Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

[Kurve]

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young

17

Lachie Young

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

220.3

3star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.5

2star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

MG

210.0

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

MG

219.6

4star

charged



Allegedly

 

[31550]

What about no body no parole ?

Parole only matters if you are convicted. He hasn't even stood trial yet. I think he'd be more concerned about firstly whether he is likely to be found guilty at all, then for how long, before even thinking about parole.

 

[Lady O]

Probably school army cadets in why he had the uniform

Video of he neighbour: "From where I am here, we see him coming and going all the time, so when he's got the motor bike and when he used to have the, um army uniform"

 

[Catch]

Parole only matters if you are convicted. He hasn't even stood trial yet. I think he'd be more concerned about firstly whether he is likely to be found guilty at all, then for how long, before even thinking about parole.

What will we learn at his court appearance in August, do you think ? If he does have other priors, could that be brought up ?

 

[31550]

If he holds out until his lawyer sees all the evidence, to do a deal on a manslaughter charge and then tell the family where he left the body, he'll still get the maximum 20 years. It's only slightly better than convicted of murder with no parole but not by much.

I dunno. If he knows for sure he is going down, the prospect of being back on the streets when he is still possibly under 40 and can potentially start a new life is better than getting out when he's too old to get a job etc. Or never.

 

[31550]

What will we learn at his court appearance in August, do you think ? If he does have other priors, could that be brought up ?

Priors definitely not until sentencing if that ever happens. All we are likely to hear in August is a plea and a potential date for the trial to commence ( possibly 4-5 months later).

 

[Kurve]

I dunno. If he knows for sure he is going down, the prospect of being back on the streets when he is still possibly under 40 and can potentially start a new life is better than getting out when he's too old to get a job etc. Or never.

That's very cold, calculated thinking for a 22yo sparkie.

 

[31550]

That's very cold, calculated thinking for a 22yo sparkie.

Well he's had a couple of weeks to think about it with not many distractions.

 

[Catch]

Priors definitely not until sentencing if that ever happens. All we are likely to hear in August is a plea and a potential date for the trial to commence ( possibly 4-5 months later).

I appreciate all your input

 

[31550]

Or he's found guilty and gets the absolute maximum, no parole.

If he is found guilty of murder without a body, the other evidence (which none of us know about) would need to be absolutely irrefutable and compelling. Otherwise the defence could immediately appeal to have the decision set aside with grounds that "no reasonable person could convict beyond reasonable doubt".

There is not even public proof that Samantha is deceased. They will at least need that, surely? And then there is the matter of intent.

I just can't think what it is they have, short of a confession or key witness.

 

[demondavey]

I dunno. If he knows for sure he is going down, the prospect of being back on the streets when he is still possibly under 40 and can potentially start a new life is better than getting out when he's too old to get a job etc. Or never.

There’s no way this bloke is out under 40.

 

[demondavey]

If he is found guilty of murder without a body, the other evidence (which none of us know about) would need to be absolutely irrefutable and compelling. Otherwise the defence could immediately appeal to have the decision set aside with grounds that "no reasonable person could convict beyond reasonable doubt".

There is not even public proof that Samantha is deceased. They will at least need that, surely? And then there is the matter of intent.

I just can't think what it is they have, short of a confession or key witness.

They’ve stated it’s murder so they’d have to have evidence. They really did appear incredibly certain of this.

 

[Bradaire]

If he is found guilty of murder without a body, the other evidence (which none of us know about) would need to be absolutely irrefutable and compelling. Otherwise the defence could immediately appeal to have the decision set aside with grounds that "no reasonable person could convict beyond reasonable doubt".

There is not even public proof that Samantha is deceased. They will at least need that, surely? And then there is the matter of intent.

I just can't think what it is they have, short of a confession or key witness.

possible blood in his vehicle

 

[31550]

They’ve stated it’s murder so they’d have to have evidence. They really did appear incredibly certain of this.

