Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

[Kurve]

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young

17

Lachie Young

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

220.3

3star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.5

2star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

MG

210.0

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

MG

219.6

4star

charged



Allegedly

 

[Spectrix]

Has anyone seen the roundabout video? It allegedly shows S at 06.05 on the morning she didnt return home

Source?

 

[Terrafirma]

I read the article. It mentions her position and the distance from her home.
I can't see anywhere that it states anything about her speed, pace or heartrate.

Like I said, the above data is how I suspected that police would have known that she was dead, but I don't recall it being stated anywhere.

The Police are not releasing exact specifics on anything in regards to this case for tactical reasons. But you can read between the lines sometimes. It has been stated many times within this thread perhaps as a discussion topic. If a digital forensics analyst talks about it and tells you that's what Police will be looking at then I really don't understand your scepticism. Time to move on.

 

[31550]

The Police are not releasing exact specifics on anything in regards to this case for tactical reasons. But you can read between the lines sometimes. It has been stated many times within this thread perhaps as a discussion topic. If a digital forensics analyst talks about it and tells you that's what Police will be looking at then I really don't understand your scepticism. Time to move on.

It's all there in the quote. We just need to separate fact from opinion:

"Former Australia Federal Police officer and professor of cybersecurity, Nigel Phair told Liz Hayes on Channel 9's series Under Investigation with Liz Hayes he believes an "anomaly" or "change in the behaviour" of Murphy's data pattern may have prompted authorities to return to the Mount Clear area last Friday."

Phair said he believes an anomaly or change in the behaviour may have prompted authorities to return to Mt Clear.

It's an opinion, albeit an 'expert' opinion. It doesn't say there definitely was an anomaly. He doesn't say that he knows that is the reason for police returning to Mt Clear. He is just giving us an opinion as to why they may have done this. He is an expert in cybersecurity, not necessarily an expert in police practice or murder investigations, or even the law.

 

[mrskafoops]

I personally think it's looking pretty bad for POS. And the timing of the media announcing that he has retained a high-profile lawyer just after the phone being found, is that really just co-incidence? Sure, it might be, but we also can't say that it isn't. My money is on POS having dug himself into a massive hole and either he or his family have retained this barrister to get the best possible outcome for him.

 

[jason_recliner]

It's all there in the quote. We just need to separate fact from opinion:

"Former Australia Federal Police officer and professor of cybersecurity, Nigel Phair told Liz Hayes on Channel 9's series Under Investigation with Liz Hayes he believes an "anomaly" or "change in the behaviour" of Murphy's data pattern may have prompted authorities to return to the Mount Clear area last Friday."

Phair said he believes an anomaly or change in the behaviour may have prompted authorities to return to Mt Clear.

It's an opinion, albeit an 'expert' opinion. It doesn't say there definitely was an anomaly. He doesn't say that he knows that is the reason for police returning to Mt Clear. He is just giving us an opinion as to why they may have done this. He is an expert in cybersecurity, not necessarily an expert in police practice or murder investigations, or even the law.

In my opinion, the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security, a former Australian Federal Police Detective Superintendent, who lead investigations at the Australian High Tech Crime Centre for four years, may know a lot about police practice, and the law, including application of information technology to investigations.

 

[31550]

I personally think it's looking pretty bad for POS. And the timing of the media announcing that he has retained a high-profile lawyer just after the phone being found, is that really just co-incidence? Sure, it might be, but we also can't say that it isn't. My money is on POS having dug himself into a massive hole and either he or his family have retained this barrister to get the best possible outcome for him.

Causation vs coincidence?

Just because the engagement of Galbally appears to have happened around the same time as the phone was located, does not mean that one event caused the other.

But let's assume for a moment that the two events are related:
One assumption is that POS had an "Oh Shit" moment and desperately called, "Send Lawyers Guns and Money!".
But another equally possible scenario is that POS thought, "Great, they've found the phone, which might help prove my innocence, because I didn't put the phone in the dam, so I'll hire a top legal team to make sure the phone is properly and legally examined, and any fingerprints and DNA are extracted, and that this data is made available to my defence team."

I'm not saying either case is correct - there could be other explanations, but the point is any assumptions we make are fatally flawed.

 

[31550]

In my opinion, the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security, a former Australian Federal Police Detective Superintendent, who lead investigations at the Australian High Tech Crime Centre for four years, may know a lot about police practice, and the law, including application of information technology to investigations.

Yes, and as a cyber expert, when asked the question, "Why do you think police may have returned to Mt Clear?" , possibly his natural and immediate response was, "Well, maybe they found some data anomaly which indicated a critical event occurred there!" (putting on his cyber hat)

If they had asked a forensic pathologist the response might have been, "Well, maybe they found something that looked like blood on one of the trees!"

