Analysis Should Melbourne rebuild like Richmond if they struggle in 2025?

[Freomaniac]

Being stuck at the bottom of the ladder for ages is a risk with a deliberate complete rebuild. Something Melbourne fans would already know about (and, yes, it can happen without deliberately going the full rebuild option but accidentally falling into it - speaking as a North fan expecting at least two more bottom six finishes, probably one more bottom two).

Is there a reason to really do that? Yes, it seems some want out, some are nearing their natural end, if things go pear-shaped this year then they probably will next as well and without cleaning out all the experience and having nobody left to lead that already leads to bringing in new high-end talent.

There is such a thing as going too far and not being able to build the new players properly. That risk is perhaps heightened with smaller clubs without the resources to accelerate development. Perhaps favour a refresh, trade out the disgruntled whoa re unlikely to be much help to youngsters learning the level; but a full rebuild often just leads to medium and long term pain and 3-4 attempts before it comes right.

I think rebuilding in this era is harder than any other era.

There is more resources, more money, more professionalism in many areas such as drafting, development and medical and training and recovery.

8 teams make finals from 18 sides. So 10 sides miss out.

When Tassie comes in and a 20th sides is added. Well that is 8 teams in finals and 12 teams miss out. So early picks, especially top 5 picks are a premium.

So it will be common for teams to miss out on finals for 6 or 7 or 8 years in a row.

 

[NetworkNerd]

I think rebuilding in this era is harder than any other era.

There is more resources, more money, more professionalism in many areas such as drafting, development and medical and training and recovery.

8 teams make finals from 18 sides. So 10 sides miss out.

When Tassie comes in and a 20th sides is added. Well that is 8 teams in finals and 12 teams miss out. So early picks, especially top 5 picks are a premium.

So it will be common for teams to miss out on finals for 6 or 7 or 8 years in a row.

The AFL will quickly realise there will be a lot of stale games towards the end of the season. 11th v 14th in round 23 will be a nothing match.

They might do an NBA style play in tournament where 7-10 play for the last 2 spots in the finals. At least if gives more teams a chance

 

[demondavey]

Won in Perth away from the 'G. Last two MCG Grand Final they lost by 96 and 60 respectively in 1988 and 2000.

Which was 37 and 25 years ago….. means nothing. At least we won a GF on a neutral venue.

 

[demondavey]

Melbourne need to do it now. Tasmania will gut the draft and we will literally be in the thick of it when that is happening. We aren’t attracting good senior players under Goodwin. You’re just not coming to Melbourne. All big names go to Carlton or Collingwood. Hawthorn tend to get what they need to win flags as opposed to just luring a huge name like a Judd.

1. Sack Goodwin
2. Get the admin sorted
3. Look to trade out dead wood
4. Try and develop a modern game plan with the young group
5. Start now because it isn’t getting better

 

[Mr Meow]

It's hard to be definitive in February about what we'll do in November. I don't have a crystal ball.

We finished top 4 in 2021, 2022 and 2023. In my opinion, we have more talent now than in those years.

Hopefully, last year was an aberration and let's not forget that no team had ever finished 14th before with 11 wins. But we acknowledge it was a year from hell where nothing went right.

I expect a bounce back year but don't think our age demographic is so old that we'd throw the baby out with the bath water if we don't.

Have you changed your mind now?

 

[Philhawk]

Melbourne need to do it now. Tasmania will gut the draft and we will literally be in the thick of it when that is happening. We aren’t attracting good senior players under Goodwin. You’re just not coming to Melbourne. All big names go to Carlton or Collingwood. Hawthorn tend to get what they need to win flags as opposed to just luring a huge name like a Judd.

1. Sack Goodwin
2. Get the admin sorted
3. Look to trade out dead wood
4. Try and develop a modern game plan with the young group
5. Start now because it isn’t getting better

I quite like some of the young talent Melbourne has.

The absolute key is determining which older players will stay and provide the leadership required through a rebuild. History has shown rebuilds with an experienced group to guide have always done better.

For mine,

Keep:

Gawn
Petracca
Salem
Viney
Langdon
Lever

Make the tough calls on the rest of the older group. Petracca would be a brilliant transitory leader, but his body language suggests he may be done.

 

[Obeanie1]

Melbourne look like they are at the crossroad. Have a good year and they could compete again. But with a poor year and many of their stars starting to age. They may want to sell the farm and get what they can to fast tract their rebuild before future drafts get compromised.

They also have some good talent that looks like they want out.
Pickett is reportedly looking to go west. Petracca looked disgruntled about his injuries from last year and Oliver looks like he wants a sea change to get away from the party/pokie life of inner Melbourne.

So should Melbourne rebuild, maybe with a new coach if things go poorly this year? Should they look to trade players like Pickett, Petracca, Oliver and possibly some of their older players like Lever and May? What sort of picks would they get or should they look for if they trade out these players?

Well considering how successful the Richmond rebuild has worked out then..............

Oh wait...........no one actually knows yet if Richmonds rebuild strategy will work.

And Melbourne has been adding some nice top end talent recently. And has a reasonably balanced list age wise. So not really in the same position as the Richmond list was.

 

[go_the_dockers]

You could probably ask the the same questions about Carlton or Essendon.