Of course the police believe they have enough evidence to charge with murder or they wouldn't do it.
That doesn't mean they have enough to convict. They can not know that until the trial.
And they are not going to go public with any doubt or concerns. Once they have made the decision to lay charges, they are certainly not going to admit publicly to being anything less than 100% confident.

 

[31550]

There’s no way this bloke is out under 40.

Standard sentence average for murder in Victoria is a little over 20 years. This is before any parole considerations.
The minimum non-parole term for a life sentence is 30 years in Vic, but the court may decide it not in the interests of justice to set such a term.

For manslaughter in Vic it is highly unusual to be sentenced to any more than 15 years (I can't find one in the last 5 years), and most sentences tend to be around 10 years, but this is a very broad category.

 

[BFew]

"From where I am here, we see him coming and going all the time, so when he's got the motor bike and when he used to have the, um army uniform"

Maybe his motorbike was impounded.

 

[demondavey]

Of course the police believe they have enough evidence to charge with murder or they wouldn't do it.
That doesn't mean they have enough to convict. They can not know that until the trial.
And they are not going to go public with any doubt or concerns. Once they have made the decision to lay charges, they are certainly not going to admit publicly to being anything less than 100% confident.

I wonder what the conversion rate is? Charge to conviction? Or close as I think they call it.

 

[Munich]

Someone with a knowledge of the Ballarat Police might be able to give us some insight into whether A. Birrell 42957 would be a mobile Highway Patrol informant or a Speed Camera informant?

It's not some 5 person police station. How on earth would anyone from Ballarat know that unless they knew him personally.

 

[kaiserchief13]

They have publicly stated its murder. Not man slaughter.
They HAVE to have evidence that it was murder or they wouldn’t have arrested him for murder…..

So they cant charge him for murder and still look at collecting more evidence over next few months? If not why not?

 

[Munich]

They have publicly stated its murder. Not man slaughter.
They HAVE to have evidence that it was murder or they wouldn’t have arrested him for murder…..

This guy gets it.

And they have plenty by all accounts.

 

[Kurve]

I dunno. If he knows for sure he is going down, the prospect of being back on the streets when he is still possibly under 40 and can potentially start a new life is better than getting out when he's too old to get a job etc. Or never.

If he does that though, it will look like he's gaming justice, showing zero remorse until he's to benefit from it and they will throw the book at him anyway. If it's manslaughter and he has a story, he needs to tell the police where her body is. Fast now.

 

[31550]

I wonder what the conversion rate is? Charge to conviction? Or close as I think they call it.

92% for serious crimes I believe.

It's not some 5 person police station. How on earth would anyone from Ballarat know that unless they knew him personally.

Someone already answered.

 

[31550]

If he does that though, it will look like he's gaming justice, showing zero remorse until he's to benefit from it and they will throw the book at him anyway. If it's manslaughter and he has a story, he needs to tell the police where her body is. Fast now.

Lol they have pretty much already thrown the book at him. That is why I think it's a standoff. Not much more the cops can do unless they find the body or back down.

What's the incentive for him to tell them where the body is (assuming he even knows) if he's still gonna face a murder rap?

 

[DecorTable]

What solid evidence can there be of a murder without a body? Guessing either her blood found on his belongings or him admitting it to someone?

Not doubting she’s dead, but how are they 100% certain?

 

[Munich]

92% for serious crimes I believe.

Someone already answered.

Yes from a Google search. That wasn't my point.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

So they cant charge him for murder and still look at collecting more evidence over next few months? If not why not?

Maybe they have enough evidence and are just searching for her body now?

I mean if they’ve charged him with murder without a body, they obviously have some pretty damning evidence.
Im sure if they come across more evidence they will obviously use it.
But they’ve said their main focus is now on finding the body.

The way it’s all been worded by the police - ie targeted attack, murder, not looking for any other suspects - that certainly says to me that they have got undeniable evidence that pins him to the crime.
They have to or else they wouldn’t say it.