If they had asked a man in the street, the response might have been, "Well, maybe because that's where Samantha usually went on her runs!"

Our opinions are coloured by our personal inclinations, knowledge and beliefs. They are just opinions.

My opinion only.

 

[DeliveryProblems]

"Former Australia Federal Police officer and professor of cybersecurity, Nigel Phair told Liz Hayes on Channel 9's series Under Investigation with Liz Hayes he believes an "anomaly" or "change in the behaviour" of Murphy's data pattern may have prompted authorities to return to the Mount Clear area last Friday."

Forgive me for being cynical. An ex-cop theorizing to Channel 9's Under Investigation is about as solid as my aforementioned theory.

Yes. Definitely a Captain Obvious quote.

 

[Underarrest_]

Yes, and as a cyber expert, when asked the question, "Why do you think police may have returned to Mt Clear?" , possibly his natural and immediate response was, "Well, maybe they found some data anomaly which indicated a critical event occurred there!" (putting on his cyber hat)

If they had asked a forensic pathologist the response might have been, "Well, maybe they found something that looked like blood on one of the trees!"

If they had asked a man in the street, the response might have been, "Well, maybe because that's where Samantha usually went on her runs!"

Our opinions are coloured by our personal inclinations, knowledge and beliefs. They are just opinions.

My opinion only.

Yes but UI didn’t bring someone off the street to discuss an expert opinion.

 

[31550]

Yes but UI didn’t bring someone off the street to discuss an expert opinion.

Someone off the street would probably not provide the narrative they wanted.
When an expert witness is used, the interviewer knows exactly what their response is going to be to their questions.

 

[Underarrest_]

Someone off the street would probably not provide the narrative they wanted.
When an expert witness is used, the interviewer knows exactly what their response is going to be to their questions.

Yes, an expert will give an expert opinion based on their expertise.
He hasn’t assumed what type of evidence can be retrieved but rather given an expert opinion on what type of data can be retrieved.

 

[Catch]

In my opinion, the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security, a former Australian Federal Police Detective Superintendent, who lead investigations at the Australian High Tech Crime Centre for four years, may know a lot about police practice, and the law, including application of information technology to investigations.

Is there any way they can track SM watch, where it is etc ? Which supposedly is still missing. Now they have her phone as well.

 

[jason_recliner]

Yes, and as a cyber expert, when asked the question, "Why do you think police may have returned to Mt Clear?" , possibly his natural and immediate response was, "Well, maybe they found some data anomaly which indicated a critical event occurred there!" (putting on his cyber hat)

If they had asked a forensic pathologist the response might have been, "Well, maybe they found something that looked like blood on one of the trees!"

If they had asked a man in the street, the response might have been, "Well, maybe because that's where Samantha usually went on her runs!"

You'll need to follow a narrative here.

Forgive me for being cynical. An ex-cop theorizing to Channel 9's Under Investigation is about as solid as my aforementioned theory.

The theory of the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security, a former Australian Federal Police Detective Superintendent, who lead investigations at the Australian High Tech Crime Centre for four years, is not "about as solid as my aforementioned theory." It's far more likely to align with reality, and hence is far more valuable.

When an expert witness is used, the interviewer knows exactly what their response is going to be to their questions.

No, an interviewer doesn't know exactly what the response of the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security is going to be. If they knew that, they could be the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security.

That's why we seek the ideas and opinions of people with more intelligence/experience/qualifications than you.

 

[Terrafirma]

Is there any way they can track SM watch, where it is etc ? Which supposedly is still missing. Now they have her phone as well.

Not now that its flat or out of range with her phone. Some watches include cellular so makes it easier. But once the battery is flat its not trackable as zi understand it. Dogs are the best bet.

 

[31550]

No, an interviewer doesn't know exactly what the response of the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security is going to be. If they knew that, they could be the Director — Enterprise at the UNSW Institute for Cyber Security.

That's why we seek the ideas and opinions of people with more intelligence/experience/qualifications than you.

You don't seem to understand how television talk shows work. Networks don't put randoms on their shows, and they don't put anyone on unless they have a pretty good idea what they are going to say, and how it will weave into the planned narrative. The interview then goes through a process of selective editing, and we end up seeing and hearing exactly what the producers want, and only that.

 

[Underarrest_]

You don't seem to understand how television talk shows work. Networks don't put randoms on their shows, and they don't put anyone on unless they have a pretty good idea what they are going to say, and how it will weave into the planned narrative. The interview then goes through a process of selective editing, and we end up seeing and hearing exactly what the producers want, and only that.

Police work with media programs and it’s not to suit the programs narrative but rather source out information based on what the police will allow with the aim to sought information about a crime, suspect and/or witnesses.