If Merrett got you a top 10 pick would you do it?
What about Cripps?

It is a lot easy to commit to a big rebuild, after winning a premiership or 3.

 

[Philhawk]

Well considering how successful the Richmond rebuild has worked out then..............

Oh wait...........no one actually knows yet if Richmonds rebuild strategy will work.

And Melbourne has been adding some nice top end talent recently. And has a reasonably balanced list age wise. So not really in the same position as the Richmond list was.

You are correct, but being stuck in “the middle” is the worst way to rebuild. You can’t assume that all clubs can do a Geelong and rebuild on the fly without top picks.

They need to replenish their list with ~6-8 quality new additions, the question is how and in what timeframe with Tassie fast approaching.

 

[tiger_tough]

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Well considering how successful the Richmond rebuild has worked out then..............

Oh wait...........no one actually knows yet if Richmonds rebuild strategy will work.

And Melbourne has been adding some nice top end talent recently. And has a reasonably balanced list age wise. So not really in the same position as the Richmond list was.

Agree although it's a pretty Captain obvious response. But should they trade out some aging talent like Richmond did? Of course, no two rebuilds are the same.

 

[Obeanie1]

You are correct, but being stuck in “the middle” is the worst way to rebuild. You can’t assume that all clubs can do a Geelong and rebuild on the fly without top picks.

They need to replenish their list with ~6-8 quality new additions, the question is how and in what timeframe with Tassie fast approaching.

They drafted two last year.

And have continued to draft.

They will lose Pickett this year and get another two 1sts plus their own.

Richmond wasted how many 1st rounders trading in Taranto and Hopper? Dees havent made that mistake.

 

[Obeanie1]

Agree although it's a pretty Captain obvious response. But should they trade out some aging talent like Richmond did. Of course, no two rebuilds are the same.

If its so obvious why suggest / ask if Melbourne should follow Richmonds rebuild strategy?

Their lists are are at completely different stages of the cycle.

And as mentioned, the Richmond strategy may well end up like North 10 years ago and the kids start leaving after 2 or 4 years as they get poached by contending sides. And Richmond spend 10 plus years rebuilding. The strategy is unproven.

 

[tiger_tough]

They drafted two last year.

And have continued to draft.

They will lose Pickett this year and get another two 1sts plus their own.

Richmond wasted how many 1st rounders trading in Taranto and Hopper? Dees havent made that mistake.

2

 

[demondavey]

I quite like some of the young talent Melbourne has.

The absolute key is determining which older players will stay and provide the leadership required through a rebuild. History has shown rebuilds with an experienced group to guide have always done better.

For mine,

Keep:

Gawn
Petracca
Salem
Viney
Langdon
Lever

Make the tough calls on the rest of the older group. Petracca would be a brilliant transitory leader, but his body language suggests he may be done.

Agree, Gawn will retire soon I feel. I’d be getting rid of Salem though. Potentially Oliver if Geelong are keen again but Mackie will likely give us pick 48. Langdon I am not seeing leadership in.

 

[Greendogg5]

They drafted two last year.

And have continued to draft.

They will lose Pickett this year and get another two 1sts plus their own.

Richmond wasted how many 1st rounders trading in Taranto and Hopper? Dees havent made that mistake.

Problem for them is I'm pretty sure they don't even have their own first round pick this year.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

If its so obvious why suggest / ask if Melbourne should follow Richmonds rebuild strategy?

Their lists are are at completely different stages of the cycle.

And as mentioned, the Richmond strategy may well end up like North 10 years ago and the kids start leaving after 2 or 4 years as they get poached by contending sides. And Richmond spend 10 plus years rebuilding. The strategy is unproven.

The obvious bit was. It's to early to work out if Richmond's rebuild had worked yet and Melbourne list is in a different position to Richmonds.
I asked a question and you ignored it and made some obvious statements with condescending emojis. At least your second post sort of responded to the questions asked.

 

[chris_h_11]

Tigers timed it perfectly to hit a strong draft that was fairly undiluted. 2025 draft is not as strong, and it sounds that something like Pick 20 might actually get the 40th best player in the list, which is crazy.

2025 is a crap year to bottom out.

 

[big bootaaaaah]

The obvious bit was. It's to early to work out if Richmond's rebuild had worked yet and Melbourne list is in a different position to Richmonds.
I asked a question and you ignored it and made some obvious statements with condescending emojis. At least your second post sort of responded to the questions asked.

Who’s this imposter stealing my av ??

 

[earthworms]

Melbourne’s issues go far deeper than their list

 

[Dazb86]

I quite like some of the young talent Melbourne has.

The absolute key is determining which older players will stay and provide the leadership required through a rebuild. History has shown rebuilds with an experienced group to guide have always done better.

For mine,

Keep:

Gawn
Petracca
Salem
Viney
Langdon
Lever

Make the tough calls on the rest of the older group. Petracca would be a brilliant transitory leader, but his body language suggests he may be done.

Not sure on Petracca. It would be like us making Dunkley captain after trying to bail to Essendon.

 

[1990crow]

Trade Oliver and Petracca. Go full rebuild.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Who’s this imposter stealing my av ??

Clearly my avatars older