expecting under Sam we will probably see even numbers at stoppages and not allow the opposition high half forwards to role up and create an extra.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not sure you can have it both ways mate round 1 to 4 we looked good in the AFL. The other teams we played were just sh*t in the VFL and that is the truth

Have it both ways?
The post is responded to was saying that our ball movement in Round 1 and 4 at Box Hill wasn’t great as some sort of evidence of our ball movement not necessarily being good in 2022.
Completely overlooking the rest of box hills year and way of playing.

Not sure why you are overrating vfl games

some of the wins were against absolutely pathetic teams. The vfl isn’t a great guide of anything, sadly. It is a very long way from the AFL. Not ruling out the possibility of Sam improving the playing style and execution at AFL level but let’s have some perspective about what was actually achieved at vfl level.

Wth, Bris? Overating games?

The post I replied to was choosing to identify 2 games out of a total of 10, from very early in the year as evidence of a playing style, like it was the finished product in Round 1. It’s idiotic, and like suggesting clubs play the same way in Round 1 as they are in Round 10.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Eh?

I think you are referring to the defensive forward part in isolation to my entire post mate.

In no way could one say under Clarko we looked to play in the manner I discussed. It was control. Not chaos.

I think it's also important to note that Big Boy not only said we will be more attacking under Sam, he mentioned that Sam will expect us to be tough in the contest. Again, Newcombe and Nash seemingly being players he identified for this.

I'm expecting under Sam we will probably see even numbers at stoppages and not allow the opposition high half forwards to role up and create an extra.

yeah, i was replying to the bolded part, not the rest of ur comment

 

[TheFourPillars]

Have it both ways?
The post is responded to was saying that our ball movement in Round 1 and 4 at Box Hill wasn’t great as some sort of evidence of our ball movement not necessarily being good in 2022.
Completely overlooking the rest of box hills year and way of playing.


Wth, Bris? Overating games?

The post I replied to was choosing to identify 2 games out of a total of 10, from very early in the year as evidence of a playing style, like it was the finished product in Round 1. It’s idiotic, and like suggesting clubs play the same way in Round 1 as they are in Round 10.

The two sides earlier in the year were two of the better sides. What i said was that we as an afl team played well in the first few rounds. If the Afl side could put in good performances earlier in the year so can the vfl side the only difference being we played the better sides in the vfl and those were the games we lost

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Have it both ways?
The post is responded to was saying that our ball movement in Round 1 and 4 at Box Hill wasn’t great as some sort of evidence of our ball movement not necessarily being good in 2022.
Completely overlooking the rest of box hills year and way of playing.


Wth, Bris? Overating games?

The post I replied to was choosing to identify 2 games out of a total of 10, from very early in the year as evidence of a playing style, like it was the finished product in Round 1. It’s idiotic, and like suggesting clubs play the same way in Round 1 as they are in Round 10.

i think the overarching point being made (not specific to your post) is that while Sam may implement a more aggressive strategy regarding ball movement, using the VFL as an indicator probably isn't too reliable because the defensive structures (which is of course designed to prevent fast ball movement in the modern era) are incomparable to the AFL. So it's easier to have a much faster and attractive game in the VFL because the other teams aren't able to stop it anywhere near as well as they can in the AFL

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The two sides earlier in the year were two of the better sides. What i said was that we as an afl team played well in the first few rounds. If the Afl side could put in good performances earlier in the year so can the vfl side the only difference being we played the better sides in the vfl and those were the games we lost

It's debatable we played well as an AFL team in the first few rounds. We stifled Tigers, Cats and Demons for large parts of those games, but in hindsight its arguable that it was really that good considering we had as strong a side as we could have fielded in that period.

Not fully understanding the point you're making though in regards to my post referencing the AFL side.

Clubs generally bed down a style of play or a gameplan over the first month of footy. It's why I've always said that you shouldn't take much notice of the ladder prior to Round 5, but wins are still good if you can get them.
The point I was making though was regarding Box Hill, and that how a side plays at Round 3 is naturally different to how they will be playing at Round 13, as it will be better drilled, more structured, more connected and will have worked through the game plan issues that have been found from time to time during the earlier rounds of the season.

We don't know what exactly we will see Round 1 of 2022 and it it will be any good, but to declare that the ball movement from a Mitchell coached side might not be any good because it wasn't great in Round 1 of 2021 is perplexing.

 

[luciien]

The constant outnumber at stoppages put our midfield under constant pressure. McEvoy and Ceglar have never been great tap ruckmen, so the continued health and development of Reeves is key.