 

[gymjam]

There was an October 2023 accident? I thought it was just a DUI charge? Where can we find the details of this accident? Another vehicle involved?

Here is one article that states "He has been charged with drink driving, drug driving and careless driving." https://7news.com.au/news/samantha-...iving-offences-over-crash-in-2023--c-14530794

And another article which states similar but with info from a 'friend'

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/crime/samantha-murphys-alleged-killer-patrick-stephenson-22-hit-with-fresh-charges-over-alleged-drug-and-drink-driving/news-story/83ad7f475bc8163afd68725010b9404a

"Stephenson allegedly failed a roadside breath test after highway patrol attended the scene of the motorcycle crash, where the 22-year-old had allegedly collided with a tree.

Stephenson allegedly failed a drug test back at Ballarat Police station.

A Victoria Police spokesperson confirmed the additional charges laid against Stephenson on Friday morning.

"Police from Ballarat Highway Patrol charged a 22-year-old man on summons with drink and drug driving, as well as careless driving, following a single vehicle (motorcycle) collision in Ballarat on 1 October, 2023." the spokespersons said.

A former friend of Stephenson told the Herald Sun the crash occurred following an AFL Grand Final gathering that kicked off in the afternoon and ran late into the night."

And this Youtube video allegedly shows POS on a 'bender' the night prior to Samantha's disappearance - shocking footage imo. What a state he appears to be in! .

Makes me wonder what time he finished 'his night' and whether he had driven back to Buninyong or stayed in town somewhere - maybe parked up in his vehicle?

 

[BomberManU]

And this Youtube video allegedly shows POS on a 'bender' the night prior to Samantha's disappearance - shocking footage imo. What a state he appears to be in! .

Makes me wonder what time he finished 'his night' and whether he had driven back to Buninyong or stayed in town somewhere - maybe parked up in his vehicle?

That's not quite right - the footage is from a month before SM went missing.

 

[gymjam]

Here is a case that was solved (in part) by an app on a iphone! Quite an amazing story.

 

[gymjam]

That's not quite right - the footage is from a month before SM went missing.

I can only go on what the Channel 7 report stated. Are you able to offer any information as to what date you say this 'bender' occurred? Is it known where POS was on the Saturday night prior to Samantha's disappearance?

 

[BomberManU]

I can only go on what the Channel 7 report stated. Are you able to offer any information as to what date you say this 'bender' occurred? Is it known where POS was on the Saturday night prior to Samantha's disappearance?

The report stated that the footage in the story was from a month prior.

 

[31550]

I can only go on what the Channel 7 report stated. Are you able to offer any information as to what date you say this 'bender' occurred? Is it known where POS was on the Saturday night prior to Samantha's disappearance?

Zervos (CH7) says 'it's alleged the 22YO was on a bender' at a Ballarat nightclub the night before Samantha went missing.
Alleged by who? She doesn't say. It's certainly alleged by some in this forum. But was anyone actually there? Has one single person from the Ballarat nightclub come forward and stated publicly they saw POS there on that night on a bender? It seems like if this actually happened there would be at least be one eye-witness come forward to confirm it for us. Can Ch7 tell us the name of the nightclub? Did CH7 go to the nightclub and interview the manager or staff? What about CCTV footage from the nightclub (they all have cameras these days) - where is the footage showing POS at the nightclub on a bender?

 

[mrskafoops]

Do the police pose as people on these forums? There is someone on a different forum that is putting out all sorts of inside info re the case, little bits and pieces. I messaged them with a question, and they said they are happy to answer as long as I can give up some info about the case first, that isn't speculative.

 

[mrskafoops]

Zervos (CH7) says 'it's alleged the 22YO was on a bender' at a Ballarat nightclub the night before Samantha went missing.
Alleged by who? She doesn't say. It's certainly alleged by some in this forum. But was anyone actually there? Has one single person from the Ballarat nightclub come forward and stated publicly they saw POS there on that night on a bender? It seems like if this actually happened there would be at least be one eye-witness come forward to confirm it for us. Can Ch7 tell us the name of the nightclub? Did CH7 go to the nightclub and interview the manager or staff? What about CCTV footage from the nightclub (they all have cameras these days) - where is the footage showing POS at the nightclub on a bender?

Didn't the police say they had CCTV of him from the night before?

 

[31550]

Do the police pose as people on these forums? There is someone on a different forum that is putting out all sorts of inside info re the case, little bits and pieces. I messaged them with a question, and they said they are happy to answer as long as I can give up some info about the case first, that isn't speculative.

I worry about a police force which has to rely on forums like this to do their job for them.
To answer your question, there are many here 'posing as people'