Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young charged



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If he is found guilty of murder without a body, the other evidence (which none of us know about) would need to be absolutely irrefutable and compelling. Otherwise the defence could immediately appeal to have the decision set aside with grounds that "no reasonable person could convict beyond reasonable doubt".

There is not even public proof that Samantha is deceased. They will at least need that, surely? And then there is the matter of intent.

I just can't think what it is they have, short of a confession or key witness.
This is the thing that’s interesting to me for this case.
The cops have charged him with murder. From my understanding, and I might be wrong, but the DPP doesn’t allow police to ‘charge with random offence’ to gain leverage.
Often, it’s the DPP that says, ‘nice idea, but you [detective] don’t have the evidence to build a supporting case’ … which often leads to no charges at all.

So, it would seem that police AND the DPP think there is a murder case which they can win [the DPP can’t just burn public funds on random un-winnable cases).

Beyond that, there are only guesses on what they have which would likely include:
  • witness testimony
  • physical evidence (in this case, less the body itself)
  • video footage of the actual event (trail camera? His personal footage? Victim’s phone? Who knows?)
  • a bunch of circumstantial evidence (phone pings and much of the other stuff which has been discussed)

Whatever the police have, the DPP believes it’s a winnable murder case (which may or may not be a correct assumption, but that’s what the trial determines).
 
This is the thing that’s interesting to me for this case.
The cops have charged him with murder. From my understanding, and I might be wrong, but the DPP doesn’t allow police to ‘charge with random offence’ to gain leverage.
Often, it’s the DPP that says, ‘nice idea, but you [detective] don’t have the evidence to build a supporting case’ … which often leads to no charges at all.

So, it would seem that police AND the DPP think there is a murder case which they can win [the DPP can’t just burn public funds on random un-winnable cases).

Beyond that, there are only guesses on what they have which would likely include:
  • witness testimony
  • physical evidence (in this case, less the body itself)
  • video footage of the actual event (trail camera? His personal footage? Victim’s phone? Who knows?)
  • a bunch of circumstantial evidence (phone pings and much of the other stuff which has been discussed)

Whatever the police have, the DPP believes it’s a winnable murder case (which may or may not be a correct assumption, but that’s what the trial determines).
In Victoria, the police have authority to lay charges without directly engaging DPP/OPP when they believe they have sufficient evidence. The decision to prosecute rests with OPP/DPP. After charges are laid, cases are referred to OPP/DPP for review, who will then assess the evidence and determine whether to proceed. I don't believe this has been done yet in this case. It can take considerable time from the time charges are laid until the decision to prosecute is made.
 

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But do we even know for sure that he was that way affected?

The story doing the rounds initially was said to be that he was on ‘a bender’ the Sat night before, and it was accompanied by a video of supposed drug taking.

That’s since been amended to say that supposed ‘drug taking’ occurrence was in January.

Who knows whether there was a’bender’ for POS on night of 3rd Feb.

The frustrating thing about the whole dreadfully sad situation, is that we Know Nothing, other than that Samantha has passed & POS has been charged with her murder.

Jmo.
they have said he was housesitting with his GF at the time
 
Surely she wasn’t IN his vehicle when / IF he was picked up by highway patrol !!!! Maybe the officer didn’t recognise until later ??
Would handheld front-on speed camera pick up occupants ?
If SM was in the car, surely she would have been in the boot, and not visible to any potential officers/cameras
 
If SM was in the car, surely she would have been in the boot, and not visible to any potential officers/cameras

We don't know for sure if there's any connection, if it was Patrick Orren or another Patrick Stephenson, when this person was pulled over by Highway Patrol or even what kind of vehicle he was driving, if we know a ute was seized by the police.
 
This is the thing that’s interesting to me for this case.
The cops have charged him with murder. From my understanding, and I might be wrong, but the DPP doesn’t allow police to ‘charge with random offence’ to gain leverage.
Often, it’s the DPP that says, ‘nice idea, but you [detective] don’t have the evidence to build a supporting case’ … which often leads to no charges at all.

So, it would seem that police AND the DPP think there is a murder case which they can win [the DPP can’t just burn public funds on random un-winnable cases).

Beyond that, there are only guesses on what they have which would likely include:
  • witness testimony
  • physical evidence (in this case, less the body itself)
  • video footage of the actual event (trail camera? His personal footage? Victim’s phone? Who knows?)
  • a bunch of circumstantial evidence (phone pings and much of the other stuff which has been discussed)

Whatever the police have, the DPP believes it’s a winnable murder case (which may or may not be a correct assumption, but that’s what the trial determines).

Doesn’t work like that in Victoria but do I think the police have some or all of what you’ve listed. There’s no way they would have charged without something pretty strong.
 