If we drop the +1, winning some hitouts is a good base for having that more attacking style. With Mitchell back to his best, Wingard and Omeara both sound, Nash and Newk providing some depth, our midfield woes might prove shortlived.

 

[Brishawk]

Have it both ways?
The post is responded to was saying that our ball movement in Round 1 and 4 at Box Hill wasn’t great as some sort of evidence of our ball movement not necessarily being good in 2022.
Completely overlooking the rest of box hills year and way of playing.


Wth, Bris? Overating games?

The post I replied to was choosing to identify 2 games out of a total of 10, from very early in the year as evidence of a playing style, like it was the finished product in Round 1. It’s idiotic, and like suggesting clubs play the same way in Round 1 as they are in Round 10.

The vfl is a poor guide. And yes, writing off losses to good teams and suggesting wins later on against weak teams are more relevant is an unreasonable take on vfl form.

 

[Hawkboy62]

I thought I'd take a look to see if there was a substantial improvement in performance between the pre and post bye that was detectable in our for and against.

There is some reasonably clear improvement in both for and against through the course of the year. The linear trend lines finally cross over late in the season.
View attachment 1239033

Points For: I wouldn't be willing to suggest there was a structural break before and after the bye. It looks more or less a continuation of improvement. The shift in trend suggests we dropped down our scoring impact but that is largely due to two outliers.
View attachment 1239035

Points Against: A little more evidence of a structural break. In watching games, we didn't give up as many howler turnovers as we had in the first year, which would no doubt have benefited our points against first but likely had a flow on effect on points for.
View attachment 1239032

What does this mean for Sam?
Assuming we don't regress over the off season (possibly a strong assumption!), Sam will need to build on the improved defensive ability and get players to execute attacking plays with greater efficiency. I think part of this will be enabling our better ball users (Day, Scrimshaw etc.) to deliver the ball inside fifty more. How we do that, will be fascinating to watch

Day has a lovely looking kick but was disappointing this year. He has had an interrupted preparation so I'll give him some slack but I can remember one of his recent matches where 2 late clangers may have cost us the match. Both seemed to be ambitious kicks on the wing. One was oof and the other lead to an opposition mark.

I think Bramble is our best dynamic ball mover as he seems to move well in tand out of raffic as well as having a flat accurate kick. An average of nearly 430m gained is testimony to his effectiveness. Also the CJ/Impey duo are effective because they are often rebounding quickly when the defence is out of position.

We don't yet have a forward line that can hold their own against a reasonable defence, hence even when we get clear centre clearances and kick inside 50 the ball usually is intercepted or rebounds. A Bramble or Wingard 30m pass to an unattended forward is better than a high booming entry by Jaeger. We need another mid with wheels and elite disposal rather than a big bull. One who can take a contested mark and kick goals would seal the deal! Lol.

Day has grown physically compared to the twig we drafted, that most thought would not debut till this year and has the confidence to take the game on. However he needs to temper ambition with a degree of caution. Still I was bagging Scrimshaw for some ambitious switches to the middle last year, and this year he is nailing them. With a full preseason Day may be back to his best.

We have multiple good distributors from the backline when the full gang is assembled. If we can arrange them to work to get we need not have Hartigan attempting switches across the defensive 30m and Frost doesn't have to go for a gallop every time he gets the ball. Late in the season the boys were trying to get the ball in to Bramble's hands, such is the confidence they have in him.

Fairly optimistic about next year. If we tidy up a few errors like pushing in the back when unable to tackle we are instantly a better team. Our excellent late season form would be good for team morale.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The vfl is a poor guide. And yes, writing off losses to good teams and suggesting wins later on against weak teams are more relevant is an unreasonable take on vfl form.

Why do you keep ignoring the context of the argument, and instead talk about wins and losses(form)?

This is about Box Hill's ball movement being the finished product in the first month of the season.

If you're seriously advocating that was the case, I am amazed.

 

[Brishawk]

Why do you keep ignoring the context of the argument, and instead talk about wins and losses(form)?

This is about Box Hill's ball movement being the finished product in the first month of the season.

If you're seriously advocating that was the case, I am amazed.