The threshold of proof for a conviction for murder is pretty high.
The prosecution need to prove (beyond reasonable doubt) that
  • the accused caused the death of the person
  • they did so deliberately, not accidentally
  • they did so with 'relevant murderous intention' (that is, with intention to kill or at least seriously injure) - this is often the hardest to prove
  • they did so without any legal excuse or justification (e.g. self-defence)

But also, note that in Victoria a person found not guilty of murder may be found guilty of manslaughter. (It's not all or nothing!)
 
I wonder if he might’ve switched her phone off out at Mount Clear, then later on wanted to get into it for some reason, maybe even to ID her, if he didn’t know who she was? So maybe he turned it back on later that afternoon only to find it was password protected (or fingerprint or face ID etc), and not being able to get into it, switched it off again - but not before turning it on made it connect to a tower, albeit briefly.

Could that explain a potential absence of pings between the rough time the confrontation happened, and the supposed 5pm ping?

I think that’s a reasonable assumption.

At Sunday 5pm it wasn’t know to the general public that she was missing.

Because he was unable to get any information from the news, I imagined he turned on the phone to see if people had missed her. Had people being sending texts and ringing her phone?
 
There was hope he'd lead the police to where she was some time soon but I just looked back and he's been in custody for two weeks. The odds he'll say anything at all are getting longer with each day that passes.
Twisting Abraham Lincoln's quote but maybe better to remain silent and be thought guilty than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt?
 

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I think that’s a reasonable assumption.

At Sunday 5pm it wasn’t know to the general public that she was missing.

Because he was unable to get any information from the news, I imagined he turned on the phone to see if people had missed her. Had people being sending texts and ringing her phone?

There is no confirmation that the ping happened at 5pm. The police won't confirm, so it could have happened earlier
 
Some interesting information in this article on phone data.

So, did the accused go out without his phone or watch? Or are investigators still working on it? If he didn't have either with him when Samantha was killed, moved and dumped, that could go to premeditation.

'Phone data was a major factor in the case of Ballarat woman Kobie Parfitt who disappeared in April 2020. Analysis of a suspect's phone data led investigators to the mine shaft where her body had been dumped.'
 
Just a random question (as always:)) if I’m allowed to bring it up on this thread, but how much evidence did they have on Chris Dawson? I’m not saying I think he’s innocent but I could never understand how that got across the line of beyond reasonable doubt.
I‘m just thinking in relation to this case, it will be interesting if the evidence is overwhelming.

Thread here:

 
There is no confirmation that the ping happened at 5pm. The police won't confirm, so it could have happened earlier
The 5pm ping was reported in the media, but I don't know if there is a reliable source. If it is genuine it doesn't seem to help the police narrative that SM was killed at Mt Clear. They would need an explanation of how her phone pinged in another location (Buninyong ) several hours later. Of course they may allege the accused took the phone within pinging distance of the Buninyong tower at 5pm but how could they prove this? What if the accused could show he wasn't in that area then? The element of reasonable doubt would be raised by the defence. They would say the phone could have been Samantha, still alive. Where is the evidence to the contrary?
 
The 5pm ping was reported in the media, but I don't know if there is a reliable source. If it is genuine it doesn't seem to help the police narrative that SM was killed at Mt Clear. They would need an explanation of how her phone pinged in another location (Buninyong ) several hours later. Of course they may allege the accused took the phone within pinging distance of the Buninyong tower at 5pm but how could they prove this? What if the accused could show he wasn't in that area then? The element of reasonable doubt would be raised by the defence. They would say the phone could have been Samantha, still alive. Where is the evidence to the contrary?
Wasn't there issues that weekend with the different towers in that area being off line for maintenance? I seem to remember this being discussed early on.
 
The 5pm ping was reported in the media, but I don't know if there is a reliable source. If it is genuine it doesn't seem to help the police narrative that SM was killed at Mt Clear. They would need an explanation of how her phone pinged in another location (Buninyong ) several hours later. Of course they may allege the accused took the phone within pinging distance of the Buninyong tower at 5pm but how could they prove this? What if the accused could show he wasn't in that area then? The element of reasonable doubt would be raised by the defence. They would say the phone could have been Samantha, still alive. Where is the evidence to the contrary?

Detective Acting Superintendent Mark Hatt won't confirm
 
Why not? Either there was a ping or there wasn't. Why not confirm?

He was just giving a standard response imo and not wanting to answer on evidentiary details. I'm leaning to the 5.00pm ping information as probably good.
 
In Victoria, the police have authority to lay charges without directly engaging DPP/OPP when they believe they have sufficient evidence. The decision to prosecute rests with OPP/DPP. After charges are laid, cases are referred to OPP/DPP for review, who will then assess the evidence and determine whether to proceed. I don't believe this has been done yet in this case. It can take considerable time from the time charges are laid until the decision to prosecute is made.
Oh, I did not know that. I understood that the DPP/OPP would have some oversight of the type of change being laid up front.
Thanks for clarifying.
 

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Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

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