I’m not ignoring, I think it is not a major consideration against the things I mentioned ie the quality of opposition. No one is arguing the ball movement was the same in all ten games, that is a complete straw man. But the competition doesn’t provide a reliable guide. That is the only thing that matters here. You are overstating the vfl form and won’t even consider all of the games and want to apply a large weight to the later games to discount the early games. Sorry, I’m not buying it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I’m not ignoring, I think it is not a major consideration against the things I mentioned ie the quality of opposition. No one is arguing the ball movement was the same in all ten games, that is a complete straw man. But the competition doesn’t provide a reliable guide. That is the only thing that matters here. You are overstating the vfl form and won’t even consider all of the games and want to apply a large weight to the later games to discount the early games. Sorry, I’m not buying it.

Did you read the post you have quoted?

I have not mentioned form, ONCE.

I have very clearly made the point, numerous times now, my post was in response to one that our ball movement in 2022 might not be great because it wasn’t good in the first month, and that is seriously flawed based on all we know about how much plans change from one week to the next.

 

[Brishawk]

Did you read the post you have quoted?

I have not mentioned form, ONCE.

I have very clearly made the point, numerous times now, my post was in response to one that our ball movement in 2022 might not be great because it wasn’t good in the first month, and that is seriously flawed based on all we know about how much plans change from one week to the next.

Please... you are way off. It wasn't ever suggested by anyone that 'our ball movement in 2022 might not be great because it wasn’t good in the first month'


You are obviously having a very different conversation than the rest of us.

ESC argued BHH ball movement wasn't a reliable guide to what we can expect in the AFL. I argued the same. If you don't like my use of the word form to describe ball movement and generally quality of play then please accept my apologies but I think the quality of the opposition had more to do with the realisation of ball movement in the early rounds than improvement through the course of the season had on the later rounds.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Please... you are way off. It wasn't ever suggested by anyone that 'our ball movement in 2022 might not be great because it wasn’t good in the first month'
View attachment 1239212
View attachment 1239201
You are obviously having a very different conversation than the rest of us.

ESC argued BHH ball movement wasn't a reliable guide to what we can expect in the AFL. I argued the same. If you don't like my use of the word form to describe ball movement and generally quality of play then please accept my apologies but I think the quality of the opposition had more to do with the realisation of ball movement in the early rounds than improvement through the course of the season had on the later rounds.

Bris, we played Casey in Round 1. We played Werribee in Round 4.

ESC responded to Tyler’s post about the difference between Box Hill and Hawthorn, referencing two games fromthe first month of the season.
Anyone worth their salt in footy will tell you that you’re not playing your best footy in Round 1, not are you nailing the gameplan of a new coach within the first month, regardless of the opposition.

If you want to argue a point, don’t ignore the context of it, please.

 

[Brishawk]

Bris, we played Casey in Round 1. We played Werribee in Round 4.

ESC responded to Tyler’s post about the difference between Box Hill and Hawthorn, referencing two games fromthe first month of the season.
Anyone worth their salt in footy will tell you that you’re not playing your best footy in Round 1, not are you nailing the gameplan of a new coach within the first month, regardless of the opposition.

If you want to argue a point, don’t ignore the context of it, please.

But he didn’t compare hawthorn to box hill

 

[burger09]

Our new coach and senior players have already stated there will be a different focus with regards to our game plan.

That's enough for me.

There will be change, that is certain.
Whether it will translate to wins remains to be seen.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

But he didn’t compare hawthorn to box hill

I'm not quite sure what the point of this argument is

to me it seems you're having completely different discussions over different points. I'm not sure anyone is actually disagreeing with anyone haha

 

[toomanysquibs]

Eh?

I think you are referring to the defensive forward part in isolation to my entire post mate.

In no way could one say under Clarko we looked to play in the manner I discussed. It was control. Not chaos.

Again, Newcombe and Nash seemingly being players he identified for this.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but Newcombe and Nash were both Clarko hires. He brought Mitchell back to develop and nurture young talent.

Clarko is responsible for their success, just like Sam is.

This whole delineating what happened last year, from Clarko's reign is honesty just nonsense.

He hired the guy who made those changes, to make those changes.

Heck, Nash was probably only still on the list because Clarko saw the potential in him, and the promise of it all coming together for him. Which it finally did, with a tweak from Sam.

But I do agree, the arrival of those two players made a difference to our stoppage work. As a team it came along just as the development of our insanely attacking and capable back six started to really click.

But those are all Clarko inspired changes.

100 percent it's all Sam from here, and he will continue doing what he'd started and moving in the direction he's shown an inclination toward already.

But in 2021 Clarkson was a coach working with people he hired. He hired them to do what they did. If you're suggesting it was somehow flukey for him, you're ignoring a pretty massive body of work.